Question: Why was the Hobyo case announced now? Its common to announce some big projects.when....

PM Abiy is feeling important and to be seen as projecting power. A lot of Ethiopians are now shaking in their boots/bare foot at the news/official that ISIS is on the move everywhere. Iraq, Syria are already accusing America and Israel for the second rise of ISIS, but unknown who to blame in Ethiopia.

Wrong on two counts. !. In appropriate word 2. The Amxara do not have any behind to be kissed right now. They themselves are looking for a behind to kiss like Abiy or Afwerki, now that Sudan is proven to be a higher level country.

This is the right time for Bixi and Dani to sit somewhere even in secrecy and talk things over. No point two bald men fighting for a comb. War of choice is always bad. What you take away now will be taken the same tomorrow and what you leave now may be given to you.

This is highest level developed and wealthy mens's integration. This is upper class subject not to be confused with Nomads camel grazing. This map is 21st century. I cannot laugh at it, since this fake also will take some innocent lives.

Everyone knows that something was signed between Kenya and Somalia when the 77 war started going bad. What exactly was it other than to state that Somalia has no claim to NFD? Blackmailing each other with probably non existent maps and borders is a bad idea. Never goes away. There are always children who become aults and remember when they think they need the issue.

More or less, it was the same in the 19th century scramble as well. Somebody needs money like Luisiana, Alaska or somebody needs strategic location like Somalia, Djibouti, Eritrea.. there are always sellers and buyers. The problem in Horn of Africa is people bargain with the core not only peripheral.

Yes, thanks to the Turkish a lot of progress has been done with the Army. The two problems are that as the Turkish got very busy with Syria, Iraq, America and EU, the Farmaajo government did not continue the work with the speed and intensity it had started. The Faraajo government also got too deep with regimes that are anti-Turkish in both Ethiopia and Eritrea which created some friction with Djibouti and in northern Somalia. Remember that with all the problems Somalis have more influence in Kenya than in Ethiopia. In Ethiopia the Somali and Oromo are competitors by geography, economy and past history. The Somali have a leg up in all these fields. By geography Somali have best location, by geography Somalis have their people all around them from Djibouti to Kenya. The Oromo on the other hand are surrounded by competitors in politics, economy, geography... You live in Canada. You should know very well that Quebec is more ethnic federalism than any Ethnic federal state in Ethiopia. You can't advertise or put your business name in Quebec with big English letters. There is a law in Canada and process if Province wants to separate, just as is in UK. What is the difference between Scottish government in UK and Somali government in Ethiopia, except one is in Africa, is poor and technologically not advanced. You of all persons should have known this fact that the Ethiopian structure is actually the same with different countries, called by different names. Switzerland cantoons are the same by slightly different system. In Switzerland system Kililka would be divided into 2 or 3 cantoons, but all would be Somali cantoons. In India few states are Ethnic states. As for separatism, what do you think the Alberta independence party? Its everywhere. Where ever there is a union there is also separatism. Its not one or the other. Its also not technological advancement or backwardness. Its not also rich and poor. It may go up or down depending on economy, but the fundamental tendencies do not change. Its wrong to assume that, if only Somalia had one centralized government, any unhappy area can be crushed and separatism disappear. Never worked that way. Some people maybe happy Sissi with Arab money and American/Israel help has kept power, but he is planting for Egypt problems that will be difficult to solve. Dignity is lost in the first place. Without that no people can survive by self rule. Always under somebody foreign.

The sands are shifting in Arabia and already looks like the sands of Somalia are also moving. Its amazing that what was expected to be most unstable Djibouti has outlived and out survived so many Arab sand changes, with very little scratch. Survived also 3 regime changes in Ethiopia. What is the secret? Can the rest of us learn something from it? Bravo Deni. War of choice is always work of empires, never of nations or peoples. Peoples and nations avoid wars to the extent they can. Empires create wars if they do not exist. For Puntland would be war of choice. Unless that war will propel Puntland to something much better, open one big door where does not exist....its not worth waging. Since Somalis are inpatient and winner takes all, if Puntland is patient for a year, the whole Horn will see big shift in a year. You will have saved your people, money and time and ready to take advantage of the changes. Imagine if next month Saudis and UAE go to war, using proxies which has started? Imagine if Turkish settle the bigger issues in Syria and Iraq and are able to devote time and resource in Somalia? Imagine if America either gets to skirmish with Iran or negotiate and the Saudi come to their senses that they have to find to live with Iran as far neighbors rather than fight and loose everything? There is nothing life threatening to Puntland from Somaliland. But there is a lot of life threatening things to Somaliland from Puntland.

Those who support Ethiopia now. Why were you against in 2006, where by now Somalia could have been one and changed 2-3 governments already? Have principles centered and based on the people. You can remove Moodabe now using Ethiopians, but never is secret that you are sowing seeds for the next cycle. When the Arab chairs go next round, your views and stance will also change. Somalia is in a location where both is good and bad for the people. Its bad because is making victims of the people without sing this location. Its good because the Somali people have it as owners. The solution should have been that both Faarmajo and Moodabe cut their ambitions a bit. Unlike SWS where a simple Ethiopian battalion can change the game, this Jubaland will move to Kenya and Ethiopia and come back at later time. It also will be connected to Puntland and Gal Mudug in mysterious ways.

Ghelleh is old school. He does not do harm to people that will be his neighbors, family when super powers change. He behaved almost the same way when the French had highest influence, when the French went against him, When the Americans thought have highest influence or when the Saudis and UAE thought have him in the bag. He did not sabotage anyone in hiding. Even to ONLF, he told them they cannot operate from Djibouti, the risk is too big and risks losing Djibouti, before taking the minimum steps. He maybe a dictator, but does not operate face book style. He is comfortable working with village elders in both Ethnics as he is comfortable working with Chinese, Japanese, French, Americans, Arabs, Africans... Take a look at relations Somaliland and Djibouti for 30 years and even decade before that. Highly matured and consistent policy. Live and let live. One day we may become same country or friendly neighboring countries. That is perfect indication on how Ghelleh operates. Friction is allowed as long as it does not go to destroying one or the other. Hate is not acceptable, but quarel is.

That was obvious from the begining. Ethiopia cannot use AMISOM since Uganda and Kenya are there. Ethiopia has to use special units that are not even part of the normal army even in Ethiopia. These units can also be Eritrean. Abiy cannot and does not have enough control to do operations that are not normal. There maybe Generals who do not like what he is doing. There maybe Ethnics who do not like what he is doing.

America may have favored Ethiopia, Eritrea and Somalia at this time, regimes that terribly need America's umbrella and Arabs money to survive, but they are all sowing trouble for themselves. Kenya and Djibouti if they so choose can destabilize Ethiopia far easier and far faster. Somalia seems to have been reduced to choosing influencers and regimes that do not have anything solid are the influencers. In many cases choosing chiefs of districts.

galbeedi, I am afraid you have forgotten two clear facts very fast in this case: 1. Ethiopia had 2 ports and 1000km sea coast for 40 years and for thousands years before that 2. Djibouti is like their country for the Ethiopians, share people and have invested billions in last decade. Ethiopians were willing to abondon all this for few billions from UAE. How could Ethiopians trust Somalia more than Djibouti? How can Ethiopians trust Somaliland more than Djibouti (Here at least was not one or the other, it was 80%/20% of port business to Djibouti/Somaliland) Pipeline km does not matter much. Take a look at the length Turkey went to from Euroasia to bypass Armenia. Went to Georgia a country Turkey does not trust, but can control any day. The pipeline at that part is 3 times longer than what could have been. Habyo or Bassaso..are all beneficial to Kililka since they cover more territory with roads railroads, but I think the wishful thinking and uncertain future is killing the present Somalia, present Ethiopia... What would you say if the Ethiopian regime changes tomorrow 180 degree?

They are trying to kill Moodabe at the source, break the peace at Kismayu and make it a war zone. Very cruel and cowardly way to fight a man. Total disregard to the people. Even if they win it will be winning the battle, losing the war.

Ethiopia has fallen into the hands of children. The Tigray always knew what ever they do in Somalia has direct consequences in Kililka and vice versa. PM Abiy thinks he can get away with acting little cow boy in Somali affairs. This is completely wrong and aganst interests of Ethiopia in the service of somebody else either with deep pockets or big stick like America. Iran Foreign Miniter to the ruler of Kwait: You and I will remain here (our two peoples). All those who are trying to destroy the area will be gone. That should guide neighbors always even if they go to war against each other. What Faarmajo and Abiy are doing is absolutely childish and cruel to the people.

Both UAE and Saudi Arabia have common objectives: 1. Continuation of the Janjeweed militia fighting in Yemen for them 2. Not to have a revolution succeed in the Arab world The accusation in Sudan is that the Military are just Al Bashir by another name. The military had said they will honor agreements with Turkey and Qatar previously. The opposition is also not too keen on siding with Saudi and UAE against Turkey and Qatar.

My friend. How can the FGS demand or even so kindly request, when its only issue is to keep the same system, but favorable to FGS? The constitution is placed somewhere safe to avoid one man one vote by FGS. Faarmajo is comfortable with existing clan sub-clan system since there is less people to deal with and less people to bribe.

Somaliland should take politley what it can get from Puntland. This Arab malady of bragging about Garowe, when its clear that Puntland is critical to Somaliland is balderdash. Somaliland and Puntland should not fight over borders. Period. It never made sense in the past and does not make sense now.

And if he is not re-elected and the reason is because of Ethiopia, the consequences are worst. Which one do you choose?

If Moodabe is re-elected that will be the end of the story for some time to come, until all the other forces can find a means of alliance, which is difficult to do at this time. Farmaajo strategy becomes obvious at this point it involves Al Shabab in one way or another. Most likely not to affect Shabab or use them to plug some of the holes, in the plan.

People are thinking now from the opposite. What would happen if Moodabe is not re-elected? If you don't have an answer to taht then close your nose and re-elect Moodabe and move on. Accusing him of friendship with Kenya while sitting on Ethiopian arms is disrespecting the people and meaningless. Faarmajo better realize that SWS and Jubaland are different. PM Abiy also should realize the same facts. SWS do not have a powerful community or organized force in Ethiopia. Jubaland has a very impactful force.

This will end up creating unsolvable friction between Farmaajo and Moodabe. It may extend to further institutions. The objection for having neighboring countries in 2006 was precisely for that reason. Ethiopia is trying to hit two birds with one stone. Jubaland and Kililka. The Os including ONLF are determined to have solid base and home base in all 3 countries. Somalia, Ethiopia and Kenya. All three countries policy to each other will be influenced, if not determined by the Os. That is now almost a reality. Ethiopia and Kenya are trying to shift their relations to the Oromo and Somalia and Ethiopia are trying to shift to the other regions, other than Puntland or Jubaland. This is bound to fail. Farmaajo should have tried by using Djibouti instead of Ethiopia. Any Somali should never forget that Kenya and Ethiopia will never be opposed to each other. As a matter of interest.

If it takes more than 20 years t write a constitution and get it ratified somehow either by representatives vote, direct vote, state's vote..some way, then this is more than logistics problem. Its intentional even with current government. They ousted a speaker saying he was obstacle to constitution wok, did few show meetings in Mugadishu and when the news cycle expired they threw the constitutional file as well.

Hopefully the meeting with Sudan included the issue of Somalilanders studying in Sudan and more of it. Sudan has best uiversities better than Ethiopia or other east african countries.