I have very different take and grapevine news on it. Djibouti, Kenya and from Somalia Puntland have had enough of this childish games of the UAE boys excluding Bixi. There is some murmuring that either they will call for Somaliland referendum or Mugadishu has to negotiate. It has gone on for more than a generation and the same formulaes will not work. The majority of those in Somaliland have been born, growing and grown in nothing but Somaliland. Somaliland, Djibouti, Puntland and even Kililka also sees as a threat the use of Ethiopian forces in clan and sub clan affairs in Somalia. Its only a matter of time that other groups will declare Ethiopia an invader. Then all hell breaks loose. On top of that some in EU are wanting to totally get out of this mess they have neither interest or control. Italy is one of the countries complaining. Other than France and Britain, even Germany wants out. Its humiliating when UAE nomad through US can dictate in Somalia. Those are what I heard.

I just had posted for Che the other day telling him that the Ethiopian forces that are guarantee support for this adventure are already not happy being safeguard for units that are acting like bandits. Ethiopian forces have never gone to any place in Somalia or Kililka without a good contingent of Somalis ever in the past 30 years. Abiy has not purged yet the middle and lower commanders. Moodabe has more influence on Ethiopian forces than Farmaajo. That is why Moodabe has red lines but farmmajo is too weak to have red lies or principles.

Africa will not have originality. The last converts are the most noisy in any faith or culture. That is what Africans are trying to milk. Be more Evangelicals than the Americans who invented it. Be more Moslem than those who thought them the faith. Be more pro Israel than the Jewish themselves...etc. "We were in prayer for Ethiopia at Abiy place when we were informed that Abiy has been elected for Prime minister. We were praying for Ethiopia" Senator Inhofe of the USA. Chairman of Armed services/defense committee of US senate.

The biggest lesson for Somaliland from Taiwan starts in basic, fundamental strategy. That is in the general scheme of life recognition may not mean much. Taiwan has live in its 3rd generation now as a province of China on paper and formalities, but as little other China in reality. Even super power China could not do a thing abut it.

Remember that the Ethiopian troops protecting them supporting them as reserve are very mixed, but with good doze from Kililka. So far the news is that the Ethiopians are disappointed.

The right attitude. Pretty soon you will have Somali enclaves in America and in Canada to make equal to that of Djibouti, NFD..etc. Somali seem to be well integrated in Canada. The best things as well as some bad as well which is normal for any community to have some bad apples as well.

A piece of advice to those who want Somalia unity coast to coast, yet are dead set to hate Puntland for bringing Federalism. In your haste to curse and cuss Puntland you forget a small actually very big example of history that is given free of charge from neighbor Ethiopia. Eritreans fought 30 years to separate from Ethiopia. It looked so hopeless they agreed for Confederation. Among all the groups in Ethiopia Afar, Somali, Oromo, Sidama...liberation fronts one has a key to Eritrea. Tigray was the Key. Historically its the original Xabesha, Original Christian, Original Islam. Geostartegically is located between Ethiopia and Eritrea. Population wise it shares either blood or long common identity with 90% population in Eritrea. Once Tigray decided enough of war, let the Eritreans vote and if they decide to separate let them go. It was game over. The Amxara cried shouted cursed and cussed the most. Tigray answer was simple: If you Amxara think you are men, here is the gun go fight Eritrea and keep it by force in Ethiopia. Not a single person tried not even few friends group. Game over. See the uncanny similarity? Somali nationalists should bear gifts to Puntland, "pray" for Puntlands peace and prosperity and give Puntland even extra space in Somalia power structure. If Puntland gets fed up with the status quo and the statusquo becomes costly yet no return. The choice is clear. Not Somaliland, but Puntland will be forced to call for Somaliland referndum. Then it will be all over.

Getting his latest instructions like everybody else. America is changing the whole horn since Abiy has failed in the assignment. Abiy was supposed to have been regional go to person. He fumbled Djibouti, he fumbled Tigray and now ultimatedly very bigley way fumbled Oromo. The Amxara who are owners of the American influence are not happy. Trump group and Clinton group in the state department also have different preferences in Horn. Will see if Bixi says or does anything remotely related to Djibouti.

The Saudis have this little Gulf competition with UAE. Saudis not good with Somaliland, but UAE is close. UAE not good with Djibouti, but the Saudis close. Egypt follows the same as well. "Reconciled" with Djibouti and hate Somaliland since Somaliland refused to allow them a base for Yemen operations.

About 130 Greek soldiers with Patriot Missile defense systems have been deployed in Saudi Arabia to protect the Kingdom. The funny thing is Greece has both S-300 of Russian/Soviet and Patriot systems from USA. Guess the Russians want Saudis to buy S-400, thus not allowing the Greeks to deploy S-300 in Saudi Arabia. The price Greeks pay for this is New Greek USA agreement on Defense allowing America to use all Greek bases (Mediteranean), making another point of disagreement with Turkish. I hate countries that give up their sovereignity for temporary protection from an enemy that is not interested. Greeks should talk directly with Turkish about their own interest first not British, French or cypres. Its funny the Saudis being protected by Greeks.

That is what happens when people are driven by real or manufactured hate against a leader, group or party. You end up replacing them with uncknowns. Sudan is doing the same as Ethiopia where it has replaced a known "enemy" with uncknowns. Even Kililka is suffering from the same. Hate for Illey was only thing that matered. You can now hear some Kililka officials starting from Cagjar talking against Federalism, which would have been carreer ender for aany Somali 2 years ago. Alliance with Amxara would have been unheard of 2 years ago. Now Cagjar says it everyday and he is not even afraid of saying that and doing that in Kililka.

I wish every Somali enclave had at least one Waraabe. But then would have been dead already in other enclaves.

Game changer in deed. The software company is owned by ...after so many parent companies you get to Disney and others The name of the company is SHADOW Inc. The software is done by persons from Clinton for America The count of votes of few farmers and few students could not be counted until now. Buttegig declared himself winner shortly after closing The "Officially released count centrally" and the counties count is different

This case goes from bad to worst. The bad is that the Somali soldiers are really misbehaving. The worst is that they are protected/supported by an Ethiopian force SFG is doing irreparable damage. Clans can fight and later can even be allies, but if you use foreign forces for domestic dispute the enmity gets deeper.

Suldaanka, I agree. The 19th century redo. Its only natural for UK. Same/similar system of governance, language, built in infrastructure, no pressure from America to do anything..etc and most of all prevent or restrict Russia. UAE would be more than happy to pay UK expense, since both will always be on the same side. UAE also would free UK from the diplomatic niceties UK now do in Djibouti.

Who ever has followers who would give their life and not even for money has always the upper hand. Qoorqor seems to have so much endorsement from the civil war "elders"

Peter Buttigieg is a management consultant in Chicago and a fellow at the Truman National Security Project. Truman National Security Project says a lot. Its amazing in farm country "religious" Iowa to vote for an open Homosexual. Th magic of facebook, media and moneyed. One day tourist to other side of the planet is funny.

Expect a lot of false flag operations. All the forces that united to overthrow the Tigray are now turning on each other. Abiy is doing everything to scare the Amxara, by using false flag operations in name of Oromo. Its working. So many Amxara that wanted nothing short of his head month ago are now "preaching" Abiy is only one we have that can protect us from Oromo. Politics in Ethiopia is "extremely principled". And here in SOL we wonder why alliances of warlords keep changing.

Thanks. But everything has fundamentally changed. Ethiopia and Somalia have both dramatically changed since the days where most Somalis in the Horn thought that one day will be under one law, government and territory. I do not know a single Somali these days who thinks maybe one day Djibouti Somalis will join. People have long given up on NFD since President Barre signed the deal with Kenya in the middle of the war with Ethiopia. Kililka is the only enclave where there was any doubt/hope, but even that is dying down very fast. Kililka has half the total population of Somalis and has now a group that thinks Kililka if freed from Ethiopia should be a country on its own.

Russia To Build Military Base in Somaliland: NYT Report Click to see full-size image Russia is planning to establish a military base at the port of Berbera, Somaliland, according to unnamed US Department of Defense officials. Both China and the United States, with military bases in Djibouti, share the same coastline as the potential Russian port. The port is at the Gulf of Aden, in the self-proclaimed state within Somalia. Russia has also expressed interest in building a naval logistics center in Eritrea, but it is unclear how far along those negotiations are, according to other unnamed US officials. All of these were reported by the New York Times, in a piece focused on the worrisome expansion of Russian (and Chinese) interests in Africa. US Defense Department officials have analyzed Moscow’s move highlighting great power competition and expressing their concern by Russia’s growing influence in Africa. US also faces same competition from China as Washington struggles to establish its security and economic goals in Africa. This campaign for influence in Africa in playing a huge role even as US has hinted of withdrawing hundreds of its forces from West Africa with an intent of deploying them to counter threats from China and Russia closer to their borders. Essentially, the report is based on very little fact, apart from the very obvious spreading of Russian and Chinese influence in Africa. https://southfront.org/russia-to-build-military-base-in-somaliland-nyt-report/ A report by the NewAfrican magazine in December 2018 stated that Russia was in negotiation ns with Somaliland leaders for a naval base to support its warships and submarines to operate in the region and the busy shipping lanes carrying most of Europe’s goods. It was reported that the naval base would be staffed by 1,500 people and service destroyers, frigates and submarines and would be located outside Zeila city, in Somaliland, on the border with Djibouti – near the location of China’s first overseas base, which opened in 2017. The report further stated that Russia had proposed that it will recognize the breakaway Republic of Somaliland in return for being allowed to establish the base and ensure security in the breakaway country by training the Somaliland military. Russia previously had a military base in Somaliland but they were forced to exit by former Somali dictator Siad Barre. Russia has, for a while now, been attempting to reignite its Soviet-era relationships with African countries and has had relative success so far, with the Russia-Africa summit being a massive success, leading to billions of dollars in signed deals on various infrastructure projects, as well as military cooperation. China works in a somewhat similar manner, except that military cooperation agreements with African countries are much less common, and unlikely. Beijing provides long-term loans, and even released some African countries from their accrued debt, or at least part of it. Both China and Russia fall “victim” to frequent accusations by the US and Co. for wishing the exploit the African nations. That is mostly due to the success they have in cooperating with them so far, unlike the US, whose influence appears to be waning, at least in Northern and Western Africa.

He was probably one of the most moderate people, but very influential. Ethiopia is in trouble again. Abiy closest friends and advisors are all enemies of Oromo real movements.

At the very least your stance is of principle as well as what you think is feasible and possible at this time. That is to be respected, although I do not think one can stay neutral between Gulf and Turkish at this time, since the conflict is now in the open from Gulf to Libya and Sahel.

Erdogan was just in West Africa. Look what happened: France announces 600 additional troops in West Africa Reinforcement troops to bring number of French soldiers to 5,100, says French defense minister James Tasamba | 02.02.2020 KIGALI, Rwanda France announced Sunday plans to deploy an additional 600 troops in West Africa. In a statement, French Defense Minister Florence Parly said most of the reinforcements would be deployed on the borders between Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. "The president has taken the decision to increase the number of troops deployed in the Sahel-Saharan strip to about 5,100 soldiers, an increase of 600 soldiers," she said. "The reinforcements should allow us to increase the pressure against the ISS [Deash in the Greater Sahara] terrorist organization acting on behalf of Daesh. We will leave no space for those who want to destabilize the Sahel." Parly said Chad was expected to soon deploy an additional battalion to the G5 Sahel joint force in the border region. France currently maintains a 4,500-strong military force throughout West and Central Africa. Militants have launched repeated attacks against local troops in Mali and Niger that have extended into Burkina Faso. French President Emmanuel Macron recently met with the leaders of Mali, Burkina Faso, Chad, Niger and Mauritania to discuss security issues at a summit in Pau, France. The summit agreed on a new approach to unite forces in a "Coalition for the Sahel" to fight insurgents in the Sahel region. In a joint declaration, they reaffirmed their "determination to fight together against the terrorist groups." The Sahel region in West Africa is home to many terrorist groups, including al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and Daesh/ISIS.

What makes you so sure they are blunders? Is it because you would not do them if it was you? Is it because their detractors consider them blunders for the same reason. "I don't mind gassing some of these brown people" Sir Winston Churchill of the British Empire. Let me give you a quote from the great Jamal Abdelnasir the only Egyptian to rule Egypt in 2000 years on the exact statement you made above about American way of doing things this way: “The genius of you Americans is that you never make clear-cut stupid moves, only complicated stupid moves which make the rest of us wonder at the possibility that we might be missing something”. President Gamal Abdel Nasser

All looks great except no.3 Oil is still very dangerous business in the Horn of Africa. Look no further than Sudan what oil can do to a country. They give contract to ELF french and the english start arming another tribe. They give contract to Chinese and America brings sanctions and other troubles...never ending. You either have to give control of everything like Nigeria or you have to be strong like Israel before you go to oil and gas.