lol Believe it or not Abiy asked Farmaajo the same thing. Somalia presdient wants his kilil's out and Ethiopian PM wants kililka out. This is very dangerous for Somalia more than Ethiopia. In Ethiopia they want to reverse the policy that has worked last 10 years and brought quite fast development. It also protected Somalis from being harassed by soldiers from other parts of Ethiopia different culture different faith different everything and feel colonized helpless and humiliated. On Somalia side terrorism increases by virtue of the Somali everywhere being overlorded. Action brings reaction then bigger reaction. This is good indication SFG is finished and counting days till next election/selection. UAE has achieved what it wanted and this time UAE will clean all regions of anything Qatar or Turkey. The deal with Djibouti looks very unlikely to go ahead, deal with Sudan same, but deal with Kenya will go ahead. Are you saying a neighbor Oromo should be better than a far away Tigray? Are you saying a closer Oromo fighting with Somali for trade route and khat route and contraband route control is better than a far away Tigray who will hardly get invlved in this without a Somali friend. Are you saying that someone who historically pushed and pulled with the Somali for control and settling in that area is better than someone from far away. The Oromo will be no.1 enemy of full autonomy of the Somali people. You might have heard it from your friends where many Ethiopians are terrified of the amount of autonomy the Somali have in comparison to even the Oromo. There is a feeling that the Somali when ready will just declare independence and there will be no one to stop him. You have the opposite understanding of what is possible.

My friend, When ever a Somali politician gives up in trying to solve the most important 1..2..3 issues of the country, then talk starts Ethiopia blaming or praising. That has been running for last 3 decades. Tell a Somali politician from the republic " I will take you to Jowhar or Baidoa, you have 30 days to work on nothing but constitution, you will have nothing but clean water and biscuits tea/coffee, no radio not TV no ipad, no contact with Qatar, UAE, Ethiopia, Djibouti, Kenya...." See what they would say. Constitutions are made like that in Ethiopia even districts provincial laws are made like that. As you said it some over enthusiastic Oromo trying to show that an Oromo PM is best for friendship with Somalia. He missed the fact that: Ethiopian PM waited 2 months to visit Somalia that should have been no later than 3rd foreign country to visit. No amount of pie in the sky port economic this or that can cover this failure or if planned this message. Ethiopian PM visits Somalia after doing all that propaganda with UAE that has misunderstanding with Somalia almost same day going there befre he forgets what UAE wants.

Kismayu is in trouble. If Lamu goes ahead and the Ethiopian navy choses as base and Ethiopia Kenya build infrastructure and good roads, Kismayu will never develop except for local use. If Berbera develops and infrastructure with Ethiopia is developed, Basasso will only serve Puntland. Remember distance is no such a big deal since you have to develop all anyway. Each port starting Tajura, Djibouti, Zeila, Berbera, Basasso, Hobyo, Mogadishu....are all in competition with the regions inland behind them. Example kililka benefits more from Berbera than Djibouti and even better from Hobyo and Basasso since the infrastrcture roads will cover more of kililka.

lol Chemistry of confident Jelabiya full money Bedewin seated comfortably and twisted and bent and shoulders squished Ethiopian begging for some of that Jelabiya pocket. It is co-ordinated in America as well. All the papers that recently used to print bad news about Chinese loan have forgotten and moved ON. I guess they won this round. The PM is actually least familiar with Arabs from his experience. If things continue with this Saudi/UAE/Egypt charm offensive, he will start talking arabic next year this time. If all this show business does not start the highway through kililka to Somaliland, then you will know what it was all about? Iran, Yemen, Djibouti, Chinese, Turkey are all targets but which is more important to America, UAE, Saudis, Egypt, Israel are all different.

This is an old map. Maybe 2011 about. Your main point of course stands.

Not to defend anyone here, but actually this has nothing to do with northern Somalia. This is something in Mugadihsu. There are forces in Mugadishu who think a close relations with Oromo is their ticket and they think the Tigray is gone. The Oromo want also to show that they can gain friendship from the Somali more than Tigre. Undermining Kililka also is part of it and undermiing images of kililka in Somalia.

The Image makers are extremely busy in Ethiopia. UAE must be spending a fortune on this. Its everywhere facebook, twitter, TV, Internet. It looks a lot is focused to make Ghelleh feel insecure. They forget that Ghelleh from teen ager to date has seen so many shows and leaders that were made mountain one day mole hole another day. Expect soon Erdogan will come and turn things up side down.

maakhiri1, Do you have those moments where a person is saying something and you listen or better yet hear something completely different, we all do at times. This is one of those. There is so much concerted facebook, TV, twitter campaign about PM Abiy I don't know how much army UAE has hired. Image makers. He was talking about Economic integration. Some Ethiopians including Amhara have been asking, how could we have economic integration with Kenya and not even visit to Somalia that have longest border, largest shared population..etc. His image makers want to show that Abiy can bring the Somali to peace, friendship, economic common market even integration more than Tigre...That is the whole point. And it fell apart before launch. Somebody did not watch the timing. He released literally what was told.

This will continue for some time to come. The Oromo want to control northern and northwestern part of Somali kilil. The trade route. The Oromo want to "kill" two birds the Somali and Hareri in one go. They are close to finding some Somali that will ally with them in the hope that they will get piece of the action. Its a struggle conducted over small, populated and people who have loyalty to different centers. The Amhara ally with the Somali in this case solidly. The Tigray Afar Hareri of course are on Somali side. But the Oromo are big in number, very close even closer to the action than most Somali population. This will go on until the Somali kilil can develop the region and scatter the development. If Berbera comes along, that would be a gift to balance the trade route focus and concentation. Even Khat business is big deal here. Its an economy and needs trade route. Perfect mix for conflict. The whole camaign is focused on Liyu. The Oromo consider Liyu as greatest obstacle and hard to beat. Most Somali think that correcting and reorganizing, or any changes needed are business of the Somali. Liyu is ours. We build it, re-biuld it or even destroy it is all our business. Why should the Oromo lead campaign against Liyu? Big question.

In deed what a surprise. Belated Eid Mubarek and all the best. I have to say, without sounding condescending that galbeedi was simply focused on Tigray. He did not realize the situation is 19th century all over again. Even the sequence is the same. Djibouti first, then Somaliland/Somalia issues, then Eritrea and next Somalia. Ethiopia same role as Menelik no change at all. The Somali same thing all fractured. I hope galbeedi and yourself have seen the light now. PM Abiy schedule was ultimate disrespect for the Somali people in Somalia. That was very bad schedule choice. It's fluid, but very clear. The Saudi and UAE have got what they want from Ethiopia. Not to prevent them operating from Eritrea. America helped great deal with Yamamoto visits, senators, Israel and new government which they had invested a lot on. UAE is rewarding Ethiopia and the operation on Hudeidah is on the way already from Eritrea. UAE has individual battle with Djibouti, America had battle with Djibouti which the Tigray were wrong tool since they would not accept even money to damage Djibouti. They still have enough power and influence to help Djibouti maybe through shared business in corporations. But so far UAE is ahead in a small way. Internally the country is quite in termoil. There is an Ethnic in the south which have conflict with Oromo and they are convinced they need to have own kilil like what the Somali was able to do. They are only a zone and do not have all the tools of a kilil. The Gedeo people asked for self government in Oromo, and the answer was more than 100 killed, more than 300,000 expelled. Amhara are still being evicted from Oromo areas.... The state of Emergency was lifted to show for business and also Oromo and Amhara elites which they thought would prevent them from getting to power. They did not see its benefits which would have benefitted them more. The changes in the Military and Serurity services has not affected Tigray. It has actually made the Amhara very unhappy. Samora would have retired anyway 17 years as chief of staff is a long time. He was replaced by his comrade just 50km distance their hme towns. Security Gen Adem is from Amhara kilil but they are saying he was favourite with Tigray and he is also a Moslem (They hde this but its big reason they don't like). The rest of the middle and lower is the same. The uncknown is what will come of Eritrea. Its the primary wanted base against Iran. Its also now immediately wanted for war in Yemen. Ethiopia and Sudan are under pressure to look the other way or be friends with Eritrea. Egypt might have been involved with the Oromo and will get some concession on schedule of GERD which is very disappointing but survivable. It is irreversible.

In addition what you observe among the Afar and Tigray is the deep rooted conviction that "we have the original the true (orthodox) in both faiths". Therefore you see that they have least influence by American christianity sects or British managed innovations in Islam. Somalis are also gaining this confidence after few decades of wilderness with all kinds of movements.

Brilliant

As the Somali move up in all these countries expect to be target of all kinds. Most people especially in Africa fight by bringing you down to their level or by destroying things. In other countries people compete by building better ones than yours. A shop keeper who could not compete will buy some street gangs and destroy your business rather than competing in other fields that you are weak.

For ports Somalia should focus on Kismayu and Hobyo. The only ones that have competitive advantage for Ethiopia, South Sudan. It also helps Somalia develop road works and side businesses in areas where there is no development. Lamu main competition is just strating. Maybe home for Ethiopian navy. If Eritrean ports come online you can forget most other ports even Djibouti with all this infrastructure will struggle to keep 50%. Ethiopia is quite capable in road work. There are companies that worked in Sudan and Uganda. They have really benefitted from Chinese know how transfer. What Somalia can really compete with small investment is Agriculture to feed all gulf Arabas. That is big business. Every body have to eat. Food business is best. But needs peace and order. Arab countries that used to rely only on Sudan, like Kwait are now developing farms in Ethiopia, even in Tanzania. Somalia has best location and all the ingredients except peace and order.

This is one of your posts where I agree 100%. The only criterion for a government in Somalia should be controlling territory. No progress in that should be thrown out. Let alone industry or big econmy a nomad cannot plan or manage life where to take herd to grassy areas, where there is no public authority or government. And now while Somalia is in this situation the HOA is going through radical changes. The Americans have interrupted the Chinese train of development that was fast speeding just 2 years ago now is moving very slowly. UAE looks like have scored victory and already Turkey, Russia, China are reduced cut to size in Ethiopia Saudi/UAE/Egypt have scored major coup in forcing Ethiopia to allow them run their Yemen war from Eritrea Somalia is not even asked anything. Interest of America, UAE, Saudi, Israel, Egypt, France, Britain, India made it a perfect storm in Ethiopia. Locally the Oromo, Amhara were ready (not together but does not matter). The Amhara have been praying and working for America to finally have friction with Tigray, Djibouti and Sudan and China provided them. America had started warming to Sudan, now that has been scuttled. Now all Sudan, Djibouti, Somalia, Tigray can do is lay low don't stick your neck out. Do other things that do not bring you to attention of Saudi, UAE..they really are most influential in America. What is happening in Ethiopia will not last even couple of years. Already every one is pulling in different direction. Amhara wants autonomy of regions gone fast. Oromo wants regions consolidated further to even greater autonomy. Every side wants to get things they want fast while America is engaged and iron is hot, but not so fast in Ethiopia. PM Abiy should have visited Somalia in the very begining. Its people that matter. No matter how much galbeedi hates Ethiopia he cannot change neighborhood. It is not obvious now, but Ethiopia will pay price for this. Don't step on your neighbor when down. Fight when up and you will be satisfied of your victory your neighbor will accept defeat. But if you hurt somebody when sick will never forget it. If you punch him when healthy and standing he will forget it or will easily forgive you. Again my call is get out of Mugadishu like yesterday go to Jowhar or Baidoa or any small town. Area around government will be cleared fast the locals will take care of it. Put parliament in one of these cities the locals will make sure its secured and peaceful. means you pacified and have order in two provinces. Then its competition to pacify the rest. There is nothing that can be done without constitution. Anything else is waste of time. Every government every parliament since TFG days have been avoiding this question. It takes one year at the most even the slowest pace. How come Egypt is not friend to any country that have Somali people? Somalia, Ethiopia, Djibouti and kenya..coincidence? maybe.

Bravo brave man Tell it like it is. In Africa people fight by bringing down instead of going up. If they cannot be good in trading why not be best farmers, why not be best mechanics, why not be best hoteliers..lots of things to do.

There is relative peace among faiths in Ethiopia. The way it works is Moslems take care of their Wahabis and Chritians take care of their own Wahabis/fanatics with imported sects. No force to be used about faith. Other things people kill each other for tribe, for land, for grass for water well just like in Somalia, but then go to court and government is forceful. Shabab ICU should never have been allowed to use faith for clan politics.

I agree. But even now there are few things that can be done. Through Saudis or some Somali businessmen that have access to Sultans of these enclaves. Or even through some federal states like Puntland. The problem is UAE seems very influential in America. Turkey and Qatar are not in that camp.Maybe try something through Britain or UN rep ..or some senator congressman some shiek or lobyist in Dubai.

We are repeating history, because we are still in the same economic conditions. Camel replaced by SUV for few does not change the way conflicts are solved. A lot more will be repeated the way most are going.

Exactly. If any Somali has issues with IOG this is very wrong time to settle scores. You destroy the whole thing.

I am not surprised only at the speed of things. UAE is trying very hard to punish Djibouti and exclude Qatar from Ethiopia and break Ethiopia Sudan bond. UAE Saudi and Egypt are trying to do war in Yemen from Eritrea side so they want Ethiopias OK since Eritrea and Ethiopia are at war they simply cannot set up shop in Eritrea. That is what Yamamoto was doing. Aren't you surprised at the speed and amount of money involved? BTW in case yu have not seen it yet, its totally against Somalia interest.

Don't blame Tigray for anything in this regard. I am disappointed he did not follow my schedule to the end. Somalia should have been first 3 even one hour in hiding announced day after. I wouldn't have cared how its done. Now has no value to Somalia. Even Erdogan who is more at risk came during bad days in Mogadishu. Meles went twice, Hailemariam went at least twice..Tigray for East Africa is like Trump for the world. Its not everything. You give them too much credit.

Isn't it surprising? 1 billion immediate deposit 3 billion investment I wish Farmaajo had found some means to milk both UAE and Qatar for some time, even a short time. Make both sweat it out as they are doing in Ethiopia. Looks like UAE won. Really bad for Djibouti, terrible situation. The Eritrea case is directly related to it and the war in Yemen. The speaker Jawari and PM Kyere really screwed this one up and Farmaajo did not react in time. Was mishandled. Should make them sweat a little before jumping with one side.

Where is Oodweyne? Missed here.

Very dangerous UAE is very fast moving to kickout Turkey and China for America from Ethiopia UAE is trying to punish Djibouti very fast by Taking Ethiopian business through Asab (Very bad for kililka) Egypt wants to slow or delay the filling of GERD and it seems secretly Abiy might have agreed Egypt was very happy