Puntland is unique. I know everyone is unique in their own ways, but Puntland has "deep state". Even contradicting presidents cannot make drastic changes to the state. Even late Yey, Ade Musse, Farole...who seemed larger than the state maintained almost the same thing when they became presidents. Its old enough to have "deep state" that doesn't change much. Avoid war by all means, send part timers to Mugadishu and continue fast economic development.

galbeedi, Abiy may want to abolish autonomy of regions for now until he consolidates to keep his support of Amhara Gurage, but he cannot do it since the first support he will lose will be Oromo. The greatest loss for the Somali in this would be lose of autonomy. You may lose some group benefits from Addis Ababa, but only autonomy will keep you with your culture, language, self government from generation to generation. There is no problem competing clans, parties groups as long as none of them is too attached to outsiders. Ethnic wise the competition is mainly still between the Amxaro and Tigray. Oromo is still Amxarized, Federalist/autonomy Tigray and Separatist. All three are still significant there is no clear winner yet. Jawar belongs to Federalists. Abiy is still hesitant and things are in flux especially on the ground. Never forget Eritrea is also another version Tigray, Christian and Tigrinya. Can never have trusting and confidence with Amxara. Temporary alliance is what they have since the Ethiopia Tigray was totally dominating everything. Everyone making noise against Tigray Ethiopia, but has already started to fructure the minute Tigray is awfully quiet. Djibouti and Ethiopia Tigray will out wait since they both know internationally or regionally everything is against them. For Somali there is only one choice: Protect the autonomy as much as possible Develop the roads infrastructure in direction of Somaliland and Puntland Prevent Oromo/Amxara from taking Dirdhaba completely Give more autonomy to regions in some cases sub clans within Kililka so everybody is not fighting for Jigjiga and Addis Ababa

Its the success of the European psychological warfare. The world is also more interconnected now than past centuries where the British Empire or French could only use existing structures of Clan elders or leaders. Now they can use any Farax and make a coup. The nomad after a century of struggle have lost and have lost confidence on himself or his tribe. He is still a nomad, but trying to join the world of face book and normally he loses since he is working outside his culture, tradition, way of thinking, social structure and sometimes even faith.

Brexit will be bonanza for many countries. Britain will go it alone similar to Russia and since Britain has more connections everywhere things can move faster as America is weakening. Britain will have about 5 new foreign bases this year. Somaliland will be among most preferred and probably in the first 2 or 3.

Blaming others for something that has been there for almost 30 years will not help. If you choose talking to Eritrea/Ethiopia rather than to your own brother, expect others also to speak to foreigners rather than their brother. What is good for the goose is good for the gander. If you invite Eritrea/Ethiopia to get deep into your affairs and arrest in regional state, don't blame others when they invite Kenya or Uganda or even Europeans to get even or do more.

galbeedi, Good to see you back from an interesting trip. I am afraid you missed one very fundamental and big as an elephant issue facing Abiy. It is the same as in Somalia. Federalism or Unitary. The Amhara and Gurage are almost completely against Federalism and so far those are the main supporters of Abiy. The rest are for Federalism. The fact that a new federal state was welcomed recently Sidama shows you which direction the ground is pointing. Addis Ababa is 65% or more Amxara, so I wouldn't expect a person like you to be able in such a short time to observe inards of it. Somalis in Ethiopia are as divided as ever if not more. You have the age old groupings and the added new groupings based on latest HoA happenings. Djibouti, Tigray, Eritrea, Abiy, Separatist Oromo are the outside forces of influence on the Somali in addition to the internal groupings. Ethiopia cannot live without China at this time. The Evangelical/Pente take over is very obvious. That will be more of problem for Oromo and Amxara and not for others. Since most others are more traditional. ONLF will find allies very quickly if the autonomy of the region starts being undermined. So far acts undermining the Somali autonomy have been tolerable, but soon this will come to the fore. All those who supported this changes will want to get paid. Since this is Africa no body wants to get paid by building new things, they want to get paid by taking away from the other guy. Then freedom to speak is nothing if not rewarded with economy. The Oromo you met may want unity of the three Oromo branches, but that is not achievable since for example your friend cannot ally with the Amxaro/Gurage, OLF cannot ally with them and Abiy cannot live without them. Jawar is taken as enemy no.1 now by Amxaro/Gurage and Abiy is taken as their Saviour/leader. This can only go for so long.

The new president must be under a lot of pressure. There needs to be respect for life and regardless of the results of the investigation, just conducting an investigation is a good start. Somalia: Southwest State probes deadly violence in Baidoa city WWW.GAROWEONLINE.COM

Most things in Jubaland will have influence in Kililka and vice versa at the moment.

That means very likely for war in the north. Then while Farmaajo on war in north new problems come up in south. Same circle gets larger. Not good.

Government would not have said anything/taken extreme measures if it was British in the first place.

In deed that is most important lesson that you can see the difference between the two new Moslem women in Congress. You would think everyone at this level would respect themselves, their identity, culture..etc, but apparently not. She will get somewhere. If Democrats take presidency she will be secretary of something.

Expect some new violence on AMISOM (except Ethiopia) Even some paid demonstrations some face book type demonstration saying AMISOM go home. That is how Eritrea does business

Farmajo needs a lot of luck for the following not to happen: Yemen war does not stop so that Eritrea is wanted by UAE and Daudi Ghelleh does not resolve his fight with UAE and his problems with America until 2-3 years from now Turkey does not get breather in Syria, because the Turkish are angry with Farmaajo Ethiopia does not run out of UAE money and turn cold on Farmaajo from Eritrea Puntland does not elect a strong president who can simply ignore Farmaajo and deal with UAE

The fight between UN even EU and Farmaajo is to be expected, actually was delayed by weeks. If Farmaajo wants dead or alive Eritrea and nobody else then he cannot expect support from UN, EU or even AU for this. Eritrea just came out of sanctions related to Somalia partly. Would you recommend kicking out everybody else to be replaced by Eritrea in such a short time? Actually the indirect lol attack on UN camp is out of frustration.

Ethiopia seems to be one country where the question of its formation and also if it should continue is legitimate. Being unstable, fractured, famine, starvation, civil wars...are all related to its formation. Nobody has been helped by western and eastern countries as much or even one percent of Ethiopia, yet still poor, still backward and always teetering on break up.

Ouch. Ethiopians are Ethiopians only when not on one's side, the rest of the time they are Horn Africans and brotherly.

What happened to all the houses, not a single wall undisturbed?

It is both positive and negative. Positive since the UN and EU have been lately showing open disrespect to the government Negative because this will push those opposed to the government in search of allies different from Eritrea Ethiopia, those who had not actively worked with foreigners.

Indirect fire attack That was fast Farmaajo and allies are on fire.

This will be Abiy weakness. His allies and main support from Amxara and Central are not accepted outside of their areas. Ginbot 7 actually is most unacceptable group to the Oromo. Its also very funny that all the organizations that were in Eritrea have been sorted out in such short order and time. Only Ginbot 7 and Amxara group are still friends with Eritrea and Abiy. The rest have been used and thrown already like ONLF, OLF and others.

All of a sudden all conflicts even the nomad conflicts in Gmudug..etc all seem connected to Farmaajo and anti Faarmaajo. Madoobe has information from ONLF of what Eritrea and Ethiopia intentions are. He is pre-empting them.

Some about opposition, but mainly the regions. It shows that Eritrea and Ethiopia can get more involved in the internal affairs and between regions than AMISOM could do. In short what the main point seems to be is that Eritrea and Ethiopia can openly take side with Farmaajo and act openly unlike AMISOM.

Mugadishu is wrong party to put end to this situation. Only Puntland would be acceptable to help with reconciliation if possible, but at least durable ceasefire.

Is Somalia just an observer only because Eritrea is not there? Even Puntland has boats that could have participated and Saudis would have been more than happy to pay for Somalia. The only reason is that Djibouti and Sudan are there and Eritrea could not be there, thus Farmaajo could not let Somalia be there when Eritrea and Ethiopia will not be there. Looks like Isayas has convinced Farmaajo that Sudan will have regime change there fore not to bother.

If true this is more from Mogadishu and Addis Ababa rather than Jigjiga. BTW During Iley time militia are not allowed to have machine guns, technicals etc...only a gun since to reduce the destruction and death when nomads fight over water well or grass lands.