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Everything posted by Old_Observer
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Its now obvious foreign powers, UN, IGD etc cannot establish Somalia army. Even the most generous and arms length Turkish failed (Farmaajo government main reason). How about an army that has stake in the economy. It might increase corruption, but so what, corruption is everywhere anyway, you are not changing anything for the better. How about the army: Runs some farms that were industrial scale or modern farms during past decades and have some like Banana, cotton, Soy...farms Runs transport buses between and into the provinces/regions, which the army has to protect, maintain, develop Runs constriction companies for roads, micro dams, housing for military and government offices...etc Runs educational institutions technical and also some hospitals and pharmaceutical manufacturing This will solve the one main problem. No other country no matter how friendly can give you a national armed forces. You can establish a hospital, school, road..from donors, but never a national army. In the west this is done by very close relationship between armed forces and defense industries In middle is done by armed forces having business like in Turkish, Pakistan, Egypt...etc In Africa is mostly chaotic and corrupt with nothing useful to show for. Ethiopia was moving the Turkish way, but now is in question which way it will continue.
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Oodweyne, Thank you. Its just Eritrea is synonymous with Afwerki. His personal fiefdom. Dictators are guided with personal feelings, never with any economic or social basis. If Social, historical, economic relations were decisive Sudan and Eritrea would have been closest countries. More closer than Ethiopia since Eritrea had 30 year war with Ethiopia. People accuse Ghelleh of being dictator, which is not true. Ghelleh sits down for coffee with tribal chiefs, businessmen, religious leaders....He combines both modern day fly by night diplomacy with everyone, yet very solidly grounded in tradition. I am sure Arabs would have showered him if he had participated in Yemen crisis, but he kept his distance and never made blood money. Eritrea and Ethiopia will part company soon. Ethiopia will not be able to take business out of Djibouti and give to Eritrea. On the contrary Ethiopia will give all increase of business, plus the 10-20% of existing to Somali-land. Except in few delusional minds in Ethiopia. the plan is go Indian ocean not red sea. Djibouti, Somaliland, Puntland, Kismayu, Lamu.....Asia is next not Europe. Africans should not miss this one like missed 20th century. Its now impossible for Abiy to show friendship to Ghelleh, considering America and Arabs, but the way he shows friendship to Afwerki is as usual for this kind of forced and bought friendships too much show off, childish and no substance. Forced and bought smile.
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She now has the most unlikely parts of America on her side. All Trump supporters/voters other than the Christian Zionists and bought or blackmailed congress members. The majority of Americans are saying: Here comes a nomad, no victim-hood weakling, but brave, calm, dignified and positive. Those who are just Jewish are her friends, those that are right wing extremists are her enemies.
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Abiy had planned visit to Sudan Afwerki did not want this meeting between Sudan and Ethiopia to happen Salva Kiir had visit planned to one of his provinces Afwerki calls Salva Kiir and tells him to abandon his trip and prepare instead for Afwerki visit to Juba Afwerki calls Abiy and tells him to abandon his Sudan trip and go to Juba with him Here are articles from Sudan Tribune: 1. Ethiopian Premier cancels visit to Sudan March 4, 2019 (KHARTOUM) - The Ethiopian Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed, has abruptly cancelled a visit to Khartoum scheduled for Monday. The Sudanese government didn’t explain the reasons for the (...) 2. Eritrea, Ethiopia, South Sudan leaders agree to boost regional integration March 4, 2019 (JUBA) - Eritrea, Ethiopia and South Sudan leader Monday have agreed to bolster regional integration and work coordinate position on regional and international issues. President (...)
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Alshabab mortar attack lands metres from Cheeseman's bedroom
Old_Observer replied to Suldaanka's topic in Politics
The mountain is there already. Puntland can attract Turkish. Turkish are fed up with the ineffectiveness of SFG. Turkish may be interested for some bases in Puntland. Djibouti for sure would be more than happy to work with Puntland. The advantage is that no one will accuse Turkish or Djibouti with working like Somaliland, but the message would be clear to the rest. Ethiopia as well would not want to be cut off Puntland. Eritrea is the only one that can 'never' work with Puntland. -
The fact that Puntland succeeded in keeping its autonomy and also becoming a force to be reckoned with Federalism is clear for everyone to see. Maybe our Oodweyne, in his usual generousity with Somali people, would even have congratulated Puntland if it wasn't for the fact that you are brothers, neighbours, a lot at stake... There is one truth the world over about federalism: Its irreversible. There is no country on earth that went from Federalism to unitary, unless it becomes a different country or countries..etc. In the same political geography no country has changed its structure or system from federalism to unitary. Don't become another Eritrea. Eritrea case with Tigray/Afar is a great lesson. Eritrea tried with Amxara, Oromo, Sidama, Somali that are far away just to piss off those related neighbors to no success.
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Kenya and Somalia agreed to resolve Maritime Row out of Court
Old_Observer replied to Dalmar1's topic in Politics
Not sure if any of this is true, but two things are very obvious: 1. Farmaajo is too happy to just be seen with the "big" men (starving and backward countries), regardless of the optics, meaning or purpose and result of these trips. 2. He is so embarrassed of what he did to Djibouti and does not know how to repair the damage, except making it worst everyday. -
Politics in Ethiopia right now is wide open and everyone is trying to get support for any idea and make it big. This community is everywhere and no where at the same time. For sure Djibouti and Somaliland would encourage this as well. They both do not loose anything. Quite the opposite they both gain influence in areas they currently have less.
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Simple answer to Kenya is that "We are working on constitution and election after which Somalia can have body that can enter into long term agreements that can be enforced. Until then things stay frozen and Kenyans should help to get there fast if you want to close this file. Everybody is confused, but when it comes to Ethiopia both Kenya and Somalia have same interest. Both want Ethiopia to look south and Indian Ocean not north and red sea.
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Exactly She is a class act even those who hate her respect her and unlike the other Moslem woman, are really afraid of her. She speaks what most Americans are afraid to state openly. She also proved she is a daughter of a free, confident...nomad.
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There is a common culture in the HoA. When you see someone being attacked from all sides, its a sign that all are afraid he is going to leave them in their miserable condition. In Ethiopia its Tigray and in Somali areas its Puntland. Even Amxara and Oromo that would not sit in the same stadium will both curse and cuss Tigray Even Amxara and Oromo that would not greet each other will happily chit chat about Illey. Mugadishu and Hargiesa will sing same song about Puntland Mugadishu and Hargiesa sometimes will sing same curse and cuss at Ghelleh but would bnever talk to each other This thread is one of those... Mugadishu wants and dreams for Puntland to fight Somaliland out of its own manpower, supplies and oney Somaliland wants for Puntland to be a country and cut off Mugadishu or Puntland to recognize Somaliland or propose a referendum for Somaliland. Somaliland knows Puntland is the key. If Puntland says that the people of Somaliland should be allowed referendum..its all finished...just like what happened in Ethiopia. Once Tigray/Afar said "we are tired of fighting to keep Eritrea, we are starving moving backwards....let them vote..it was all over. Puntland is getting somewhere. Its on the move. Thus an indication that everyone else has complaint against it.
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Eritrea is the only country that has nothing to do with the Chinese in the HoA. Simple. Its under strong Christian ruler/group. It matters in a poor region. Eritrea is also the first choice of UAE who in turn is America's rep at this time. America now wants to control with others paying the money. Its almost impossible to get Ethiopia to be against Djibouti openly let alone to start war on Djibouti. Eritrea can do it easily if America/UAE needs it.
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Ethiopia, Eritrea and Kenya conferece (Cheeseman not invited )
Old_Observer replied to Suldaanka's topic in Politics
What a mess this HOA has become, just because America and UAE wanted Eritrea to be important. As far as ports is concerned Ethiopian businesses have chosen. Djibouti first and what ever is extra or increase in development growth in the economy Somaliland. North and western Ethiopia prefer Port Sudan. They do not want to invest or make deals in a country run by whims of one man, who has never dealt with any civility to any of his neighbors. When he was Americas favorite boy he attacked Sudan. The same business folks also want China, Turkish to be 1st choices since these two will transfer technology, have similar conservative culture and not destroying societies with LGBT.... Eritrea is not only taking advantage, but also fully working in the instability and lack of clear direction in Ethiopia. Pretty soon Abiy has to sit with Ghelleh, Al Bashir and Kenya. figure out something else. This coffee times with Eritrea is not working at all. Farmaajo unfortunately is just another SFG where people start counting how many days left for him to go, rather than how much work left for him to do. -
Puntland new leader pulls clan melitia from Tukaraq
Old_Observer replied to Suldaanka's topic in Politics
It looks like Somalilanders are making Tukaraq like its Waterloo. New administration of Puntland is changing some of the ways of dealing with these issues. The old ways of boasting or cursing cussing each other among Somalis..is getting old. Talking about this or that village is past its time. Strategic thinking is needed with the objective of resolving issues peacefully to extent possible. Should move on with the times. -
The fact that nobody of those groups pays any attention to the Palestinian one yet they have laser focus on the Somali, in a twisted way made me feel proud of her. The more some groups are focusing on her, she is actually now getting support even from some Jewish. Some one is saying, this Somali is a different kind. a daughter of a free nomad and not the common kind.
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Since when is building a 21st century road in place of a 19th century road become a scum? This is actually where even if you hate anything related to Somaliland, would keep to yourself. Its embarassing to oppose something unique where almost all Somalis universally welcome. How much money would you pay to keep all Somalis in the North all connected, interdependent and interacting with each other in Somali language, Somali culture, visintg each other easily conveniently, intermarriages......not only continue, but dramatically increase. All this a bonus to the economic activity. This is priceless. No difference to building a new road all together, except this is a little bit cheaper only the part of of land acquisition. I cannot wait to see the Somali Region construction corporation being a big contractor and taking a bigger share in construction workers, engineers, importation duty free of heavy equipment that will last 20-30 years and used on many future projects.....
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Alshabab mortar attack lands metres from Cheeseman's bedroom
Old_Observer replied to Suldaanka's topic in Politics
No free lunch from Puntland anymore. Puntland will demand a "pound of flesh" SFG finance the anti-terrorism activities in Puntland complete SFG Parliament and senate work on constitution starting yesterday SFG not to interfere on regional governance and administrative areas SFG take complete responsibility of issues with Somaliland or give complete responsibility to Puntland with the money and supplies. Puntland and other regions that have developed capacity will deal with foreigners as related to investment, assistance, diaspora.. (Regional states in Ethiopia have diaspora affairs councilor in Ethiopian Embassies.. Moving the capital even temporariliy may also be an issue Puntland and others might consider on the agenda. -
How despondent does one have to be for this against a project supported and welcomed universally by all Somalis even those across trenches fighting against each other. Djibouti which everybody expects will lose some business (not true) is among most enthusiastic, Kililka which different political groups are at each others throats have nothing but praises and encouragement to finish the project fast. I am sure even Farmaajo will not say a word on this project. He will keep his mouth shut, since he knows its universally well received project. It will be modern, divided and also capable to take modern heavy trucks and loads. It will have exits and bypasses to airports, cities around. When connected to Djibouti-Ethiopia highway inside Ethiopia, kililka will have busiest highways cutting through it.
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Alshabab mortar attack lands metres from Cheeseman's bedroom
Old_Observer replied to Suldaanka's topic in Politics
Looks like Adobe to embarrass Farmaajo.................................................... On a series note: Farmaajo made a stupid mistake. Trying to expel AMISOM only to replace them by Eritrea. AMISOM should only be kicked out to be replaced by Somali forces. Changing uncles is the worst. From here until solution with AMISOM will all be similar incidents, until Farmaajo comes out and reconciles with regional governments, comes to understanding with Djibouti which in turn can provide great help in smoothing the AMISOM exit. AMISOM will never be happty to lose all that money, but at least with help of Djibouti one can shame them openly. -
UK Defense and Somaliland, a rekindled relationship
Old_Observer replied to Suldaanka's topic in Politics
Britain is going to open about 4 bases this year. Is Somaliland competing for one. In that case should be fast, before Yemen war end and to some degree also competition with Djibouti, since Djibouti is interested and working hard to get the British (which may include Australia, Canada rest area). -
You don't avoid sleeping afraid of a possible bad dream. This was one of the projects to which Illey was going to retire. At that time the Somali Kilil construction corporation was going to play a major role, with consulting company one of them from Turk y. As for corruption, it would not be more than the construction contractors that work where ever you are. Nobody is building Roman roads anymore. I say just do it.
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This will be the greatest and most important economic activity to transform Kililka. Main road and branching roads First for imports and last for exports from Ethiopia to work with trade Hotels, gas stations, rest places, repair and maintenance ...for the transport industry Construction work from engineers to laborers in all aspects Socially and culturally strengthening and maintaining Somali connection to withstand the influence from Ethiopia https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xPesbmWHpwA
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Ethiopians have now realized that the haste and false flag operations to bring down Abdi Illey government, was ordered by somebody outside of the Federal system. 1. Not a single case brought against Illey other than what happened when he was already restricted movement and function of his government 2. Not a single case presented to court except postponing and never ending "we are investigating", we need another month... 3. All the propaganda to make Illey government look like a monster, not an issue brought to court except on face book and anti Illey groups Abiy was ordered by someone/group in Oromia or Addis Ababa to take the measure so clamps y, so dangerous. No Ethiopian believes that the Somali burned churches or killed priests and of all priests in Ethiopia a Tigray one....false flag flying high here and stinking. Even Addis Standard could not take the stentch of lies and fake news, fake accusations... _______________________________________________________ Court orders the police to bring absent defendants in ex-Somali president file; translators no show despite court order Wednesday February 27, 2019 Judges at the federal high court 4th criminal bench have ordered the police to bring either bring the 41 defendants being tried in absentia along with ex-Somali region president Abdi Muhamud Omer a.k.a Abdi Iley. and five others or present irrefutable evidence justifying their non-existent status to stand trial. The judges’ decision came in response to objections from the defense team of the six defendants who are currently under police custody. The defense team objected the polices’ request for additional 14 days in order to bring in absent defendants and argued that the polices’ hitherto inability to bring in suspects was causing unnecessary delays in their trial. The judges have therefore given last order to the police to apprehend and bring the remaining 41 defendants of file status report on their whereabouts during the next hearing. Ferhan Tahir, former police commission commissioner of the Somali regional state has also raised the issues of the court’s impartiality and to preside over the case. The judges have dismissed Ferhan’s objection and said the court was impartial and that the trial will proceed. In a related development, translators to help two of the defendants: Worseme Sheik Abdi and Guled Obel Dawud failed to appear at the court today as was ordered by the judges during the last hearing held on February 15. Both defendants have told the court on February 15 that they have not received copies of the charges, nor have they been briefed about their alleged crimes due to lack of Somali language translators at the court. The court adjourned the next hearing for March 29 during which the police should report on the status of the 41 defendants being tried in absentia, and bring in court room translators to help Worseme Sheik Abdi and Guled Obel Dawud understand the criminal case they are charged with. Background On January 25, the Attorney General’s office revealed that the August violence resulted in the killings of 58 people while 266 were injured. the report by the AG also revealed a gruesome details which were previously unreported, including the discovery of a mass grave where the remains of 42 of the victims was found. Eight more bodies were discovered inside the premises of St. Michael Church in Jigjiga city. The report also said ten women were raped in just a span of three days but added there could be more unreported cases of rapes. And properties worth about 421 million birr were also vandalized in the violence.
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