I would get him to do an interview and be himself critic of what he did/said. Other than that I wish every enclave had a Waraabe. Loose cannon is necessary everywhere. It shows Somaliland is better than the rest of us for having him. A Hashemite. lol

The thinking maybe military. If you have potential enemy within what you claim your territory then is 5th column, if outside is just an enemy. Or it could be some tribal chiefs taking advantage of the situation in Ethiopia and pay back for past or newly expanding. Trade routes control is major part in these conflicts. Moyale will become very important and strategic very soon. The Oromo think that route is one they can control and develop.

Isn't it funny what money can do? Leaders holding hands walking...just show off to rub it in on Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan and Tigray and Chinese as well. Only patience. Will blow over very fast. It has no social or economic basis. Ghelleh will have the last laugh. Eritrea has no port that can compete with Djibouti for next decade. If all else fails Ghelleh can negotiate with UAE and shut down every port activity even small in Eritrea. UAE would be more than happy. They declare victory on Ghelleh...we made him kneel down...so what? He has this last option.

Ultimate humiliation if the Kenyans did not investigate and shoot the offender/s pretty quick. Your enemy can kill you, burn you, bury you, but offending against one's women is the ultimate show of humiliation. Justice should be done quick.

There is enough Ethiopians and Eritreans that can do it for them. He was the last one of the Meles type around GERD.

Me thinks there is a force within the Oromo preparing to declare independence if it becomes too much ruling Ethiopia. Every corner of Oromo kililka has this kind of activity going on. The Somali of course is easy pick and first pick. Tribes trying to have their activities independently, rather than allying with the stronger. ONLF could have helped better in this situation more than kililka. But past experience with the tribe prevents this from happening. You can have all the fights with your brother, but if you don't have red line then you cross too far to the side of outsider and the enmity with your brother gets out of hand. Everywhere the Somali suffers from this.

Very sad news. Nothing is known yet from the police, but the media is reporting that he died from gun shot and the hand gun colt has been found in the car.

The picture says it all. Arabs and their show off. Now you have to be least Somali. Patience instead of quick to anger, no action instead of quick to action, talking english twisted instead of Somali direct, less visibility rather than the nomad in your face....etc "The softest things in the world overcome the hardest things in the world. Through this I know the advantage of taking no action." Lao Tzu

Arabs don't even have autonomy let alone independent strategy. That is why when Arabs become friends they hug too much and when they quarrel they fight too much, make it look like end of the world. Soon Qatar and Saudi will repair some of the damage and UAE will be distant. UAE and Qatar are deadly enemies because are in competition in everything. Ports, energy, real estate investment in Europe and America....everything. Next 6 months to a year will know if America tells them to ease off in the horn of Africa.

galbeedi, If you want fundamental or drastic change, don't expect it to happen with people who have a lot of buggage from the past. One big problem for ONLF was having leadership from either late Barre influence or those who split from WSLF. With this kind you can achieve at best only minor changes that bring even bigger problems. If you do it with Alliance with Oromo, then you are only pushing others to do changes by alliance with Amhara. Then the next cycle starts. It becomes clan issue as well and no end to it. I know you share the disbelief that TPLF is gone. lol No body does even Eritrea. That is why everybody says show me the dead body of TPLF otherwise they are tricky. lol Kililka should also stay low. Nothing useful to be gained now at this time. This Arab brahula will blow over. Eritrea is actually in deeper problem with what seems succeess. Its getting in bad conflict with Sudan and Djibouti. Its getting deeper with Saudi and UAE which is not good for them in the long run and even now. Ethiopia as always is changing because of outside requirements for the most part. Its easy to get a 100,000 Oromo to demonstrate if an Arab shiek wants let alone America.

If UAE does not find and hire Somaalis against Djibouti, Djibouti will be fine. He should contribute to stability in Somali and Afar kilils in Ethiopia with joint farms, giving the right to do business as Djibouti citizens for selected folks from both Kilils. Eritrea is lost cause. Eritrea has changed more masters than any other place in the horn of Africa. Persians, Ottomans, Egyptians, Italians, British and Ethiopia. The place never learns from history. They forget that empires come and go, but a neighbor a brother will be there long after empires are gone and new ones arrive. Eritrea is acting as if UAE and Saudi may never split, but will happen sooner than one realizes. Ghelleh just stay low and speed up economic works. Its very easy for your opponents to find unemployed youth, an article on NYT, few words from State Department officials...and you could be history for democracy human rights even faith since Wahabi are in alliance with your opponents.

He needs the Oromo diaspora. They never mix with Ethiopian diaspora. But they are powerful. With Somalis he will be careful. Especially with anti-Iley group. He will not be seen interfering in Kilil affairs unless they have general questions. Everything so far is all chereographed, co-ordinated from his clothing to facebook, youtube ethiopian tv propaganda is very sophisticated.

The Amhara don't need Tigray to keep them out. They can never be united. In Their kilil have many Ethnics that they did not respect and treat well in the past even now. Amhara also have big population everywhere especially in Oromia. Their interest is no federalism, no kilil. That is a non starter today in Ethiopia. As you said Ethiopia does shakeup every 2-3 decades. You cannot be patient when really down. The Somali, Afar can be patient. All they need to do is defend what they have achieved. Not Amhara. They have abut 20 parties going in all directions. Amhara for the most part are getting off the horse. Big issue now is a manager for Addis Ababa a friend of Abiy was put in place. The man was Oromo nationalist. Amhara are about 60% Addis residents. That is hottest issue. Ethiopians have already started talking about all this being only replacing TPLF by OPDO. List of top officials has already started. That is how Ethiopians keep count of clan positions posts in government. 70% of bureaucracy is Amhara so now Oromo are going there. All fight now moves to bureaucracy. Tigray used to run this by having deputy or manager, but not visible posts on top. Oromo are now taking top visible posts and Amhara have started the doubt, the critic and some downright opposition. Believe it or not Tigray and Somali had similar numbers in ministers and state ministers. You must have some reason to continue blaming the Somali for the conflict with Oromo. That is not the case. Its normal economic and zonal control conflict. How come the federal and army were accused yet are the same once Abiy sends lol is just politics. You and your side had high hopes that Abiy can force anybody in Kililka especially Iley. The best thing is if Iley leaves on his own or internally push quietly among Somalis. Any outside pressure the Somali Galbeed will never unite. The thing with TPLF not fracturing Kililka is that the very people that oppose Iley were closest friends of TPLF from 1994 till 2017. TPLF is from far away. Oromo on the other hand are next door and some cases inside. If you give window they make it a big door. Everybody is waiting what America, UAE, Saudis..next step is. One thing is for sure you can see signs America does not want Tigray to go far lol. You can see signs of it. Amhara cannot replace them. Tigray and Afar have same interest and same problems with Eritrea. They were always close and now even closer.

Hard to tell, but generally safe to say that Iley took better option. As you know, its very easy to find a window to the Somali soul and split him. Nomad culture is quick to action once starts not flexible. A Somali thinks changing tactics is like defeat. This way is much better. Kililka is better united except some like you lol. The worst seems to be over. You are aware that whatever happens in Djibouti has more impact on Kililka than Somalia. BTW the case where Iley outed the intelligence chief is not against TPLF. It is just against some clique in TPLF. Iley was close to the military guys like Samora Mohamed Yonus who are like cat and mouse with the Intelligence guy. The intelligence guy is still close to Abiy. Samora has retired after 17 years. Very successful career fighter since age 17. The Somali people should never get to deep in Ethiopian power politics unless has decided never to separate. Its give and take if you go deep, that means Ethiopia will also get deep into kililka. You cannot be the only one who gets all the participation. Network data moves both directions. America doesn't seem so confident anymore of the changes. I think PM Abiy took instruction literally and gave Eritrea whatever it wanted. The Amhara are now up in arms. And some Oromo as well. The issue internally is that "we are going from one Tigray to another". If ONLF stays outside everything will work out better.

Mooge, A nomad cannot be always nomad. Sometimes has to be farmer and seldom a hunter gatherer. He has not done much against them anyway. As long as he does not affect the Federal system or kilil, His noisy supporters are already doubting him. The Oromo are happy to get PM, president Defence minister, foreign minister which none of them were Tigray. You don't hear Ghelleh even breathing now, do you? The Tigray cannot go against America, Gulf Arabs. Will stay low. As usual America might want them out of front office, but would not want them to go far away. There has to be Xabeshi and the Amhara can never replace Tigray except in internet.

Perfect. They were talking something else than what they announced or spoke to media. Now a congressman is wanting to interrogate the interpreter. I don't if legal to do that. Mogadishu oh Mugadisho a sink hole of the Republic. Long time recognized fact is that Somalia recovery will not be in Mugadishu. The powerhouses in Mugadishu, one of them need to win clearly and the other accept defeat and look for allies outside of Mugadishu. Then all the regions would be looking for alliances and interacting. As it is now the houses in Mugadishu have no need of the rest of the country. Isn't it amazing that everybody is expecting something. Rest assured Tigray are not stupid to go against America/UAE/SAUDI/EGYPT combination. Will stay low. The Oromo or Amhara cannot do much without them anyway. Will always be significant. The question maybe just how significant. You were the only one expecting the Oromo at least to overthrow Iley. The rest of the Somali world knew what is the most or least Oromo could do. An Oromo with UAE money, what did you expect. This is the case where you went with your heart and not your head. What did you want the Somali Galbeed to do go into civil war. Don't expect much your way. Iley might retire or go to federal politics since he has now enough political capital to mix in the tribes in Addis Ababa. The system is reasonably matured in Kililka that any confident Somali in his skin can run it.

Can this Waraabe be replicated? Every Somali enclave needs one. Actually the one that needed this picture the most is Farmaajo.

We became analysts and are talking of Trump same thing we do of Formaajo, Bixi, Abdi Iley, Ghelleh.... Trump is fighting against old order in America for America. He is shaking the tree. Have you ever seen chief of intelligence, chief of CIA...take sides in politics and speak openly against a sitting president? This is major changes, major shakeup. He succeeds or not is yet to be seen, but the old order is terrified and pulling all stops. Russia gate is just a tool among many. Trump is not good for Africa. That is a given. Trump is not good for HOA that is a given. All his decisions are going to be based and influenced by UAE and Saudis, there fore no good for HOA.

Not even leaks, this must be an old fashion conference. Can someone write up if there is real news coming out of the conference?

I think given enough time Ethiopia will be gone on its own. No need to march to Addis. Just be prepared to stand when necessary. Everyone Somali, Eritrea, Djibouti...and powerful forces inside consider Ethiopia most artificial country in history. Put together left over of every European empire. Ever heard the French and British agree at that time, but here were hand and glove.

You mean internet wins. You mean Arab business wins over the nomads on the ground. I don't know Saalax, but my impression is someone far away from real danger and much less empathy.

But do you notice that most people still suspect them of having other plans. They are doing this to weather the storm. Me thinks they have been told by non other than USA to move aside and stay low. As far as Ethiopia is not out of the woods. Mr. Ahmed just did the same. Deployed the same Army and Federals to Somali-Oromo border area. He instructed the Army and Federals to interfere where ever there is illings and property damage before it expands.

Not far off. Its the political zoo of Europeans and many parts of the world tied to Europeans.

Don't go to extreme and make big mistake. Cuba defeated the American empire one rare fit repeated only by Vietnam. Why do you think Fidel Castro, Che Guevara are household names even in remote african villages. They also defeated South Africa in Angola. Never go against facts to defend something that we don't even have official or united information about the whole Somalia Ethiopia. Always rumours, inuendo, scattered individual information when so much human life and wealth involved.