Agreed but too many to bribe at home, too complex to mange outsiders. Best thing leave oil and gas under ground or sea and move on with something that will deny others the manpower to recruit. Oil in Ethiopia was found before that of Saudi Arabia and has caused overthrow of so many from power. You might see 2-3 federal states appearing in that part of Somalia soon. 10% 20% is a big deal.

Could we be seeing Ghelleh winning again by everything that was supposed to be aginst him. The best card for Gelleh is everything up to 20% of Ethiopians business goes to Berbera. Eritrea is shut out no economic benefit after all this mileage. Since Berbera is Indian ocean more than Red sea, a port that can operate even if the red sea is shutdown, even Eritrea may have to use it in time of war. Every other post will need billions in investment and years of development. Berbera can be used by putting some make up. There may come a day soon where Ghelleh may invest in Berbera maybe through twist.

Ghelleh has more cards than anyone of these Amigos combined. Just freezing the port costs for Ethiopia he made sure that Eritrea will not be competitive. He does not need any new investment. Berbera is hundred times ready and hundred times profitable than Eritrean ports. The key is all of them need new investment, Ghelleh has built everything he needs to be no.1 for at least a decade or two. Berebera seems to have clinched 2nd. Ghelleh should be happiest with such results. Ghelleh only worry is USA. That he may need French, British help which he seems to have found it. The smartest man without any formal PhD. Britain is in his corner now. Qatar behind the scenes may also be in his corner. Saudis will not do anything against him.

Some politicians are successful at creating developing that aura image. Sharif has mastered that. Even Tillamook can't trust his own shadow now. It will be hard to pull off, but Farmaajo has only one option. Jump ship to UAE and fully join Isayas and Abiy who will take care of the Sharifs of Somalia.

The main purpose of this dog and pony show is Djibouti and Sudan. Of course each of these Amigos has mountain of problem at home and can be 2-3 days to make a show that they are powerful influential etc and not just water carriers for UAE. Eritreans have a cartoon that shows Isayas only smiles when he crosses the border on his way out of the country. The Arabs are already focused on something else as seen by UAE in Somaliland which has made Isayas already suspicious.

It is already a waste. The two of three Amigos are full time no holds barred UAE. The third Amigo cannot be. He cannot walk like them, he cannot do what they do, he cannot play the same game they do. The meeting maybe in Mogadishu, but expect something unexpected. All three are hiding something in their home countries. Major problems. There is no pressing need for Farmaajo to go against Djibouti which is the main work of the Amigos.

Oil and Gas are not products you deal with when you have political problems. These are most dangerous products even when you have stable situation. Agriculture should be more preferred than Oil. Agriculture will create jobs, feed oneself and feed Arabs. Then every one has interest in your stability and peace since you are food source. With all the problems, nobody Arab will do ill to Sudan.

Until 3 weeks ago all three were sending their ministers non stop to Djibouti. Once Isayas got his sanctions relief, now comes the true intentions of the whole thing. The real purpose comes now. UAE fight with Djibouti. What could there be any meaningful relation between Ethiopia Somalia Eritrea that does not involve Djibouti? none what so ever. Isayas may want to appear the strongest man, but that what dictators show until the bottom falls off. In Ethiopia the question is why the secrecy of what they talk about. Are they afraid Turkey or Qatar lol or somebody else. Ethiopia at the moment has more Economic interest in Djibouti than any other country. Next is Sudan where Ethiopia gets all its fuel. Yet these two countries are not welcome by Isayas and Abiy and Farmaajo are bystanders in this small game. Its most dangerous for Ethiopia. Djibouti is a lifeline the Americans want to either control and kick out Chinese or destroy.

They are the ship. They cannot jump to another ship. Only if you are passenger or crew of a ship can you jump ship.

What happened to the constitution issue that was so hot when they wanted to get rid of a speaker? Without that even a temporary one, things will get worst. Bad or good there has to be something agreed by most people. Otherwise every group will rely on foreigners. Eritrea is coming out of the cold too and Ethiopia has taken to UAE with no exit possibility, going deeper everyday.

19th century all over again. At least those days the traditional methods worked. Now no traditional method, but traditional people. Unfortunately for one group Kenya is not like Uganda, it has vested interest in every thing that happens in that neighborhood. Uganda, Eritrea...are just either individual dictator interest or being messengers of someone else. This seesaw can only improve if the sides asked help to solve or reconcile by Djibouti, Somaliland elders, professors.chaired some conference in center of country. The question is nobody will finance such a thing.

Federal will have to promise ministerial or at least ambassador to UAE or Qatar or Saudi Arabia, position to Sherif to endorse their candidate. A lot of local MPs ...

Its time to be Oromo, at least in South part of Ethiopia. No body knows how long or how deep since Oromo themselves are already showing division. They don't seem to want to risk with either side in kililka. Its too big of a risk to take when things are not clear yet.

There was an Amin Amir Cartoon when UIC and others were in Asmara in 2006. It showed the two Sherifs complaining about Tigray. Young Aidiid comes and tells them there is more Tigray power here than in Ethiopia.

But you already have the Eritrea Tigray. In Ethiopia so far looks the Oromo are just replacing Tigray on top spots, but not much more. The Eritrea Tigray may not bod well for Somalia, since was embarrassed/humiliated by some.

Aren't you also bragging with your alliance?

That is what I thought. He survived all kinds of testing situations where others would have just folded. He survived Addis Ababa, Mugadishu, Asmera Eritrea, Djibouti. He will still be a significant man and play in the UAE Qatar if there is room there. Somebody will appoint him to something important.

A Nigerian has been elected to senate in Italy. No Libyan, no Eritrea, no Somali has done that yet. Canada has shown the way. Maybe Australia or 2nd generation South Africa (if it doesn't blow up and go south) will be next.

Those positions are also where people sharpen their teeth for higher offices.

Not this time. The Welayta are not in a hurry, the Gurage have been told by their supposed leader of Ginbot 7 to not seek Kilil. It will disadvantage them since they are scattered everywhere. They want unitary governance.

I am here. You know that. As for your Tigray friends lol, they seem to be busy with Eritrea. Who knows either peace and prosperity or war soon. Eritrea have said that Ethiopia must get rid of the Federalka system. This was expected since the ports, minerals known and going so far are not in the territory of the Tigray of Eritrea.

This AMISOM thing is another project that has been over-milked. Unless Eritrea wants to come as AMISOM, then UAE, Eritrea, Ethiopia will want to get rid of Amisom.

That is possible if Abiy gets some support from locals. He prefers unitary, but seemingly impossible now in Ethiopia. The Sidama have been wanting this for 17 years. Intialy they did not have capacity to set up kililka. There us some criterion of capacity.

Hello Mooge, Oromo boy so far has been faithful to: 1. His faith the government now has a lot more Pente (protestants) 2. His side of the Oromo the Amharaized (galbeedi grouping), but conflict with western side 3. Very loyal to UAE and Eritrea 4. Most Amhara have withdrawn or doubt support 5. Enough Tigray around him, less Somalis than ever before 6. Prefers unitary, but Federalka is so far unmovable

Not this time. Sidama is only one that becomes a state. 3 others have become zone from special district.