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Everything posted by Old_Observer
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The little villages are the ones that influence the elder/rep of their area. Amazingly Puntland is more democratic and wider base for the system/representative democracy. The rep/elder cannot vote against his village. That is the trick.
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You must have a good understanding how these things happen. In the 19-20 Century that is exactly what happened in Ethiopia. There were 3 houses competing. Amxara,center Tigray north east and Agew north west Kingdoms. The two were just like the Boqor in Puntland fought against Europeans and when the Europeans all of them became friends with Amxara Menelik he became winner of what is left of Europeans. He signed about 20 agreements in all with Italy, France, Britain. He agreed to 1500 km of sea shore to be taken by Europeans not an inch for Ethiopia left. He agreed all around borders with all of them district or mountain at a time, what ever they wanted. He remained king of what is left and never afraid the Europeans. Conditions: British never to continue their friendship with Tigray. The Italians never to reconcile with Tigray never help. The French never to help the Afar Sulatnas (mostly part of Tigray) that were against Menelik. If Farmaajo can play it in the 21st century which looks like..he would be repeating, but his chances of success are reduced by multiple.
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You are not alone. The story is a congress man who was in Amxaru camp wrote a letter asking for Assefa to be listed with Maginisky act, but guess what? That Congressman lost his seat in the recent election. The Amxaru have not found another one that will go that far to bat for them. They may have to bring a more beautiful woman or a big bundle of cash. Every anti-Tigray seems to be jumping the gun or making his own list these days on the cheap internet.
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Everyone is so afraid of the Tigrays especially the one in Eritrea and Ethiopia they are throwing anything at them. Some will stick some will be forgotten. The only problem for the likes of Somalia is it is not going to stick, but the rift and animosity out of this will be so big no compromises, not even people talk to each other. After accusations like this, the next step is only physical killing nothing in between.
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The most important issue for Somalia is bad or good, has to have constitution. Farmaajo is now convinced by Isayas and Abiy to go for unitary system and keep constitution on hold. Abiy is finding out that even weak federalism in Ethiopia is so powerful that some regions are like countries. For Somalia this is dead end. Another generation wasted on unitary and federal. Yes Federal is hard to maintain, but people in general are more happy than unitary ones. All politics is local if you don't control our local affairs you are no body in politics. Mr. Jawaharri was removed for the constitution work, but now people have forgotten already and and after few face book posts SFG has filed it away.
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George Soros’s Open Society Foundation says it will cease operations in Turkey, days after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan accused the billionaire philanthropist of trying to divide and destroy nations. The organization said it was no longer possible to work in Turkey after it became the target of “baseless claims” in the media and a renewed investigation by Turkish authorities into mass protests against Erdogan’s government five years ago. It said the Turkish Interior Ministry was renewing attempts to prove that the Soros foundation was behind the 2013 Gezi Park protests, one of the biggest political challenges to Erdogan’s 15-year rule. The foundation denied any link to the protests. Erdogan denounced Soros last week while speaking of the detention of 13 activists and academics accused of supporting attempts by jailed businessman and rights advocate Osman Kavala to revive the Gezi protests. “The person (Kavala) who financed terrorists during the Gezi incidents is already in prison,” Erdogan told a meeting of local administrators on Wednesday. “And who is behind him? The famous Hungarian Jew Soros. This is a man who assigns people to divide nations and shatter them. He has so much money and he spends it this way.” PressTV-Erdogan accuses Soros of aiding Turkish philanthropist The jailed philanthropist faces hugely controversial charges of seeking to overthrow the government. One of the 13 people detained on November 16 was Hakin Altinay, who helped establish the Open Society Foundation in Turkey. Others were staff members of Kavala’s Anadolu Kultur center, which campaigns for human rights and cultural diversity. All but one of the detainees were later released, but not before the European Union and United States expressed concern about their cases. Ankara’s Western allies have repeatedly criticized the arrest of tens of thousands of people since a failed military coup in Turkey in July 2016. Money transfers Kavala, in detention for more than a year, said on Monday in a statement posted on his website that he was still waiting for an indictment to be prepared so that he could prove that the claims he had helped to direct and finance the Gezi protests and wanted to overthrow the government were “unfounded." The pro-government Sabah newspaper, citing reports from financial crime investigators, said on Monday the Open Society Foundation had made financial transfers to Kavala’s organization to support the spread of the Gezi protests nationwide. It said nearly 1.9 million lira had been transferred between August 2011 and April 2017. The foundation said it informed the Turkish authorities every year about which institutions and projects had received donations, and the authorities had approved them. “However, with the new investigations that have been opened, it is seen that there is an effort to link the Open Society Foundation to the Gezi incidents in 2013. These efforts are not new and they are outside reality,” it said. The foundation said it would apply for the legal liquidation and winding up of the company’s operations as soon as possible. “The increase of baseless claims and disproportionate speculation in the media in recent days has made it impossible for the foundation to continue its operations.” Soros, a US-based financier and philanthropist, and his Open Society Foundation have also come under fire in Hungary. Prime Minister Viktor Orban accuses Soros and the liberal causes he backs of trying to undermine Europe’s Christian culture by promoting mass migration, a charge the financier denies. (Source: Reuters)
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MBC gets a huge reception from the Dervish community
Old_Observer replied to Suldaanka's topic in Politics
Somaliland seems to be most benefiting from changes in Ethiopia, Somalia, Djibouti. And Somaliland is extracting most results from it. Consolidating before the ones in Somalia or Ethiopia have their footing planted in any direction. The situation with Djibouti is exemplary for others to follow. Blood is thicker than water principle. I wish Puntland and Somaliland can find some way of modus vivendi. Oodweyne, You might loose your PM where you are same month and probably same date as Margaret Thatcher. -
Farmaajo is making Somalia miss a great opportunity from Turkey. He failed Turkey by not benefiting from the training and arming those whom Turkey trains. Turkey also had a way to arm those which it trains through Ethiopia. But the biggest thing Somalia is missing is the agriculture. Food for Qatar is now coming from Turkey, Iran etc. Turkish corporations (some private, but mostly public corporations) had plan to grow food in Somalia for Gulf and North Africa. Transporting food is messy work. The shorter the distance the better. Turkey has it seems given up on Farmaajo bringing the country to order and peace. They incorporated a joint company with Sudan, Land has been acquired land (the Sudanese had land and feasibility waiting for investors) all done in one or two weeks. Being food producer and supplier for Arabs would help the most to peace and security of Somalia than any army from Ethiopia/Eritrea.
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I like your previous observation which is true. Eritrea and Ethiopia have a lot of unemployed military, nothing to do. Military as source of income has been raised to level of art by Ethiopia. They have about 10,000 peace keepers this time all paid by UN and others probably 100 times the salary of Ethiopian soldier in Ethiopia. All indications are that your posting is more true than false. 1. Everyone is trying to evict Turkey from America to Farmaajo (Isayas really hates Turkey. Remember Samora Mohamed Yonus and the Turkish chief of staff were not just diplomatic friends, but friends. 2. Ethiopia is desperate and is doing something never ever done before: Getting too close to one side in foreign friends, allies..etc. TPLF was very skilled in this with America and China, America and Russia, Israel and Iran...etc. Very close to middle powers like Turkey, Britain, India, Japan, Korea.... 3. Farmaajo has given up on Mogadishu, but no alternative for him other than try and control it by Eritrea/Ethiopia. The hidden/open controllers of Mogadishu are good friends with Eritrea and Egypt. That might make his job easier. But he will lose all others starting from Puntland. Some areas might even go as far as calling for referendum of Somaliland. This is also dangerous. In Ethiopia nothing is sure, its all in flux. In Eritrea its one man..something happens everything is gone. You cannot tie fate of Somalia to such unknown situation. Looks 19th century all over again.
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MBC gets a huge reception from the Dervish community
Old_Observer replied to Suldaanka's topic in Politics
I think Bixi and Gaas should travel to Djibouti and find a way to live together and stop any kind of fighting. You don't fight over small things while major changes are going on around you that can change everything. I know its bitter, but its better to lose to your brother, which you can get back in the future than lose to outsiders that you never get back before many generations have passed. Pretty soon either the UAE Qatar will make up or Somalia will change side to UAE. Everything is moving in that direction and fast, very fast. -
Turkish humanitarian groups launch campaign for Yemenis Turkish humanitarian agencies on Nov. 22 launched a joint aid campaign for people in Yemen. Disaster and Emergency Management Authority (AFAD), the Turkish Red Crescent (Kızılay), the Humanitarian Relief Foundation (İHH), the Turkish Deniz Feneri Association, Confederation of Public Servants Trade Unions (Memur-Sen) and Turkish HAK-İŞ Trade Union Confederation are part of the campaign. In the first phase of the campaign, which launched under the banner “Yemen awaits humanity”, relief goods worth 200,000 Turkish Liras ($37,800) were donated to Yemen. Speaking at a joint news conference, Memur-Sen Chairman Ali Yalçın said two-thirds of the population in Yemen needs help. He said there is a need to establish a “Yemen peace group” under the auspices of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) to take initiative for prevention of humanitarian crisis in the country. Sait Demir, vice president of İHH, said UN or OIC should take measures to protect people in the region. Hamit Kunt, Deniz Feneri’s Ankara coordinator, said food will be distributed to 500 families next week. Impoverished Yemen has remained wracked by violence since 2014, when Shia Houthi rebels overran much of the country, including the capital, Sanaa. The conflict escalated in 2015 when Saudi Arabia and its Sunni-Arab allies launched a massive air campaign in Yemen aimed at rolling back Houthi gains.
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Its good in some ways no body wants to pick up gun, but still enough internet to kill someone's career or even life on face book. Abtigiis maybe thinking to completely destroy everything Illey, but he will forget at some point that its thanks to Iley and the likes and those before them, that there is a Somali governing the Somali people. If there was no self government it would have been somebody from Addis Ababa governing the Somali people as it was done before. The Somali would have been under different provinces scattered as well. Something tells me the regimes in Somalia Eritrea and Ethiopia are going the wrong direction or simply taking us all on a ride. The whole world is becoming nationalist again and these three plus Abtigiis are talking globalism, regionalism Africanism....
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Puntland is the key to the existence of Somalia and it is the highest level of self government. It was Tigray that made Eritrea possible relatively peacefully after 30 years war in Ethiopia. Every Somali understands Puntland is the key. Somalilanders also know this. Some Oromo may start some face book propaganda against Puntland, but even they know its dangerous for them. Eritrea and Puntland know each other also more than other regions. Remember the exchange between Adde Muse and Isayas around ICU, 2006 etc and the 1900s war between Puntland and Italy. The Oromo/Amxara, Farmaajo, Isayas will go to what they consider weaker first...Puntland will be last on their list.
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The three of them Eritrea, Somalia, Ethiopia governments now will do anything, say anything, agree to anything to survive. They were traveling every other day to Djibouti until the sanctions on Eritrea were lifted. Now back to old habit already of working against Djibouti. If Djibouti did not outsmart them in splitting UAE and Saudi and having the Saudi as friend it could have been really bad.
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You don't need army these days. Just put somebody's name and you have killed him. Not realizing one is killing oneself as well. Ethiopia is being run by face book, but soon the face book people will eat each other and will have to confront 20 million unemployed young people alone. Then we see what face book can do. In Eritrea there was a group of 15 top leadership who in 2001 prepared a document and wrote a letter to Isayas stating that the fighters conduct elections, apply constitution and leave power to elected officials fighters or not. He arrested them and the propaganda was they are TPLF and Eritrea lost 2000 war because of them. No day in court, no official public statement on them. Just rotting in jail and many feared dead or gone blind and some seriously ill. Learn something before making society irreconcilable. You cannot and will not reconcile if you classify a Somali in this way. Go back to the days of Al Ithad, ICUs, Abdulkassim, Aidiid...etc and check the list
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Its amazing these old men are so unpredictable and the young men are so predictable. The sign of the times. I knew the ex speaker was not thrown out because the government wanted to work on the constitution file. Actually it is shown now that he was kicked out because he wanted to work on the constitution file. Now with friendship with Abiy and Isayas the constitution file will go six feet under.
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It seems to me sometimes we celebrate too early, we celebrate too much and we celebrate too long for trivial things. I guess its the face book era. If Kililka is any indication, so far every activity that has been done is negative. The education system and the media that was 100% Somali, that many Ethiopians of the unitary system were openly complaining that the Somali region is becoming country within a country, only the name is Ethiopian Somali, but everything else is just Somali. The new guy has stated that he will change what was done last 20 years and teach Somali that the Amxara are his brothers. He is blaming Iley and others for not teaching the Somali and not showing Ethiopian shows in the TV etc. No body seems to going to correct mistakes and egregious acts from Iley, but the good things he did as Somali are the target. Slogans don't mean anything, especially these democracy, human rights, rule of law...etc. Even America is using it less and less now, it has become counter productive. If Farmaajo is thinking Isayas or Abiy can teach him how to stay in power and how to grab power by globalism or regional alliance...all empty words....he should never forget the tribe wins. I was listening to interview Spanish foreign minister did. His point was UK might break apart with Brexit problems. Both Scotland and Wales don't care and England is so afraid a state of emergency being contemplated and deploying army. That is the British empire of last century. The moment Farmaajo copies Isayas, that is the end of him. The nomad is a different breed. Ethiopia has everything farmer, nomad, city...all are powerful and balanced.
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This program was the least tribal of all programs other than education and media. It is also well supported by experts. The main driving factor was settling nomads, to the extent possible. People cannot have it both ways. One cannot be running to Xabeshi at the slightest problem within Somali and then expect to replace the source of grievance. If some Somali tribes run to the Oromo or Amxara to help them defeat their fellow Somali and that Oromo or Amxara still sticks with the target then one becomes double loser. Was there an expectation that the Oromo will ally with other tribe and destroy Illey tribe from power? That was wrong expectation. There is something called "I do not and did not do it for you". That is so far what the Oromo are saying to some Somali that were expecting for things to be all up side down.
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Regardless of who says it, Its always destructive to stick too much to foreigners and alienate your own. Your competition will do even further and then it becomes acceptable culture and you cannot get back control no matter how much you want it. Keep safe distance. Don't allow foreigners to get too deep into your affairs. Don't you be celebrating when your side does it and push other side to look somewhere else to do the same. When people accused Iley of being too close to Tigray, so that they can justify being too close to Oromo or Amxara, thsy are purposely hiding something very important difference. The Tigray have a culture of autonomy for themselves and others. Its their system and culture in their area. The Oromo and Amxara have the opposite culture, that is changing you to theirs. Its like the British keep their distance and the French want to make you french.
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