US President Trump is at it again. Arab Nato. As Britain is to NATO, UAE will be for ARABNATO. That there is no doubt. What will be the place and role of Horn of Africa countries? The ARABNATO point man in the horn will be none other than Eritrea's Isayas. Who will be the members. Somalia again since is weak will pulled in both directions. ARABNATO maybe directed against Iran, but it is also against Turkey. It will reduce Turkey position dramatically. The Egyptians are hoping will be foot soldiers and recipients of the money. Since Saudi Arabia is not suitable to be base and UAE has no room, most likely Eritrea will compete for this base as well. This is very active project now and urgent.

It takes more than a year for Somalia PM to visit the most relatively peaceful and secured space in the republic. Isn't the PM primarily responsible for ministries that work in the country..education, health, administration, ..etc and less foreign affairs and defense?

Absolutely. UAE would be more than happy to finance by herself without UN/AU... Farmaajo has no choice but to agree and send letter to AU that Eritrea can be added to accepted countries. Then Eritrea creates problem in Djibouti sector and get Djibuti to withdraw. Actually Eritrea may replace Ethiopia first step then Djibouti.

That is very true, but one sided. We only pick from past history what is good for facebook age. You even forgot what happened in the exchange between Puntland president and Eritrean President. Yes the quarrel was related to ICU, but what they exchanged through media was how it was Eritrean soldiers that did atrocities after the Italians had defeated the Boqor. The Puntland president happens to be grandson and Isayas happened to be ICU supporter. But generally since the latest happens to be the Somali support to Eritrea, I agree with you that is in most people mind. But there is no benefit Somalia can gain from Eritrea's activity now. The Best Somalis can hope is that Eritrea will not be active in Somali affairs one way or another unless UAE changes its direction.

Both governments are winners. Ceasefire means Puntland cannot attempt anymore to take back the place. Freeze where you are. I hope Somaliland does a lot of development projects to gain people's support in the time of ceasefire so at least the locals benefit from ceasefire what they could not and should not gain by war. The rest is bonus to both depending one gaining more than the other at one point or another.

galbeedi, modesty, modesty...that anti-ethiopia is pushing you to loose all perspective. What do you think awaits any society after such dictatorship? What is in common with Eritrea, Somalia, Albania and Libya? If Eritrea had won the war, why would he call 2:00AM to clinton to tell Ethiopia to stop.? Why would he agree 25km deep in his country he cannot move army and heavy weapons? Why would he agree UN peacekeepers to be only on his side and not Ethiopian side? Propaganda when one dictator has full control and what is brewing inside are always different. BTW why are you repeating that he was invaded when he is the one who started the war and accepted the border commission decision that Eritrea has to compensate Ethiopia. You are making the guy more than he makes himself. He is a dictator from freedom fighter. Eritreans are as tribal as Somalis. That tribal oppression of some like the Afar and Tigre will explode then you will be shocked. He just got lucky that UAE and Saudi wanted him/his country for war in Yemen, that is all there is to it. And as bonus he got twice lucky and UAE and Djibouti quarrel.

What may happen is if EU and US cannot control their arguments, EU may partly reconcile with Russia and Turkey. For Turkey the Stans are enough for market and resource and Iran is now totally reliant on Turkey and then Russia China as secondary.

I think you are mistaken with that approach. All Somali clans sub clans are present in Kililka. Its not exageration to say kililka is a microcosm of the Somali Ethnic. Others were more friendly to TPLF/ EPRDF in the 90s and some still are. The Good thing is most Somalis in Kililka feel that there is kililka and then there is Ethiopia so they have boundary on their quarrels and love.

And those in Uganda are well paid from the money made from AMISOM. Unless he goes natural way, this man's end will be bad.

I am afraid your acquentance has a house there and is member of the party, since there is no medesty in his description let alone truth. 1. Asmara and the part Eritreans brag about is exactly the same as the Italians left it and was their houses, cinemas and shops. Xabeshi were not allowed after 6pm in that Asmara. Some buildings not even paint changed from old pictures and paint chicped windows not closing properly...all that Italian built. The current govt only built one big one and other smaller units named Korea as the builders. 2. Just try calling telephone there. Half the time is not working 3. The whole country has only 100MW at best of times 4. Has 300,000 free labor any time, but are used building homes of colonels and diaspora supporters. 5. There is no religious freedom. Just recently people were gunned down for preventing government taking over school they established themselves. Dictators have always way of making believe that its all quiet, all orderly, no corruption...etc Until suddenly the bottom falls off and then one wonders how did this happen? 3 years in a row Eritrea per capita was most refugee generating country in the world. Its always good to speak/write modestly even the best of things.

He is very ambitious man as all dictators in full control of their country are. If he does not do harm to Somalia as messenger of UAE, Egypt that would be great. Dictators easily forget, but I hope he remembers the past. Farmaajo is in trouble on this one as regards to Djibouti. Eritrea and Ethiopia have both been given tasks and money to become America and Arab herdsmen. It could not have been a far worst time for Somalia's weak TFG. Can you see that Turkey is also very busy and less active in the Horn understandably.

PM Abiy very likely, but will not be successful except expose who is most greedy most opportunist and some quarrel and since its very hard for a Somali to say sorry and change direction, some even smart folks will be lost in the sea of Ethiopian politics.

I think is more than that galbeedi, The Americans will go after Iran and Turkey they think will be weakest link. Turkey will get free oil and gas and help Iran trade through it. That is what America is afraid happening and will happen.

As far as can be observed, some of the leadership of Tigray looks like even physically moved to their home base. Don't expect them to do anything against America, UAE, Saudi. Israel does not lose anything regardless and Tigray are the once who have the best relation and shared people with them. The guns macheetti etc was OLF groups one among the 3 of them. One is Arusi led by the General, one is Wellega led by old OLF that is still in Asmara which the leader is suspected being Tigray from Eritrea but born and raised in Oromo. Some of these groups support Abiy but want Oromo to be prepared for anything.

Absolutely. Otherwise the whole thing will be hijacked, leave a bitter taste on some which will bring payback at some time and a cycle of enmity among one people instead of straight competition.

Thank you. Some of them are not even prepared to state their objectives clearly for the Somali people. My criterion is one and only one fundamental. Anyone who wants to weaken the autonomy of the Somali in favor of alliances with outsiders under any slogan will be a disaster and take back the people to tribal days. I thought you were one of those Somalis Begging PM Abiy to overthrow the Kililka government, am i wrong?

You have your own reasons and objectives for saying that, which you have never hidden, but all these countries are not moving by their own internal dynamics. Very little internal dynamics and a lot of outside interference from super powers, middle powers and even small time powers. PM Abiy has to have all the stars aligned as they are now to be successful. Imagine if Ghelleh and UAE worked out some accommodation, then the love boat would move to Djibouti in a heart bit. Ghelleh will not forget PM Abiy treachery and weakness. Example PM Abiy should have visited Djibouti again after all this love boat hupla with UAE. I can assure you a Tigray would have done that even when under pressure of America or Arabs. They always did with Sudan and Djibouti. Long after even America is gone, Djibouti and Ethiopia will be there. PM Abiy knows that even 10% of Ethiopian business can not be moved to Eritrea. There is no infrastructure for it. I can guess you do not know this reality on the ground. Even when Ethiopia had Assab and Massawa for 40 years, there was never ever more trade done through Eritrea than Djibouti.

The issue is not financial. The Italian company can guarantee from Italian banks and get paid from the Electricity sale. That was already done. The rest is Ethiopian companies which are being paid and some are public corporations which have bonds.. The issue is what did PM Abiy and Al Sissi agreed? There is not a single article on Egyptian press like Al Ahram afetr that visit, before that was every day There is no update of progress on Ethiopian news, before that there was weekly program from TV and Radio just update on progress. It was supposed to start generating 700MW this year, and not a mention of it after PM Abiy talk with Egypt and UAE. Its off the news completely not only headlines in Ethiopia, until death of the Engineer.

My friend, general theories and emotional wishes are of no use when you have a problem at hand. You can blame Tigray or Amhara but you will not prevent a single death. As you know a nomad killed today is just another retribution another day. Even the Oromo are not blaming Tigray or Amhara, they are blaming their own organizations and clans. What makes you think you know better? But generally speaking when you have problem at hand involving human life, protect that, stop the killing first and then go look for a Tigray. Right now not much can be done even if Tillamook the investigator brought a Tigray or Amhara culprit by his ears from the tree he had climbed..

Yes I agree with you, but now Eritrea has a lot of options against Somalia. Ethiopia, ONLF, and other warlords and organizations. Eritrea might even join AMISOM to get money, work for UAE and get foothold it lost against Ethiopia. No need to be emotional. Djibouti can handle Eritrea better than Somalia. Somalia cannot afford to risk anything for Djibuti now other than intelligence sharing and preventing Somalis being used against Djibbouti.

Having Capital city is really a drag. Poor people, lazy people, thieves, swindlers..gather around government house. I would choose a major project like Electricity generation, industrial scale and modern farm, railroad....Pharmaceutical farms and industry...rather than capital city.

The area where he is from, by birth is mostly Agew, but maybe he is Amhara. He is from Amhara Kilil. In deed there is always some business or secret interests around death of such people.

I think negotiation is best to be done on all issues and also on main question. SFG should not depend so much on IC and think can ignore Somaliland and Somaliland should not depend too much on SFG being weak. Otherwise some outside circumstances may come up and nobody will be happy. Who would have thought Sudan would let go South, but American European pressure and Egyptian sabotage.Who would have thought Ethiopia would let go Eritrea, but herself became close to death.

Now you will have the two men going at it. It will take a life of its own. Its the quarrel with Israel of Erdogan that adds to urgency of the matter, otherwise V/p has been at it and went nowhere.

Another Mugabe Typical African no shame. What an arrogance on the people. What a weak people too for the most part.