Old_Observer

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Everything posted by Old_Observer

  1. One would think Farmaajo would have been the busiest person of the three, but he looks like the person with the most free time. Unless he is making progress with Al Shabab with Afwerki's help.
  2. The professionals have already agreed to have civilian government under the military council. That is the best way. Sudan is a country with more than 150 languages and so many parties. The military is needed to keep all parties in line and talking. Otherwise the country cannot function.
  3. MMA, If that made your day, I am happy for you. I like to see happy people. In the grand scheme of things this is meaningless. Actually same as in Ethiopia it will only create more suspicion in Mogadishu and elsewhere. So Asmara has replaced Kismayu, Baidaba, Garowe, and even a block away in Mogadishu. Actually it would have had little meaning if Afwerki had come to Mugadishu. In any case happy trips to Asmara.
  4. What makes Sudan different from the rest, a cut above: Islamist forces call to task military with Sudan’s transitional leadership April 24, 2019 (KHARTOUM) - Sudanese Islamic forces called for a transitional period led by the military council with a civilian government and an appointed parliamentary assembly. The call was made on Tuesday by the Popular Congress Party (PCP) and the National Coordination for Change and construction (NCCC) after separate meetings with the political committee of the transitional council. "The army has played a decisive role to achieve change in the country when it stood by the people," said Idris Suleiman, political secretary of the Popular Congress Party in statements to the official news agency SUNA after the meeting. He said that the PCP does not want to participate in the transitional government, noting that it must be composed of politically independent qualified personalities with the needed competence, experience and know-how. "We are not with the option of a joint military-civilian council, either it is a military or civilian sovereign council," he stressed. The PCP political secretary was referring to the proposal of the Freedom and Change forces which call for a collegial presidency including military and civilian personality. Suleiman said that the transitional period should be for one year after the adoption of a transitional constitution. He added that his party submitted a proposal for a transitional constitution to the military council. In a separate meeting, the Political Committee of the military council received the proposals of the National Coordination for Change and Construction (NCCC) on the transitional period. The NCCC includes a number of Islamic leaders known for their criticism of the government of President Bashir. "The interim military council should be in charge of the sovereignty of the country during the transitional period, alongside a civilian government of independent personalities, as well as a legislative council that monitors the government performance," Shafie Ahmed Mohamed, head of the coordination, told SUNA after the meeting. He added that the interim constitution of 2005 and the amendments made to it until 2011 is the most valid document for the transitional period. The Military Council had announced that the Political Committee is seconded by a group of experts and university professors to study the proposals submitted by the political and social forces on how to manage the country during the transitional period. For its part, the Freedom and Change forces announced the suspension of contacts with the political committee, while the Sudanese Professionals Associated called to organize popular protests against the junta to force it to hand over power to the opposition groups and to recognize their revolutionary legitimacy. Sudanese opposition groups that led the 4-month protests against the rule of President Omer al-Bashir accuse the head of the military council Omer Zain al-Abdin who is an Islamist military of seeking to include the Islamist forces in the transitional period arrangements. But the council denies the charge saying they only seek to establish a political consensus and to keep the national cohesion. (ST)
  5. Great news: The professionals: Doctors, Lawyers, Engineers...are the change makers always in Sudan. Sudan’s professionals to announce nominees for transitional civilian council April 19, 2019 (KHARTOUM) - In a bid to increase pressure on the military council, the Sudanese Professionals Association (SPA) Friday called for a press conference on Sunday to announce the names of the nominees for the transitional civilian council. "At the press conference, will be announced, the nominees to assume the Sovereign Civil Council," said the statement, adding that "The conference will also elaborate on the advanced efforts on other civil authorities, (...)". On Saturday 13 April, the Freedom and Change forces met with the head of the Transitional Military Council who pledged to hand over power to a civilian government very soon. On Wednesday, the opposition groups released a letter they handed over to the military council after the meeting detailing their position on the transitional institutions. In its statement, The SPA recalled that there would be a transitional presidential council that will assume the sovereign functions of the state, a lean government composed of qualified and professional people and an appointed 120-member legislative assembly including 48 women at least. The transitional parliament "includes all the revolutionary forces of youth and women and takes into consideration the Sudanese ethnic, religious and cultural diversity," stressed the SPA in its statement. The professionals who lead the protests during the past 4 months organised on Thursday a series of huge demonstrations across the country to reiterate their demand to transfer power to a civilian government. The military council is also under regional and international pressure in order to speed up the power handover to civilians, as the African Union threatened to suspend Sudan’s membership by the end of April, the EU said it will not recognize the military regime and Washington underlined that sanctions will not be left. (ST)
  6. Oh the Arabs coming to Sudan with their childish games: April 18, 2019 (KHARTOUM)- The head of the Transitional Military Council (TMC) Abdel Fattah al-Burhan Thursday sacked the Foreign Ministry’s Undersecretary Badr al-Din Abdallah Mohamed-Ahmed. Sudan’s foreign ministry building in Khartoum (SUNA) The decision comes after a statement by the foreign ministry saying that arrangements are being made for a visit of a high-level Qatari delegation. The Foreign Ministry issued a press statement on ongoing preparations for a visit of a Qatari delegation to the country "without consultation with the Council and without its knowledge," said the TMC Spokesman Lieutenant-General Shams al-din Kabbashi during a press conference on Thursday. Also, "The statement did reflect the official position of the Transitional Military Council," he added. The dismissed diplomat was a member of the National Congress Party de the former President Omer al-Bashir. The Council and the foreign ministry denied in separate statements a report by Alarabiya TV saying that the TMC had refused to receive a Qatari delegation.
  7. America's stand: Was OK with the military council, but wants to pressure the council to be more on its side, there fore America encourages, supports..etc for the military council to talk to the opposition Africans stand: AU says 3 months to transfer power to civilian. That is meaningless since the Sudanese military is setting up civilian government anyway. What should have been said is 6 months to do election and transfer to the winner of the election. This 3 month stinks of Uganda, Egypt... European stand: Negotiate with opposition...but all that you do please make sure the refugee flow from Eritrea and other parts of Africa stays closed. My Stand is: Military council to continue stabilize the country, the economy (remember democracy cannot be bread), prevent entering and setting up shops by America, Europe, Arabia..Let the national assembly continue and check on government and part of the laws that is not suspended. In a years time discuss with national assembly and call for election.
  8. Berebera will be the most imortant port if: There is a problem in the red sea, Suez or Yemen/Djibouti and If the East takes empire and kill the Europeans which have made the red sea so important. Brebera is close to Red sea and Indian ocean where the action will be. UAE is very easy to go down if this Iran-Israel escalates.
  9. At this level there is no turning back and nothing to repair. That is too bad. Every country has some madness when it makes the useless great and the sincere as useless. The British aggrandizing Sir Winston Churchill is one. He bunkrapted and put into debt the British empire, yet to this day he is considered in England as the greatest. His racism also contributed to alienation of India. So much hope placed on Farmaajo and he will leave without anything tangible and visible legacy for Somalia.
  10. Suldaanka, So is every successful country or empire. In some countries they are called bankers, others oligarchy.. You can't move fast or consistently in case of every Farax pulling in different direction. Success requires focus, single mindedness, fear of failure, consistency.... Do you hink if there were too many Farxs involved Djibouti would have manged to keep Somalia and Ethiopia away?
  11. Especially man made.What ever goes up must come down. He is probably 70 years old and there is bound to be some ambitious guy who can't wait long. Eritrea is a territory which is first one to be dropped when empires have problems or better opportunities. The Ottomans dropped it first, the Egyptians dropped it first, America with its largest bases and Radar stations dropped it first. Its close to Suez and Bab elmendeb, but yet far enough to be useless for weapons of the past. If you are in Djibouti or Sudan no need for Eritrea. The British were never interested and when interested they already had agreement with Xabeshi (Tigray) Emperor which the British chose to honor after some discussion in foreign office.
  12. Europeans will trip over each other for this Airport. It will be Ethiopian Airlines most important hub, will overtake Addis Ababa for so many reasons. Djibouti will have share in Ethiopian Airlines. Djibouti Airlines will be shared by Ethiopian and will start as regional Airlines. If every country who is who in the world will have base with 4-5000, with families following them slowly... If any African country is going to make it Djibouti will. Going European will ease the pressure from America. Bravo Ghelleh https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-11/european-banks-may-fund-djibouti-airport-after-china-deal-nixed
  13. Sadly, it only means another SFG time wasted. Another alignment, another arrangement of the groups started. Different regions aligning differently again. UAE might have a hand in all of this or may be trying just like in Sudan waiving dollars.
  14. The border is 100% closed. Sealed. Did you miss that? What reconciliation of people are you going on about. Abiy can only fail or succeed primarily what he does in Oromo, then Somali then Amxara..Sdiama...Success or failure starts at home and then closer neighborhood. Your judgment is so clouded by Tigray this Tigray that, you missed the big fat facts in front of you. I am sure you do not know what place and role the Afar have. UAE will soon come back to Mugadishu, kick out QATAR and Turkish and start new round of alignment of regions. That is sad. Means another year wasted, another SFG wasted. Oromo or Tigray do not have any place or role here.
  15. Both Afwerki and Abiy are in the same situation, one worst than the other. There is no help coming. The three amigo face book time is done.
  16. No body is happy. America was happy the first day, but not after the changes in the military council Saudia and UAE were not happy the first day, but now they are Egypt is not happy both times, since both versions committed to standing with Ethiopia on GERD, but Egypt has neither money nor power. Egypt, I should say Sissi was happy that the Brotherhood is being undermined, but very unlikely.
  17. Who put a monkey wrench to this so promising regional integration, that even some SOLers called the beginning of east African EU? lol Did America changed its tactics? Did UAE run out of money or has accomplished what she wanted and is retiring its Sultans' collection? Did Somaliland played more than he weight with Djibouti, UK, Turkish, Puntland, Kililka..? Did someone in Somalia bulked at the coming Eritrean army new AMISOM? What went wrong? The border between Ethiopia and Eritrea is now 100% closed, not a single road even villages road is open. The two Ethiopian kilils that border Eritrea, the talk is open: we knew it was just targeted at Tigray. Now that truck has deflated tire in Ethiopia and has become very dangerous for Afwerki unexpectedly, there is complete change of tactics. Ethiopia has done 3rd cabinet reshuffle and no end in sight. All three amigos are in deep trouble some in a pickle. Farmajjo wanted to railroad federals states, bring Eritrean army and get rid some opponents with some flimsy accusations. Bring Somaliland to talks under favorable conditions and look a hero. It all now is on face book where it started or maybe in the coffee shop in Amxara. Abiy wanted to unite his Oromos, eliminate those he can't. He also wanted to attack further federalism to make Amxara happy and on side. It all has come to one hard stop and the vehicle is still shaking. There are some positions like Defense minister that have changed 4th person under Abiy. Nothing seems to be working. Addis Ababa which he thought would be best bribe to the Oromo, has become Achilles hill. To make matters worst, what Afwerki and Abiy expected the Tigray to commit a mistake, never came. Tigray is saying to Afwerki and Abiy, you make the mistake. No way...stalemate. The Somali is now at confused state. The Afar did not committ to any side, unlike the current Somali, so is still on the fence. What do you think the three Amigos will do next?....Ghelleh is laughing, but not showing it. The Don knew all this face book will not end well. The Don knows Afwerki very well. The Don is all for zero winner to date. Now all the Don needs to do is get those shares in Ethiopian Electric Corporation, Ethiopian Airlines..then everything is sealed for the next century. A hundred Farmaajo, a hundred Abiy a hundred Afwerki cannot undo it. It will be tied to Banks from New York to London to Hong Kong and Shanghai to Tokyo.
  18. It still is success when it happens, but its a part of the activity that Singapore would not want at home. They do it in other country and they want Somaliland to be part of it and guarantee supply by having it on more than one country. By the time environmenta issues come to the fore in Somaliland or Africa, you will have enough economy, either to shut it down or make it cleaner industry.
  19. The whole third world is now divided into 3 Those who say its better that we get exploited, but we get to moderity We don't want to be exploited and we don't want modernity We don't want to be alone unexploited, so you also should not get modernity we all stay where we are. Somaliland like any HoA has population tittering on famine, 8 million in Ethiopia, closed in Eritea, few million in Somalia.... Its better to have establishments that exploit you rather than be humiliated asking for food help. The way I see it. 20 years ago the Vietnamese were fully exploited by Japanese, Korean and North American companies. Now they are only half exploited and next decade will be fully competing with their exploiters.
  20. Another of Trump's projects is becoming shaky. Arab NATO. There is a gathering in Iraq where Iran and Saudi Arabia are sitting. Egypt has withdrawn from Arab NATO as it appears. This Libya is very confusing. The Russians and Turkish are on the General's side. And now the UAE seems intent not to miss a wining train, so along with Saudis, they are also on the General's side.
  21. The key to most issues is self government at home. A family, a clan, a village, a country needs self government. You can be ruled as colony, but if its more than paying taxes and serving colonizer in few things then it will be conflict. Autonomy is the key. You should not allow a family member to invite an outsider to get into details of the family. By the same token you should not allow another country to get into details of your country.
  22. I am afraid all those mileages to Asmara, Amxara and Addis Ababa have taken their toll, in the alliance world. There is no way a Somali would love Asmara more than Djibouti. No matter how much friendship there is with Isayas and lack of it with Ghelleh among the personalities. Its always a bad idea to stick to much to a new PM in Ethiopia, before the dust settles. 3rd cabinet shuffle already, and no end, stability in sight yet. Undermining Turkish contribution and participation was another major screw up. Most likely things were beyond Farmaajo capability, and staying too long in America, Farmaajo must have lost that Nomad character which Ilhan Omar seems to have preserved. Sometimes saying NO to someone.
  23. I think that is a bad calculus. Hard to make it work in this case. Remember that Puntland will always have the advantage of dealing whether with Federal or Federal states or even with Somaliland and even with Kililka. Puntland has a link either social, economic, security, historical or tribal. Others only have tribal connection with one and no other connection. Or economic connection with one and no other connection. When it comes to foreign as well. Puntland can have close relations with Djibouti anytime it wants to any time its beneficial. Same with UAE. They can even have excellent relation with Turkish if UAE is not covering the money department. The Chinese are also a reserve, unless America says no.
  24. I think the General also needs to compromise and propose a transitional government instead of evicting the government side. Libya even after all Gadafi years is tribal society. Winner take all will be short lived. On top of that the three colonizers Italy, France and Britain are his biggest problem. But the same wishes for the people. They have really lost a lot.