Old_Observer

Nomad
  • Content Count

    3,669
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    30

Everything posted by Old_Observer

  1. Z. Barre did not even tell WSLF when he signed with Kenya. The question was, if we are fighting for all Somalis to be under the same tent, why are we fighting even a stronger state when you are signing part of us away to kenya for ever? After a meeting in Djibouti he had agreed to sign the same with Ethiopia and delimit the border completely, but one Ethiopian official took that item out for next meeting so that not to humiliate the Somali. There is nothing dictators would not do or say when in touble. Mengistu also tried similar with his Rebels, except they were stronger then him
  2. The relationships were as follows: Arabs had nothing to do with Aidiid, he was brought in by Mengistu for Ethiopia to avoid northerners and to prevent the Ethiopian Rebels from their friends in Somalia like SSDF and WSLF. Somaliland force was mainly supported by officers in the chain more than Mengistu. Mengistu and his close circle did not want any Northerner in Somalia or Ethiopia. They are very similar too, now one can see why Mengistu hated Northerners in Somalia as well. The biggest traitor foreign country was Egypt for late Barre. They promised the sky including free soviet made weapons since they were changing to western weapons, doctors and any non-front line assistance. Once the war began they disappeared. SNM to give credit where its due, never dealt with Ethiopia by throwing their fellow Somalis under the bus. They never tried to take advantage of the SSDF and Mengistu conflicts. They did not try to take advantage of the WSLF and Somalia conflicts and splits. They cannot be blamed of taking short cuts or short time advantage long term pain. You can observe their behaviour later as well. EPRDF/Tigray was completely and close connection with SSDF. Somaliland has kept at all times with self respect and also respect for the Somali in general. Djibouti and Kililka know this.
  3. Xaaji, You seem to have tendency of looking at the Amxara more than they even look at themselves. Do you think the Amxara would have amounted to anything without: 100% accepting British, Italian and French demands and borders? Agew and Oromo who both are now claiming their own against the Amxara none Could not do anything against Eritrea once Agew and some extent Oromo lost enthusiasm for keeping Eritrea by force. The Afar and Tigray of course did not have this enthusiasm from the days of colonialism. Ethiopia has changed. The next Ethiopia can only be again different maybe fall apart or split like Sudan..but never the Ethiopia that Italy, British and French set up, determined its borders and supported it. Couple of years Oromo language will be working language means bilingual. Addis Ababa will certainly become Oromo, the Agew are achieving victory as I write. You are missing these momentous issues that will change Ethiopia not towards Amxara, but far away from them. Abtigis was friends with some opposition like G7 and he is stuck there. Or as it happens to some, he does not have that Nomad self confidence that says don't let them see you sweat. He has lost his Somali Nomad confidence, and has accepted either Oromo or Amxara as leaders. Even smaller Ethnics, even Ethnics that never lifted a gun against Ethiopia have better confidence than him.
  4. History is written by those who won, even if temporarily. Here are facts, dry facts no emotions or analysis or excuses: 1. Every Somali was colonized 2. The only parts colonized by force are Kililka and Puntland and anyone closely associated with both. 3. Somaliland, Djibouti and NFD had what can be called choice of colonizer and also system of interaction between colonizer and colonized. 4. Puntland also achieved the same rules of interaction between colonizer and colonized, since the Italians were worried that the Kingdom can rise again and ally with British or French or the rising Turkish and of course with Kililka and wage war. 5. If the choice left was only to chose colonizers Somalis would have chose British, French in that order. Just take Sudan (one of only two in Africa to have had resistance to British colonialism, just like Puntland to Italian, both lost) handling of problems a hundred times bigger than Somali problems, look at Kenya, Uganda...etc Look at Somalia, Eritrea, Libya and Albania Which one is better? Its not even close...governance, education, respect for the colonized even as lower class...etc
  5. I thought you knew something about Ethiopia. If Tigray, Afar, Oromo, Sidama, Somali...don't even consider him as useful let alone a hero, how can you even say Ethiopians have one common hero. There is no Xabeshi without the Tigre and Tigray since Xabeshi means mixed race. The rest is all partial like a clan or two from Afar, a clan or two from Saho and few clans from Agew that are deeply mixed with either the Tigre or Tigray or both. There is actually no more as contraversial as Menelik in Ethiopia. How could the Afar take him for a hero when he arrested their Sultan by arranging with Italy and France to attack the Sultan from 3 sides? How can the Oromo take him for a hero when they have monument to remember the breasts he cut and the hands of men he cut? How can the Somali take him for a hero? How can the Sidama or Welayta take him for a hero? I think Tigray and Afar actually are tolerant, unless you force them to sing Menelik's praises. They accept that he did everything for his tribe by accepting everything the Europeans asked. They both know it was the Europeans who won who planed and who executed their plan. If you never had a controlling state and is developed enough to have schools to teach children a common hero or common history..you cannot have common hero. The Amxara were so backward they were only capable to use guns Europeans gave them. They can't have schools to teach Ethiopians common culture or history. And now its impossible to have common history. Anything the Tigray do not accept cannot be Xabeshi history. Other nationalities can tolerate the Tigray, but not Amxara fake history.
  6. I hope there are some adult Somalis left in the Kililka government. Ethiopia is just so shaky, someone need to be ready at least to keep order and safety in Kililka if something sudden happens. Cagjar is totally out of this plan. His only work if he does is just to totally destroy anything Illey. He keeps shouting on Ethiopian media 24/7 that Illey was separatist, as if that is a crime anywhere, even in Ethiopia. Its only a crime in the eyes of Amxara. Everybody else in Ethiopia says, so what, as long as he promotes what he wants peacefully and legally. Its his constitutional right to be separatist. One of the people who made sure self determination was included in the constitution were Somalis.
  7. Somebody needs to tell/advice Cagjar that the Amxara will not respect him if he does not respect himself as Somali first. They are shouting his name, only because they are so desperate and no other Ethnic would lend his name to be used as their friend except Cagjar. So sad.
  8. Che, Actually this could be very dangerous for unitaries and irridentists. It only takes one region to start saying "Let them have referendum" and then its domino effect. Remember Ethiopia fought to keep Eritrea for 30 years and when the Tigray/Afar have said "We don't need this war, if they want to go let them vote and go". That was game changer and Eritrea was on its way. Some including Eritreans even say that the Tigray kicked us out, we could have had confederation.
  9. I am afraid this opportunity has been missed for Somalia in 2006. Then it was a fashion for rich countries to completely or partialy write off debt for some future business prospect. Not now. Everyone from America down is swiming in debt and even America is cutting all aid and gifts to everyone. Don't throw good money after bad idea now for the likes of Farmaajo to make trips for debt relief.
  10. BTW DNA will soon put to rest the tribal lineage claims. It would be very funny if the Imam is found to be half or full Xabeshi. The Hareri have a lot of Xabeshi in them.
  11. We need to stop this unrealistic and never ending fights to find an over all hero for all. Since the Somali have never been under one state as far back as 1000 years to this date, and hero are made on an issue that affects most people in a state, its impossible to have common view on anyone except Poets, Religious leaders or intellectuals Ullema, etc. Even in Ethiopia which at least nominally had a state, they do not have a common hero. galbeedi, My friend you are mistaken on one very fundamental issue about the war with Xabeshi. It was not a religious war. All the mini states of Hareri, Hausa, Zeylac and others had common peeve with the Xabeshi. Tax The Turkish had battles in north Ethiopia through Eritrea and Sudan about a Gold mine. The Gold mine was owned by Turkish, but by permission concession to Xabeshi kings. Then the Xabeshi villages around under leadership of a Muslim Shiek (there is a village named after him), expelled the Turkish for mistreating workers and took over the mine. The Xabeshi king tried to take it, but was threatened. The Turkish tried 3 times and failed to take control of the mine and the area. The Tigre and the Afar kings and Sultans refused to fight against their kins. So the Turkish found someone that can fight the Xabeshi and financed and armed them. Still the Turkish did not control the mine and left the campaign and went home. As soon as the Turkish left the Xabeshi and Portuguese attacked and the campaign was defeated immediately. All wars have something behind them. BTW there is connection between Hareri and Xabeshi north (Tigray and Afar at least) The rest of Ethiopians and mainly Amxara accuse the Tigray/Afar for making Hareri a Kilil of about 20,000 while millions like Sidama..etc are only zones. The Hareri also were trying to use other alphabets to write their language, but then they chose to use Geez and they say its only alphabet that can be used to wrte the language and sounds fully. Among the Somali fighters Ma-r-h were most violet and almost all church burnings and forced conversions were done by them. Others did not burn churches or convert by force. If you look at the map it will show you this fact. It was not a religious war. As for Ethnic identity and tribal leneage of the leaders, its all verbal or word of the mouth. The Arab writer wrote what the people around him told him, he has no way of investigating. First casualty of war is truth. The Afar, Argoba..were on both sides. Adal (kingdoms/Sultanates) vs. Abyssinia (kingdoms) war would be fair name, otherwise the Portuguese and Turkish would have gained more than the locals. Portueguese split with Xabeshi and the Portueguese were expelled since Xabeshi enemity to Catholics Turkish and Ahmed Gurey split because the Turkish did not achieve their objective and Ahmed Gurey got entangled on Religious war that was not the obejective.
  12. Its amazing how stu-pid people can get. The Agew are only asking for auronomy and self governemnt in their area. The Amxara are saying NO you should be ruled by us and speak our language and become Amxara. The Amxara are way behind. Let alone Ethiopia even one Ethnic Somalis want to govern themselves by region or province. Catalan that financed the spanish empire wants out Scotland that served and partly built the British empire wants out Belgians want to separate the two halves
  13. Chile Lebanon Iraq Ukraine France Spain Hong Kong 3-4 countries in central America And many more It does not look good... In some places its $100 a day to demonstrate or instigate riots and leave.
  14. A month is long time in Politics: Six months ago the Amxara: 1. Were threatening war on Tigray and to take some districts from Tigray 2. Were fighting the Oromo in the north to get rid of the Oromo autonomous region in Amxara Kilil 3. Were killing Agews, which they still do, because they wanted their own zone and autonomy 4. Were calling for take over of Addis Ababa which is "their" city and expelling Oromo mayor and others 5. Were fighting among themselves who will rule Ethiopia after they succeed in removing Oromo Tigray..etc Even Abtigis got so impressed by their empty talk he allied himself with them. Now cannot govern themselves and are calling Federal Government to intervene. That is why the saying "People who live in glass houses should not be first to throw stones" https://borkena.com/2019/10/17/amhara-region-calls-for-federal-govt-intervention/
  15. Abtigis never believed in Somali autonomy. Any Somali that does not believe autonomy is the most fundamental structure and road to lead to independence or respectability in Ethiopia cannot have a working plan. The only thing that unites all Kililka Somalis is total autonomy. Those for separation and independence see it as stepping stone and those who prefer to stay in Ethiopia see it as stepping stone for respectability and positions within Ethiopia. He is very shaky on this, there fore no solid base and no solid following. He relies for his survival in power on unitarists in Ethiopia. That for any Somali is not acceptable.
  16. Madoobe secret to success is that he completely changed the direction of the argument. No more people talking about warlords, Al-Shabab or anything. Madoobe became a symbol of Federalists versus unitary statists. And so far he won hands down. But when you see what is happening in Europe, spain, Ukraine, France, Britain....I am glad he won, since it avoids war and fighting. If Farmaajo had won, it sure was to start war in Jubaland, Kililka and few other places even the Mudugs.
  17. Che, The British proposal was not a tease, it was real. They put a lot of effort to it. It makes sense Geopolitically, economically, militarily for both the British and the Somali (greater Somalia proponents). Its just that there was too much mistrust and bad blood among Somalis and it failed. The fact that both France and Ethiopia were totally aginst the plan should tell you something. For the British would have been they maintain their influence using Somaliland and NFD from the two ends as spring board. They were closing the shop of colonies and opening door of influence and satellites.
  18. How come there is never talk about water between Somalia and Ethiopia, except when Abdi Illey was building micro dams for the nomads? Somalia has leverage of ports and should use this to have better deal about water. It is too late when Ethiopia builds infrastructure to control the water. In water politics there is something called "First use". That is why Turkey and Syria were in competition in building dams, versus Iraq who under Sadam was focused on dictatorship and oil. Now Iraq is in real trouble with water.
  19. Nile water has been offered by Egypt to Israel at almost every juncture whenever an Egyptian ruler is in trouble. Sissi is no exception. What is an exception is he is building it/or covering the building of it. 'If this water is going to the Sinai, then why have they not begun establishing water treatment plants?' - Mohamed Ali Egypt building secret tunnels to take water out of country, says Mohamed Ali Why haven't treatment facilities been built for mysterious infrastructure under Suez Canal if water is intended for Egypt? asks whistleblower https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/egypt-building-secret-tunnels-take-water-out-egypt-says-mohamed-ali
  20. Gooni, Life is making the best of what you have and keeping what is possible. The O is not going to sacrifice what he can do in three countries, with the dream of having one Somali state. Ethiopia will never do in Somalia what cannot be tolerated in Kililka. Abiy has apologized for the attempt and even gone as far as to say he did not order the failed intervention in Jubaland.
  21. Jawar is not as bad as some Ethiopians make him out to be. He is vengeful, and so is Abiy. The difference is Jawar has natural base both Ethnic and also by religion and Abiy has no reliable base Ethic wise and his base by religion, though very strong and rich is not indigenous. Both have Amxara mothers.
  22. Congradulations Abiy. He has now accomplished the third thing he wanted and can move on to fourth. He stated his mother had told him he will be 7th King of Ethiopia and he became one Less than a month after his election a group of Ethiopians collected 12,000 signatures for him candidate for Nobel price go it. His fourth one is get rid of federal system and lead a unitary state..we will see Again congra.
  23. Hopefully the Turkish can wrap their operation in the shortest time possible. The groups of Syrians that are with them now don't have much in common with each other. That was problem in Afrin as well. Syrian groups who generally get support from Turkish, fighting each other. The Kurdish will always be in the same situation with every empire or superpower. That is what the British and French empires did, and America cannot be any different. How ignorant can some American and European get, trying to threaten sanctions on Turkish. Erdogan has seen how sanctions benefited Russia. It made it the no.1 food sufficient and wheat exporter. Turkish have home based education, manufacturing research trade with Euroasia...Sanction may affect few months, but for people that are proud of their heritage no big deal. I hope America do not give the Turkish F-35. That will make them produce their own with some input from Russia. galbeedi, Turkish have long history. Even in their lowest days, they were always significant. They have fought against and made friendships with every power in the world. British, French, American, Russian, Austro Hungarian...you name it. They are now good friends with both Albanians and Serbs. Good friends with Persians. They both had turns colonizing each other. The Turkish feet are well planted on the ground. The Pashmerga are allies of Turkish since they know if you cannot live with your neighbor, you cannot live with anyone. Even the English and French fight all the time and sometimes become brothers. You are bit unfair on Assad, but that is to be expected.
  24. One can only be unfair when he/she has power that he/she owns and controls. Abiy was busy with his Nobel Price and Farmaajo has no way implementing all those threats. Now Farmaajo is done. The applause for Puntland tells more than just welcome for Dini. Its a message saying Jubaland will be Puntland 2.