No need t risk fortune telling when you have reality in your face. Eritrea is not new to Somalia. Personal grudges with dictators are important factor in diplomacy and actions there. Eritrea/Isayas from past experience with Somalia: 1. He prefers one f the houses in Mogadishu with govt to al-shabab that has been his preference 2. He had his disappointments with both Somaliland and Puntland as far as ONLF or other past conflicts are concerned. Isayas will never forget the indirect exchange he had with Adde Muse about what Isayas did in 2006 and Isayas country men did with the Boqor. 3. Djibouti will always remain competition and winner to Eritrea, but now has added bonus of Eritrea pleasing UAE. 4. For first time Eritrea is troubled with ONLF. They don't want to let go of such valuable asset/friend, but ONLF would rather be found dead than work with any Oromo organization which Eritrea needs now more than anything in the world. 5. Ethiopia right now can't delay any american or UAE orders let alone to say NO or say Its difficult... These I think are facts you can agree with.

I don't think its valid since the president of Puntland is elected according to their system and the activist could say he is against federalism, but cannot say he is against Puntland as state. I am sure in this face book age any one with some catchy phrase and pocket full can overthrow governments.

Here are 3 reasons Somalia is even called: 1. Somalia has seat at UN and IGAD and unlike Djibouti or Sudan or Kenya Eritrea and Ethiopia can pressure or manipulate easily. Why would Isayas who openly spoke about Suakin by naming Turkey be so so with Mogadishu? 2. Eritrea has plan to find a job for its soldiers 300,000 of them. War in Yemen can only take some, but peace keeping in Somalia can take 30-40 thousand if they get OK from US and UAE will contribute or pay the bill. Eritrea then displaces Djibouti, Ethiopia and Kenya and has monopoly on Somalia. 3. Eritrea can then try and play dirty with Puntland and Somaliland to make them third step and disrupt what ever plans UAE has ports. Chock Djibouti by creating problems with ONLF or Shinnile and take more of Ethiopia. Here controls both Djibouti and Ethiopia. The Oromo need Eritrea a lot in the internal affairs with Tigray and Amhara. If you are thinking of fuzzy business before putting your house in order, You must be in the clouds. Ask yurself this: How many times have we seen Eritrea Sudan hugging, boxing, then kissing, then threatening..all the time. That is typical African diplomacy, but here there is UAE with strategy and money and everyone is saying how high to jump. Its so funny. All the talk and your thinking is always Tigray this Tigray that. You are not alone. Both Eritrea and Ethiopians are also the same. It looks like only US knows what has happened.

Farmaajo is just trying to show that he cares about Somalis and he is the biggest Somali leader of anywhere. ONLF does not need Farmaajo, except if they want to keep their fighters as Somalia militia instead of handing to Ethiopia. I don't think he will have the strength to do anything like that. ONLF should only stop military confrontations, but keep a force in this volitile situation where any leader change in these countries can change the situation.

They don't need to. The constitution permits you to campaign for self determination as long as you do it peacefully no guns.

Ethiopia is not neutral. Is in Eritrea's corner. 3.7 billion can do that very easily to an african country.

MMA, Thinking of me/Tigray just twisted and distorted all your thoughts. You don't have to go opposite to everything I said. Facts: Turkey is not impressed with Farmaajo Eritrea and Ethiopia are begging Djibouti since threatening did not work to lift sanctions Ethiopia may have warm fuzzy dance with Eritrea right now, wouldn't you dance for 3.7 billion, But as long as Eritreas interest is vendeta on the Afar and Tigray and Djibouti this relation is not guaranteed. I have on good information Berbera is ON. Not only Berbera, but Lamu is ON as well. Two tribes by the sea in Kenya just declared they are long lost Oromo from 600 years. Americans will not allow arms embargo on Somalia to be lifted at this time as long as Turkey situation is not straightened, since Somalia can only buy from Turkey through credit second hand etc. Turkey just exported 8billion worth of arms in 9 months. Djibouti unlike other Somalis keeps low profile hard to know for anyone what he is doing. Excellent relation with Saudi Arabia. I did not mean to take you away from your train of thought on what I say.

Farmaajo is blocking Somaliland and becoming himself the UAE water-boy. He already risked Turkey who is target of UAE/EGYPT/ERITREA for its base in Suakin. In the small Arab fracas competition Saudi UAE he also sides with UAE. Saudis are neutral between Djibouti and UAE in practice. Farmaajo is now full time UAE water boy club member. Ethiopia and Eritrea must have frightened the day lights out of him. He might try to be on Abiy good side in case of ONLF. Regardless what he shows diplomatic to ONLF he is against them even connected to Jubaland case internally.

Exactly. If these people were serious about their home country then could have lived with green card, could have travelled with passport for immigrants same as US citizens just small difference inside. They wanted American citizenship so they don't get arrested in their birth countries and if arrested there is governments asking for them.

Spliting the Somali kilil into two and then making a special federal zone is the solution preferred by Oromo. It has been in the works for long time. Some Illey/new president clan might prefer it. Somalis have been drag on each other when one is looking towards Somalia another looks towards Ethiopia, and then exchange places and do the same for 150 years. Maybe a lot of people from all Somali tribes are giving up. It has been too high a price to pay. The main reason for this is there is no Somalia to look up to. Remember there is no free lunch. The Oromo removed Iley for you (those of you who just wanted Iley removed at any price) and they need to get paid for that service. Since you did not remove him yourself and begged the Oromo to do it for you now is accounting time.

What do they think we have become? They are gathering simply how to implement what UAE wants them to do, what America allows them to do and what each of them as chieftains can include their personal wishes needs wants under the UAE grand plan. That is the bottom line. Ethiopia has same trade agreements with Djibouti Kenya and Sudan...do you see anyone of them? Do you see Isayas making friends with Sudan, Kenya, Djibouti? There is no meaningful economy talk without those three.

galbeedi, I hate to be negative or bearer of bad news, but in these difficult times let alone peoples who most times lived in kind of limbo, even peoples that always lived as Somali are weighing their options not to miss an opportunity to gain something. Some are even saying we intermarried, we have same faith..etc the usual things that people don't argue against. If you don't have your house in order and you are not competitive, you cannot attract business.

I actually had another question before that big one you are asking: Who brought Aideed from India to USC? Who agreed for Egypt to have military base and settle its population in Somalia? Its very clear you are not happy with Turkey, even though you like the money from Qatar and even UAE. Turkey is very disappointed with Farmaajo to for not doing his part fast and complete. Who may be preventing him? Don't say Eritrea its recent phenomenon.From now on you can say Eritrea, Ethiopia and UAE their master are obstructing and that is believable.

One fat question to all of you consultants, experts of the world here including new v/p of kililka: Does America hire its soldiers from Yale? Does Britain hire its special forces from Cambridge or Oxford? Does france hire its foreign legion from Ecole Technique? Does Ethiopia hire its special forces from Addis Ababa university? It has become a fashion to say illiterate, nomad...etc and everybody clapping hands yet I would not trust my security to Oodweyne or galbeedi here than the nomad when it comes to it. Training should have been better needs improvement is one thing, saying the Liyu are nomads, illiterates..etc has only one objective, that is to serve the wishes of those who always were against the idea in Ethiopia.

Or 91 all over again. As soon as he arrests them Mugadishu gys will call emergency session and take the presidency from him.

Dahireeto, Is that you? What happened my friend, you are blaming, or worst yet expecting the Oromo to get inside and balance clans. When are kililka people to blame and praise each other. Before we were all saying Tigray Tigray as if they get into every Somali kitchen and now we have to Say Oromo Oromo. Its about time the Somali think at least autonomously. The biggest loss for the Somali in all this is the autonomy. Guess what the first person removed was in charge of Education, then Social and womens affairs, then TV...those were areas where the autonomy was fairly achieved and were targets of Ethiopianists. The clans you mentioned will be better off focusing on the Federal share of the Somali and also in Djibouti.

That is true, but the Amhara might benefit more from it, so is unlikely it will be allowed higher positions.

Your fear is already happening and it has been happening for last 2 years now. The only thing left is bring it from face book to the ground. The Oromo will speed it up as they want to finish the issue of Dirdhaba and also the trade route. They will make sure who ever is in the trade route looks up to them for help and for interference. They might leave alone the rest to sort itself as long as final say is theirs.

If any people allow a coup against whom they elected overwhelmingly some months before, to stand just because he can get them few billions of gift, loan, deserve what they get. Al Sisi has achieved few things for Egypt: 1. Saved country from total chaos as America would have come with pressures just like Turkey now and Egypt would not last a week would have been chaos as daily bread is subsidized by America. 2. By closely allying with Saudi/UAE has weakened the threat from ISIS and also with Israel to prevent what Israel did in Syria is not done in Sinai Egypt and mainland. 3. He again by Allying with UAE and Eritrea has overthrown regime in Ethiopia and already GERD may even be abandoned or at least limited its capacity as Egypt wanted. 4. By allying with Uganda he has tamed Sudan in Sauth Sudan and next might tame Ethiopia and Kenya there for the economy.

The whole thing comes down to No. 1 and maybe with less importance no.2 which both are one and the same.

That is exactly what happens. Those in opposition clan wise were first to align with EPRDF Tigray back in the days when your cousins were Against EPRDF. Then EPRDF changed side, but still did not throw out these folks. The kilil was left to the prevous opposition and the Federal portion of the Somali was given mainly to the first allies. If you do this one too many times, then the connection you had gets broken beyond repair. Since the Oromo have more far reaching objectives than Tigray and one Somali side is aligned with them, the Oromo now don't see the need to work with the ONLF/Iley/WSLF side. The Oromo are now under influence of OLF/QERO there fore this group is seen as permanent enemy and thus be weakened broken. The Oromo have no interest, its actually against their interest to make the two parts of Somalis to work together unlike the Tigray. The Tigray had also respectable relations with both Djibouti and Somaliland who have shared people in Kililka. The Oromo want to cut this and replace Djibouti and if possible Somaliland with themselves.

Its more far reaching than what you listed. If we accept everything is clan then we also need to accept that some clans most of what you listed did not fight against Iley as Somalis, but as Oromo including the hand signal to the smallest sign was all close to Oromo. The Only Oromo issue with Iley was don't block us from these people. Let us work with them lead them. That has been achieved. Mustafe and Iley maybe from same clan, but one is pro Oromo another was pro Tigray. The Tigray interest was to rule Ethiopia. The same is Oromo interest. The Tigray interest on Somali and Oromo interest on Somali of course are different and their methods are different.

There is no way sugar coating this one. Plain and simple this part of the Somali is gone. Now its modestly stated friendship with Oromo. Next is "we prefer our area to be with Oromo as special area which is common in Ethiopia. The slogan is "we got rid of a brutal, nazi, dictator from such and such clan. We got rid of regime that had put us in conflict with our soul and meat brother Oromo We got rid of Somali dictator to establish democratic egalitarian Gada system with Oromo to live happily ever after The bottom line is that the Oromo now directly and indirectly control the trade route.

Its just an example: And most Somalis are aware of Hareri and the big powers of Somali, Oromo, Amhara in and around them.

The Oromo do not want ONLF. Will never do. That is why they got their Oromos first armed western Ethiopia, but now are saying everyone disarmed. Eritrea is hanging on to ONLF just in case the Oromo like the Tigray before them start to go astray against their dictator. Xaaji, don't kid yourself with this propaganda. I bet you if British, American..don't want the oil out will get ONLF in a week active.