First casualty and the intended casualty is the GERD Everything else is just bonus for some and minus for others. OOdweyne, Remember the Tigray are least favoured by US. China is the reason and refusing to privatise banks and mobile. People suspect Meles was done for too close to China. The only reason Tigray stays is effectiveness and having better relation with most nationalities including Oromo. Oromo cannot fight Amhara. Oromo will be split if conflict with Amhara. Amhara has same problem as well with Agew that you do not see on facebook.

^Never considered that would be a factor. I always think that galbeedi is just so disappointed by what transpired in past decades and he thinks anything is better than current situation. I have told him that ONLF all these years have never worked a single day with OLF. galbeedi, Diredawa I hope you understand is one of the issues with ONLF. According to ONLF the Somali kilil should not accept Diredawa to be federal, because the Oromo will take it if that is the case.

The Somali and Afar will not accept Oromo right now. If anybody can come to power by creating chaos and death and destruction then you are opening door for many demands like Oromo language to be immediate. Some Oromo are saying hit while hot and demand Oromo language to be federal. The Amhara guy is from Wollo which is fairly multhi ethnic area. I have it on good reliable gossip that Either Illey or Siyum have warned the federal governemnt, either keep law and order or else.

Its more Somali issue the case of ONLF, remember it has always been going on. Problem was some individuals have little vendetta from past. WSLF, SDL late Dr. Abdulmajid and the attempt by Al-Ithad to assassinate him and others etc. This is best time for ONLF itself and what ever following it may have, very small by now, but the political value and impact of reconciliation is itself very moral boosting and confidence enhancing for all Somali kilil.

Che, Maybe he is galbeedi's friend or ally. I think that is most likely going to happen is Deputy becomes prime minster then in couple of months they may have a conference since now except for Amhara all have finished their conferences. ONLF I think will play very constructive role in reconciling the Somali kilil sincerely since the current situation is 1/2 ONLF is already in the kilil, but the rest half needs to realize and no time for face saving this or that. The Somali and Afar had meetings and are both in best situation for anything. Oromo is in worst shape because Addis Ababa is there close, but do not control. The Oromo will reconcile and quiet their people, that is what is being gossiped. Not sure wether its Illey or Haj Siyum (Afar) but the Oromo and Amhara have been warned either keep law and order or call federal government fast else will start process of winding down.

Why now? Consider how much oil companies played in the 90s. The oil is still in the ground, but British, French and american cmpanies still playing with TFGs and SFGs. The Gulf wanted that oil to stay in the ground and succeeded.

galbeedi, I am afraid to say to you that you are completely misreading the situation and reality. You are being driven by just getting rid of what is there. Why not listen to those that were released from prison. That will give you information from all sides. You have wrong understanding who has options and who doesn't who is better prepared and who is least prepared. You can have good feel from your Amhara friends as well. That will give you better picture of the situation. Some may have been given an ultimatum and they do not like it already. If it goes the way of Yugoslavia who is slovenia, who is bosnia, who is serbia needs to be considered. Its in this way you may have to try and consider ONLF.

Exactly maakihiri1, You are right any other time, but now. Can you imagine how many people from Kenya and Ethiopia can settle in the good farm lands and rivers by corrupting this or that. When you choose free movement, I think your point is the somali is better in business and can win, but not when you don't have any factories running any agricultural products to support home market.

That is wrong assessment. What did you expect the Somali to do in 1991 except secure a region and have local government and control. That also became difficult with some elements in ONLF. What did you expect the Somali to do in 2005 when there was post election crisis and Somali kilil still in bad shape and Somalia in worst shape. Not much. It would be too cruel to simply say lets have chaos and something will come out of it. The Somali is not a village or a district to think that way. Almost 7 million people you have to consider. There is also still draught and is only managed under emergency preparedness. The Somali kilil is actually settling nomads that have lost all goats, camels repeating draught. I think some of us are only looking at it like box A box B...its more complicated than that. Do you ever consider that the Somali kilil can join Djibouti lock stock and that maybe easiest and safest to do than be involved in conflicts with Somaliland, Somalia...

galbeedi, Does it mean you do not know the place of ONLF in Somali kilil and the problems it can be for the people? Actually do it now and do it fast is what I say. It is the best time to do it, for any eventuality that happens in Ethiopia. The Somali can take choices with the security of the people relatively safer. Everybody does things for themselves. No matter how much you love the Oromo, they do things for themselves, the Somali would only be an afterthought, when they think about import export. That comes after they have governemnt and order in their place first. The faster ONLF is in the better for all options from best to worst that can happen. You can rest assured there will be Somalis that would not accept ONLF. Which means the Somali will be alighed some with A others with B and fight each other. That should be avoided and best way is having no armed group anywhere outside the government. ONLF has more problems with Oromo than Illey. If you are interested in alliance with Oromo.

It has become a culture and those who cry a regime is corrupt are only fighting for their turn at the till. If you ask someone who cries against corruption to list which one is worst which one is least destructive, they would be like deer in headlights. Corruption is everywhere west east africa europe Israel...The most damging corruption in Africa is sending the money outside of the country. Politically it tells you there is no hope no development no tomorrow in this country therefore I take the money and put it where it has future. On the other hand I could tolerate a corrupt official who would obtain land and set a farm, buildings, factory etc At least he/she is risking what they stole. Simply accusing someone of corruption has become fashion and no proof needed just get some poor people from the street and give them guns to be army of one corrupt against another. If the corrupt is in their group is tolerated if he is from another group the sky is falling. It has become norm. It is bad only when somebody else does it. It has become relative. There is no absolute and basic right or wrong. Its sad.

And here is the other side of the argument: https://www.jigjigaherald.com/2018/02/12/onlf-what-is-the-point-in-talking-to-an-organization-that-is-in-total-shambles/ In that context, what is mystifying is the wisdom of trying to reach a deal with an organization that is almost politically nonexistent, has no combat capability and doesn’t control any territory not to mention its obsolete ideas that failed to get traction among the Somali masses no to mention the fact that it is an organizationally that is in total shambles.

In Ethiopia this has become more of a problem with non-Somali. Its a problem everywhere including the Habeshi now.

Never advocated for war with anyone against anyone between anyone. Maybe you might have seen posts for advocating for order. maakhiri1, And in worst case lets say I advocated a village of this against a village of that a region or tribe against that..Shouldn't you be pleased there is one less person advocating for peace?

I agree. I cannot understand why every warlord or diaspora politicians runs to Mogdishu the minte he gathers a few friends or family. The normal thing would be help build a school in your village, work and spend sometime in your neighborhood, build a base and itself will expand, but this road demands time and effort. Even in the west people get involved in seniors homes, veterans, community associations, muncipality politics, board of education and the likes. I would like to see a warlord or politician reconciling some villages that quarreled over water well, or help them dig another well so they don't fight over that one well. Open a school in his area etc.

The only hing that needs to stop is fighting. Everything else to your hearts content. That Illey and cousins thing is the lowest of the low. When one has a million things to be critical, using the worst kind shows weakness and incapacity to be positive replacement. Its easy to find worst than Illey, but the main thing should always be find someone better. This kind of trash politics is harmful for let alone to rebuild WSLF can't even build a sub-clan organization. You cannot have an organization of few friends to last a month talking about cousins. This is so low, I am shocked you find it sensible to quote or post.

Just a joke: Why not sell it to Ethiopia or Djibouti? All jokes aside expect some gang warfare with this. Part of the Somali Oromo border clashes was intended to remove Federal and Liyu from the area, who were making headways into the illegal trade of Khat. You add tax and supply is less, be prepared. It can corrupt the police quite easily.

Just in time when Oodweyne thought he is in the clear from competition for development money.

Everything else is expected and reasonable, but that is not and even if you keep it, please place it very bottom last of your list. As for MMA reasoning. I think MMA gives too much weight to Tigray both good and bad. Good to be careful and reasoning, bad to think there is Tigray under every nomad's tree shed. MMA, Please read some Ethiopian sites lately and see what some "top analysts" are saying about Tigray preparing themselves and their friends for separation if chaos ensues. That is really extreme debilitation.

Conditions and situations create/raise men. He is a product of the Somali situation in Ethiopia at a cross road. It was bound to happen someone will lead in one and the other in the other forked road. Hopefully time will come soon as you said, where Illey will be thanked for taking the risk and also criticized for his tactics, but fairly and objectively. As said its the condition that brought him and millions have agreed with him. No fake number throwing, but majority at this time agree with him. In such a big population 7 million/6.3 from central statistics, and every clan and subclan of Somali, you are bound to have differences.

Why put down some region to relatively look better, why not also look those who are better and say I am doing worst. If you had government and rebels fighting in your territory, which you had, If you had war lords fighting in your neighborhood, which you didn't If you had foreigners fighting in your backyard Ethiopians and Shabab which you didn't If you had fallen on hard times either you cannot farm or herd since its war zone or draught If you had foreign army stationed and keeping guard for everything around you Its a combination of so many things, coincidences or plans outside your control or capacity. That is what Inventing and Building the Liyu in Somali kilil achieved, but Bay and Bakool does not have leaders or conditions for that kind of program.

maakhiri1, How about the Somali?

MMA on the lighter side: TESFAYE is Amhara TESFAY is Tigray

Why is Puntland in everybody's cross hairs? Somaliland, SFG, Shabab everyone has something to pressure, to bend, to hit Puntland. Unti-federalism Somali's also have a bone on Puntland. This by the way is also one of the ways to try and show Puntland in bad light. Americans use this and travel warnings as a tool.

Suldaanka, There is only one nightmare in this case. That is people fighting for something that is not timely and not a priority. Both either making Somali Kilil an independent country or breaking from Ethiopia and joining it to Somalia. People should not die, fight and self destruct for either at this time. Qalbi-Dhagax issue is federal in Ethiopia and I don't think will be a problem for any of them Ethiopia or Somalia.