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Everything posted by Old_Observer
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UAE warplanes bomb Saudi-backed troops in southern Yemen after new advance By News Desk 2019-08-29 The UAE air force reportedly killed and wounded several members of the Islah forces during their aerial attack over the Aden District on Thursday. Tensions between the Saudi and UAE-backed forces are running high after the Islah Party captured Aden from the Southern Movement on Wednesday.
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Population numbers: Somalis race to join big four
Old_Observer replied to Che -Guevara's topic in Politics
Che, This is a two edged sword. The more the Somali, the more splitting happens. More inter Somali competition also happens. Unless the outlook changes to fighting against foreigners the Somali cannot unite. The Somali will fight for the little grassland that is near instead of organizing some special Nomad groups and go raid new grass lands. The way things are at the moment, this is actually more bad than good. -
The dual gift of location, both good and bad
Old_Observer replied to Old_Observer's topic in Politics
That is coming very fast. If crisis like 2008, 1927..etc happens in the world, more people will perish in Africa and the middle east for lack of government. Somalia maybe in 100 enclaves, but the Nomad will survive by experience. Ugaas, Sultan, Shiek's, Boqor...will all be dusted up and functioning in no time for surviving. That means your one Somalia for all Somalis will have to be shelved for another century. -
I am glad the PM Abiy government did not listen to its main insiders from G7 and others. National movements never die, they just kill you slowly. The Sidama have full support from the Oromo and others. Only the Amxara were opposed to the Sidama statehood. If it was not for Abtigis, Somalis should have been more prominent in supporting the Sidama more than Oromo. It's in Somalis best interest that Ethiopia is further decentralized. No Somali except some opportunists and bought out politicians should ever support centralization in Ethiopia.
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Were we on the same table when I heard this article? First question from one of the group was why ONLF didn't think of something like this. ONLF would be the only one capable that can play in the international arena. Then came the cold water from the rest of us: 1. This could have enritched few bosses, but would have brought corrupt culture that would not be cleaned in generations. 2. It for sure would bring what the easterners call Karma, it does not matter when. Always remember Sultan Salhadin saying: Don't spill blood uncalled for, "blood never sleeps". He gave a monastery in Jerusalem to the Xabeshi for staying out of the crusades. Its called Sultan Monastery Dier Sultan and the Xabeshi own it to this day. The Janjeweed will fall under some sword very fast and their downfall will not be pretty for them. With all this money they have not built a single clinic or school or business for the people that provide them with young fighters. On the contrary they have become a mafia group that relies on America or UAE or Saudi protection. Never also forget how much ONLF lost in support, in fighters inclusing members of central committee for the operation they did in Kililka on the Chinese and Xabeshi workers, which was purely for money. Almost half of the organization was so disgusted and reconciliation with Kililka govt gained greatly.
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Does anyone know what those village militias of 20 years ago in local conflicts of nomads are doing today. They are international player that put all the mercenary/private firms like blackwater, executive outcome...to shame. About 8 years ago the Janjeweed became legitimate force in Sudan as Rapid Security Forsces RSF Rapid forces of Sudan. The reason the Saudis and UAE were fast in helping Sudan was to support the Janjeweed/RSF gain even more power in Sudan. That has been achieved. US and Other countries need them to support Haftar of Libya as they supported the downfall of Gadafi. Saudis want to use them in Yemen and just yesterday no one knows who took back a province from Southern separatists, Janjeweed or Al Qaeda. EU wants the help of Janjeweed to stop or slow the migration of Africans to Europe, for this they are financed fully by EU. Some HoA governments are also suspected of sharing in the spoils. _____________________________________________________ Gold, weapons, fighters: Sudanese Janjaweed's international path to power WWW.MIDDLEEASTEYE.NET Now better known as the RSF, Sudan's fearsome paramilitary group has a long history of involvement in foreign countries that has continued unabated since the uprising
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The dual gift of location, both good and bad
Old_Observer replied to Old_Observer's topic in Politics
Sea coast and ports is great to have, but is not so critical for having decent governance or economy. You can even have great shipping companies or navy, but is expensive. The Swiss found a solution by going to banking/finance, agriculture, manufacturing, tourism..etc so they are self sufficient, not involved in wars last 200 years, armed and dangerous for their size and what they need. Good manufacturing and food supply so not much importing. Some countries like Ethiopia have lost sea coast 150-100 years ago and still not accepted the situation and create an economy based on that reality. Still hoping there is some chaos and get a chance to snatch some port. Very sad and very bad. Sea coast loss was accepted in Afghanistan, the problem is they are also at the center of roads Euro-Asia. -
3 countries in the world suffered more than they gained so far from their location. 1. Afghanistan 2. Somalia (Somali all) 3. Yemen After 1000 years Afghanistan have been now completely land locked for almost 100 years. Yemen has ports and sea coast, but not being used Except for Djibouti Somali also not using ports and sea coast Depending on how one sees it, all these countries also have resources from oil/gas to special earth and uranium which can be next pain if not settled. What do you think is the solution for the location problem? Should these countries give up some of their location? The Afghan gave up sea access after their conflict with British. Yemen gave up two provinces (99 year lease) to Saudi Arabia and the British are involved. Somali gave up two enclaves and British are involved. Yet none of these brought peace and security for the rest. News: The Rabo Saudi forces have re taken Aden after a fierce fight. It was taken by Southern separatists UAE forces 2 weeks ago. Al Qaeda is also in waiting and might have allied with Saudi/Rabo forces to retake Abyan and now Airport of Aden. Never ending shifting sands.
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Jerrymandering Somalia style. Why all the fuss?
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PICTURE: The Hobyo Port will be Somalia's Biggest State of The Art Port.
Old_Observer replied to Dalmar1's topic in Politics
Not even the propaganda face book postings are done and the Farmaajo's are in trouble in the region of Hobyo. Probably fighting over the money allocated to create web page for Hobyo port and fill it with pictures from Djibouti. -
Don't give up hope and go into destructive mode instead of constructive. Don't bring down those who are better in order to be like the rest. Build up to Somalia not destroying down to a village. Above all do not wish ill even your opponents like Puntland. Work to better your self and be ahead of them. Not wish to bring them down.
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PICTURE: The Hobyo Port will be Somalia's Biggest State of The Art Port.
Old_Observer replied to Dalmar1's topic in Politics
Do you think Farmaajo is so smart, so powerful to play Qatar/UAE on one table? Wth the enthusiasm of Ethiopia and Eritrea and Farmaajo's half hearted and rare visits to Djibouti, me thinks he is inclined to UAE. The Turkish are also not that active with Farmaajo. -
Ethiopia, Eritrea, Somalia are: Middle east/Africa in UAE/SAUDI/EGYPtian camp World are in America/French camp Somalia according to you is in Turkish/Qatar camp Is Farmaajo so independent, so powerful like America to be able to play the Saudi and Qatar camps? You may have your wishes, but you are not unrealistic. Farmaajo is so weak he always tries to avoid Djibouti, so afraid that Afwerki and Abiy will not be happy. The only reason Faarmajo could not take measures during the Puntland elections, but easily took in SWS, with Ethiopians to boot, is simply because Puntland is relatively most organozed, most powerful, most impactful of all regions. Before the changes in Ethiopia/Eritrea the grouping was: Ethiopia, Sudan, Djibouti, Somalia with Turkey and China. That now is little damaged. I say little because no one except China can maintain Ethiopia alive economically. If Turkish get enough time and resources to focus in HoA, they have enough support even in Ethiopia. Sudan not much changed, they already confirmed all projects with Turkey will continue as agreed. As long as Sissi is in Egypt, Eritrea will never even exchange greetings with Turkish. How do you think is Farmaajo maneuvering between UAE and Qatar? In case of Djibouti Farmaajo is with UAE, that you can see it in your sleep. He is with Eritrea and Ethiopia under UAE and America. Soon Eritrea Egypt will be under total umbrella of Saudis Ethiopia under UAE. What ever friction there is, will also impact them.
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Me thinks, Berebera was taken by UAE for three reasons: 1. If they fail totally in Yemen, Berbera is closest and safer port they have to be a player around Bab Elmendeb. 2. They knew that there will be changes in Ethiopia, since it has been about 3 years in the works from USA. America was unable to separate and break the Tigray from China, Turkey and Russia, but did not have any replacement. Any replacement should be friends with Eritrea and not Sudan. UAE was also in conflict with Ghelleh all those years, but Assab was useless in competition to Djibouti. 3. Berbera is only threat to Djibouti never Assab even in the 19th century, 20th or now 21st. Therefore UAE can threaten Djibouti only from Berbera. If yu think was for military use, it does not make sense. Assab was more useful to fight Houthi than Berbera could ever be. Practically that is also wat happened.
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PICTURE: The Hobyo Port will be Somalia's Biggest State of The Art Port.
Old_Observer replied to Dalmar1's topic in Politics
Where the referee counting? Oh I know no referee since all countries are in each corner. Ghelleh is not even watching on TV. He has told his guard to record it, just in case if Ghelleh wants to see it some time. -
PICTURE: The Hobyo Port will be Somalia's Biggest State of The Art Port.
Old_Observer replied to Dalmar1's topic in Politics
Who in his right mind is going to invest on a port from almost zero while there are ports that can function with some weekend repaurs and upgrades? Who in his right mind is going to invest billions while he can be working from some other port with addition of few modern conatainer handling cranes? Polittical stability and security is key. That is why Djibouti beat everyone in addition to location. Djibouti beat Yemen. Imagine that. Somali ports as per opportunity, peace and security and economic sense: Berbera, Kismayu, Bassaso, Mugadishu..all others. If China wins the trade war Kismayu will be number one after Djibouti and Berbera, since it can serve Ethiopia, South Sudan and Kenya and is away from the red sea troubles. -
What happened to the galbeedi here. Moodabe derangement syndrome. Instead of the informed, matured, respected elder here you have been reduced to a troll. All Moodabe is telling you is that what is good for the goose is good for the gander. The Abiy, Afwerqi, Farmaajo train has hit a snag. Its hundred miles an hour trip through SWS fields has now to go into some mountainous territory. As all the propaganda about pipeline to Assab, modern road to Assab and functioning port for Assab has all but disappeared now, the latest charade about Hobyo will follow swiftly. Either on principle you are against any foreign interference or you have to accept if your brother chooses Saudi interference your other brother will choose Egyptian interference. I did not mention Ethiopia since these days Ethiopia is not a guest, but a brother, part of the family in Mugadishu.
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UAE will give its highest award to Neranda Modi of India for the treatment he is meting on Kashmiris. Here is a read on Saudi and UAE history that will make anyone go aha aha I did not know this..it all makes sense now. _________________________________________ When the Saudis and Emiratis fall out. A history of bad blood. David Hearst 22 August 2019 15:31 UTC | Last update: 12 hours 41 min ago Saudi Arabia and the Emirates have endured decades of rivalry, and tension between the Zayeds and the Sauds is now exploding in Yemen Mohamed bin Zayed al-Nahyan (L), Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, meeting with Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman near the holy city of Mecca on 12 July (Handout/AFP) Just over a fortnight after he issued a decree stripping Kashmir of its semi-autonomous status, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will arrive in Abu Dhabi on Friday to collect a prize - the Order of Zayed, the statelet’s highest civilian award. This makes perfect business sense for the little Sparta of the Gulf, hell-bent on establishing its own seaborne empire, from the ports of Yemen to the Horn of Africa, the Indian Ocean and beyond. India is the third-largest energy consumer in the world and the Emiratis’ second-largest trading partner. So why should the Emiratis care for seven million Kashmiris in Indian-administered Kashmir, whose internationally recognised dispute is now to be treated as an “internal matter” for India. Its ally, lord and master, Saudi Arabia, should. This is not such breezy matter for the House of Saud, which bases its legitimacy on presenting itself as the voice of Muslims, not least the four million living in the Kashmir Valley. Elephant traps The Emirati path to the unlimited markets of India is strewn with elephant traps for their neighbour Saudi Arabia. It starts in Riyadh’s backyard, Yemen. Emirati and Saudi strategies for a country the two nations have wrecked in their intervention against the Houthis have clearly diverged. 'Has UAE lost it?' Emirati plan to award Modi amid Kashmir crackdown lambasted Read More » Both train and pay local militias. But the Saudis want the effort directed at the north, from where all the attacks on Saudi air bases, airports and oil infrastructure are launched. Having tried and failed to bring the defunct regime of the former Yemeni dictator Ali Abdullah Saleh back to life through his son, the Emiratis have embarked on another strategy. Amid a widescale troop redeployment, the UAE is clearly backing southern separatists. With the Emiratis behind it, the Southern Transitional Council’s forces have seized the port city of Aden, and are now massing around a number of military camps in neighbouring Abyan province that are loyal to the exiled Yemeni president, Abd Rabbuh Mansour Hadi. Even amid the fog of war and the ever-shifting matrix of tribal loyalty and allegiance in Yemen, there is now little doubt as to what is going on in Aden. Just before he was “deported,” as he termed it, from Aden, Hadi’s interior minister, Ahmed al-Maisari, posted a video congratulating his brothers in the UAE “for their victory over us”. “We are leaving but only to come back. We are speaking to you from Aden, we are heading to the airport in an hour or two so that they can ‘deport’ us to Riyadh,” he said. “Thanks to the [Southern Transitional Council] for robbing our houses, cars and personal belongings.” Maisari said the separatist takeover of Aden had been powered by 400 armoured vehicles driven by mercenaries doing the UAE’s bidding. Eyes on Hodeidah Aden may not be only the only Yemeni port to fall to an Emirati-funded separatist southern state. Dr Mohammad al-Rumihi, a Kuwaiti political analyst writing in the Saudi-controlled Asharq al-Awsat, suggested the breakup of Yemen, a state he depicted as being in a permanent state of war, was a good thing. “However, if we have a true republic in the south that would pave the way for the building of a modern state there, it will then be able to control the mainland in the south and safeguard the Red Sea - the Strait of Mandeb,” he wrote. “These are the two important terminals for international maritime. It will also prevent terrorist organisations such as al-Qaeda and ISIS from filling the political vacuum.” A man raises a poster showing Saudi Arabia's King Salman amid a gathering of supporters of a faction of Yemen's southern separatists, waving flags of the former South Yemen (AFP) Warming to this theme of the breakup of Yemen, Rumihi eyed the northern port of Hodeidah as the next prize for southern separatists. “If we annex the port of Hodeidah (to the south), the north would then be able to find its own mechanism that would guarantee a certain degree of stability,” he posited. This amounts to a policy of letting the unconquerable north of Yemen rot. Is this in the interests of Riyadh, which already is hard put to protect its airports and military bases from Houthi drones and rockets deep inside the kingdom? And who, by the way, has sent its troops “on a training and advise mission” to guard the Saudi royal family? Pakistan. History of bad blood The confidence that the Emiratis show in pursuing strategies which openly diverge with Riyadh’s is a relatively recent phenomenon in the relationship between the two Arabian Peninsula states. As Hilal Khashan, professor of political science at the American University in Beirut, writes, Saudi Arabia and the Emirates have endured decades of hostility over land and sea disputes, and rivalry between the Zayeds and the Sauds. “When the UAE came into existence in December 1971, Riyadh achieved its objective of excluding Qatar and Bahrain from the new federal state. Tremendous Saudi pressure forced the UAE to sign the 1974 Treaty of Jeddah that ceded claims to the Khor al-Udaid inland sea that linked it to Qatar,” Khashan wrote. Saudi Arabia and the Emirates have endured decades of hostility over land and sea disputes, and rivalry between the Zayeds and the Sauds “Riyadh refused to recognize the UAE’s independence until its president, Zayed bin Sultan, signed the treaty under duress although the UAE has not yet ratified the treaty. When UAE head Khalifa bin Zayed took office in 2004, he visited Riyadh and demanded the treaty’s abrogation, ushering in an explosive crisis between the two states that took six years to subside.” When a young, power-hungry Saudi prince in Mohammad bin Salman happened along, the elder and wiser Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed was not slow to seize his opportunity. It was he and his ambassador Yousef al-Otaiba, not the Saudi establishment, who beat a path to the door of the Oval Office for Mohammad bin Salman, as I have recorded in past reports. This is not to absolve the Saudi crown prince of agency and responsibility for the terror in which he has plunged his country, arresting, torturing and plundering political opponents and family rivals alike - all under the guise of “anti-corruption” and “modernisation”. But the fact that Mohammed bin Salman is now surrounded by henchmen whose primary loyalty is to Abu Dhabi’s crown prince has not gone unnoticed by the rest of the royal family. Even with their pliant prince in total control of the family and kingdom, the Emiratis keep a close watch on affairs in Riyadh and monitor the slightest deviation from orthodoxy, Saudi subservience A limited circulation monthly report on Saudi Arabia, prepared by the Emirati Policy Centre, a think tank with close links to the UAE’s government and intelligence, notes how cravenly beholden the Saudis are to a vacillating US policy on Iran. It reads: “Despite the fact that [Saudi Arabia] was successful in hosting three summits during the month of May, there was a degree of ambiguity in their calculations regarding Iran. This was due to Riyadh’s reliance on the American position. Abu Dhabi’s crown prince has coached his Saudi pupil to ignore Muslim feeling and Saudi heritage - but these are heavy files for the Saudi state to abandon “The Saudi position became strong and robust when America used strong language against Iran. However, the Saudi tone decreased when the Americans emphasised diplomacy ... It was then that Saudi Arabia took a tough line in condemning and threatening Iran, as was obvious during the ... summits.” The tone is clear. The Emirati leadership is alive to, and contemptuous of, Saudi weakness. The Emiratis are, however, playing a dangerous game of Russian roulette with Mohammad bin Salman. It was under Mohammed bin Zayed’s tutelage that the Saudi crown prince established his own direct links with Israel and went out of his way to ignore the Palestinians. His abandonment of the occupation of Kashmir goes hand in hand with his policy on Palestine. Palestinians, instead, should learn to become “good Israelis,” he once said. Abu Dhabi’s crown prince has coached his Saudi pupil to ignore Muslim feeling and Saudi heritage - but these are heavy files for the Saudi state to abandon. And the price for this in the Arab and Muslim world is high. It’s not being paid by a small commercial enterprise like the UAE, but it is being paid by a state like Saudi Arabia, which weakens each year under this misrule Once America wakes up to the fact that Mohammad bin Salman is a net liability to US military and strategic interests in the Gulf, he will be gone. Some Saudis close to the royal family think this could happen before he becomes king. And then all Emirati bets are off. The return to business as usual between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi could be sooner than Mohammed bin Zayed thinks. David Hearst David Hearst is the editor in chief of Middle East Eye. He left The Guardian as its chief foreign leader writer. In a career spanning 29 years, he covered the Brighton bomb, the miner's strike, the loyalist backlash in the wake of the Anglo-Irish Agreement in Northern Ireland, the first conflicts in the breakup of the former Yugoslavia in Slovenia and Croatia, the end of the Soviet Union, Chechnya, and the bushfire wars that accompanied it. He charted Boris Yeltsin's moral and physical decline and the conditions which created the rise of Putin. After Ireland, he was appointed Europe correspondent for Guardian Europe, then joined the Moscow bureau in 1992, before becoming bureau chief in 1994. He left Russia in 1997 to join the foreign desk, became European editor and then associate foreign editor. He joined The Guardian from The Scotsman, where he worked as education correspondent.
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Somalia State Key to War on Islamist Militants Re-Elects Leader
Old_Observer replied to Dhoodaan's topic in Politics
This has become Moodabe day under the sun. Radio's, TVs, Newspapaers, Governments, gossips, tea shops in East Africa are talking about this election. He has increased his margin of safety by twofold just by doing this. -
The only power that has credibility left to even sit the Yemenis together is only Turkish. Other than distributing humanitarian assistance they are not involved in the destruction. Its unfortunate that both America and Britain do not want Turkish involved and the Turkish are also very busy around home. The rest of the powers are all either taken sides or done cruel things like blocades of food and medicine.
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You do not benefit anything. Actually you lose a lot since Berbera will totally give way to Aden as Assab Eritrea has given way to Djibouti no matter how much propaganda was told for pipeline, refinery, modern port to compete with Djibouti..etc Its not good to wish ill on others, especially when you have nothing to gain.
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galbeedi, You can be proud of all Somalis of any enclave on this one. There might be difference in intensity of the NO, but all Somalis said no to blood money on Yemen. From Ghelleh to Farmaajo to Moodabe everybody said NO. As you said Gheleh puts Eritrea to shame, for not wanting a penny of blood money. The Saudis were forced to open a base in Djibouti that cannot be used for Yemen. The UAE had to do bombing with aircraft and missiles from Assab Eritrea. Farmaajo said no to Egypt. Moodabe and Gas said no to sending ilitias like Sudan allowed the Janjeweed militais to make money on their own. All Somali were noble on Yemen.
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The balance of forces in Yemen has completely changed last 2 months and now the maps are changing in major way. The Southern separatists who were only a minor force until few weeks ago have catapulted themselves to No.3 1. Ansarullah 2. Old government late Abdullah Saleh 3. Southern separatists 4. Alqaeda 5. Fake government of Hadi UAE has been hit by the door while running out. They have to support the separatists otherwise UAE will be kicked from Aden totally, and yet they cannot eliminate Saudi's man and his group. Catch 22. They cannot delay their withdrawal since their home is at risk. Saudis want to stop the war, but Ansarullah smells blood now and want to chase the Saudis out of the two southern provinces that are on a 99 year lease to Saudis. As the mercenaries see this shenanigan are not willing to take risk, thus weakening the Saudi even more. Everyone in Horn needs to take notice and never overcommitt your feet on Arab Sand.
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It has been more than a decade since such money making fake exercises were spoken all around East Africa from Uganda to Somalia. Again this is making a comeback. PM Abiy had promised to get rid of the anti-terrorist law when elected. He recently used it on the Amxara area disturbances. And now since he informed Ethiopians that Al Qaeda, ISIS or versions of hem is a major threat, he will continue. Who is paying who?
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