Old_Observer

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Everything posted by Old_Observer

  1. That is OLF map and main reason ONLF and OLF have never worked together. The reason Dirdawa became federal city was ONLF and the Oromo would have gone to war. The only kilil that does not border Oromo is Tigray.
  2. He is a smart man and also always Oromo first. He is well trained well financed well supported by countries. There was a snag that he was supported by Qatar, but solved it right away at split of Arabs. Egypt is the only constant.
  3. The one about Lema Megersa is fake news to make him look good at the time. The One about Amhara kilil is he did the same as Iley, because he did not want soldiers from everywhere Ethiopia. So he offered the federal govt he will arrest himself anyone wanted but no army. He did arrest some 3,000 and handed them to federal. This system is good for everybody. Especially for Somalis who do not want open society to different cultures. I think those Somalis who were begging the Oromo to remove Iley are now looking bad and feeling bad. But then again they are Somalis too and you don't want them to look bad after them sticking their long necks without noticing the risk. Will take some time to repair the damage in the population some mistrust will linger. They all knew Iley was going to resign, but they wanted some violence to change few more things more important than Iley the autonomy. Dirdawa and the oil sharing agreement will also be affected. Now both Iley and Ghelleh are sidelined as far as Dirdawa goes and the Oromo will take it for sure. I am sure you don't mind that. The 40 Oromo, 40 Somali and 20 all other Ethiopians allocation for positions in the city will change quietly first and then formaly. BTW your candidate Shide will have a hard time being Somali for some time. Very embarrassing. I am sure he was reading what they gave him as spokesperson, but that was rich.
  4. Considering what was intended..this is much better result. implications remains to be seen. Eritrea might have had a hand in telling the Oromo to change course ones the plan failed.
  5. I don't think his concern is safety of Iley, its rather safety of his empire represented by flag shown. There is talk of "Ethiopian" invasion of that kingdom which keeps changing dons every some years.
  6. They cannot butt heads but cannot share power. That is the dilemma for both. Can't butt heads as long as they both not sure Tigray is out. That is impossible to do right now. Only Tigray has reasonable and fairly good relations with other Ethnics except the two. They cannot share power, because they are the opposite. They both have organizations that can't even shake hands let alone to be allies. OLF can easily work with Tigray which they did in 1991, but hardly with Amhara. Soon it will be who gets support of Tigray. The Amhara also are not as strong as united as Oromo.
  7. Yes. But if fighting went on they would have physically destroyed so many things first among them ESTV and the Assembly and of course main target Liyu and even police. This way you can preserve some or more of what is necessary for autonomy.
  8. You my friend not only do you need to write serious history books but comedic books for politicians as well. Unique and so descriptive just like a picture. Tigray as kilil is not 1/100th as important to Ethiopia as Somali kilil. Tigray is just history identity and some capacity. They have all centers of Jewish, Christian and Islam all in one kilil. They were also more nomads than farmers at least all around and they fight. Somali kilil is gateway any problem there and the Oromo will be run out of town in a Mogadishu minute.
  9. Isn't it amazing the Somali have the most civilized and developed political structure than any kilil in Ethiopia. The party head and the president can be different. Even Iley was not president until two months ago in preparation for his resignation. He only took the post 2 months ago. All Other kilils chief of party is also chief of kilil.
  10. Correct and calling it like it is with few exceptions: 1. There is some damage, but fixable and the autonomy can be preserved. But now the fight will be even worst against autonomy, because everybody has seen what little autonomy can do. 2. The Oromo wanted war, because you can do more changes by war than you can by negotiation. They were also assured of war win since they have the military cards and million militia in their kilil which they can give federal uniforms, they can declare state of emergency and do damage that will take another generation to fix or even fatal. 3. To be fair this is far beyond kililka, not just for oil etc, but the whole thing UAE, America..Djibouti..Eritrea Yemen..makes this whole thing really not fair for the Somali anywhere and kililka the most which is in the den of the beast or empire. The behaviour of some Somalis was outright shameful but worst than that st-pid. They thought that the Oromo will not negotiate so the Somali became more Oromo than the Oromo. Now they look more terrible than the Oromo.
  11. That is one hiccup already. Abiy was singing Minelik and Haileslassie last week, but that did not get him enough passengers on his bus so now he has to go to the mortal enemy of Menelik, the OLF. An inconvenient or convenient open secret is also making the rounds. "Abiy was one of the fund raisers and also present at the occasion when the Oromo built a monument to remember the breasts of women and hands of men Menelik cut"
  12. Some of you may not realize the difference, but kililka doing it its own way even after the damage will make a big difference for future. Those Somalis who were running up and down breathless around the Oromo to be appointed as chiefs are now looking bad and humiliated. Still they should regret and correct their ways and not continue the wrong road they had started. All dressed up no where to go for some people.
  13. How do you know who was who? You can ask even your Amhara friends. They will tell you a Somali would not go burn a church kill a priest and to top it all search for a special priest to kill, that has to be a Tigray. Not an Oromo, not an Amhara, not Gurage..it has to be one from Tigray which is a rare find only a calculated planned group can find. How come the hooligans started wrecking places and the Oromo Liyu that is called army and federal for this purpose were there in minutes yet did not stop a single hooligan nor saved a single shop? Why are you going out of your way, and I am sure pictures have not made it yet to targeted propagandists, because the pictures need editing to show Somali which is not hard to do? You cannot tell me you have inside information, because inside or outside that is not what happened. Jawar was waiting for live feed, but things did not go as planned. Now he has to wait for edited version. They are looking for actors to kill a priest holding kililka flag or even blue flag and singing Somalia anthem.
  14. It will be maybe planned maybe accident, but you can see that the Oromo will connect to some sea shore in generation or two.
  15. galbeedi, I did not know you are such an insider calling for Shide to be kililka president. He was reading today on TV exactly word for word what you and Jawar write all the time. So many white lies saying "small number among Somali leadership". That was rich. He was saying things even the Oromo nationalist Negere could not say about kililka. Bad news for you and Jawar: Kililka has been damaged to some degree, but there is enough capability to fix things quickly and continue the journey The khat trade route the general trade route is still up for grabs since the Oromo did not get what they wanted and that is further war and destruction of kililka. Prominent people that were not one sided have now seen the risk the Oromo can bring to the country in a hurry. They told Abiy that few more steps and the country will unravel in his hands.
  16. That is over rated. No reason for Oromo to go to Tigray unless they themselves want to separate and want to totally weaken the Xabeshi which is unlikely. Tigray is sarounded by Eritrea which the Oromo are now kissing feet and hand. Kililka is most strategic for Ethiopia than any other region. Its the gateway. Eritrea can never replace Djibouti which means kililka is still strategic. Without oil or gas even simply as road makes kililka gateway and also long border means security risk if kililka is not happy. What the Oromo wanted was weak kililka and the clans and subclans on the road to be their best friend and secure the route. Tigray have no interest in weak kililka, on the contrary strong kililka was in their interest. and also the route is only top priority if they Tigray are in control of the whole shindig.
  17. Yes he did, but the price is not known yet. What will be status, strength, damage to Liyu How much will Abiy have gone deep into the black box called Somali...some clans may have crossed to the Oromo side and that could prove to be biggest damage to kililka. How insulated will kililka be or will it be just a province of Ethiopia Yet to be clear. They seem to be smarter than some Somalis. They are not throwing out all around Iley they are still compromising, afraid also that there could be surprises.
  18. The Amhara are getting off the bus. Its only briefcase parties and groups that have joined. Today the MOFA and President of Oromia are in Eritrea negotiating with OLF (named Shannie) a group that has not joined but has most influence among Oromo. Its their flag that all Oromos wave. Eritrea is also showing some cold feet since Eritreans started asking for similar changes. ONLF, OLF, and TPDM (Tigray) are security for Eritrea I think.
  19. The chief of staff is Tigray and the chief of Intelligence is from Amhara region. Both were comrades against Mengistu. Gen. Adem was chief air force they moved him to intelligence to make room for Oromo chief airforce. The next day they also appointed deputy chief of intelligence an Oromo, so Gen. Adem is kind of sidelined. The chief of staff was one of the 5 commanders of TPLF against Derg and also commander of Central command many years. If Jigjiga is to go by most of the force was Oromia Liyu under federal name and uniform.
  20. You think that and you are worried for your flag? If I were you I would be more concerned of some Liyu that definitely cannot contnue there and also ONLF that will be energized now and may not start war in Ethiopia but cleanup the borders first.
  21. You were not saying anything positive about him when he signed the Berbera agreement, but now since he is Jawar's choice you came around so fast. I think you have a big problem with Iley side. I think they have done the best that can be done with all the tretchery and even a whole group becoming Oromo one day, becoming half Somali another day...Its a struggle to keep everybody on target. Some groups have no shame to jump from side to side. BTW please do not repeat that it was Somalis that burned churches or businesses. The Somali and Afar are only Islam Ethnics that have never had done anything remotely close to what has been done. For the Oromo they have done it in many places through the years as recent as 3 weeks ago. The Somali actually even helped and protected Christians at all times even when fighting war for independence from Ethiopia. As for businesses there is pictures that will show you even time line when the first hooligans start and when the army arives. As for your friend Jawar (whom you never met) he was very disappointed. He was prepared to visit Illey in chains or dead body to show on burrial. Within few weeks or few months depending the leadership of kililka the agreement for oil sharing details can be signed and the trade route made federal responsibility, Liyu removed from any activity if not disbanded or included in army so it cannot be a unit. I hope they will not succeed in any of this. A lot of blood sweat life limb has been paid to get this level of autonomy. Nobody will give you autonomy even when written on paper. You have to be strong enough to take it.
  22. There are some societies mostly in north Ethiopia that do not use Muslim or Moslem. They use Islam, Islamay (person). Mohamedian is funny that comes from how Christians view Christ as a God. So as Christians are followers of Christ it extended from it or copied to Mohamedian.
  23. Their Calendar finished in 2012. That was considered like end of the world by some groups same as American evangelicals support Israel to bring the end they call Rupture of the earth.
  24. What changed on your end? You are stil trying to blame Iley when you know that the Oromo are preventing him in every step. Aren't you the one who opened a thread blaming Somalis for something which can be false flag bomb in Addis which every single one of the suspects caught so far is Oromo? Anyway there is news that Demeqe Deputy PM has gone to Jigjiga to meet Iley and he is one of the people that wanted that Iley should be allowed to have assembly meeting and do things properly. The Oromo are insisting this time not disband Liyu (which is one of the main objectives) but are demanding that Liyu get out of cities.