And more than 20 years wasted. Both Somaliland and Puntland should feel bad about these areas and come to some agreement.

Too much work to think and do water wells, micro dams, roads, schools, clinics..... Too difficult to govern 8 million people and especially Somali. The closest people to Somali that are difficult to govern are Tigray. Abitigis is already thinking and full time engaged in Ethiopia. Amxara have called him PM material and he is now 24 hours singing Amxara while cursing and cussing Illey.

How come a single area in the Horn of Africa does not have a Waraabe or someone close to his qualities? The rest of them are so predictable, whether in opposition or in government. Waraabe is an exceptional.

Don't you think Farmaajo has it coming? Don't forget Farmaajo went to Asmara while Asmara is holding Djiboutians in prison and also threatening the border. Even after returning from Asmara, Farmaajo did not go to Djibouti until the Ethiopians have made 3 trips and Eritrea contacted Somaliland and Djibouti. He completely embarassed every Somali.

Shide is probably the best Somali to send to Somaliland and Djibouti. Remember he negotiated and signed the Berbera deal with UAE and Somaliland. Some in SOL were making him to be Oromo at that time. With all his Amxara behind kissing Cagjar remains one pony official, just hate of Illey and everything Illey even the Autonomy. Abiy seems to understand the real power and influence rather than his face book amigos.

Duufaan, What takes you back to the year 1026 and also to 16 century? By some coincidence or incidence the world is full of Ceylacs. Some of them city states, some of them empires, but now small towns or villages. The British offered Ceylac to Ethiopia in the 1950s when they were doing housekeeping and also folding their empire orderly. Ethiopia rejected the offer and went for Eritrea. Look how much that decision has cost Ethiopia? a lost century. BTW I don't think Abiy knows Ceylac even exists. It was the most famous port at one time where Djibouti, Berbera, Assab, Mugadishu, Bassaso, Port Sudan....did not exist. Only Suakin was next to Ceylac.

Does anyone in the SOL Empire has any idea? The last interaction among Somalis in HoA was: Farmaajo asked Ghelleh to help in dealing with Bixi. Ghelleh asked Farmaajo two questions: 1. What is the agenda 2. What is the expected outcome. Farmaajo had no answers to these questions or he could not share them with Ghelleh. Ghelleh told Bixi that he could not invite two Somalis without an agenda and without a purpose. Case closed. Now Bixi informed Ghelleh the secrets and purpose of the whole exercise and Dini was called immediately. Does UAE or Abiy has some sinister plan that affects Puntland and Farmaajo is looking for Somaliland's help?

Farmaajo simply chickened out. Too scared. I don't blame him. Being in Mugadishu guarded by Uganda and helpless even against simple warlord can do that to you. Especially when the warlords go for weekends to Dubai and he has to go to Qatar. If he had a little spine, he would have been going every week to Ankara instead of Asmara. Qatar and Turkish know this already. Ask yourself a simple question. Ethiopia is now even at this shakey times a multiple more powerful than Somalia and a multiple more influential. Yet Ethiopia could not handle and could not manage to continue realtions with its second investor after China, that is Turkey. How could Farmaajo "play" Turkey/Qatar vs. UAE/Saudi/Egypt Even Sudan could not manage being very close to Turkey and dependent on Saudis. Even sending soldiers to Yemen did not save Bashir. His visit to Damascus was the last straw. The new ruler now already met Netanyahu and Sudan might establish relations with Israel to achieve what Arabs could not. Get off list of terror sponsoring countries. I was amused when most Somali expected Farmaajo to start war against UAE during the signing of the Berbera deal. Some SOLers were emotional wreck over it. Farmaajo just got rid of it very quickly. The security council at UN or IGAD, or AU or Arab League have all been forgotten now. We Horn people are that simpltons no red line no principle just raw emotions. The most disappointing part is when we have lessons for free from other Somalis. How do Djibouti, Somaliland, Puntland and Kililka survived without going to war for almost a generation? How come ONLF now made peace and friendship with Djibouti, Somaliland and Puntland after all the recriminations of the 2000s? These should have been free education. How could Somaliland maintained for 20 years simply business relations with both Meles and Ghelleh even thought Somaliland knew from the get go that these two men would be the last 2 leaders on earth that will give formal recognition to Somaliland?

Oodweyne, You have raised questions that are the basis for any decion maker, thus beyond me, but let me give it a go from what is known instead of attempting projections and assumptions which I will definitely fail. 1. For America anyone is an alternative to Djibouti. Eritrea, Sudan, Somaliland..etc the difference is only a degree. America can move to Yemen as well and if they choose that will be solving Yemen in less than 6 months. But regardless, America will not leave Djibouti for Chinese and even French and others. 2. If UAE plan is to use Berbera and Assab to kill Djibouti, then they are getting into uncharted territory. Eritrea does not want Assab more than Massawa. 90% of their population is near Massawa and half of Ethiopia even part of Sudan and South Sudan can use Massawa far more economically than Assab. For UAE Massawa will need atleast 15 Billion to make it port for 21st century level. Assab may need half of it. Fundamentally Berbera and Assab have the same problem. Political status and questions of uncertainty.In Eritrea its one old man and Somaliland all neighbors do not want it to be independent. For Somalia Puntland will follow. For Ethiopia Kililka will follow and for Djibouti its simply life threatening among brothers. Instability in Ethiopia is also very critical. Ethiopia has made 4 revolutions/drastic change in one century. The next one is around the corner. One draught season, one Ethnic conflict..away. 3. Abiy would have wanted to kill Djibouti, but will be pipe dream. He can only move Ethiopian business from Djibouti to Berbera. Businessmen would rather pay more in Djibouti rather than cheaper Assab. Never forget that Ethiopia has used Djibouti through 4 revolutions, through 2 world wars without a single failure. Imagine that in Africa. That is unique. Ethiopia used Djibouti even when it had Eritrea for 40 years. Some kind of connection there. 4. China has invested a lot on Djibouti Ethiopia "silk" road most of it is Ethiopian debt, since Ethiopia has to guarantee business for certain time for all that development to go on. The west has no money to invest, Arabs have no techology to give. China has both if they recover from this Coronavirus attack fairly OK. 5. Iran US war seems to be ON. America is increasing its force, Israel and Turkey are weakening Syria, Iraq and Lebanon. Egypt is trying to survive and suez is key. That can change everything in a heart bit, consequences of which I can't even understand let alone to guess what would happen to HoA and Yemen. Somaliland is on correct path. 1. 20% of Ethiopian business is more than enough for a decade. Just make that happen and do not throw away a guaranteed income looking for possibilities fraught with danger. Djibouti would be elated if Somaliland takes everything rather than Eritrea. That you can take to the bank. There may be some unhappy Somali businessmen, but this interest for Djibouti is cast in stone. This was determined and is well accepted from the Days of Meles. IOG never hesitated on this, whether in love or hate mode with Somaliland. Somaliland nneds to convert Farmaajo or who ever comes to the likes of Ahmed Shiek and Abdulahi Yusuf. Both understood and strictly followed the priciple of live and let live. Ghelleh had good influence on both. No war in that part of the Horn. Somaliland has to make sure there is no war around it. War is an easy way for foreigners to influence and also war is unpredictable. Abiy will not be successful to achieve the control that the likes of Meles had. If every Somali is to accept and speak truth, Somaliland is the only one that never gets to close to any dictator or "democracy" around. Both Djibouti and Ethiopian officials can testify to this. Even Illey found this out very early. Now you can see how Somaliland dealt better with British than others and why Puntland went to war with Italy. Both achieved the same result..an autonomous way of life, but both achieved it by different means and methods. Abiy maybe trying to get Somaliland and Eritrea together, but you and I know that is impossible. Afwerki would never ever accept Somaliland. Somaliland formally recognized or not, will never be enemy with Djibouti in your or my life time. Faarmajo has not much to offer to anybody. He spoiled the little thing he had and used it against Djibouti. He will pay a price for that and he is not going to know it or see it coming. Afwerki has very little to offer to anybody as well. No economy. He can offer some soldiers as its very cheap and easy to do in Africa. Never forget that: Eritrea is in the red sea only and not in the two critical gates directly. Somaliland is on the red sea and gulf to Indian ocean both open. If suez or Bab el Mendeb closed Eritrea is useless, Somaliland is not. That is very crucial. The reason the Tigray chose Djibouti/Somaliland/Puntland is that 1. They have forever enmity with Egypt 2. Since their economic future was to the east, better have something that Arabs cannot fully control and is open to east.

galbeedi, If Farmaajo with Abiy/Afwerki sponsorship does not start war with any region, for the re-election, that would be a big accomplishment. If he starts one then he will take Somalia a decade back and this time no SFG can be put together, since some regions will simply give up. 30 years is more than a generation. I would say, don't give up on him completely. He may leave peacefully. He is using Qatar money to do UAE work. That is very complicated since Arabs are not forgiving. He failed the Turkish plans fantastically. Worst than being anti-Turkish. Too scared of UAE. He cannot even say verbally against anything remotely anti-UAE while being sponsored by Abiy/Afwerki. How could anyone expect Farmaajo to do anything that disappoints UAE or Saudi? Impossible.

This has become legend or is so taken for truth from so much repetition. Nothing is further from Truth. Next to Djibouti Somaliland is actually the most Somali when it comes to Ethiopia. So much false information we carry. Example: USC folks are considered most anti-Ethiopia. I always laugh when I hear almost all people peddling this lie. Among the rebel organizations USC was so close to Mengistu, Ethiopia paid its own money, sent two officials to bring Aidiid from India to lead USC. The only purpose was to counter balance against Somaliland, since SSDF was suspect as Mengistu had information of their contacts with WSLF/ONLF and Tigray. Who called Ethiopia after 91 to Somalia. The person was General Morgan the group take your pick. Ethiopia did not vanguish Aidiid from SW since they were Mengistu people, vanguished them after they and their opponents burned food storage. That was the incident as to why Ethiopia evicted Aidiid and the other groups (no fighting left themselves). What did the warlords in Mugadishu do when ICU started. They set up anti-terrorist alliance. Who did they call first. Ethiopia. Meles was never close with Somaliland other than business and education for Somalilanders in Ethiopia. ONLF: Djibouti, Somaliland and Puntland told ONLF that they cannot use as base to fight against Ethiopia. Somaliland gave them 6 months. Djibouti and Puntland wanted ONLF to stop using them as base immediately. Anyone can confirm this with ONLF leadership of the time. etc.. The truth or facts show the opposite of the false belief most people have.

UAE has been in Eritrea for more than 2 years now. Asab is their base for the war in Yemen. They will not invest much unless they want to abandon Berbera or to be used for Somalia and limited volume for Ethiopia., since almost all Ethiopian business prefer 1. Djibouti 2. Berbera 3. Bassaso (but now there is already a concertium raising money to build another port in Puntland closer to Somaliland so as to use same roads for most part) Djibouti is guaranteed for minimum of 65% for decades. If Berbera takes 20% according to plan when the deal was signed. Eritrea can only compete for 15% out of which Sudan will have definitely a share, Kenya Puntland and rest of Somalia. Kismayu was high on the prospectus at one time around 2006. Whatch out Berbera. This is africa. Dictators and Arabs are best for snap decisions.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=256&v=nAgJAxkALyc&feature=emb_logo 1. One man a president can restore America 2. Make America great again 3. Lincoln would never have been elected since he never smiled and bad for television age 4. I don't want to run now, its very visious for persons like me who have ideas of their own and your own brain

Che, galbeedi, There is one fact that can show you the extent of Abiy power. If it was up to Abiy and his masters UAE/America he would have already shut down Djibouti and used Eritrea. Ethiopian businessmen said NO. Wanted the pipeline to go to Eritrea instead of Djibouti. Combination of China and some Ethiopian opposition said NO. I am sure Cagjar will not even complain, but Illey had made it clear that development in Somaliland ports roads dry port is very beneficiary to Kililka even for its autonomy and control of Ethiopia's access. Abiy probably went to UAE to beg the Arabs to pressure Bixi. The reason is not Somalia, but how to cut Somaliland Djibouti modus vivendi. They tried false flag conflict inorder to make the Ethiopia Djibouti roads less safe, did not succeed. So far Arabs, Afwerki, Abiy and America have nothing to show for the changes in Ethiopia other than Tigray are out of Addis Ababa, which a lot of the old fighters have been wanting, since a lot of Tigray were working for Ethiopia and not Tigray and can be kicked out anytime. Ethiopia is still under China trap so America did not gain much. Djibouti is still the same, so America did not achieve anything there against the Chinese..no color revolution, no tribal conflict.. UAE did not achieve much either. Has delayed some projects the Tigray and Ghelleh had, but not much succeess for UAE.

maakhiri1, The majority of the population in Somaliland is under 40 years old. 10% of this has seen civil war. 90% of this knows only Somaliland as country as region as anything. Look at Taiwan, Austria, Eritrea. Most Taiwanese cannot see other than Taiwan, even when the whole world including US tells them they are part of one China legally. No international recognition, no UN seat or membership. Sudan is already becoming that way South and North. What seems to be so easy for having one Ethnic, one faith, one culture can be most difficult since conflict among the same people or relatives or siblings is more bitter than among strangers.

galbeedi, You are right of carrot and stick in general it works everywhere and everytime. You are wrong in forgetting that farmaajo has no carrot nor stick. His stick is Ethiopia and that stick will never work in Somaliland, Jubaland and Puntland. His carrot is Arabs and that carrot will not be used on Somaliland or Puntland or Jubaland. Turkish stick will also not work in Somaliland, Puntland and Jubaland unless Farmaajo starts the stick from Mugadishu and expand outwards to the regions. Actually the Turkish plan was after Mugadishu to venture to Puntland for development and also military and security work to displace UAE and America.

galbeedi, You are well informed about Ethiopia, probably better than most Ethiopian diaspora, since you can observe as uninterested party while they are all emotional wreck. Few points: 1. Puntland. Puntland's best option is to have modus vivendi with Somaliland and close alliance with Ghelleh half secretly. As long as Afwerki is in the mix Puntland will be kept out. You may remember the personal exchange between Adde Muse and Afwerki in 2006, where they exchanged " niceties about the Italo Puntland war in the 1900s.Dictators can forget big issues when scared or jubilant, but personal humiliation is never forgiven or forgotten. 2. Kililka. Its is now very weak. The Oromo, Afar, Tigray are solid federalists. You would think that these 3 would be natural allies for a Somali who fought for 100 years for self determination. Yet, Cagjar allies and best friends are Amxara who are against federalism. Imagine that. The man has no red line and has no dignity and respect for his ancestors. 3. Djibouti. When ever you see any Somali leader avoiding, ignoring, hiding or outright insulting Djibouti like Farmaajo did in Asmara, you can be sure there is something to hide. Ghelleh has told Farmaajo to have clear agenda for talks and do the talks in Djibouti which is neutral and as elder can advise both sides. Farmaajo got scared of Abiy and Afwerki. Actually they are all running fast now before Ghelleh initiates a conference. 4. Farmaajo is now totally and completely under Abiy by his own choice. He slowed and frustrated the Turkish which by now should have had a standing army well trained and equiped. He failed. Too scared of UAE.He was afraid that UAE might bring down his government, which they can anytime since he is not going to fight. 5. Ethiopia has a fall back if Abiy fails. The Military. The Oromo is for federalism and is well inflitrated by Jawar, OFC, OLF..etc and the rest is other nationalities mostly pro federalism. The Army is still safe, since it takes a long time to infiltrate and the Tigray seem to have done a good job of Federalism and self government. Farmaajo forget him, just make sure he does not start regional conflicts. Puntland and Somaliland nothing meaningful will happen. UAE will only push if all Somalia will be under full control of Somaliland with full support of Puntland. Jubaland is now totally screwed. Even those of SFG are now angry at the role of Ethiopia. Ethiopia will never take any steps against Moodabe. You can take that to the bank. Cagjar will be hanged from tallest tree to start with. The Abiy and his Amxara are either stupid or ignorant. Any force the Tigray sent to Somalia was always with a big number of Somalis from Kililka. The Tigray know the behaviour of the Nomad. Abiy sent some more than half Oromo army, not knowing that the history between Oromo and Kililka. I am sure Farmaajo is also ignorant of this little, but very important secret.

New York Post https://nypost.com/2020/02/11/un-warns-of-major-shock-as-africa-locust-outbreak-spreads/ A medium-size swarm of locusts can eat the same amount of food as the entire population of Kenya, and in one day can eat the same amount of food as everybody here in the tri-state area, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and New York”

Turkey, UK, US asked to arrest senior UAE officials LONDON – Reuters Turkey, UK, US asked to arrest senior UAE officials Abu Dhabi's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan attends the International Defence Exhibition & Conference (IDEX) in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, on Feb. 17, 2019. (REUTERS File Photo) A British law firm filed requests on Feb. 11 with the authorities in Britain, the United States and Turkey to arrest senior officials from the United Arab Emirates on suspicion of carrying out war crimes and torture in Yemen. The complaints were filed by law firm Stoke White under the ‘universal jurisdiction’ principle that countries are obliged to investigate breaches of the Geneva Convention for war crimes wherever they may have been carried out. The firm filed the complaints to Britain’s Metropolitan police and the U.S. and Turkish justice ministries on behalf of Abdullah Suliman Abdullah Daubalah, a journalist, and Salah Muslem Salem, whose brother was killed in Yemen. Lawyers for the men said in the complaint that the UAE and its “mercenaries” were responsible for torture and war crimes against civilians in Yemen in 2015 and 2019. It named senior UAE political and military figures as suspects. A spokeswoman for the UAE declined immediate comment, as did a spokesman for London’s Metropolitan Police. There was no immediate reply to emails to the U.S. Justice Department and the Turkish embassy in London. “The suspects reside in the UAE and the United States, and are not resident in the U.K. or Turkey,” said Hakan Camuz, head of international law at Stoke White. “However, they travel to the U.K. regularly.” “It is requested that the police monitor their entry into the mentioned countries,” Camuz said. The UAE is a leading partner in a Saudi-led coalition that intervened in Yemen in March 2015 to restore ousted President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi’s government after it was toppled by the Houthi movement in late 2014. In July the UAE said it was withdrawing its troops from Yemen but remained part of the coalition. The counter-terrorism command of London’s Metropolitan police has a war crimes unit tasked with investigating alleged war crimes and torture. Britain has prosecuted foreigners for war crimes committed in other countries twice this century, under the principle of universal jurisdiction. Afghan national Faryadi Zardad was jailed for 20 years in 2005 for torture and hostage-taking. In 2016, a Nepalese colonel, Kumar Lama, was acquitted of torture charges in a trial at London’s Old Bailey criminal court.

How about another direction? Farmaajo begged Ghelleh to help by getting together with Abiy in some big shindig in Addis. Ghelleh smiled and asked one question: What is the agenda and what is the expected agreement/objective? Farmaajo went blank and that was the end of it. Ghelleh being smart always knew that he can beg or pressure or armtwist both Farmaajo and Bixi or either one of them as the agenda requires, but there need to be a good prospect for some result or agreement. Otherwise Ghelleh knows it will be for pointless childish propaganda. Confidentiality and secrecy is always mandatory. No face book postings with Ghelleh. But I still think it was all of them to get the updated and modified to do list from America. Some get it directly others through UAE others from Abiy ..etc

Quite the contrary. Its those contacts that finally culminated in the agreement in Djibouti. SFG not to obstruct or oppose any country or organization from directly working with Somaliland, if the activity is related to development. Now it looks fruitless, since Farmaajo and Co. have torn it and doing the opposite of the agreement.

I wish every Somali warlord, president, Shiek, had such red line. Don't fight your brother by being sub-servant to a foreigners. The animosity never goes away even if you win or lose.

Why is it that when America has finally become oil exporter, everybody is against oil? Imagine when the Russians finish their wells and go to Fracking like America with their vast lands full of oil and gas. Iranians just increased their oil reserve by about 30 percent more. The British are smart, since they have no available prospect after North sea, they want to move the world to something they excel. Anything electric with power generated from Nuclear which Canada has the most along with Russia in the Nuclear fuel. Environment is just another tool in the tool box of competition of empires and important countries..

Those old cowards around Abiy have done nothing, but assassinations and killings for last 40 years. They are Mengistu and Ginbot 7 people. OLF is like "faith" among Oromo. Even the new Republican guard of Abiy will not be immune to inflitration by Jawar and other Oromo parties.

You misunderstood. Mixed means Somali (Kililka), Oromo, Amxara...etc If Abiy follows as things were done last 30 years, any Ethiopian forces that are sent to Somalia should always have a good doze of Somalis from Kilika.