Old_Observer

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Everything posted by Old_Observer

  1. The Somali nomad has become like all African farmers and hunter gatherers. Fight over what is there and stop attempting to find new grass lands, rivers, fertile lands...which would translate to new market, new road, new factories...today. Look everywhere. People fight over existing and in the fight they break it or destroy it then looking help from outside.
  2. I think Kismayu has always been hot button even when Kenya totally relied on Ethiopians and had no movement what so ever of its own. It maybe problem left by the Portuguese in their short stay there. Instead of changing hands, give it all of you to smallest clan and they will be fair to all. 10% of the population, the Hareri have better managed kilil keeping in check the Oromo, Somali, Amhara etc.
  3. MMA, At the end of the day we each count our losses by kilil, by zone, by district, by village/town and as usual by clan, sub clan... Everybody including the Tigray or the Oromos do that. As for Iley brutality two things. 1. you should be very angry that somebody has to do it for you and you have to pay a big price for that somebody to do it for you. 2. What makes Iley exceptional in Ethiopia? Is all that is said by Jawar and their parallel government true or there is that Kuwaiti incubator effect? The changes in Ethiopia are still ongoing. Only this time with biggest influence from Eritrea/UAE/America.
  4. galbeedi, We all lost and the worst part is the loss will just continue and continue fast and furious unrelenting. Next step is to make Shinnile and area semi kilil or special province. There is already an organization set up and face book started to do that. Its expected that new special kilil/province will choose to be with Oromo in a year or two thus connecting Oromo to Djibouti without Iley or the likes standing in the way. Dirdhaba is closed just the technicalities left. Dirdhaba is not in the constitution. It was done federal by the government just to avoid war between ONLF and OLF. So now government can make vote intimidate the others by QERO and split the Somali and they are done. "democratically" to boot. It will be imossible in this generation to make alliance let alone unity between the Somalis here again. It has to wait for next generation. Too many wounds, humiliations, sabotages, tripping...etc.
  5. Hard to confirm either way. The Oromo now have allies within the Somali where they go and shoot in the air to call federal (Oromo in federal name). They have done it already in few places. They start shooting, blame Liyu and then call Army and take control of area to disarm people.
  6. The Oromo had brought OLF through west. Did not disarm them, but now when its turn of Somali are saying everybody need to be disarmed. It only affects the ONLF and some small ones. Its in the news now that TPDM (Tigray) who Eritrea has always said they are 20 thousand are not going to be disarmed. They negotiated with chief of intelligence no politicians. The whole thing looks like very well planned destruction of anything Somali including Media and Education.
  7. What ever tools you use to fight your opponent, expect the following; If your opponent is stronger will use less destructive tactics. If your opponent is equal will use the same tactics as yours. If your opponent is weaker will use very destructive tactics and means. Also remember this: "I don't, I did not do it for you" Jawar does not do things for galbeedi. Jawar does not mind if galbeedi benefits from the left over. If the Somali becomes second class in DirDhaba which is becoming then galbeedi can be given the head of the second class. If galbeedi was expecting for Jawar to work all those years against Iley to hand you the city....you were wrong from day one. There is no Somali official left in Dirdhaba that can fight and maintain the Somali status now. Total cleansing is going on. Will be completed soon. All other ethnics that were allies of the Somali are now so intmidated by QERO. Its QERO government now in Oromo East and south.
  8. galbeedi, You are not the person whom I can say I told you so, but is sad to see you reduced to clan from the pie in the sky uniting all Somalis in East Africa under one flag under one government in one country what is called irridentism. If there was one thing the last generation of Somalis in Ethiopia agreed and worked upon with all the ups and downs was: Developing autonomy, keeping kililka as small Somalia and protect it from integrating too much culturally, socially in Ethiopia. The Tigray were the most influential in Ethiopia and every tribe, religion, ethnic in Ethiopia preferred their prominence than others, for one simple reason. Autonomy no matter how limited. Their system traditionally is they don't force or even ask others to speak their language, to follow their culture...like the Amhara did for a century and the Oromo now have started. Its a bit too late now unless you still insist the Oromo should get into sub sub sub clan level among the Somali and totally destroy what little left. You are still inviting the north and east galbeedis to ally (actually unite) with Oromo and fight their cousins. That is still wrong. Iley was ready to go, but you wanted vengence and prevented him to go. You wanted to humiliate the Somali so he cannot stand for anything now without being threatened to be next Iley. "You break it you own it" Gen Colin Powel on Iraq Now don't run away. Ask your Oromo Jawar to let you in the action. Don't break kililka completely. Some Somali might show up to repair it in the future.
  9. One side: 1. Illey is very bad 2. We Somalis cannot do anything about it ourselves 3. We don't care if you take Dirdhaba, if you control trade route, if you destroy our autonomy..Just get rid of Illey for us 4. If you Oromos do this for us we give you few tribes that used to be name Somalized Oromo or Oromized Somali you can have them all for good. This group is made up of: Somali republic folks who are clanist, Somalilanders who are afraid of Djibouti Kililka tight alliance, Kililka victims of the past 7 years of fight with ONLF and other groups, tribes that see their future is Oromo, dumbed down or bought Somalis by the modern face book shenanigan. The strongest group here not Somalis, but Oromos like Jawar and his Qero. Other side: 1. Illey is very bad 2. We will replace him ourselves. We are almost done, don't interrupt us. 3. Don't touch our autonomy we have paid dear life and limb to get this far, Don't postpone election in Dirdhaba (we can still win allying all others with us as you know every other Ethnic prefers Somalis than Oromo), the trade route will continue to be battle ground on Shinnile and area between Somali and Oromo.. This group is made up of: Veterans of all the wars of the past that involved Ethiopian Somalia and also wars of land disputes, Federalists from all Ethiopia and Somalis, Clans that will be excluded regardless, Ethiopians afraid the war with oil will get new fighters and the Somalis will make Ethiopia not investment attractive, Next regime change will be Djibouti unless stoped in kililka, Iley should be legaly accused only in kililka and justice done only in kililka..
  10. He probably wants Somaliland to get so annoyed and frustrated to start something on its own. Remember: Idi Amin Ul Dada told Julius Nyere of Tanzania "He is just like a woman talking has no power to do anything" Some 3 months later our friend Musevini was in Kampala with mostly Tanzanian soldiers but under Uganda liberation something. War is more psychological than shooting guns. What if he wants Somaliland to spend enormous amount of money keeping guard to Puntland that never comes? or Somaliland army gets tired and bored guarding and then surprise.
  11. Hard to believe but it works even among Somalis that just don't care of the consequences, but only want the Oromo to remove Iley.
  12. Did you also believe the Kuwaiti ambassador daughter when she acted so superbly in the American senate hearing when she stated she was a nurse, saw Iraqi soldiers throwing babies from incubators on the floor. The truth was: She was not in Kuwait for 6 years prior. She was in Washington DC. She was not a nurse The Iraq army did not do anything like that. But Americans were so shocked wanted nuclear bomb thrown on Iraq. Iley is a bad guy, but the pile on is so orchestrated and almost all manufactured white lies the result wanted is to shame, intimidate the Somali people not to ask for any territory, city or village, farm lands, grazing lands, trade routes control. From now on any Somali asking for anything will be called Iley supporter.
  13. Ahmed Shide stated on Ethiopian TV that: "One of the most important factors in the changes is to have friendly government with our neighbors" That is word for word. This has both good and bad meaning. And when you realize what the changes are, the steps show only and only one result. The message is "we had a bad guy so we got rid of him. The reality is the method you use to get rid of your bad guy is totally depending on outsiders and the price you pay is your autonomy. Outsiders now can go deep in your region and remove ordinary officials.
  14. That is why I said before this, that the straight shooting, free minded, quick to anger and quick to action nomad is no match for the face book age and tactics. Every single item Jawar raised has been implemented. The QERO Shabab shut the water system for Dirdhaba and started working as parallel government even collecting taxes. The Somali in charge of public safety and security asked and got state of emergency. Removed them and brought the city under control. Guess what. He was first one to be removed in this coup, long before anything happened in Jigjiga and now removed from Somali party all together.
  15. To summarize and put it concisely, what you are saying is: We Somalis cannot change our government, cannot change our president, he is ally of Tigray We Somalis want our Oromo brothers to come change our government change our president. We are incapable of doing things ourselves please come and save us from this Somali Tigray we want Somali Oromo. Do you realize what you are doing? Do you see now the steps your Oromo "saviours" took. They could care less what happens in Jigjiga. Their interest is the trade route and connecting with Djibouti either by alliances or dismantling kililka. 90% of steps they have taken so far are all related and based around DirDhaba and Shinnile. You are also telling the Somali people to always find outsiders to change their lot.
  16. My friend, Most of it is fiction. And even the Amhara have just dropped it and moved ON to the 21st century where everybody can start fresh write it on Wikipedia, put it on facebook and youtube with some good graphics, viola you have a country or tribe that was king of the hill, but nobody heard of it before. It doesn't matter. No body has time for 18th or even 19th century. Just today. The latest "research' is the Amhara were kushitic again that "race" that is becoming sexy with the Oromo, and the Agew Tigray forced them to Christianity, Geez which is the latin equivalent for Tigray and Agew. The whole Amhara kilil is 23 million and Islam is 20% at the most, how could it be 11 million. In Ethiopia only 2 kilil have 90% or more Muslim. Afar and Somali. The rest is all less than half and some even less than 10%. It is just number is not important. Is not directly related to influence. Tigray has lowest percentage of Muslims, yet no body in his right mind will tell you that Muslims are less than 50% in Tigray. Since they are in every government or business positions as Tigray in Ethiopia. Oromo maybe about 15 million Muslims, but they are no where visible in government or business as even quarter of Tigray Muslims. The number of Somalis..Muslims is same as Tigray (mixed), the number of Afar..again almost all Muslim is third of Tigray (mixed)..etc. Pente (American religion) is the new force in Ethiopia in same position now with Muslim influence wise. If it was not for Tigray who hardly has Pente and Amhara who have little of it, Pente would be top in Ethiopia. Christians and Muslim are divided in themselves. Most Oromo Muslim are Wahabi. The rest are not. Just some information for you. I felt your information is bit dated regarding Amhara..
  17. This also has to be done by outsiders. I guess this has to be speeded up as well before Eritrea or UAE return to Somalia. Next time every village will go to Kenya, Uganda, Eritrea, Ethiopia..to remove its warlord. Very sad. I know most of you don't accept it, but Somaliland is the least dependent on outsiders including during the USC, USSDF, SNM and others days. They always had and still have red lines on Somali nomad freedom and if not possible autonomy.
  18. Then same day the Federal (that is another story) intervened. What was planned little chaos and damages got out of hand and ended up about 50 shops and offices destroyed looted and more than 10 churches burned. The Somali image that was on the up and up in Ethiopia has been set back some 15-20 years Information is leaking now that Iley was to leave office in 7 days and remain only as chairman of party, the position Ahmed Shide has. 5 persons from kilil and diaspora were made aware of this. One of ESPDP main function was to fight for Dirdhaba and area. Which is why there were about 11 CC members in the city and the first once to be cleaned out after the coup. 2 of the elders that praised PM Abiy and spoke about undemocratic Kilil dictatorship were Oromo full Oromo Pretty soon we might also learn about some others. The Daughter of the Kuwaiti Ambassador to USA, the one who spoke of having been in Kwait hospital (she had not been to kwait 6 years), as a nurse seeing Iraqi soldiers throwing away babies in incubators (she was not nurse, she was not in Kwait at the time she was resident of Washington DC).
  19. This is a demonstration in Jigjiga. Its probably 60-100 people all together. You be the judge if they are Somali or not or a good mix. All slogans are in Amharic Calling the Federal government to intervene and overthrow the Somali kilil government is most repeated in 3 ways: 1. We are also Ethiopians treat us equal change our government as you changed in Oromo and South (one was changed 1.5 years ago the other 3 months ago on their own) 2. we want Liyu eliminated 2. Federal Government come save us from this government how can you leave us in this condition
  20. He is moving in to some of this Shenanigan. For sure he will have better situation in Shinnile etc since the Oromo can tell them to calm down as they were used against Iley. In simple terms: Our demands are as follows: - Presidency or co-presidency or ONE vice presidency with tangible powers - 40% of regional budget - separate police and defense force Nothing less than this is acceptable to Beelweynta Cisse. Sorry admin. Just copied what was posted.
  21. Somalia needs Federalism for the same reason India or Canada or Nigeria needed. Its very weird to explain to an outsider since Somali is one Ethnic, One language, One Religion population. For you its easy. Somalis have had different levels of governance/state before the Europeans arrived. From a sub-sub clan chief governing some areas to the most advanced kingdom/Boqor with standing army, tax collection, governmental services similar to what even Europeans had (except for the empires). On top of that you have the British system and the Italian system. The Sultanates were also fresh not forgotten experience. You will never find a unitary government system that can govern and develop these disparate enclaves except a dictatorship so wealthy and so powerful that can move a whole tribe from place to place, destroy a city if needed for road or dam and nobody to stop it rightly or wrongly...etc. To me its that simple. Example: sorrry...Ethiopia. The Amhara have about same number of Ethnics in their kilil as the Somali have clans and even sub clans in Kililka. The Amhara kilil was never one unit governed before EPRDF just like kililka. The only difference is in Amhara kilil all the zones were either kingdoms themselves or semi kingdoms Sultan/Ras ruled/governed. In kililka its all mixed. An attempt was made to keep the districts, zones close to sub-clans...but then a sub-clan splits politically and goes to different camps by sub-sub-sub clan since did not have governance experience as sub clan. I hope my attempt was worth your read. And tell me if it contributed to your understanding of Somali people and Federalism.
  22. I think adnaan is overwhelmed how good SOL is by many successful leaders, businessmen, community activists, socially responsible participants. He is guessing that I am a Tigray person if not AI... adnaan, A lot have changed. Both the Somali and Tigray and Djibouti and Sudan and mostly Somalia are all now trying to survive mostly under the radar. You should also have noticed that Daniel Berhane is just an Ethiopian and that is it. Its just group of like minded Eritreans, Somali, that are part of the magazine.
  23. My friend. Federalism works like that the best. States standing up against the federal government and fighting for every penny, every litre of water, every asprin, every center of the federal construction, every km of road from federal... When states always complaining not getting enough..pushes the country forward. Whether in Europe, Asia or the Americas Federal countries are all like that. Its main reason to have Federal system.
  24. Attempts are being made to involve Ethiopia not realizing that even with the changes in Ethiopia, it will never interfere with Kenya. The Oromo authorities would love to dismantle Jubaland and reshape it to their whim, but Kenya is more important to them at this time. Might have to wait for Eritrea which is even much worst in this case. Its UAE as well.
  25. If he had this idea, why did he make his first mission to dismantle Puntland, before even reaching Mogadishu from Djibouti? That illusive power which he never exorcised except to prevent SFG by terrorist methods from succeeding where he failed.