The problem now is not construction of GERD that is done, few corners left and Egypt will not stop it, but if Egypt succeeds in chaos, the next PM can agree to fill the dam in 7 years which means 7 years 4.8 billion just waiting sitting there. The main problem now is filling it. That is when the Nile maybe reduced temporarily. Sudan has said fill it as fast as possible. If Ethiopia has its way it will fill enough to start generatin in 2 years and the complete fill in 3 years. Example: Mengistu from Zimbabwe (through his daughter since he is not allowed to involve in anything about Ethiopia) issued a statement and video stating that "GERD is Weyannie conspiracy to start war with Egypt" Weyannie answer was " We are not hurting Egypt, no reason for war. We are also not cowards like you and see our people starve. The Egyptians also know us as much as you do with your 1/2 million army in north" Mengistu would be ready to fill the dam in 10 years as long as Egypt helps him overthrow Weyannie. And children of mengistu are many and would not hesitate.

Big time. They scared the Amhara since the Amhara supported them, but Amhara with maybe 5 conflicting organizations was not ready to challenge, and if the Oromo by some accident take it, Amhara can kiss goodbye to everything including language for next century. They scared the Somali and Afar people supposed to be closest to them, by stating that since 40 million they should take proportional places in government, but they forgot that 2 million Afar has probably done more than the Oromo ever did for Ethiopia. And by Oromo calculation there will not be a single Afar in government. They used brutal methods trying to intimidate everybody including killing people for no reason other than being non Oromo. What they do not take into consideration is the Somali for example has had war in his lands for 100 years non stop, against this or that foreigner and sometimes each other. Survived poor very poor of course in material wealth, but still speaks his language, has the Din he had when all these century of troubles started..etc that builds character and strength resilience, staying power.

The second agreement emperor minelik signed was with the British empire 1892: 1. Not to do any work on Nile 2. Prevent any ethiopian king or governor doing any work on Nile The Egyptians filed this document at UN in 1945 the day they became member. Meles invalidated it since Menelik had no crown authority to do that without concurrence of the king of Gojjam where Tana and Nile are. They had an argument with Mubarek, that is when Mubarek threatened a project called Tana Beles 430MW and Meles told him come and stop it.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/africa/egypt-accepts-delay-of-ethiopia-dam-meeting-as-protests-rage/2018/02/18/8202ed66-1492-11e8-930c-45838ad0d77a_story.html?utm_term=.570461bd86f9 Egypt cannot comprehend why the DAM construction is going 24/7, but meeting cannot. Egyptians wanted World Bank mediation NO Egyptians wanted Sudan excluded NO Egyptians wanted French companies analysis speed up NO And now no meeting either. galbeedi, Egypt and your Oromo have to thumb on desk, you just have been outplayed for now, tomorrow is another day. Tallamook, Here we go. Why Ethiopians not in a hurry for PM. Possibility of PM returning is open. Parliament might reject his resignation. Wouldn't that be funny joke on Egyptians. The Tigray are 17 Egypt 0 in last 150 years. Amhara best friends of Egypt in a sandwitch not to be eaten. Oromo new client ddeer in headlights

There is an incident in Ethiopia that happened 1916 very sad for the people but politically very funny Iyasu was supposed to be the emperor after menilik (he is menelik's grandson by mother) He let his intensions of liberating from Zeila to Massawa Eritrea known met with respective clans among Somali, Afar said they are ready and then went north and was raising big army. Contacted Germany and Turkey. Started this work 1913 when Europeans were in mess and only war can solve their economic crisis. The Italian, British, French ambassadors met Shiwa Amhara nobles for a week every evening and came up with a fake news for the north. Iyasu has converted to Islam, all his time is spent with Somalis, Afar, Wollo (his home kingdom) and Tigray East. The orthodox pope excommunicated him and was end of Iyasu. The pope was supposed to ask Iyasu in person, confess him and other confirmation. Did not bother. Once excomunicated for north that is end of you. When they found out fake news from him was too late the Shiwa Amhara have moved on. He escaped from prison went to Afar ex-sultan and being afraid took him to Tigray to add more animosity to Haileslassie. Spent a year there and when no support or arms can be found handed to Haileslassie. I am sure there are meetings with Chinese, mainly American, British also important French and Italians. Considering the situation whole area its 1900 all over again. But I don't think radical surgery will happen just small shuffling.

The Chances for an Oromo PM are not looking good. At least not short term unless the Americans insist. The Amhara who have most influence in DC are against both the Oromo and Ginbot 7 which are both favoured by America. State department which is the only one against EPRDF from long time. Amhara for most part is either themselves or weak very weak but not dead Tigray lol As long as there is no problem in the Capital city itself, Tigray has enough confidence in the rest. The Oromo do not want the capital city to take limelight, they have least influence. The "game" continues until a player is carried out on stretcher or red carded from the teams. Food self sufficiency should be primary objective for Somali and Afar peoples. You cannot accomplish any other thing when every 2-3 years you facing draught dead goats and camels. This problem is becoming too dangerous for survival let alone development. Its achievable with little help from NGOs and governments. Requires some cultural shift which is not against the culture, heritage, Din of the people.

We can accept as true interest: America wants Ethiopia to be democratic America wants loss of life and property avided America wants regime change through colour or violence America wants the chinese road project dismantled etc But which one is interest no.1, 2, 3...that is where the rubber meets the road The statement is just maybe an AI can produce covers all grounds diplomatic Personalities: Trump would be more EPRDF (including family ties Daughter and Son have some connections) than Clinton side (had lot problems with EPRDF) Republicans are more EPRDF than Democrats (Among democrats Jewish more EPRDF and particularly Tigray) Pentagon of course EPRDF State Department 100% opposition and regime change Soros 100% opposition and regime change Corporations and oligarchs are more leaning EPRDF

lol Addis means maybe not Tigray The latest is everyone is taking a break, a breather The Oromo now are hoping that American opposition to state of Emergency maybe a window that Tigray and America are at odds. The worst thing one can do in such a situation is not understanding the players interests and simply following pronouncements and facebook postings. The Egyptians are throwing every thing even the kitchen sink to this one, but they are at disadvantage. Eritrea, Sudan, Somalis almost all are not cooperating. They all sense the danger to themselves. There is also deep discussion among Oromo that if things go out of contol and they become a country by default, what next. All their neighbors do not have long lasting or deep good relations in past. It takes time and hard work to establish new. Becareful what you wish for applies here to everyone. You might get it. Sometimes by what looks like accidentally even though no accident in politics. Amhara is regional exactly like the kingdoms that existed 19-20th century. It still has influence on its actions, groups organizations. The strongest organizations are the old kingdom named and associated that way. Believe it or not, the king makers are Somali, Afar, Sidama, Welayta who ever gets support of these will make it through in the short term even against some big powers wishes. In the long term of course the big powers outside win. It has now become very common for aspiring politicians to mention Somali Afar Welayta just out of the blue. This was not done before, its very recent.

ROME (Thomson Reuters Foundation) - A major project to restore land in Ethiopia’s Tigray Region to boost millions of people’s ability to grow food won gold on Tuesday in a U.N.-backed award for the world’s best policies to combat desertification and improve fertility of drylands. Tigray’s drylands, home to more than 4.3 million people, are being restored on a massive scale, said the World Future Council, a foundation which organized the award together with the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD). The Tigray government has mobilized villagers to volunteer 20 days a year to build terraces, irrigation projects, build stone walls on mountains and hillsides, and other projects. BTW it has started in Somali kilil. A group of some 200 Somalis visited the area 2 years ago. UNDP is financing in Somali kilil to settle nomads which have lost all their wealth by repeating draught.

And most importantly when you are busy fighting at the core. Moyale was flashpoint between ONLF and OLF. OLF wants to use it as entry point, but the Ethiopians leapfrogged them and went to Nairobi and pick them up from there. They acquescence some Kenya police and pick OLF from back. Moyale is too far from Jigjiga, too far from Mogadishu too far from anywhere. The Somali will come back if trade between Kenya Ethiopia uses this place. If Kismayu recovers and joins the port competition for Ethiopia then Moyale may be even forgotten totally.

lol We can still use it, reember I am Tigray, our books keep information for use for coming generations This is the sign of having that heritage of Somali chit chat under the tree shed sharing coffee and nomads exchanging info and inquiring mind for all possible happenstances. Its good. Let me give you another tip. Almost all cities in Oromo cuntry were founded by Habeshi. Three big cities including Jima have Amharic only speaking populations between 60-80%. They are angry at Tigray for allowing the Oromo to force these people under Oromo government that works only in Oromo language. These people have no government employees from them.

So many Orwellian names of centers, societies, institutes wow dizzying. Their names have nothing to do with how they are financed and their activities. now development institute is latest fad. There needs to be a SOL Peace institute

Not really. Remember that Amhara was considered ruling and upper class Traders are usually people that have lesser place in the royalty. Amhara were mostly beaurocracy and administrators of most districts etc. The Business folks are enterprising Gurage The Amhara was mostly shaken up during Derg where everything Haileslassie was hunted and destroyed Modern businesses of course the Amhara has recovered to some degree, there is sizable Oromo as well since most involved with Derg and stayed with new regime as well. Tigray also is increasing but had very low during Haileslassie and Derg almost zero therefore is new. The 2 largest corps or oligarchs are Al Amoudi and EFFORT (started with money TPLF had). I dont know which one is bigger, but both have lion's share in Ethiopia.

galbeedi, You may have not heard Tigray 30 years ago either. The Amhara kilil leadership is being shaken up right now. Then you will hear and know what the Agew is. You should have heard about them. Kush people, but I don't blame you since they are not diaspora or internet people. An Amhara cannot make any move without considering the Agew. We say Amhara since Minelik, but almost all minelik army was Oromo. You must have some personal vendetta from past. You cannot be so uncompromisingly so dedicated to something which to say the least most Somalis outside Ethiopia question merits of what you are advocating. If you are a Somali nationalist to join all Somalis in one country, this is costly way trying to do something that kind. The easiest, most economical, humaine way is let the Somali be important in all these countries and have common market or even confederation like Ghele proposed and there you have it greatest Somali not greater Somalia.

Holac, Excellent question. There is already enough on TV, sites, youtube sampling of how the residents feel. There is more than 100 embassies and consulates Majority of people are Amharic speakers Ethiopians are very poor on languages especially center and south. North is better most ethnics have interaction and intertwining even ones who "hate" eachother. Addis Ababa in this chaos is very very quiet. They do not want to offend anyone. They have uneasy relation to Oromo. all encircled in Oromia. The Amhara kilil is far away. All others including Tigray is small. Let me tell you what the Tigray did in 1991 About 13 officials of Derg entered Italian embassy. Tigray just sarounded but never went in. These are fighters from farmer nomad upbringing but until today all 13 are there few dead, but still are in there. Recently some people asked for an Agew colonel who was foreign minister to be allowed to die with his family at home. I don't know what happened. This is pure discipline seeing but not touching a Derg in front of you recognizing embassy property rules. Addis is so big and haphazard its like different countries. There is just too many people, but areas of concentration by Ethic is known no matter how people tell you otherwise. The Oromo are demanding that Addis be in their kilil The argument BTW will affect Dirdawa. Best thing to do would be give Dirdawa to Somali kilil, split Addis in two and make one part federal/international and the other Oromia. But i don't think that is doeable now. At the moment if you are in Addis i think statusqo is safe bet.

Let me tell you what I read in one website mereja and old name ethiopian review - is one of the oldest sites which is 100% anti Tigray to the extent it produced pictures from other countries dead and used as ethiopian. The topic was : TPLF has decided Lema to be PM They went through his background and also that he has worked along with the foreign minister in police and intelligence, so generally what the content is that TPLF will not bring somebody they do not know. The objective and the way participans highlighted was the funniest They said Somali will be unhappy and if Somali starts trouble TPLF will not take measures so Ethiopia will be gone. These people have never been concerned for Somali, yet now since they dod not want the Oromo to be in and do not want to say Amhara would rather choose the way it is rather than Oromo take over, they used the Somali. It was funny and so crude and obvious. If it was anybody else south or Hareri or Afar or Tigray ..that said it, you can at least say maybe they understand, but these folks just make you think how they are desperate between the one they hate and the other they fear and hate.

That is very true. Compromise comes from knowing all the opetions. If we are one way people its very difficult and impossible t find compromise. If somebody moves by figuring out all available options, then can chose depending the situation. Almost all Ethiopians are talking in terms of Tigray or Oromo. All the other people are off the map. Its sad and funny. They both forget that a small number Ethnic or group can throw a wrench and the whole thing can change. Mengistu was uncknown quantity yet he did great damage killing kings, generals ministers like ordinary defenceless.

wow Is that how you understood or that is what you are wishing to see. I just stated "the world is in flux maybe is change of empires" like the chinese replacing America like Turks Persians etc becoming powers regions or Israel achieving Nile to Euphrates etc. As far as Ethiopia is concerned, you can rest assured that it will stay the way it is, since more people, more powers, more money..more of everything wants it that way. If the unthinkable happens, the once who think will control will be first ones to go. You and I can wish the ordinary people to be safe, those inolved know what they are getting into. Your celebration will have to wait.

Agreed. Not many people have written or seen the oil companies role in 1991 Somalia. It is either federalism or dintegration and federalism was better choice. It has worked in Canada after a century now separation of the french is at its lowest. Being a poor and backward country is main difference, but core problem and solutions are same. The problem comes if Quebec wants Ontario to speak French. The whole world is in flux anyway. Maybe is time for empires changing. The only thing one can do is stay as safe as possible and do not get into trouble either something you have no strategic interest or risk more than the return.

Don't get me wrong. One cannot and should not be pinning hope on somebody else, but the Agew are on the ground. If nubers meant something the Somali would not have been the one who contineously in one form or another fought against domination, colonialism by anybody for more than 100 years. The proportion of Oromo and Somali in Ethiopia was always the same. Since he did that the Somali does not have material wealth now, but have not lost his language, his culture, religion and generally speaking identity. If somebody tells you is fighting a corrupt, but not the root or system that allows corruption, then simply is telling you that I want to replace the corrupt to have my turn. If the Oromo tells you there is Tigray domination and since Oromo is bigger in number I should dominate, you need to learn my language. You are a Somali- what do you say? Lets get rid the system of domination whether you have 40 million or 4 million. That is the choice.

I do not think so. Too many nationalities have interest in keeping it. And some are most organized that can act if need be. Are quit for now, but each have red lines. Even Djibouti, Eritrea, Sudan, Somalia at this time have interest in keeping it.

Che, The best source for Amhara kilil politics is the diaspora. Especially in DC and London they are the most from king Haileslassie to Mengistu and to american lottery diversity visa. 1. Addis Abeba now is the most federal. Reason they do not want to be taken over by Oromo kilil 2. The Agew on the ground are pissed that some Amhara groups are supporting Oromo simply to overthrow the government. This fight will only show in ANDM, not in diaspora since the Agew are not represented in Diaspora, very few websites 3. The Oromo declaring to make their language federal means the Amhara will lose advantage in beaurocracy in many areas. The Amhara is the least bilingual or multilingual for obvious reasons. 4. The Amhara and Oromo diaspora are accusing each other. Somebody has to do the messy and dirty work on the ground. You never heard anything in the epicenter of Amhara that is Shiwa. The Amhara was expecting the Oromo to do the leg work and then join at the end and lead. They both now are afraid of "I do not do it for you" You will not see it on internet, but the Agew is most influential group in Amhara kilil. Reason since were most marginalized they were the ones fought the most in the past.

Dahireeto, galbeedi is fighting without rules or considerations of anything right or wrong, no boundaries. What he knowingly ignoring is that Dirdawa was made federal because the Somali did not want to go to war at that time. If it stays federal then even Djibouti can help influence the case, which they are doing.

Competition over resources. The persons talking are all from outside the area. Even Ginbot 7 had told them that its something you can ask later since its complicated. What the Amhara (Which I should say in few towns, but mostly diaspora) are saying is EPRDF should restore the 14 provinces from king Haileslassie and Derg times. Tigray is telling them, that is a no no ethnic people to the extent possible who live in contigeous area will have their region. Period and since Welqayit people are Tigrigna speakers as verified by Derg (which the Amhara do not deny) and every census taken they will be in Tigray. The Amhara just wanted chaos by any means. The closest place they could do was Gonder and now Gonder is in regret for allowing these groups last year. No more will you hear such a thing again. The Agew which are closest to this area are now to be autonomous and that is last nail in that coufin of fake box. The Agew are between Gonder city and Tigray. Once the Agew take over and administer the area its all closed. Eritrea has more possible supporters and reserve connection than anyone else. Since a big part of the population is same tribe as the one in Eritrea.

"In order to divert the attention and create ethnic civil war, the Tigray intelligence in coordination with leader of the Somali Zione Cabdi Illey had created a killing squad that raided villagers in the middle of the night. " galbeedi, I am saddened to see that you are capable of promoting and pushing this low level hate propaganda. But to Jawar and Yourself since you seem to be an enthusiastic supporter, here is what I say: This is the cheapest, dirtiest and most crude propaganda ever used. But I understand is most dangerous. If you think this shortcut will get you somewhere, it will be cut short and you will live with the consequences of it rather than your target. You do not have conscience for using any tool in your quest to dominate others. And now you want to involve Somalia, because you run out of steam even using most crude politics. It is not a laughing matter, but the crude and inhumaine methods exposed you to what you are. No low point below which you would not fall. There is no bottom red line you would not cross in any manner. There is no religion you respect its tenets. You are prepared to say anything do anything without rules of human beings. I am not complaining, you choose your methods, just telling you what you are. Unlike you the people you are targeting have moral principles and red lines they would not cross. They choose tools they use.