Interesting. The quote I think is of R. Emanuel who is now Chicago mayor. I think Farmaajo tried it in the north did not work, actually did the opposite, and now has to focus on South. Kenya is difficult to use as uniting factor since most Somali do not think much of it. Ethiopia is always quickest, but Farmaajo cannot even think of anything now in that direction. The other problem is NFD is now where Kililka was in the 2000s, where majority feels to have better position in Kenya.

Seems another government where Somali people are counting its days left already.

Its necessary to avoid conflicts among Somalis that can easily be used by others. Kililka as microcosm of Somali population also needs every clan and sub clan of Somalis good will to have peace. Otherwise you will have one clan aligned with Amxara another with Oromo another with South or with Tigray..and then lose the minimum autonomy that was achieved. Somaliland is key for economic development of Kililka. Its the gateway. Djibouti covers only small part of Kililka. Puntland is also important. They are all Somali and if one cannot find a modus vivendi with them, what ever alliance the Somali do in Ethiopia is fake and temporary.

Don't expect too many or even big changes from new government in Ethiopia, either way. They rely heavily on UAE money and UAE priorities are Yemen and Somaliland for operations and bases and Djibouti and Sudan as 1st and 2nd enemies/target in the area. Ethiopia is best tool for diplomatic and economic and security reasons a billion dollars every 6 months to a year will take care of it. Abiy already regrets the incident in SW and nothing even remotely similar will be taken anywhere.

As the situation stands right now, very unlikely. Eritrea has dropped all the opposition groups it had supported like hot potatoes. OLF, ONLF, Amxara (marginally better than others, but still no support from Eritrea anymore). In ililka its exactly like rest of Ethiopia, too many organizations, too many directions and not clear alliances. 3 forces of Somali all going in different directions. ONLF missed best oportunity of negotiating and taking most power from Illey government. There was still mess in Ethiopia, but Kililka could have done orderly transfer and orderly changes. Now is not possible. The Somali parties are scattered, ONLF's home and potential base is split. ONLF now should reconcile with Djibouti, Puntland, Somaliland to start with and then with some regions in Kililka. Then only can Abiy be conducive. The Oromo are Federalists. That would be good basis for alliance, but ONLF has many issues with Oromo. The Amxara are unitary, but would prefer Somali than Oromo for Dirdaba, that is too far and too small of an issue for them to have any alliance. The rest are all federalsit like South, Afar, Tigray..etc and no issue with ONLF easy to negotiate, but all of them are out of the hot issues in Ethiopia now. They are not afraid about Federalism.

It is federal city for now, but is written in the constitution that Oromia should have a role since Addis Ababa is totally in Oromia and also water, waste, supplies...etc all comes from Oromia, its written in the constitution that Oromia should have a say and also share in the taxes. The Oromo are demanding that they have a say in the city government, schools should learn Oromo as well and some functions should be available in Oromo..etc which is mostly fair demands. The Amxara are up in arms over it and were hoping Abiy will change the constitution and are trying to delay implementation of the existing constitution. That enfuriated the Oromo and now the Oromo are saying Addis Ababa is a city in Oromia like anything else. If the federal government will have any role, will be by negotiating between Oromia and Federal. That will take the Amxara and Gurage out of the game totally. Most likely that will happen. Somali should worry about Dirdaba, so probably should side with Amxara and fight for making Federal cities totally federal. Another unpleasant issue with Oromia.

RIP the deceased. galbeedi, I hate to say I told you so, since you were always against the SFG moving out of Mogadishu. Jowhar or Baidaba for a year even 6 months would put Mogadishu in place and show the big wigs in Mogadishu to behave. When all the money moves out of the city.that would be quickest message. After that the locals would be guards themselves. In Jowhar or Baidaba, you don't need big money. The locals would do most of the security and safety themselves with pride.

For parliament there would not be any changes Abiy or anyone can do. Parliament is based on district based which is 100k average constituency, with a minimum of 1 per region like Hareri with small population. House of federation is set by 1 member for Ethnic and 1 more for every million people of that Ethnic. Somali has 6 members since is single Ethnic region. Oromo has 30, Afar has 3 since they have 1.5 million Afar and also Argoba Ethnic district. Tigray which is same population as Somali, but has 4 Ethnics so have 9 members. As for EPRDF they have 4 parties each one has 45 in central committee and 9 each in Executive. If SPDP joins it should be 45 central committee and 9 executive, but EPRDF may change format and reduce the others, but in my view the Somali should only join if equal with the other parties. 5 equal parties it should become. In the past Oromo very strongly and to some degree Amxara did not want SPDP to join equaly since they were convinced that TPLF, South and Somali will always be one block.

They issued a statement saying Federalism is not up for discussion, untouchable and half of the Abiy Abiy singing got silenced. Some were shocked. Abiy cannot be seen as weak on Federalism. If he goes against Federalism he might become hero on face book, but will be zero on the ground. Ethiopia cannot survive without autonomy of regions.

That view is not helpful. This view was prevalent in 1991-94 and look what happened. Parties like the Somali Democratic League that could have formed a front with ONLF easily were pushed away and had to deal with EPRDF. ONLF was more interested in talks with EPRDF by itself rather than talking with Somali parties first and by themselves. Whether a certain locality fought with arms or not, its always preferred that ONLF compromises with the Somali parties rather than first with Abiy. Close alliance with Oromo is almost impossible to achieve anyway. OLF and ONLF have attempted to talk even by presssure of Eritrea, but nothing materialized. From the days of Late Barre to this day no close working relationship has ever succeeded between Somali and Oromo organizations. I don't expect Abiy to be any different. SPDP and ODP are not any different. It would be ideal if ONLF unites with SPDP. The Somali autonomy would be stronger.

lol You killed everybody. How did you know that the SFG was generating a lot of pre-emptive face book postings to lessen the Somaliland Ethiopia talks which is mainly trade and security (has real urgency now and Farmaajo is of no help at this particular situation)?

I think you have read this as well from Hiiran. _______________________________________________ Somaliland president, Ethiopia PM hold trade talks in Addis Busiweek Friday February 22, 2019 Talks on improving trade between Somaliland and Ethiopia took centre stage when the leaders of the two countries meet in Addis Ababa. Somaliland President Muse Bihi arrived in Ethiopia on Wednesday afternoon on invitation from the Ethiopia Prime Minister Dr Abiy Ahmed. A statement from Somaliland presidency media stated the two leaders talked about trade, ports utilization and other economic ties and security cooperation. Other issues involved resumption of the talks between Somaliland and Somalia and other regional issues in the Horn of Africa, including the historic rapprochement between Ethiopia and Eritrea. Ethiopia and Somaliland have entered into several trade agreements which the two leaders will be discussing. The expansion of the Port of Berbera, a strategic installation between Somaliland and Ethiopia which is being rebuilt by a Dubai company DP World was part the talks as well as the planned building of the Berbera corridor linking the two countries. According to deal announced late last year, Ethiopia will hold a 19 per cent shareholder in the Port of Berbera, with DP World controlling 51 per cent stake in the project and Somaliland holding the remaining 30 per cent. The Ethiopian government is also investing in infrastructure to develop the Berbera Corridor as a trade gateway for the landlocked nation, which is one of the fastest growing countries in the world with forecast GDP growth of 8.2 per cent in 2018, according to the World Bank. The ground-breaking event is set for February 28 in Berbera. Billion-dollar trade Ethiopia gains up to US$1 billion in trade with Somaliland. According to political analysts, Ethiopia is Somalilands biggest trading partner in the region. “The geographical and socio-economic proximity makes Somaliland the second largest trade client, with Ethiopia gaining 900million dollars yearly in trade. These factors, combined with the potential benefit of landlocked Ethiopia from Somaliland’s coastal access and the twice-daily flights from Addis to Hargeisa, show just how intertwined the fates of Somaliland and Ethiopia are in the long run,” stated Mohammed Mohamoud Barawani, a political commentator from Somaliland. Ethiopia has gone far in recognising Somaliland in practical terms but not formally. Ethiopian recognises Somalilander passports and currency. Somalilander representatives “are received with all the diplomatic niceties that any minister or head of state gets, with the exception of a flying flag.

Looks like UAE has run into some problems in its fight to destroy Djibouti from all sides. The Saudis are not so enthusiastic to support UAE in its fight against Djibouti. The Egyptians are knocking on Djibouti door for friendship. Eritrea has reached the limit in how far it can push Ethiopia to create problems with Djibouti. Ethiopia is already into mending what small damage it had done to itself past some months. UAE better move fast with Berbera and the highway to Ethiopia and the dry port. That looks like the conclusion.

I did not translate wishes, expectations or face books, only the official statement from the government of Ethiopia: Verbatim the two sides discussed the relationship between their countries. That is it. If you go further you find a lot that is not mentioned by name specifically but if they say trade, if they say security between the two sides...you know what it means. They will work the same way as it has been except on the Ethiopian side some things will change. The change is that the Illey regime had near free hand in its relations with Somaliland, Djibouti and Puntland. The Agijar regime will have less and the Ethiopian federal government will do more with Somaliland, Djibouti, Puntland..etc

Regarding recognition: Somalilanders know from almost 3 decades ago that Djibouti and Ethiopia can never be even among first group or even second or third group of nations to recognize them. Probably last group of countries. This was spoken openly by both Meles and Ghelleh. Nothing secret about it. Somalilanders have no expectation for either Djibouti or Ethiopia to recognize them formally unless its a completed process and other Somalis have accepted as fait accompli and Somaliland and the rest are not going to reconstitute Somalia. .

There is one item that is new which the Djibouti and Ethiopian officials were always careful in using, almost never used. The two countries (Amharic version) two parties English is no where close. Those who translated to English must have found it impossible to translate as it is which is related to territories and not governments. Countries/nations is actually the correct and only translation. Hagerat/countries. Wegenotch/sides. The two sides discussed the relationship between their countries is what it says. 2nd point is: They agreed to work closely in the future in a bilateral and multilateral formats. This is where the unity of East afrrica is mentioned and the conclusion is either Ethiopia and Somaliland bilaterally or with others inclused multilaterally. 3rd point is: Zonal security and businesses and border transits remains the same as it always have been for the last 3 decades. I have a good information in this area, that the Ethiopian federal government wants to deal directly with Somaliland to undermine Kililka from being the gatekeeper that was started under Illey and was considered dangerous by other Ethiopians. One wealthy Oromo businessman also mentioned in an interview that focusing on Berbera is the best option in any eventuality. If Somalia gets back together nothing lost, but if not then will be stuck with Mugadishu and considering the other name for Kililka are in between it may even be more dangerous for Ethiopian businesses. comment. Abiy has been blamed by his army and security that the relationship with people in SW has been damaged. A relationship that started in 1992/3 and 1996 times. It should not be repeated in Puntland and Somaliland. Everything is being restored the way it was before all the coffee sittings and dancing of Ethiopia, Somalia and Eritrea. Internal problems in Ethiopia is the main reason for this. .

The seeds of destruction is everywhere in Uganda, but like all countries it stays hidden as long as western journalists stay away and locals are prevented. Oil money, largess of US and EU, even the money from Somalia is all disappearing. Opposition figures are hounded, closed, arrested...for every little excuse. All the money Uganda made and still making from South Sudan as arms importer, security of president of South Sudan, deployed army paid by South Sudan..etc is another big racket.

Same happening in Eritrea, with grooming son. Afwerki had his son in the delegation to Saudi and UAE..very funny, since his son was not of any known participation in government, but now Afwerki son is everywhere.

A lot of people were stupid enough to buy the pipeline facebook noise and UAE/Eritrea typical Arab talk, through Eritrea. China will invest, but not directly so that America does not get mad. It might be through Qatar or even Saudi Arabia (Ghelleh is working hard to stay in Saudi good books for protection from America/UAE, so far successful, no drastic action is being taken against him). Yes Abiy can win, but the most important is win with whom. As you have seen in Kililka, if Abiy wins with Shide and the likes then the new group is out. If the new group is his ally then most other groups are out. Same if he wins with Amxara then Oromia is out, he cannot reconcile the two sides. He got so threatened by Oromo, and had to make a statement and the Amxara are melting down even swearing already.

I am sure you recognize that federalism and autonomy for the Somali means a lot more than Illey or Agijar or even another elected president. Presidents come and go, sometimes you will have bad ones sometimes better ones. What the Somali should always have is Education, Media and development/investment geared to nomads in terms of transitioning to agriculture and industry. You are also aware that other Ethiopians were not primarily concerned by Illey deeds on Somalis. They were fuming mad that the Education, Media, development of settlements no matter how small, water works(not city) micro dams everywhere..etc was done in Somali language only and for most part under complete control of Somalis. The Liyu and the potential of having an army for future with small changes, was Illey no.1 "sin". You know that Illey is not accused of a single act done on Somalis, but of the disturbances which I think is false flag done by Ethiopia to overthrow him, before he transfers power orderly. Autonomy no matter how small is most useful for the Somali.

He might have tried, but if that is the understanding by Somalilanders, you have it all wrong. Puntland and Djibouti can never be friends with Eritrea, no matter what. Economic, startegic, historical.... Somaliland has always kept her distance with Ethiopia and Djibouti, knowing full well that these two will be the last in the world to recognize her as a country for obvious and sensible reasons, but both have interest and will to see that there is no war in that part for any reason. Somaliland rebuffed Egypt and Saudis and by extension Eritrea for use of its lands/waters on Yemen. Ethiopians current are convinced that Puntland, Djibouti, Central and South West Somalia and Kililka are very close to Tigray there fore are to be undermined. Last year has been more of America, UAE/Egypt/Saudi, Eritrea and Farmaajo just went for the ride. His influence even with relations with Puntland with Ethiopia and Somaliland was very minimal, more of face book than on the ground.

lol my beloved Tigray. Not much changed. But it splits that anti-Tigray alliance and many parties and regions in Ethiopia have already started approaching and visiting Tigray. The mayor of Addis just celebrated the 44th anniversary of Tigray rebellion that brought down Mengistu by travelling to Tigray leading with 500 people. This was unthinkable a month ago and he is Abiy man. The Eritrea pipeline was openly scoffed at and the Djibouti pipeline just started last week Puntland and Somaliland are being approached to restore relations with Kililka and Federal the way it was a year ago. Abiy just made a statement telling Ethiopians that the Federal system is not negotiable and rumors that I am anti federal is white lie. Abtigis cannot state enough and cannot be loud enough in upholding the autonomy of the Somali and the good relationship with bordering Somalis from all sides. You may see very soon another visit to Djibouti or Djibouti to Addis Ethiopia and Sudan just buried the Eritrea/Amxara pushed conflict and have committed to revive the co-operative border works and common security and military units.

What a year it was: America changes horse in Ethiopia (too Turkish, too Chinese, too Russian was America's reason) and assigned UAE to replace the Chinese with money, to replace the Turkish with major development investments and military exchange, replace the Russians with arms supply. America could not change horse, but can damage the grass in Djibouti through UAE and Eritrea. It looked successful on face book and internet, so much so that Somalia fell for it. UAE drops a billion dollars on the table over coffee, promises 3 billion more guaranteed and promises major investments to continue Saudis award diplomas to Abiy and Afwerki against Ghelleh's refusal to allow them to use Djibouti in the war on Yemen. Afwerki pushes Abiy against Djibouti, Somaliland and Puntland so far deep that Kililka quarreling sides got together and demanded a stop to this and restore the 30 year peace and friendliness beteween Djibouti, Kililka, Somaliland and Puntland in particular and all bordering regions of Somalia in general. Afwerki again pushed Abiy to far deep against Federal system in Ethiopia to the extent that the Federal structure was named as Tigray/Afar/Somali making to divide the country and weaken its unitary system of a century old. The Amxara were celebrating and awarded "sainthood", "elect of god"...on Abiy and Afwerqi to vanguish the Tigray/Afar/Somali and restore Ethiopia to its "greatness" (where a million people perished in famine and starved by the government) unitary structure. 2019 just started and the face book and internet revolution has just come to grinding halt. Reality on the ground. The Alliance band singing for Abiy Afwerki just split. The following questions came to a head. From Oromo, Sidama, Amxara in Ethiopia to Djibouti, Kenya, Sudan, Uganda and most importantly Somalia in the Horn, small and big bombs started exploding. 1. Who owns Addis Ababa, Oromo or Amxara 2. When is Federalism going to be destroyed and unitary structure restored 3. When are regions to be forced to do education in Amxaric and stop using their languages in government and education 4. What is Ethiopia doing to restore unitary system in Ethiopia and Somalia just to make them same as Eritrea The hottest issues in Ethiopia right now are: Addis Ababa and Federalism The hottest issues in Kililka are: Relations with neighbor Somali enclaves (Djibouti, Puntland and Somaliland in the main but all other regions as well) and autonomy of the region Abiy after so much hiding has to make stance clear and in both hottest issues came against the Amxara...face book, youtube the battle fields have had a melt down. Abiy cheated us is the battle cry. Since there is no furry as great as by one scorned, the "elect of god" is now overnight the "devil". Welcome to Africa. The pipeline from Ethiopia to Eritrea should have been an eye opener, to anyone with the smallest grey matter between their ears. Instead had become a blinder for last year, since so much emotion without reason. The debate among the reasonable was pipeline to Somaliland, Puntland or Djibouti, never to Eritrea. The start of the pipeline project last week killed all dreams and fake "greatness" of Afwerki and Farmaajo (as follower). Welcome to reality.

lol The reality on the ground is the opposite of what you stated here. There is a political earthquake in Ethiopia and Abiy cannot move fast enough to fix the shenanigan of last year with Djibouti, Somaliland and Puntland. Abiy is fast dumping all that face book and coffee time with Afwerki and Farmaajo. I would hate to be Farmaajo right now. He has nothing to do with it, but change in Ethiopia is going to make him again change direction.

There is a political earthquake that happened in Ethiopia. So much so that the Oromo party of Abiy had to declare that "We will not compromise on the current Federal system and structure". This was unthinkable even just a week ago. This and the issue of Addis Ababa between the Oromo and Amxara has now exploded in the open. Abiy just declared that he/party is acively working on making Oromo language a federal language and also special interest of Oromo in Addis Ababa. The project of dumping Djibouti was of course a pipe dream and already some Tigray are being brought back to fix what was broken the last year of dancing with Eritrea. Most of all Kililka people have demanded that Ethiopia's close relation with Puntland and Somaliand be restored and enhanced. Even the most anti Illey in Kililka are demanding that. Ghelleh patience is paying off. That calm (least among quality of Somali politicians) man can already see the panic in Eritrea by the start of the Ethio Djibuti pipeline. Highways, Railroad, Air route and now pipeline will connect Djibouti Ethiopia, sealing this for next century. Bixi must have copied from Ghelleh to be patient and let the fake face book campaign blow over.