https://www.africaintelligence.com/ion/corridors-of-power/2018/12/21/ethiopia-and-eritrea-to-shore-up-farmajo,108337477-bre How are Uganda and Brundi and Kenya going to react? Farmmajo should know that far away countries are always better if one has to accept foreigners. Eritrea and Ethiopia are just too much insiders in Somalia. ____________________________________________________________________ According to our sources at the Villa Somalia, the former representative of the United Nations to the African Union, the [...] Why Mogadishu has barred entry to Menkerios https://www.africaintelligence.com/ion/corridors-of-power/2018/12/07/why-mogadishu-has-barred-entry-to-menkerios,108335626-gra Mankerios is an Eritrean who was leadership during the independence war of Eritrea, but left falling out with Eritrea strong man. Menkerious has served as UN rep in Afghanistan, and African countries. Preventing Menkerios from Mugadishu is extreme, and good indicator how far Farmaajo is totally dependent on Eritrea.

If what you could not understand is about the situation right now: There are 3 forces now in Kilil. Lets do it by geography. The North towards Djibouti and Dirdhaba is split in two. Both wanted Iley out, but one side was interested in federal positions another side was interested in taking power in Kilil. Both succeeded in Putiing Iley away, but lost the benefit/objective they had beyond that. Abiy and the Oromo do not want them because of Dirdhaba. And in Kililka the replacement became one susb-sub clan by another. Where does ONLF sit in this forces alignment? No where. The current government is in alignment with Eritrea and Ethiopia, so ONLF cannot compete with it. There is no room for ONLF to completely join it. The Oromo also do not want ONLF. Does it make sense now? ONLF is out of the game for now. They should have agreed came home and replaced Iley long before the Oromo replaced him almost without Somali input or plan.

Thank you for the analysis/diagnosis. lol

Every Somali knows that was contract killing and it even ended up splitting ONLF. A significant part of ONLF negotiated with Kililka and went back home and joined the government including members of central committee. They may have executed it "successfully", but lost a lot because of it.

Mainly Egypt and Eritrea want his head and most likely supported by Ethiopia/Oromo. Qatar is saying they will help, but unfortunately Turkey is too busy at home. Maybe the timing was chosen by Arabs and their African brothers.

ONLF and OLF are exactly the same. That is probably why they never agree and never work together even temporary united front they never had. Their declared objective, independence and their organization mostly clannish does not match. Iley was more ONLF than ONLF in Eritrea. Now ONLF has to compete with 3 different forces in Somali Region. It cannot even play now any role in Somalia, since ONLF will be allied aginst those supported by Eritrea, which is not possible so now is neutralized. Taken out of play everywhere.

Avoid war by any means at all times, but particularly at this time. For politicians it always is best time, last time, good time....for war..for win....but never time for war when clouds you do not control are gathering.

Hubris getting to the heads of these Africans. He is saying for security of Kenya you have to fight and occupy here. The Xabeshi never said this always saying helping Somalia except the time when ICU threatened to be in Addis Ababa in 7 days. Kenya copying the American vocabulary, Ugandans as well were talking of Terrorism in their country. Trump goes to Iraq without meeting any locals and Kenyans go to Jubaland.

Who is being hypocrite here? Was ONLF not the best ally for TPLF in setting up today's Ethiopia? Was not ONLF competing with the other 3 Somali parties as to who is closer? For Djibouti, Somaliland and Puntland and SW as well the ONLF problem was the same. Eritrea, ICU, Mugadishu. Eritrea has never had friendship with Djibouti, Somaliland, Puntland and SW be it in peace or in war, never. Sudan, Kenya and even Uganda, Brundi all had same policy and action with Tigray Ethiopia. They all allowed Ethiopian agents to roam freely in their countries and even kidnap persons of interest in including from their capital cities. 2006/7 what was role of ONLF? Who did they ally with in Somalia, in Ethiopia, Kenya.... You have to have good footing yourself before you can help your brother. Your brother should not put you in situation where both of you could loose knowingly. I like even better the Djibouti one. You can come and live here, but not do any work against Ethiopia from here. I am sure practically that is what all the regions did as well.

The astonishing part is saying it with straight face. Shows you how the political culture has changed. But the Rwanda guy is right the loss should be equally shared and he is being fair in saying proportionately.

Not possible at this time when the big powers are in chaotic situation. Nobody is going to leave the Somali to manage his house. Best that can be done at this time is at least region by region to have functioning government. As for corruption is relative. Nigerians ministers take in billions, western corporations buy their politicians, countries buy American senators to their favour....its everywhere. The situation with the big powers is good for the middle powers, but not so good for the no powers.

The VP has one eye on Mugadishu and one eye on Puntland and since he is not cross eyed, he is out. He is not a threat to any of the candidates, they all know this and are not going to risk with him.

What happens to the nomad whose email address goes by region, town, village or tribe, sub-clan....If member of parliament is to serve the area people he represents and hardly anyone of them is on email or face book..how could you make that a requirement or eligibility. Actually the opposite should be true. Anyone who cannot name 20 villages and elders or chiefs in his area should not be eligible.

Did you see the verbal jabs between Turkey and Israel? Netanyahu seems frustrated by Turkey success. The Russia Turkey and Europe pipeline will function in 2019, but the Israel Europe pipeline will be next 5 years. These Arabs are just money no self respect. They want the gas pipeline and train to Israel and Europe, they want to reconcile with Syria to displace Iran, they want to fight Turkey....so childish and no priority.

Ghelleh has accepted these realities: 1. Berbera will be competition, but is most preferred competition, since this will be purely commercial competition and also Berbera will not be able to take significant business from him. He is also convinced that Berbera is most preferred than Somalia ports or Eritrea. 2. His folks in Ethiopia were not happy with Illey, and are already unhappy with new one. With Illey was laicese faire kind, but with new one Ghelleh is keeping his distance. Even to Dirdhaba Ghelleh is telling his folks, if you are unhappy come here and live here and kiss Ethiopia good bye (no Ethiopian politics from Djibouti not even mention the name lol). 3. He has to avoid by all means what is happening in Sudan. There is the democracy freedom rule of law train in Sudan. Some of the demo already violent. 4. He is safe from Somaliland side. Since Somaliland also does not want change in Djibouti, nothing good can come out of it. 5. The war in Yemen has to end fast. That would change a lot in his favour. Regime change in France also would be a plus in Ghelleh favour. Globalists are not good for Ghelleh. As Oodeweyne put it wait..wait..wait is best for him. Everybody else is so impatient, they are bound to make mistakes soon. The Ethiopians are going back to China for most things, cannot function without China.

Its mission accomplished. He might even be asked to serve in Federal government at some post. Payback from the region will come at the most inopportune time for Federal Government. Political machinations, corrupting, buying votes...is something, but humiliating a region is grave blunder that has high price. To make matters worst election in Puntland will be taken as comparison for Farmaajo actions or inaction and difference between the two regions.

Me thinks more than the territory issue, its that the vice president thought to encourage Farmaajo to interfere in Puntland. Which means the VP was just place holder and does not understand Puntland. Since all things look like the repeat of 19th century start of colonial era, the VP should know that Puntland is the Kingdom of the 19th century in the age of facebook and arabs. Simple example: In 2006 when ICU precursor of Al Shebab went to Asmara, and Isayas wanted to double down using ONLF along with ICU, he tried to use through Puntland and Somaliland. Somaliland did what they needed to do quietly, but Adde Muse was not going to do quietly and there was exchange of words just like Erdogan and Netanyahu are doing. Ade Muse went back to the Boqor and Eritreans as militia of Italy brought mainly to do the dirty work after the main battles were done.

There was something that Meles and if not mistaken Egal or Riyaale that was stated in public and open. Ethiopia under Meles would be the last country to recognize officially and formaly Somaliland as independent country, but Ethiopia would also be last country to wish ill to Somaliland. That is just the way things were. Ghelleh learned something from Arta and never repeated the mistake. Mubarek was out and Meles was in and never looked back. There is nothing Djibouti can do for Somaliland other than preventing any wars in the area which is common benefit to both. As for Eritrea, which is typical African dictators whim run country, is no match for Djibouti.

Who needs PhD when you have this Somali-man who has patience when most don't, Very matured and very diplomatic speak.

This is almost completely economic and not much to do with politics. Somaliland businessmen are lobbying and pressuring the government to set for them legal agreements and basis for them to participate in the coming privatization and sale in Ethiopia of giant public corporations. Telecommunication especially but airlines as well as electricity are fields Somaliland businessmen want to have some inside truck by setting up companies in Jigjiga to participate as local national companies in Ethiopia. Kililka also is convinced and fact based that it benefits more from Berbera than from Djibouti as it is and next year onward will even be more real. Illey had even Somali state corporations set up to participate in the construction of roads and facilities to Berbera and what he offered was that Somaliland businesses would be considered local in Kililka. Not sure if Cagyar will be allowed to continue this road or even if he wants.

These Arabs are really petrol dollar drunk. Do they think that Syria, Turkey are like Eritrea, Somalia Ethiopia? America is being prevented by its president from getting into fight with Turkey, but those of America who have interest are now trying indirect ways to fight Turkey. MBS and UAE here they come with the money and MBS to get back at Erdogan. _____________________________________________________ Saudi Arabia, UAE send troops to support Kurds in Syria Saudi Arabia and the UAE have sent military forces to areas controlled by the Kurdish YPG group in north-east Syria, Turkey’s Yenisafak newspaper reported. The paper said the forces will be stationed with US-led coalition troops and will support its tasks with huge military reinforcements as well as heavy and light weapons. Quoting the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, the newspaper reported that a convoy of troops belonging to an Arab Gulf state recently arrived in the contact area between the Kurdish PKK/YPG and Daesh in the Deir Ez-Zor countryside. This comes at a time when Ankara is preparing to launch an expanded military operation with the Free Syrian Army against the Kurdish PKK group in the northeast of Syria. Read: Saudi-UAE-Kurdish military meeting in northern Syria Saudi and Emirati military advisers have in recent months met with officials of the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), considered by Turkey as terrorist organisations, at the US base in north-east Syria. There are fears of Arab-Turkish confrontations that will be the first of their kind on Syrian soil.

Sharp to the point. If the regions were suspected of having been Ethiopia Tigray the new replacement should be Shabab that is Eritrea Tigray. Its Shabab and Eritrea that hated Roobow more than America or Oromo for changing sides.

Sudanese President Arrives in Syria Aboard Russian Plane as Mailman of the Saudis The Arab world (in the past largely pro-Soviet and staunchly independent, these days subservient to the West and on the payroll of the Saudis) is getting ready to normalize relations with previously ostracized Assad. Russia is facilitating Elijah J Magnier 14 hours ago | 1200 words 1,881 Comments udanese President Omar el-Bashir made a historical visit to Syria, the first for an Arab leader since war was imposed on Syria in 2011. El-Bashir landed onboard a Russian airplane at Damascus airport, an indication of Moscow’s efforts to bring Syria back into the Arab – and international – fold. During seven years of war, Sudan never closed its embassy in Damascus. El-Bashir was not travelling alone. Sudan would not take such a huge step without the support of its allies. The Sudanese president is a close partner of Saudi Arabia and the Emirates in their destructive war on Yemen. The purpose of his visit is to lay down the road to Damascus for more Arab leaders, who are expected to pay tribute to president Bashar al-Assad in 2019. Their goal is to elbow aside the Islamic Republic of Iran, the only Islamic country omnipresent with friendly forces on the Damascus scene. This is not the first contact between Arab countries and Syria since 2011: Egypt maintained its close diplomatic-political-security relationship with Syria throughout the years of war. Bahrein, the Emirates, Oman, Lebanon and Jordan are present today in Syria. On the western front, Italy is preparing to re-open its embassy, while Germany and France were not absent in recent years. The arrival of el-Bashir onboard a Russian plane indicates the determination of President Vladimir Putin to sew a spider’s web of relationships between the Middle East, the West and Syria. Putin aims to see Syria resume diplomatic relations with Arab and other countries. Russia and Syria dismiss the conditions the US is seeking to impose for reconstruction of the country and would like to see its unwelcome forces leave the Levant. President of Sudan Omar al-Bashir visits Assad in Damascus: Russian Air Force Tupolev Tu154M flew from RuAFB Humaymim to Khartoum & took the Sudanese President to Damascus. Bashir has an arrest warrant issued by @IntlCrimCourt on 12/7/10 (https://t.co/Brbb18FSwY) pic.twitter.com/MQydM8MXGi — Yörük Işık (@YorukIsik) December 16, 2018 El-Bashir came to Syria at a time when the Middle Eastern countries acknowledge that their plan to create a failed state in the Levant has failed. Their goal was a failed state, not a new regime; their unlimited support to the Takfiree groups (i.e. the “Islamic State” ISIS and al-Qaeda) was pushing Syria towards total chaos, posing significant dangers to neighbouring countries with the exception of Israel. Tel Aviv welcomed both extremist religious groups, embraced them, and supported their presence on its border throughout the years of war in Syria. After many years of war, the Syrian president is today harsher in his approach towards Israel, although he does not necessarily intend to initiate an attack to regain Syrian territory occupied by Israel in the Golan heights. Assad is happy to see a local Syrian resistance, similar to the Lebanese Hezbollah, developing along the borders and in other parts of the country. Assad has not changed his stand towards Iran. On the contrary, years of war taught him to rely on those, like Iran, who offered billions of dollars to support the Syrian economy and sent tons of weapons and thousands of men to protect Syria’s integrity. The Syrian president has never flagged in support of Hezbollah. Since 1982 and until today, the Lebanese group received weapons and financial support through Syria. But today the bond is stronger than ever, particularly as Hezbollah offered hundreds of men killed in the battlefield and thousands of wounded for the unity of the Levant. But yes, Assad’s position towards Hamas has changed. He rejects any mediation from the secretary general of Hezbollah Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and from Iran to bring back Hamas into the “axis of the resistance”. Assad considers the time is not ripe to reconcile with the Palestinian group because hundreds of its members fought within the ranks of ISIS and al-Qaeda and were responsible for the killing of Syrians. The position of the Syrian president was firm throughout the war, notwithstanding the reach of ISIS (called Jabhat al-Nusra in 2013 before Joulani, its leader, declared loyalty to Ayman Zawaheri) to al-Abbaseyeen square in Damascus, threatening the government and the presidency. Saudi Arabia and the US offered to recognise Assad as the legitimate president of Syria in return for abandoning Hezbollah, Iran, and Hamas. Well aware of the treachery of his interlocutors, Assad refused and instead relied on trustworthy partners, i.e. Hezbollah and Iran (and Russia later on in 2015), to help him win the war imposed on his country. El-Bashir’s visit expresses the will of his sponsors to recognise Assad’s victory and his leadership of Syria for fear of leaving him in the hands of Russia and Iran, who are reaping the rewards of their victory in Syria. The young Bashar who became president at the age of 35 is today 53 years old with unparalleled political and war experience. Assad is pragmatic and by no means an ideologue. He will have no problems dealing with Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the US, the countries who spearheaded the war against Syria and caused its destruction. Even more, Assad is ready to welcome these countries and invite them to have a piece of reconstruction even if trust will be absent. That is called the art of the impossible. Recognition of Assad as president of Syria by the countries responsible for years of war will open the doors of investment for anyone willing to participate even if the US occupies northeast Syria for decades and if Turkey maintains its occupation of north-west of Syria. El-Bashir wants Damascus to return to the Arab League – who expelled Syria in 2012 – when he is recognised by the Arabs as the legitimate president of the country. Syria is a state and will behave as such, not seeking revenge but offering a part of the Damascene cake to share with everyone prepared to help rebuild the country. The visit of the Sudanese president was planned for more than a year and was blessed by the countries who took the most radical stand against Assad; these countries have accepted their defeat and recognize that Syria shall not fall. Turkey is also reconsidering its position, as evident from the recent statement of foreign minister Mevlut Cavusoglu: “if the [Syrian] elections are democratic and trustworthy, we will consider all possibilities [to cooperate with Assad in case of his re-election]”. The Turkish-Syrian relationship is much more complicated than the Arab-Syria relationship. Ankara’s troops occupy a part of Syria and are protecting al-Qaeda and its allies in Idlib, but President Erdogan shares a common goal with Damascus: both seek the withdrawal of the US occupation forces and to prevent the Kurds from protecting US forces and imposing their enclave in north-east Syria. The door to recognising Assad as the president of Syria is open to all Arabs without exception, along with their investment to rebuild the country. It is time to bury the Arab axe of war in the Levant.

Uganda does not have border with Somalia.

Lets see what happens when Ethiopia or Eritrea to be exact starts cutting into Uganda business in Somalia. Or Eritrea gets into Kenya sphere of influence.