-
Content Count
3,669 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
30
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Calendar
Everything posted by Old_Observer
-
There is no border, but Somalis and Eritreans have interacted both good and bad for more than 100 years. Eritreans were brought in to keep order/force after the Italians had defeated the navy and army of the Boqor. Somalia helped in Eritrea's fight for independence from Ethiopia, but if we are to speak the truth, Puntland would not have been so friendly and has never been friendly in last 30 years. Eritrea tried to set up government, but with wrong group since Eritrea;s only reason was to go against Ethiopia. Very narrow objective. They might be far, but not like Uganda or Sudan who did not have any negative interaction in the past.
-
Belgium run 2 years without government (elected) There is hardly a government in UK (36 ministers resigned in 3 years, no other debate except Brexit for 2 years..etc) More than 50 governments changed in Italy in 45 years almost 6 months no government in Germany trying to put together a coalition They have tribes, clans same as we do. They have separatists and unionists as we do. The only difference is the bureaucracy. We change first army generals and security people before anything else. They change maybe chief of staff at the end of all other changes. The only change should be only defense minister, not generals, police chief, justice/court..etc. How to get there? Military, security should only be appointed by committee from all parties government and opposition with unanimity or 3/4 of members approval. New government cannot change for 6 months except vacancy.
-
Galbeedi, Why jump from one frying pan to another? Eritrea will attempt to wipe out any trace of Turkey, Qatar, Tigray Ethiopia more than it cares about Kenya. And more importantly any choice you make with Eritrea at this time is against Djibouti one way or another.
-
Kenya Denies Somali lawmakers and ministers into Nairobi
Old_Observer replied to Che -Guevara's topic in Politics
Che, The only thing Somalia needed to do was pass the following two resolutions and sit on them: 1. Somalia will not enter into any international agreements affecting land sea or air until there is a constitution and a government elected according to the Constitution. 2. Any agreements entered in violation of the above will not be accepted and abide d by Somalia. The rest is all side show and waste of time like today with Kenya, tomorrow with Ethiopia and after tomorrow with Djibouti then with agreements the federal states or some other parties might enter into. -
Although basically true this article is a propaganda diatribe rather than fair analysis. Somalia had no option, but to side with Turkey. Turkish have risked their clout and the prime minister at the time president now, himself to travel to dangerous Mugadishu. Nobody else did that feat. Turkey has technological capacity 10 times all those Arabs put together. Turkey has more good will and dignified dealings million times better than the childish Arabs. Turkey was close friend of Somalia and Ethiopia at the time. Turkey can replace Ethiopia in Somalia without any problems. Qatar is there by its alliance with Turkey for the most part.
-
Somaliland's Hawala companies will be immune to Kenya's crackdown
Old_Observer replied to Suldaanka's topic in Politics
looks like, hit while the iron is hot. Total mess in the horn of Africa. The only one acting as statesman is Ghelleh/Djibouti. -
Most likely either there are Somalilanders in good lobbying positions or Museveini himself wants this issue to put Farmaajo in place for his wanting to replace Uganda with Eritrea/Ethiopia. As for Eritrea, check with ONLF before you get your hopes high. ONLF from the days of WSLF has the most experience with Eritrea which has the same leader from those days. The first country to recognize Somaliland can only be from far away like West Africa, North or South..not somebody close by in East Africa.
-
FURY: Somalia COLONIZING Kenya using MUZUNGUS
Old_Observer replied to Che -Guevara's topic in Politics
Typical African talk, very crude, but it works with Africans. Too bad late Barre did not start and finish with Kenya first, before starting with Ethiopia in the 70s. He also agreed with Kenya first, before Ethiopia. That was also another mistake. The best road now is for the Somali in Kenya to take over Kenya in business, military, intelligence...etc. This is also good to expand to Uganda and Tanzania. This video is dangerous in one very important way. Its calling for mob action against Somali. Although this cannot result like South Africa since the Somali is strong enough to prevent and to retaliate, its bad for business. Kenyans should be made to know that their business can disappear in a heart bit if there is no peace. -
Why so different priorities in one small region?
Old_Observer replied to Old_Observer's topic in Politics
Indians will never let go of this. They lost to China in the railroad between Ethiopia and Djibouti, because they could not finance as much as chinese. ________________________________________ Perils of a rail link built with Chinese funds Saturday May 18, 2019 By Nizar Manek The first commercial train of Addis Ababa Djibouti Railway carrying passengers from Addis Ababa. File | Photo Credit: AFP/Getty Images The train had crossed the frontier on Chinese-built rails between Ethiopia and Djibouti. Barren escarpments and acacia trees were flowing past the windows. Behind lay Ethiopia and a disclaimer at the ticket booth warning passengers to travel at their own peril. Funded by China’s Exim Bank for $4.2 billion, this is Africa’s first electrified railway, except that it is not really. “Look at the electricity shortage: the train could be blocked for a whole day of operations,” Djibouti’s Finance Minister Ilyas Dawaleh told this writer in his office in Djibouti City. In January, Mr. Dawaleh said, operations were halted for half a day when a train was blocked by protesters amid conflict on the border between Ethiopia’s Afar and Somali States. Ethnic Afar feared Somali annexation of villages. “Everyone’s taking hostage of the infrastructure,” Mr. Dawaleh said. Besides the Ethiopian unrest, nomadic people demanding compensation for run-over camels too were not factored into a feasibility study Exim Bank approved for the over 700-km Ethiopia-Djibouti Railway in 2013, before disbursing the loan ($490 million) for Djibouti. In April, an Ethiopian freight train skidded off the tracks. Revenue forecasts for the railway, meant as a pivot for Ethiopia’s export-oriented industrial development dream, have been cut to a third against the feasibility study. The track remains incomplete in both the nations and the railway transports only one commercial train a day, not three as planned, said Ahmed Osman, Governor of Djibouti’s Central Bank. During the railway’s first year of operations, 90% of trains from Ethiopia arrived empty at a container terminal in Djibouti, only to collect imports from a nearby loading point, said its director-general, Abdillahi Adaweh Sigad. At one point, there’s a railway station beside a mountain range abutting a fortressed base for China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and linked to a Chinese-funded and part-Chinese managed port. Warehouses lie between and “some sensitive cargo” are imported, according to the port’s commercial director. Ethiopia and Djibouti are working on restructuring the rapid rise of debt, whose maturity has already been extended. In February, Mr. Dawaleh met Exim Bank’s president in Beijing, saying Djibouti, like Ethiopia, wants partial railway privatisation. China Civil Engineering Construction Corporation (CCECC) and China Railway Engineering Corporation (CREC), railway constructors who became management contractors in December 2016, already want shares, the Finance Minister said. The plans may entail private operations of some wagons and segments of the 100-km track on Djibouti’s side, Mr. Dawaleh said. Oil and gas development In April, CREC met Ethiopia’s Prime Minister in Beijing, expressing interest in oil and gas development as State Grid Corporation of China signed a $1.8-billion investment deal with Ethiopia, including to supply power to the railway. The railway network is planned extended to Damerjog in eastern Djibouti, where a 735-km pipeline with China’s Poly Group will transport natural gas from Ethiopia, said Djibouti’s Minister of Energy, Younis Ali Guedi. Djibouti’s public and publicly-guaranteed debt was estimated to be at 104% of GDP at end-2018, according to the IMF. Djibouti disputed the forecast, saying it used outdated data from the IMF’s last debt sustainability analysis, in 2016, and included debts of state enterprises, which the government doesn’t compute as sovereign debts. Djibouti, meanwhile, seeks new off-balance sheet commercial loans totalling $448 million, including a $56 million loan from Exim Bank, for an electricity transmission line. Shanghai Electric Group agreed in September to split the EximBank loan 50:50 with the state-owned Electricité de Djibouti (EDD). Another line is planned, with finance expected from India’s Exim Bank. Djibouti separately seeks a European-financed $420-million loan for an airport that would be recorded on the balance sheet of Great Horn Investment Holding, a subsidiary of the Djibouti Ports and Free Zones Authority, and so, like the EDD loan, not accounted for as sovereign debt, said its chairman Aboubaker Omar Hadi. (Nizar Manek is a journalist based in Addis Ababa) -
Djibouti: Build an Airport Making the rail with Ethiopia functional Restructuring of debt and court Europeans to replace US Ethiopia: How to govern the country Build and secure transport to Djibouti and Somaliland Find new debt and prevent the dwindling foreign investment from drying up completely Kenya: How to stay ahead with ICT and ensure no other competitor in East Africa Restructuring loan Maintain European and American interest to compete with China Somalia: How to restore the country and move on to all the good things others are doing Eritrea: How to prevent the government from being overthrown Sudan: How to handle the Arabs How to prevent Egypt from using Arabs vs. Sudan How to do a 180 degree change in governance and implement federalism Uganda: How to make the dictatorship continue How to exploit South Sudan and Congo How to make America be interested in Africa again Why so much different priorities in one very small region? You don't see this in Asia, Europe or Americas. They might have some differences but not fundamental like in Horn of Africa.
-
He might improve a bit, and that in itself is good, but to make drastic changes, he needed more than the power of money. The power of money has brought him this far, from here on its alliances time. When ever there is alliances, ones ideals get corrupted a little bit. But it looks like he may achieve peace with all neighbors which is good thing for investment and development.
-
Why talk of oil at this particular time? Is it to avoid a more urgent, more critical issues of restoring the country? Oil is bad even for the most stable countries, let alone for Somalia at this time. The discussion should be for all wealth that is under ground. Finding a formulae how to divide it between different levels of government. I think the prime minister is still on an assignment about oil. That is bad.
-
Kenya reimposes Wajir stopover for all flights leaving Mogadishu
Old_Observer replied to Suldaanka's topic in Politics
Bad idea and method. If you punish him yourself its internal, but if you want him punished by foreigners then the competition changes. He will also go to find a more powerful foreigner and then you will go to finding more powerful foreigner than his. As the world keeps changing this becomes endless. You can never settle and close any file or any issue. Look what happened in Kililka. Most Somalis were in agreement that Illey needs to go at least retire. Believe it or not even Illey himself was convinced he had to go/retire from presidency. But because this was done with foreigners/Oromo and the campaign was that the Oromo are saving Ethiopia from separatist Illey, no Somali is happy with the result. Even those in power now are always shamed that they came to power by Oromo. It is so obvious and open secret that they cannot hide. People exchange fake smiles and fake brotherhood. Always choose to punish your own brother yourself otherwise compromise. Any victory you achive over your brother with help of foreigners is disunity for the longest time. -
Today in Yemen: American/Saudi drone downed by missile Saudi Pipeline completely shutdown for repair and investigation of the damaged pumping stations.. Hit by drones 3 hills captured by Houthi and Yemeni forces from Arab allies If Iran becomes convinced there will be war, then the whole middle east until Afghanistan will be all small wars before Americans are in position. Regardless Arabs will be losers. Caught in between and mistakes of their own.
-
What is SOLers views and stand on situation in Sudan?
Old_Observer replied to Old_Observer's topic in Politics
Violence Ukrainian style. The transitional council and the opposition agreed. Immediately there is shooting that killed soldiers and demonstrators alike. Somebody is not happy with the Sudanese people coming to an agreement. ___________________________________________________ The violence broke out late on Monday at a protest sit-in across from the country's military headquarters. The committee earlier said another protester had died, AFP also said. A Sudanese military officer was also killed, AFP and Reuters reported, citing Sudan's interim ruling body, the Transitional Military Council (TMC). Dozens of protesters were injured in the incident, including some who were carried away on stretchers towards medical aid throughout the evening on Monday. Some of the protesters appeared to have been struck by live ammunition, while several soldiers were also injured. It also was not immediately clear who was responsible for the shootings. The TMC blamed the violence on armed groups unhappy with the progress of the country's political transition, Reuters said. Protesters said counter-revolutionaries linked to the former regime of ousted Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir were inciting violence, the news agency reported. -
Kenya reimposes Wajir stopover for all flights leaving Mogadishu
Old_Observer replied to Suldaanka's topic in Politics
Somalia has too many issues and total lack of focus and identifying priorities. Quarelling over money from IC Quarelling over system of governance Quarelling over friends be it Saudi/UAE or Turkey/Qatar Quarelling how to govern Mugadishu Quarelling who of the neighbors to get close to and who to avoid or less close Too many fronts and no progress in any of them. Forget Kenya for now and straighten the Capital and close by regions. Don't accept anyone who does not contribute to this. If you make federalism priority to fight against, you start with a loss already. Puntland for sure will never give up its autonomy. Unless you move the whole federal government to Puntland which is another impossible. Farmaajo should have stated one agenda at a time. Period. The reason the meeting failed is too many agendas and that is recipe for failure. You realized that Pompeo behaves this way: 1. America has no money to bribe dictators or "democrats" only force is what America has left 2. He has openly stated he is christian Zionist so he wants temple built, world war happen very fast 3. All allies are now looking both ways. No body is now dedicated and loudly singing from the song book. Before America used to send Britain, Australia, Poland, France...to speak what America wants now America has to speak by itself and do things by themselves. Tony Blare spoke about Iraq war more than George Bush. Those days are over. -
Farmaajo should either be a man and state that: He wants a centralized government in Somalia and not Federalism or Accept Federalism and do: Constitution Respect power sharing and do only federal functions and do them right Make states responsible to clean each of their states He is going on an impossible mission of undoing Federal system without providing and courageously stating openly and then resign if the Somali people do not like his proposal. He is simply wasting time and resource and endangering Somalia more backwards.
-
Last I heard is Madoobe has strong allies in Mogadishu. Kililka is also more than happy to send some more ONLFs.Deni is on Madoobe side as well if things get further. It shows that you are fuming mad, but the capital city was an issue Farmaajo wanted more than Madoobe. Abiy will not be any help here to arrest Madoobe or take him out of the elections. That card has been used, burned and brought more problems to Abiy.
-
They are now really scared, they can smell it. The Saudis announced two of their ships were damaged sabotaged yesterday. UAE was denying until they could not anymore. They must have called Iran repeatedly. The whole existence of UAE depends on commerce. Commerce needs peace and security. One of their trading partner also happens to be Iran. The Saudis have pipeline that goes to red sea and do not rely on tourism. Farmaajo needs to take advantage when Arabs are busy to put Somalia in order, but I don't think he has the capability. From now until unknown time, would have been perfect time for Somalia to get a breather from Arabs and do some work independently or at least autonomously.
-
Four commercial ships were targeted by sabotage near UAE waters The UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced no casualties have been reported after 4 commercial ships were subject to “sabotage operations” within UAE territorial waters. Earlier, Fujairah Emirate Sea Port Media Office denied media reports that explosions took place at the Port of Fujairah. The incident occurred near the UAE emirate of Fujairah, it said, one of the world’s largest bunkering hubs which lies just outside the Strait of Hormuz. The strait is a vital oil and natural gas corridor for the global energy market. “Subjecting commercial vessels to sabotage operations and threatening the lives of their crew is considered a dangerous development,” the ministry statement said. It gave no details about the nature of the sabotage and did not identify the vessels beyond saying they were of various nationalities. It said the incident did not result in spills. The statement did not say who carried out the operations and made no mention of Iran, amid escalating tension in the region after the U.S. military sent forces, including an aircraft carrier, to the Middle East
-
What is SOLers views and stand on situation in Sudan?
Old_Observer replied to Old_Observer's topic in Politics
The whole thing has hit a snag. Europeans are not happy that the Transitional government may not be good at stopping refugees as Bashir was in his last years. Egypt and America are not happy that the Transitional regime maybe still the same Brotherhood with little change. Already US, Britain, French, Dutch, German, Swidish...embassies are vising daily the sit ins and demos to continue. Eritrea, Ethiopia are also not happy that Al Bashir people are still everywhere. The revolution is split. The Mahdi family is also in the middle. Add to it the Brotherhood which are keeping low profile publicly, but still very powerful. -
Whites have almost stopped, Indians and Pakistanis are finding competition with Africans not so easy. This may be opportunity for Africans. Even the Philippines are now being displaced by Ethiopians and the likes. Agreement was signed recently and already 100K Ethiopian maids is the number being spoken about.
-
Kenya reimposes Wajir stopover for all flights leaving Mogadishu
Old_Observer replied to Suldaanka's topic in Politics
Understand, but if you cannot do much about it, change the issue. Tell the Kenyans to check in Mugadishu and then flights are free to go straight. Kenya having customs office in Mugadishu does not cost Somalia anything in terms of sovereignty. Many countries around the world have this kind of arrangement. -
galbeedi, Here is a geopolitics on a small scale, but with some drastic changes. Remember the last day's of Illey where you did not mind splitting Kililka? Its now a train gathering speed. Abiy with some support of the Amxara wants to undo the existing regions. Its now plainly obvious that you have better chance of winning in Oromo kilil than he does. One province that will be restored is Hararge and border it with Djibouti. Many Oromos are convinced of long term benefits of them inching to Djibouti and Somaliland. Both to Mugadishu and Kismayu is impossible for Oromo. The new Hararge will be 65% Oromo, 25% Somali and the rest with Afar and others. Oromo definitely need a port close or a port they can influence easily. Assab is too far deep in Afar even if Ethiopia gets open access to it. Kenya is too stable, relatively and also America and Britain want to keep it the way it is. The Oromo want to avoid Tigray and Big Foot. These two are nothing but trouble. Hararge will give the Oromo stability and Amxara support in Ethiopia and also close to port control with less problems. If the Oromo stay in power for 10-15 years, most on the way to Djibouti and northern Somaliland will be either full or half Oromo.
-
Popular Contributors