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Everything posted by Old_Observer
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Where else could they go? The whole IOC countries are either fighting each other or grouped each other different camps. If it was going to be meaningful they would have done it in Turkey and pass resolutions that mean something on Yemen, on Palestinians...
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Oh, you have to picture that one.
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Neither one is working. The Federal government does not have problem of Federalism to control Mogadishu. If it had done so then would have been in a position to knock down the regions one ladder down. But this way at least some areas will have government and that is better than the whole country being collection of districts changing presidents all the time.
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Oil business is the worst kind for you at this time. Look what it has done to kililka. Look what it did to Somalia in 1991-92. Unless you have enough pre-paid royalty to bribe every Shiek, Haj, President Martin...etc in the Horn of Africa, Oil is no good. Stay with infrastructure, agriculture,shipping, trade..which are good for all times.
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This country is going somewhere. A decade from now it will be one of the 4-5 most influential countries. Somalia better forget this Saudi/AUE and move openly and no ambiguity with this camp. Failing that cut everything and move openly with UAE.
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Iranians have long tradition of Empire. Sometimes down some times up, like any Empire or kingdom worth its salt, but with the core never lost so they come back. Its not like the Adal that shows up creates chaos in all the regions and ones down disappears never to come back again. Arabs don't have their own system of governance. Iranians/Persians have their system of governance even when colonized was not lost. Example: Iran has an active Jews community with members of Iran parliament You won't see this in single Arab country, which some of them had more active Jews than Iran had before.
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Unless both realize that respect from Mogadishu will come only if they have strong province/state. Federalism only works well if you are strong in your home base/province.
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DP World's New Berbera Port Development - Ground breaking ceremony
Old_Observer replied to Suldaanka's topic in Politics
Best opportunity for UAE. Remember that UAE and Saudis compete and even sabotage each other like in Yemen. If UAE was to take the lead in Yemen, the war would have been done in a week. They would have bribed their way out of it. UAE was feeling that the Saudi Prince was behaving cocky. For public consumption of course they want to show solidarity and prevent Turkey from becoming protector of the Holy Places. -
Aisha Mohamed is the new defense minister of Ethiopia
Old_Observer replied to Dahireeto's topic in Politics
It is looking that way every passing day. He tried to work with some Amhara groups, but what he got is total rejection and fear. Now the campaign against him is that mostly "he is Islamist inside". This is something the Tigray would not do no matter if they hated him to death and he looks like given up in finding any group that would work with him from the Amhara side. Making the Afar defense minister rather than others have deeper reasons than it looks. Its more than her being woman, Muslim. Being a woman was shock to evreybody since we are conservative and backwards in many ways. That is common. Being a Muslim is headache only to some. I have seen an activist say Samora just left after 17 years of total control and now comes a minister. Ethiopia is getting used to Islam in all places of power and influence. For all sides of Somalis this was bad, but was expected. Finance minister is an Ethiopian from Somali kilil not a Somali in Ethiopia. That is the difference. But even worst was expected. Oil and Gas is bad news everywhere, kililka no exception. -
Too many hijackings, assassinations, Kidnappings, jails..caught up with the young man. Hopefully the people of Yemen will get some peace out of all this. Qatar gulf issue as well cooled down and countries like Somalia would get relief from so many unnecessary work. Turkey will come out on top of everybody as protecting the importance of the Holy places, but punishing the family that has made grave mistakes in Yemen, and even in Syria and Iraq by allying with Kurds by America and Israel ways, attempting to deny base for Turkey in Qatar and Sudan...etc.
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Aisha Mohamed is the new defense minister of Ethiopia
Old_Observer replied to Dahireeto's topic in Politics
Sorry its the Oromo Liyu they call Fetno. Jawar cannot be a government official since he is American citizen. All Ethiopian politicians that came back, not a single one has been able to register a party or group, since all have foreign citizenship and is not allowed in Ethiopia. Of the 25-30 parties you see making noise only one was able to register. An Affar party since its leaders did not take foreign citizenship. Ethiopia so far is staying afloat by UAE. The finances have actually improved. Inflation is very high and all that unemployed is still unemployed, very easy to change direction. The incident with the soldiers might become bigger than what it was. The changing stories is looking very bad. There is one fact all the players know in Ethiopia. Even if somebody takes control of the capital they cannot bring regime change. KIlils are very strong. If there is coup will be end of the country. On the other hand there are forces that will never come to power unless by coup, like Amhara for example. The incident did not look like a coup. It may be for distraction news. Is being used to give Oromo even more. The PM mentioned Oromo groups that were ready to come and defend him. The Amhara are extremely unhappy with him not mentioning any Amhara areas. The Oromo have big problem in their backyard. Very strong competition among themselves. Each group is still trying to find allies outside Oromo. That is why as you said trying to get support of Afar, Somali becoming important. Any Oromo group trying to Ally with Amhara cannot do it openly. Tigray are still relevant so each Oromo side including Jawar are very careful about them. Every group had dissatisfaction about ministers, but not a single group or even individuals would even remotely mention the Defense minister. She is the exception the surprise and most welcomed surprise. Many believe being an Afar she will have total welcome and support by Tigray generals and that means the Army will stay fairly united and disciplined somewhat less affected by different groups. -
Aisha Mohamed is the new defense minister of Ethiopia
Old_Observer replied to Dahireeto's topic in Politics
The Oromo are doing exactly what the Tigray used to do except with the Somali population. Things in Ethiopia over all and kiilka are still in yellow. Not clear yet. Jawar side is the biggest winner, but still acting unhappy, wants more. He is big winner in Oromo kilil as well in charge of Security, Militia, Liyu...etc. The Amhara are acting as biggest loser on this. It maybe true, since Tigray are acting neutral. -
Aisha Mohamed is the new defense minister of Ethiopia
Old_Observer replied to Dahireeto's topic in Politics
I think the share of Islam is much higher than that and the share of Traditional faiths is also higher than that. Christianity numbers are too high in this information. -
MBS is in trouble. His days as Crown Prince may be numbered.
Old_Observer replied to Dahireeto's topic in Politics
Everybody seems to be looking for way out of this. Most of all America. There are some countries who would want regime change including Britain, China, Turkey..but America will do what is possible to protect its oil shop. Since the Regime in the kingdom has leverage of oil and havoc in world economy and Russia, Iran, Turkey may want this it is very likely a way out will be found without regime change. Jouranlists,are ready with pen and paper on hand to share in the biggest investment the Prince will do, make over. -
UK government denies funding the liyuu kilil militia.
Old_Observer replied to Xaaji Xunjuf's topic in Politics
Britain may have trained some Liyu, but as part of the general Police training in Ethiopia starting with Federal police, but not specifically program just for Liyu. -
When you see small and big territories leaders not competing with Economic big plans big ideas, it means they are getting in there to perpetuate the existing and have their turn at the telly. That may need war to defend it or perpetuate it. Puntland/Somaliland should avoid war by all means. galbeedi, Anyone that is not clear on Federal or unitary or wants both sides is not a winner. Federal folks in Mugadishu may want war to be in the north rather than other places to dump all problems on that war. It looks very unlikely.
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In order one to be king of Saudi Arabia: 1. President of USA 2. Most of the family Saud 3. General opinion people, some countries In Order to be President of USA 1. Lobby strong one of small country 2. wealthy americans and deep state 3. general opinion created by 2 above Rumor has it that the deep state in America no good for young Salman. The UAE might use the small competition with KSA this time. I hope 3 things will come out of this: 1. War in Yemen to stop 2. Turkey in better position to close the Syria Iraq areas 3. Turkey to return to Sudan, Somalia, Ethiopia and be active again
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DP World's New Berbera Port Development - Ground breaking ceremony
Old_Observer replied to Suldaanka's topic in Politics
All Somaliland flags in all shapes and styles are here on this thread now. I am adding Djibouti flag. Tried to add new/old kililka flag and did not work. Either one or the other. Its great opportunity for Kililka people. It might even transform the economy of the kilil. Most of the logistical work, road work, gas stations, rest areas, trucking business until railroad is built in a decade or less is expected...It all looks good. Djibouti is very happy the business went to Somaliland and not Eritrea. So all in all good for the Somali people. -
Don't sweat that my friend. The Saudis have America by the neck...money. The Saudis are not like us third world they are most wanted country even by Russia. British would love to have more role as they were before America displaced them. Democrats are actually more in the pocket than Republicans to the Saudis. If the price of oil goes over 100 then America could be in deep deep recession. All the Saudi need to do is blow up one of their lines and blame Iran or somebody...and Trump or anyone will be begging Iran to pump as much oil as they need. America would even remove its military from Iran borders. Nobody is going to risk anything this big for Kasshoggi. The Americans are making some noise just to cover the Yemen issue that is becoming bigger and bigger by the day. Failure is facing them and Saudis. All the exercise they did about Eritrea for the Hudeida..still empty. Now they have decided to send Africans..poor ones not known from which countries...Sudan is being mentioned by Eritreans maybe to hide theirs.
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Why should turkey do anything other than formality here? If Tukey had to speak something remotely aginst the Saudis, should have been about Yemen. UAE taking islands, Saudis killing children and women. Turkey has been in Yemen and they have population there. At the very least Turkey should have tried negotiated settlement of Yemen. This Kashoggi thing smells something to scandalize Turkey.
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This International Development is a strong arm in the common wealth countries, British Empire. The foreign office is formal. This ID is informal, on the ground, practical where rubber meets road. Now that the port business is going ahead, all countries who don't have beach head in Djibouti will be tripping each other to Somaliland. Too high a price to pay in Yemen and too uncertain in Eritrea. Being close to Djibouti is unavoidable to anyone worth their pants these days.
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TPLF re-elects the old guard to the Executive Committee
Old_Observer replied to Che -Guevara's topic in Politics
But have you ever thought that Abiy Ahmed and Lema would loose in Oromo kilil if the election was called today or soon? That is the reality right now. That is why they PM and Co. still need Tigray. There was an old woman talking in TPLF conference telling them that Tigray always loses itself and fixes Ethiopia. All of you the educated the hard working went to Ethiopia forgot about us and see what you get. Our kings and Emperorsa also did the same in the past. It was very interesting. TPLF even the connected ones in Addis are not running there now, since they can lose their heads at home. Nothing is consolidated its all in flux...day to day affair in Ethiopia and Eritrea. . galbeedi, You live in Canada and always make mistake with numbers. Isn't one small province that stopped an agreement that was approved by all Canada to modify the constitution some 2 decades ago? Even the Hareri, smallest kilil in Ethiopia has power of veto on certain parts of the constitution. Plus Tigray never had more than 3-4 ministers and they still have that much. The only kilils that are relatively problem or incident free are so far Afar and Tigray. go figure. -
Where was this kind of thoughtful outlook when kililka was in termoil with Ethiopian fake revolution, but change of tribes? You were completely off track as far as Somalis interests and conditions. Yes Maybe America or British set up the whole thing to make Turkey victim of Terrorists of Saudi Arabia controlled groups. Good eye good observation.
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