Old_Observer

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Everything posted by Old_Observer

  1. All that is fine. The issue is that as Turkey gets tied up in certain issues, the amount of time, the amount of money, the amount of activity they could have done in Somalia becomes less. Same with Qatar. Even America is so busy with China, Russia and Africa is being left to regional lords like UAE is one of them. Remember that the Shah of Iran and Haileslassie of Ethiopia are victims of Watergate scandal partly. Turkey had more activities in Ethiopia, Economic ones. Since new PM and later Eritrea which was decidedly against Turkey taking Suakin,...not much heard of Turkey. Next to China, Turkey was the sought after country in Ethiopia.
  2. I think you are mistaken. If America or UAE paid 100 dollars each to 10,000 poor and put few galbeedis lol on the internet there you have a revolution. The nomad is out of the game. The nomad was good at war with arms. Now the system works with democracy human rights mass media and you are done. The longer one has been in power the more things you can find to slogan. Coruption is one, might have killed few opponents is another, might have defeated few business competitors is another... Look at Ukraine...look what is happening in Romania where the simple reason is a gold mine was taken from Soros.
  3. Very unfortunate for Somalia. It will be further down on the list of priorities or even dropped from list of Turkish projects all together. Farmaajo run to UAE and Eritrea faster than Abiy of Ethiopia. No option. Just do not do anything tangible against Djibouti.
  4. If you want to see this in action you see it around and in Dirdawa/DirDabo. The best crisis actor they had on Ethiopian TV was a lady beautiful of course tall and light skin. She was counting that her grand mother, her mother are all Oromo, we are same people we are family etc...amazing. The Oromo are also like Somali can adapt a tribe. The Only difference is the Oromo adapt totally you loose everything of the old. Among Somali you can keep your tribal idiosyncrasies. I did not mean it in a negative way. Its common in Ethiopia a lot of tribes have become Amhara. The Tigray and Afar do not dilute easily themselves keep distance and differences over hundreds of years.
  5. That is noble. Ghelleh and Silanyo also acted noble on Yemen war. BTW that is one reason the Tigray are sidelined as well. Djibouti. Eritrea never seems to pass up anytime to serve anyone with power like Italy or Money like Arabs. PM Abiy is also on that train. I don't think the Amhara would have gone that far against Djibouti. Kililka has become collateral. Its on the road and it has oil and also became too powerful making Oromo envious.
  6. I don't have the 99 year lease for Djibouti. Djibouti was not a port then. Only Zeila and Tajura were useful ports for Europeans and Middle East. Even Assab was not a port. Tajura was under Menelik by default since Menelik king of Shiwa was given by Yohannes the king of kings east, south and west of Shiwa which includes part of kililka and Harer. The French first were on the Afar portion only later moved to Somali side and both. The Afar Sulatan fought against Minelik and was defeated jointly by Menelik and Italians with French blocking him. Haileslassie was long gone when the French were ready to decolonize Djibouti. Ethiopia was changing generals then and Mengistu has just taken the seat. The population of Djibouti is 60/40 Somali Afar. There is more than 100,000 from Ethiopia that is not included mostly Xabeshi. about 15% of the Somali is dual citizen with Ethiopia. They choose primary country based on the opportunity. Both Ethiopia and Djibouti have never been strict about this, maybe now they will since mistrust is slowly building. There is no cousins or brothers among nomads lol actually cousins and brothers fight more than with outsiders.
  7. Do you have moving away from Qatar to UAE in mind? That will knock off few Gobols right away. Bring Eritrea and you may even have a go at Puntland. The Eritreans would be more than happy to do that. As dictators take things personally Eritrean dictator hates Puntland with passion.
  8. Somalia could only have united Djibouti by force of arms. Ethiopia was only country that could have asked since it was Ethiopia that signed 99 year lease to France and not Somalia. Somalia also has to split Djibouti since the land is half and half between Somali and Afar. I think Djibouti was a hail merry kind of inclusion. When Britain had agreed to give up NFD and Kililka and organized a conference to unite all Somali under one country except those in Djibouti, it was the Somali who rejected the idea. 50 years wasted looking both directions to unite all or to develop separately. Politicians playing one against the other depending on the times. ONLF did not give up the right to self determination. The only thing ONLF is negotiating is that it will struggle with guns or political only. OLF of Oromo is also the same.
  9. I think they underestimated the link Ghelleh has established in Ethiopia. PM Abiy cannot undo it in less than 10 years. There is already friction UAE Saudi in Yemen. The competition in Washington between UAE and Saudi is now open and no holds barred. The Saudis have said or done nothing against Djibouti. Saudi have base in Djibouti (can't use it for Yemen and that is OK by them). On the other hand in Somalia UAE can do a lot of damage.
  10. If that common enemy you had in mind was Xabeshi. Nothing has ever worked that way. You should have looked into the long history. Even in 1977 there were more Xabeshi organizations supported by Somalia fighting the Ethiopian govt than Oromo. This kushitic Semitic is over rated and meaningless. No permanent friends and no permanent enemies is better and it works.
  11. Some Ethiopian politicians are openly proposing that Ethiopia and Eritrea do a land swap. Give Eritrea farm lands from Tigray and Eritrea give Assab to Ethiopia. Looks trial balloon, but Eritreans are not against it. If for nothing else this has effect of squeezing Tigray and making the people doubt their leaders. This of course can kill Djibouti in the long run with investment from UAE if they contnue like now as American envoy for HOA. The pipeline was another trial balloon which is not feasible.
  12. Latest pressure on SFG: 1. Request IGAD to propose the inclusion of Eritrea on AMISOM. Ethiopia will help. Ethiopia cannot do this initiation because of Djibouti. Kenya cannot do this because of agreements with Djibouti and friction with Eritrea. Sudan will not do it. Somalia has to agree to the list anyway even if all agree. 2. Request that UAE resolve the border issue between Eritrea and Djibouti. Failing this Somalia offer itself and UAE will nominate the person and finance the mission. 3. Create a Gobol in Somaliland that can have impact in Djibouti. Coded and not so coded. This will have double effect on Djibouti and Somaliland. Ethiopia will assist, splitting Kililka and empowering areas that can help in this project. The Afar are not willing to damage Djibouti to benefit Eritrea, but some Somalis are willing to do it.
  13. This is quite common everywhere, but in the HOA it has attained the height of fake history. Every some decades new claims and counter claims are generated especially when there is regime or change of fortunes. It has taken a quarter century to discredit and expose what the Amxara created. The Oromo are now on high speed to create their own stories. The worst part is when the victims start believing it and convert themselves. When you have Somali tribes trying ot tripping each other finding an Oromo connection then its time to give up and move on if you do not have money or force.
  14. This DNA being talked about in some parts of the world is unreal. The methodolgy used to gather samples, selection and quantity of samples..is all very very inadequate People in Northern parts of any country even in Europe have moved a lot mixed a lot..whether in France Italy or Somalia or Tunisia north somehow has had different way of life. Do you think you should find from 4' to 7' in one soceity..never all the difference would be within 1 foot. Would you find in one community from Arab look to African look ..no you should only find from dark brown to black or from lightbrown to dark brown. DNA of these people can never and should never be the same except what is the same for all humans.
  15. Its just the historical background. That is how they used to conquer by destroying everything. Other people to capture land, collect taxes, steal camels and go etc...these folks seem to fight to just finish everything.
  16. At the very least galbeedi was clear from the get go. He may have been motivated by clan, but all the stars aligned for him including UAE. From Oromized Somali, to full Oromo, to victory over victory smooth sailing. If people have to be hang from a lamp post so be it, its a revolution." galbeedi modfied Castro quote of revolutions' victims Jawar yesterday in Amhara kilil gave some personal information. "Shocking" "How could I be against Christians. My mother is Amhara Christian My wife is from (Pente) Protestant" I go, I think the Americans are really outdone the British. galbeedi, Do you mind sharing your exposure to western society or you are just a nomad living in the west.
  17. There was a reception for Jawar Mohamed in the city and people have gathered from all the villages around the city. As you may know there is power struggle of one between the Lema/Abiy and Qero. But with in the Qero since its underground the competition is between OLF in Eritrea and Jawar. Jawar has media so he can claim Qero. Hard to say which group did it, but the city is multi Ethnic. This particular gathering was Oromos. Somebody said that a vehicle was carrying bomb, they burned the vehicle (It was city police vehicle). Then another one said that guy has a bomb, and they stormed on him and hang him.
  18. Jawar on TV. There are two governments now one of PM Abiy and one of QERO.
  19. Actually changes are being made that makes them less than what they could have been. News in Govt Media is that ONLF this ONLF that ..but changes have been made already before they land, starting from the time they boarded the airplane. They are already being used as cover. The main thing ONLF wanted to keep of Iley was Liyu and that happens to be main target of Oromo. Next will be ESTV.
  20. This is not just victim issue. Its the border between animals and humans. Its not a question of the few you see doing it. There was no attempt by anyone to stop it.The tactics you use define you, they define what culture you have.
  21. This incident BTW just put Ethiopia into country of savages overnight. All that image is now thrown out. No explanation needed and the country is just in shock. Will not go away.
  22. Only the Tigray, Afar and Somali can find enough base to stand together and maybe half of Amhara. The international situation is 100% against them. Just have to survive with what they have, that is even struggle byitself.
  23. Its not a matter of following rules or democratic or fair. Its simply not possible considering it will split first the Oromo. Unless Abiy has given up on Oromo nationalists and has determined his power base to be Amhara and he will fight the Oromo nationalists its not logistically and security wise possible. Imagine how long it will take to dismantle kililka alone?
  24. That is what Iley critics don't realize. Accuse him of everything under the sun, and very easy to do now, but clanist is not. Even Liyu is not accused of being a D-Block and tormenting the other blocks. Memebers and even people in command are mixed.