Looks like Farmaajo has caught the flu from Abiy and Isayas. It was not too long ago the two amigos were talking about pipeline from Ethiopia to Assab Eritrea, which everybody know has no economic, security, social, geographic sense, yet everybody was talking about it for weeks. Faarmajo is talking about off shore, because talking about on shore brings the states and will be end of the issue. It is a way to look governmental without participation of federal states. A way to ignore the regions. But the oil companies know that what happens in Baydaba has more influence even on the off shore oil. I hate this face book politics of talking nonsense while ignoring critical and detrimental questions like constitution, working with regions of Somalia rather than foreign countries. This oil business will blow over weeks from now, yet the fundamental issues will still be sitting there if not gotten worst.

America also wants to end AMISOM, but in a radically different way than most people expect. Most us think that America wants to replace others with Eritrea and Ethiopia. That is only the wish and plan of Arabs. America wants to transfer to Somalis, where the federal government is weak. Since America believes that any other group can push it out easily from Somalia; example Turkey, Britain and even Saudis and Egypt indirectly. Here is what the commander of AFRICOM said: AFRICOM said in a Friday release that it plans to keep working "with its partners to transfer the responsibility for the long-term security in Somalia from AMISOM to the Federal Government of Somalia and its Member States." Member states can now expect working with USA. The more things change the more they stay the same. AMISOM over time became too European and less American. Its not as bad as going Chinese or Russian, but European is also not acceptable to USA.

Since every oil major had been involved in Somalia in the past, this is wrong issue to start at this time. American companies still have valid promises, since they can say it was Somalia's fault they could not continue. French company was also involved at one time. Both externally and internally oil at this time is just calling for trouble. Food production and ports would be more than enough for now, since food production requires a lot of pre and post processing industries. The president cannot have mandate. Mandate based on what? Even parliament does not have mandate since the constitution is not ratified to give power to parliament. How about regions...there is nothing agreed and voted for in this regard.

Oil can also move you backwards. Just mention of oil can destroy a country. Uganda became oil producer, but is in small quantity and no oil major has time or attention in those quantities and far away bushes. Somalia is different. You do not need to go far to find an example what can happen...Ethiopia is best example. Oil was found and agreement signed between Ethiopia and Exxon (Standard oil) long before oil was found in Saudi Arabia. The British made a coup in Ethiopia and brought Emperor Haileslassie. The rest is history. At this time you can also see the same. The Tigray had deals with China, Malaysia, Singapore...yet in what can be called a coup, America came in and told them to move out and brought in Abiy and Co. America did not need to go after Tigray since they still want them for other things. The British had no need for Prince Iyasu in 1920s.

If I am not mistaken, Kheyre's last job was with oil company. He also had to sell shares before he can become PM.

Here we go Africa. ______________________________________ Ethiopia denies reports about severing ties with Sudan February 6, 2019 (KHARTOUM) - The Ethiopian government on Wednesday denied media reports that Foreign Minister, Workneh Gebeyehu, has warned that Sudan’s failure to curb continued arms smuggling into Ethiopia through its border may lead to cutting diplomatic relations. Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (Photo AFP) Last week, the Reporter weekly newspaper said Gebeyhu told lawmakers on 29 January, that his government raised with the Sudanese authorities the need to enhance border control operations to prevent increasing arms smuggling from its territory. “We have informed the [Sudanese officials] that they should tighten their border control in their part to deter smuggling. We have clearly informed them that, otherwise, this will eventually lead to the cutting or impacting of diplomatic ties or relations,” added Gebeyehu according to the Reporter However, the Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Nebiat Getachew, on Wednesday has dismissed the reports about cutting relations with Sudan as unfounded. He told Ethiopia’s news agency (ENA) that the Reporter has taken the Foreign Minister’s speech out of context, saying the newspaper has apologized for misquoting Gebeyehu’s comments. The spokesperson further described relations between Sudan and Ethiopia as strong and historic, saying it can’t be severed for minor reasons. He pointed out that the two countries are working closely to combat smuggling of illicit arms. In August 2018, the two countries agreed to establish a joint border force to combat security threats and prevent all negative activities on the border. It is not clear if effective steps have been taken towards its deployment. Ethiopia and Sudan are engaged more and more in joint security, military and economic cooperation. In April 2017, the two sides signed a number of joint agreements to promote economic relations and strengthen ties between the two countries. Also in February, they signed multiple agreements to further boost up cooperation on a range of development activities. In March 2012, the Sudanese President Omer al-Bashir announced his support to the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), saying his government understands the mutual benefits the project could offer Ethiopia and Sudan. (ST) _______________________________________________________ Its Ethiopians that are smuggling the guns. Ethiopia should control its border. Ethiopia is not accusing Sudan of encouraging, but only not stopping it. Ethiopia and Sudan pre-Abiy and pre-Eritrea/Ethiopia brotherhood never had any problem and if there was a problem they have joint border area security and defense agreement. Sudan army can get to Ethiopia armed to some kms and Ethiopian army can do the same. Border kilils have joint policing groups with counterparts with Sudan side. This is just to start trouble, because Sudan government has refused to fall as per openly spoken wishes of Eritrea.

Census is a game everywhere. Especially where numbers are basis for money distribution. In Ethiopia its also Ethnic loaded. For the Amxara its even double loaded. The Oromo and Amxara are both close to 50 million each lol. Few things are agreed by everybody. The Somali have highest increase and Tigray has lowest increase in population. You can never have correct Ethnic mix numbers in Amxara since they intimidate everyone to say they are Amxara. The religious mix/percentages is fairly correct for Orthodox and Moslems, the rest being so many versions of Protestant. Census even in the USA is just estimate when you consider the wild estimates of illegals they debate. You would think child births and deaths are all recorded with all the technology, but census is census since cities get federal money based on numbers. Some states had electorate more than the population lol.

The parliament and senate need to pass a law soon. "Any agreement between Somalia and other countries companies, agencies, will not be valid unless tabled in parliament and passed" All secret deals are secret for simple reason that there is unacceptable parts in them. But the bad part is they are binding. The only way countries protect themselves from traitors or corrupt officials is if there is a law that stipulates that any agreement that has not been shown to parliament, even a select committee, is not binding. There is nothing secret about oil blocks, concessions, freighting, ports...anymore. SFG should not be allowed to keep any of this secret.

galbeedi, Most of what you wrote about Oromo is mistaken. Too much Amxara propaganda. The most influential Oromo organizations are OFC Oromo Federalist congress, then OLF then ODP (Abiy etc).. OFC is trying to reconcile or at least prevent civil war among Oromos and might succeed. OLF was in Eritrea until recently, go figure that one. Except Abiy and few persons close to him, everybody else wants to keep the kililka system. OLF is one of the original groups along with TPLF and WSLF, SDL..and later ONLF that are die hard for Federal system. Most Oromos are pro OLF which is now in 3 organizations. The Amxara may try to use anti-Tigray propaganda, but deep down eveybody knows the Amxara are against autonomy and that is the single most important issue they cannot overcome. Tigray, Oromo, Somali, Sidama, Afar ...issues are all about dominance and alliances in autonomy, economic, government..etc while Amxara problem is main fundamental structure of Ethiopia.

galbeedi, Tigray are on leave. Leave without pay. Those arrested are for following reasons: 1. Some are trully for corruption and embezlement 2. Others are for keeping Eritrea caged for 20 years 3. Others are for defeating Derg, EPRP..(who are now main support for Abiy) 4. Yet others are for future considerations of being threat Persons in security/intelligence and business have not been arrested other than small timers. People in Army also for the most part not arrested. As Africans there is also individual vendetta that one cannot ignore including Abiy and those close to him, settling individual scores.

Amxara have worst internal problem. Everything is fake. The census is fake, unity is fake and the greatness is fake. They are trying to focus on Oromo and Tigray to hide the problems, but cannot be hidden. The border area with Sudan had civil war between Agew and Amxara. Addis Ababa is becoming center of fight between Oromo and Amxara as well. Its very unfortunate the Somali is also at his weakest at the wrong time.

For the most part, he does not have a base he can solidly rely upon. Both Oromo and Amxara suspect him. Being secretive and too close to Eritrea is also not helping. The business community wants Djibouti and Somalia. He is having a hard time making Eritrea no.1 for Ethiopia. Everybody knows there are problems in Eritrea, that can explode anytime. There are deep problems that are now hidden by absolute dictatorship and total control of media and communications. Other Ethnics, except Tigrays are out of power and oppressed culturally, worst of all even faiths.

Some might wish, but is not possible. Both are so competitive, they will always compete to dominate others. They have been separated for almost 150 years and grown apart. Its like the Somali in Djibouti and the Somali in NFD. Have been apart for more than a century and grown different. The one advantage both Tigray's have is if need be they can come together in a very short time since they still have a lot of intermarriages of VIPs. They are both competing who dominates Ethiopia. Ethiopia Tigray have advantage of being Ethiopian, Eritrea Tigray have advantage of having a country they completely/absolutely dominate and can rent it sell it or loan it to anyone who can pay or wants. Eritrea Tigray are mistreating other Ethnic and faiths. That will be their downfall the same way the Amxara fell in Ethiopia. Tigray Ethiopia may be dominating in business and intelligence/security works, but are relatively better as relates to Ethnicity, faith and language, better than Amxara, Oromo or others for sure.

"If a peace deal with Taliban is signed, I will bring home US forces" President Trump "May God protect you from the teeth of the Tiger, the venom of Cobra and revenge of the Afghan" Alexander the great Afghanistan as the killer or wounding of Empires continues. In my lifetime the Soviet Empire tried failed and run away. The American Empire tried failed and is in a hurry to leave. The countries of China, India, Pakistan, Iran, Tajikistan..etc are all waiting to see what comes next. Somalia is so unlucky to be in a critically strategic location, the Afghan are located in critical path, but nothing particularly attractive in the place. As for minerals other countries have same or similar wealth as well, nothing that special. To add insult to injury Somalia also has oil and minerals. What will happen next? Me thinks the Chinese will try again after 1000 years since last one. The Chinese will do it through Pakistan and Iran. If the Turkish wanted to try they would be most successful. The Turkish always respect autonomy of regions and also tolerate multi faith and culture.

Canada is now behaving like a banana republic and not common wealth. From Ukraine to Venezuela Canada is not the once respectable country. With Saudi Arabia the whole thing is just so childish and face bookish.

galbeedi, You underestimate Ghelleh and overestimate Isayas. One fact of nature (Geography) is that Djibouti is 100 times more strategic and cost effective than Eritrea. Ghelleh is also many times smarter than Isayas. What do you mean honour? The people of Sudan had hosted half a million Eritreans for more than a quarter century and as soon as Eritrea got independence, Isayas upon admiration from Clinton supported South Sudan, closed Sudan Embassy, accused Sudan of Islamic terrorism, hosted more than 4 Darfur rebels...you name it. Later on was even worst, accusing Sudan of being Tigray. Still now, Sudan has not done anything against Eritrea/Ethiopia, but Eritrea on assignment from UAE/Saudi/Egypt is doing everything to disrupt Turkish plans of development that is good even for Eritrea.

Actually if you are going to do something like this, assassination, its the right way to do it. If Shabab uses a Puntlander then they will have created conflict and revenge of families in an area they look forward to operate for a long time. Where as if Shabab uses from other areas there is nothing the families of the victim or the government of Puntland can do any further.

There is nothing changed between Sudan and Ethiopia, except the change between Eritrea and Ethiopia on the one hand and Eritrea and Sudan on the other. Eritrea accused Sudan of giving a base to Turkey at Suakin and giving development and maintenance agreement to Qatar for Port Sudan. To make matters worst Ethiopian businesses were happy of the deal between Sudan and Ethiopia for dry post as well as exchange of shares. The same Ethiopian businesses are not enthusiastic about Eritrea. Abiy has only one option left. To start fake/ false flag against Sudan and close the border, forcing businesses using Sudan to use Eritrea. Most Turkish investment is also in the north where Port Sudan and later Suakin both will come in handy. The Sugar plants and the largest industrial park are both in north Ethiopia. That is what is going on. __________________________________________________________________________ Ethiopia blames Sudan for failing to prevent border arms smuggling A checkpoint in Metema in north-western Ethiopia, next to the border with Sudan. The town is a centre of a booming trade in migrants from Ethiopia and Eritrea. (AP Photo) January 3, 2019 (KHARTOUM) - Addis Ababa said frustrated by the failure of the Sudanese authorities to curb the continued arms smuggling into Ethiopia through its border and warned it may negatively impact bilateral relations. During the last year 2018, the Ethiopian government announced several times the seizure of hundreds of guns and pistols as well as ammunition through the Amhara region which borders the Blue Nile state of Sudan. In May 2018, the Ethiopian police said they captured 116 guns and thousands of bullets. Also, in October it seized 481 pistols and 13,000 bullets. The herders and farmers In a biannual report to the Ethiopian House of Peoples’ Representatives on Tuesday 29 January, Foreign Minister Workneh Gebeyehu told the lawmakers that his government raised with the Sudanese authorities the need to enhance border control operations to prevent increasing arms smuggling from its territory. The Ethiopian government "has clearly informed the Sudanese President, Omer al-Bashir, and his respective ministers that the Sudanese government should take the concern of Ethiopia very seriously; and take in to account how this uncontrolled arms trafficking would affect the stability and security of Ethiopia," said Gebeyehu according to the Reporter weekly newspaper of 2 February. "We have informed the [Sudanese officials] that they should tighten their border control in their part to deter smuggling. We have clearly informed them that, otherwise, this will eventually lead to the cutting or impacting of diplomatic ties or relations," he further stressed. The pastoral and intercommunal conflicts in Ethiopia have created a lucrative market for arms traffickers. Further, the authorities in Addis Ababa fear that the existing networks may be used by armed groups to smuggle heavy weapons. The Ethiopian minister said the two countries identified people who are behind the arms trafficking and how they proceed. Furthermore, he said they identified the arms manufacturer and discussed the matter with him. But he refrained from giving the name or the country where it is located. In August 2018, the two countries agreed to establish a joint border force to combat security threats and prevent all negative activities on the border. It is not clear if effective steps have been taken towards its deployment. Ethiopia has good bilateral relations with Sudan. However, the Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed seems more inclined to boot relations with Eritrea, Djibouti and Somali than Sudan. Border crossing: http://www.sudantribune.com/local/cache-vignettes/L500xH271/a_checkpoint_in_metema_in_north-western_ethiopia_next_to_the_border_with_sudan._the_town_is_a_centre_of_a_booming_trade_in_migrants_from_ethiopia_and_eritrea._-ap-0718d.jpg?1492154430 (ST)

Puntland now is the center of the planet (Horn of Africa planet). Some are charming it some will threaten it, others will attack it. Its the Tigray of Somalia or the other way round Tigray is the Puntland of Ethiopia. Puntland does not need to go to Mogadishu to play key role in Somalia. Its to be expected the British, Turkish, Qatar, UAE, Kenya, Uganda, Ethiopia and Djibouti will all visit Puntland. Somaliland, Kililka for sure have already set up channels of communication. Kililka might even want Puntland to help solve the crisis between the Oromo allied/appointed current govt and the Tigray allied past govt of Kililka. Shabab will be a tool used by some Horn governments who have no place or role in Puntland, but would kill to have some role there. Internally Puntland is critical of what happens in Jubaland, SW and even HirShebelle as things have already heated up in earnest related to AMISOM. Externally Puntland for sure will side with Djibouti rather than Eritrea. Which means Farmaajo will be in conflict with Puntland in so many ways and levels sooner than expected. Turkish may also openly give up on Farmmajo and start activities in Puntland both investments and other activities.

The battle/competition/campaign for the Somali people and lands is now at feverish level. Whether its direct interest on the ground like UAE and Ethiopia/Kenya or indirect interest of making money as peace keeper/democratizing forces etc. Djibouti may be forced to withdraw from Somalia sooner than anyone expected. One of the conditions where Djibouti deployed in Somalia is being changed. Ethiopia taking command of AMISOM was never acceptable to Djibouti or the pre-Abiy Ethiopia. It was a no no. All Somalis in Republic or outside were happy with this condition, even those against AMISOM in principle. Ethiopia now is seen as "saviour" by Farmaajo government. Is making Ethiopia/Eritrea command of AMISOM a brilliant move to end AMISOM all together or getting rid of Uganda/Brundi, who seemed fairly neutral in most cases and replacing them by Ethiopia/Eritrea who will always have sides and interference in internal politics of Somalia? What do you think?

Uganda is one of the countries addicted to dictators, once they got rid of the British system. Musavini was promoted an Oromo for few weeks until the competition for Somalia heated up and had to part ways with Abiy.

MMA, Quite the contrary. You are the one who cannot see East African politics without looking for Tigray and Illey under every stone under every bed. Having hard time finding somebody to blame for the many useless at best and dangerous at worst, moves being taken around. On the other hand I recognize the current players: UAE as given all green light by America to do as it sees fit as long as it displaces China and Turkey on its way. Eritrea as local rep of UAE and under this well financed umbrella, dictator doing his personal vendetta as well everywhere from Djibouti, Uganda, Kenya, Sudan, Ethiopia and even Somalia. I have to remind you of the Amin Amir cartoon where young Aidiid tells Shiek Aweys and Sherif that there is more Tigray power in Eritrea than in Ethiopia, when Aidiid heard them cursing cussing Tigray of Ethiopia.

There was never any discussion or consideration of Berbera on this issue. Reason being the Chinese operate everything and Djibouti was the do or die choice from the get go years ago when there was no railroad functioning or Djibouti only had one port. There was some consideration for Kismayo or Puntland away from Red Sea and straight to Asia from the Indian ocean side, but the stability of Somalia became unmanageable. The Chinese have least influence and interests in Somaliland. The Berebera oil/gas pipeline connection was fake news created just to annoy Somalilanders. Petro dollar drunk childish Arabs talked about Eritrea, but no commercial sense and who is who in Ethiopia do not want any investment to Eritrea where everything rests on one man. Djibouti that one man, unlike Eritrea has tribal chiefs that can ensure continuity of policy towards Ethiopia.

Folks like that don't keep mirrors. Only see through no reflective ones.

All that fake propaganda from Mogadishu that Ethiopia will not have offices in Puntland was just fake news and temporary. Puntland is very important for Ethiopia. Ethiopia can import through Puntland staff that no other country can see or look into. In the old, but still valid clan issues as well, Puntland is significant, especially now that the Kilil is weak and a little more confused.