Old_Observer

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Everything posted by Old_Observer

  1. Kililka: Should visit all areas Meet elders and politicians Make them aware of the situation Ensure the security, police, Liyu have cohesiveness and give information rather than they get it from others. Have good understanding with ONLF and others on basic issues Don't get too deep with any party or side with EPRDF.
  2. Each part have 45 memebers in CC Each party has 9 members in Executive committee The South Party has been in meeting now more than 5 days. The plan was at most 3 days. The Amxara statement comes only from Executive committee not CC of Amxara party. The CC will be impossible to unite on such strong statement. ODP is not in difficulty, but ODP has bigger problem. ODP does not have majority support in Oromia. Condisering the Sidama question and others in north and south...Ethiopia is in emergency situation.
  3. Two of the 4 parties that form EPRDF have declared they cannot work together. TPLF accused ADP of encouraging Amxara Chauvinists ADP accused TPLF of being enemy of Amxara It does not change the numbers in Parliament, but this will affect the Army. As it is the Army had made statements last week that its being affected in its cohesiveness Wanted to take Amxara activists to court.
  4. He better be. That is much more beneficial to Kililka than Djibouti. It covers more territory of Kililka. Djibouti trade is not much use for Kililka as one would expect.
  5. Where was this Caare for past months? On vacation. Puntland should give him an ultimatum to get out and reconcile with Somaliland or go to Mogadishu one way ticket. There is nothing long term and no reliability with him. And where did the President of United States of Somaliland go?
  6. He seems basically against the idea. I don't think there is any Somali against the idea, but most Somalis think the timing is not right for that ideal. Almost all enclaves are in competition right now and some enclaves seem to be happy with existing order.
  7. Everybody that is there is now there regardless when they came. That is the only formulae that works the best. The O are trying to take HoA one enclave at a time. Who is next, Mogadishu? The Kenyans and Ethiopians are at risk of being ruled by the O next 20-30 years.
  8. The world has changed a lot. And BTW who is going to invite Cuba if Ethiopia falls apart? The Somalis, Oromo or Xabeshi? Good luck to everybody if they can manage their own areas let alone to think of other areas and Cuban help.
  9. He is either so immature or the praises from some Amxara pages got to his head. He does not stop and think that a lot of blood spilled a lot of bones broken for the Somali chair he is sitting on. Easy come easy go he will be if he continues with this attitude of undermining the Somali character.
  10. Abiy thought it was easy to get rid of federal system to get support of Amxara. Yet now he lost support many places who became suspicious. The Sidama are one of the leading once, who want their outonomy right now before Abiy does anything.
  11. What if this is Kenya supported.. Kenya is very influencial country in Africa after Nigeria, Ethiopia, Egypt and South Africa. It will not do iteself anything against Somalia, but can send its friends to get the message. Suldaanka must be enjoying some of the painful posts here. Throwing bomb every page to see how we react.
  12. This is very significant. Remember what Seyim Mesfin 20 years foreign minister of Ethiopia told Somaliland some 15 years ago. Let alone us and Djibouti, no country in East Africa will be first to recognize you, except all Somalis agree and all come to Ethiopia and Djibouti to tell us and swear inf ront of us that they have agreed for independence of Somaliland. Ethiopia and Djibouti in all likelihood will be last countries to recognize Somaliland. Its just the nature of things. But any island or small west African country can recognize you and it can snow ball from there, like in fae away west Africa, Asia or latin America. That is what Taiwan has been doing for 60 years and still at it.
  13. They are doomed. The day they chose to fight Tigray with no holds barred and no red line is the day the Amxara were done. The rest is just noise. Tigray is the recognized core and root of Xabeshi Geographically, history, faiths..etc. Amxara just became important by accepting Italy, British and French demands when the Tigray, Somalis, Afar..refused and some of them fought. The Tigray have better relations and better support in all nationalities in Ethiopia small or big. Even nationalities that are not friends of Tigray are not enemy of Tigray. That is a big asset in Africa. Amxara tried to use the Oromo to come to power by cheating the Oromo. Little do they know that the Tigray and Oromo have been working together for 40-50 years. Amxara were too late in making a friend of the Somali. There is just too many historical hurdles. Abtigis is already in trouble and under suspicion for simply talking.
  14. This is being repeated a 1000 times in Ethiopia, whenever the Oromo are scared from Amxara. The Somali people were cheated about Illey. To the Somali people the propaganda was that Illey has killed people, arrested people, tortured people, he is corrupt..... Between the Oromo and Amxara the talk was that the Somali is too independent, too much autonomy. The Somali is like a separate country. We cannot allow Illey to transfer smoothly with all the structures and liyu. The oil and arrangement Illey had with Tigray, the trade route partly moving to Somaliland..etc Well. The Ethiopian government has not brought a single separate and clear item aginst Illey about torture, killing, corruption...etc. The only case against him is about the Church burnings...etc which happened while Illey was under army control, house arrest. No investigation as to who burned churches. Most Ethiopians think the Somali who allowed and even helped in building the churches would burn them. Abtigis is going extreme. He is either too afraid, because the Amxara praise him 24/7 and the Oromo may suspect him, or he is in the deal with the Abiy, the Abiy allied Amxara and Eritrea that have some contact with ONLF. One thing that is very positive and result of 100 year struggle is that, Ethiopians for first time realize that the Somali has a determining factor for its existence. All others like Amxara, Oromo..south can bring bloodshed in Ethiopia, but the Somali, Afar and Tigray can bring the end of Ethiopia. All three do not have any animosity in past or present. All three can easily agree to help each other if accidentaly something happens. That is a good thing.
  15. lol Arabas will always be Arabs. Young Arab dictators will always be Arabs. Most likely UAE got to the Young Prince. But to be fair this export is always seasonal never full year without interruption.
  16. Eritrea is a one man country. It means its day to day affair. Never forget also that Tigray/Afar from Ethiopia and also Sudan can take measures/eliminate him if they become desperate. Both are capable of doing it, and he knows it. Have a chat with some ONLF that were in Eritrea. Everybody was clearly told to not do any operations in Ethiopia without permission from Eritrea. Some 11 Ethiopian rebel organizations sat in Eritrea for 20 years. Some never been to Ethiopia at all. ONLF was the only one that can do some operations for obvious reasons.
  17. There are regions in Oromia and Amxara kilils where its worst than at the height of warlords and bandits in Somalia. As long as it was against Tigray government, it was OK. Now it has become problem of those who supported the disorder and chaos, which they thought was easy to bring back to order once they get to power. The Youth demonstrators now have taken life of their own. They have replaced local governments in many regions in both Kilil. Somali, Afar and Tigray are relatively most and only orderly kilils in Ethiopia today.
  18. The Amxara were smart/deperste regarding Federalism. They made Abiy to soften his stance on it, and his support the little he had in Oromia was eroded. Even Kililka leader became hesitant and intimidated by Amxara, not to state uncompromising stance on federalism. On top of that there is this suspicious relation with Afwerki, who has openly stated that if Ethiopia wants peace should destroy the TPLF structures, mainly federalism and be like Eritrea where there is no respect for other Ethnics or Faiths. The power center has shifted in Ethiopia some 25 years ago. Now even the Somali who was considered like Foreigner has power to agree or disagree in Federalism. Abiy did not grasp how deep the past is in the present. He forgot there are government officials from Oromo who changed their names to Amxara name to go to school.
  19. For the Somali, its a wash. No significant benefits if he succeeds and no significant loss if he fails. Remember the oil can bring new problems. No body knows yet what the real stance of ONLF is, except for general talk. The Oromo also want to control and have a big cut on trade by Djibouti and now Somaliland. Which means a lot of unhappy Somali. That is probably why the Oromo are sleepless in Dirdaba, Harer and Addis Ababa, to take full control.
  20. It looks good on the surface, but the Oromo are actuallt removing him from places they want to control. They removed him from Air Force commander and moved him to Chief of Security a place they have summarily cleaned up prior. Now when they find out the Security is their weakest link (capacity, training, experience of all the new Oromos they filled the place with) they most likely want to do an overhaul of security. Most likely from South or even Tigray. I don;t think there is a Somali or Afar that can go into this position. The general was always accused of being Tigray in the past by Amxara even though he is from their kilil. For the Amxara a Muslim in any position of military or security command is new thing, for Tigray its an old thing.
  21. Ya that is what I would say. Even Churchill plagerized so many writers and looks good on him. Obama himself got it from his writers..
  22. Not him again. Always with Amxara lobby. He was against Kilil, Federalism..from beginning. The lie is that people like him and Amxara make it look like Ethiopia before Federalism was fair, equal, peaceful and hollywood love. The Somali alone has fought for 100 years. The last 10-15 years were relatively most peace the Somali has seen. The reason is ONLF was half and half, mostly wanting to give federalism a try. Oromos fought from Balle to Wellega now 50 years to separate, Tigray and Afar fought 44 years ago ... Muslim was second class. If it was not for federal system Ethiopia would have died in 1991. That is why Illey was enemy number 1 for Amxara and Abtigis number 1 friend. Its not because Illey was dictatorial, they do not care about it. What they cared about was Kililka gtowing was like a country within a country.
  23. The Amxara are throwing so many rumours and inuendos. This is one of them. Now they are accusing Abiy why he doesn't send army to Tigray. What they forget is Amxara are anti-federalism Tigray is not. There is order in Tigray. Any problem is manageable within Kilil no need for Federal.
  24. They are in a way. 2 Generals and one of them the highest in the military. Already temporarily replaced by Oromo. They had a discussion today on one of their TV channels. Very calmly discussing whether Ethiopia is worth the Tigray blood and losses. At what loss do we say its enough that this country is not worth the price we pay for it. Amazing and very calm debate.