Yes. Mostly has to do with it. You can see Oodweyne never missing to mention Puntland, even though Puntland is not involved. Oodweyne is looking too far ahead, way too far unnecessarily.

It just droped on its own. If somebody tells me Farmaajo failed to kick Ethiopians out of baidoa, my first question is who told you that Farmaajo wanted to do that in the first place? This is new tact that comes out of George Soros Universities. Label somebody with failing to do something. It doesn't matter even if they want the opposite. Just show he/she failed and is not capable.

Aren't you making a hill out of a mole hole. The man knows what he is doing. He has been through this many rounds. It is not the port of Djibouti BTW you know that. If Djibouti will be broke, then you will never see any DP. That you can be sure of. A man who is capable of arm twisting Mogadishu, Addis Ababa and Asmara by one arm or finger cannot be intimidated.

That is unusual from you. Looks like you are making statements and if you are a postlord (compared to warlord) here making decree. You make your own statement - The Tigray want everybody to be against Oromo You make next stateent - Not everybody is aginst Oromo You make next statement - Therefore the Tigray failed and are out Then next yu go to religion and do the same. Who is most influential among the Tigray, Who is most powerful among the Tigray...You seem to have no clue I am afraid. You can blame and accuse Tigray of everything under the sun, but not religion. This you can get from their opponents not only friends. That never works for any side or group. The christians cannot be more catholic than the pope. Moslems cannot be more Islam (accepting Islam) more than Negash. Its that simple. What is the interest of Tigray?

This needs to be encouraged. Pretty soon you can have a Somali running the show. These regimes hire from Bangladish, west frica etc so that there would not be a coup or foreign influence, but still these soldiers can take their families get few more work permits for relatives and soon multiplies.

They have done more in 25 years in this regard than the 1000 years past. Ethiopia in the last 100 years was cannot have Moslem Emperor, cannot have Moslem PM, cannot have Moslem commander, cannot have Moslem Police chief, justice..etc All those have been broken in last 25 years except PM.

Oodweyne, Ghuelleh mediating between Eritrea and Ethiopia. lol Or Ghuelleh working hard on first TFG, but when not happy with results, telling President Abulkassim to visit Cairo first, knowing full well that when he goes to Mogadishu his government will be dead on arrival.

So perfect choice of words to describe Djibouti. If the chapel here did not know that you are in a highly consequential competition, one would think these two Somalis are going to war. But then again, so is Singapore. So is Imirates, so is Qatar. I think Ghuelleh should get rid of democracy, make himself emperor, get two more wives one from other parts of Ethiopia, One from Eritrea have some more children. What is the use of democracy in Djibouti and democracy is going out of fashion anyway. On the one hand the competition between Djibouti and Somaliland is same as that between Britain and France. The British were more snicky, they called Italy and told them to take from Djibouti to Sudan (Eritrea). The British did not need more since they have cvered both sides of the gate, but just in case encouraged Italy taking Somalia. What is Somaliland going to do about Puntland and Eritrea? As you said Ghuelleh has the experience, ambition and tools at his disposal or easy reach to throw monkey wrench. Maybe Kilil 5 should make money from both of you. Here is an idea. How about Somali Kilil collect protection money from both of you and when either of you needs some roughing up there is ready enforcer and trouble maker? Remember Ghuelleh has big screw he can tighten on Ethiopia, but they also have few screws that if they tighten would squish him out of the game. The one thing I like is this competition is for development, for moving forward, for something better. Unlike the competition somewhere where its how to destroy the other or bald men fighting for a comb. This is going to be good. I bet you mafia boss brother Ghuelleh has you on his list for sure.

IMPORTANT CORRECTION Dr. Abiy Ahmed is Protestant not Moslem. Not sure if he is Pente I wonder why this information was hidden everywhere. Hailemariam Desalegn was also Protestant Pente This is uncomfrortable for Moslems and Orthodox Christians more than 80% of Ethiopians. . Pente to Protestants is as Wahabi to Moslems. There is about 10 million Oromo Protestants in Ethiopia.

Oodweyne, Aren't all states what you described of Ghuelleh? He did not provoke Eritrea. He did not put Eritrea in the hole. Eritrea did it all by itself. He actually tried to reconcile Eritrea and Ethiopia lol But to some degree was genuine, he did not want wars in the neighborhoud, the Afar being in Djibouti, Ethiopia and Eritrea is also something he cannot ignore. I am sure that is his always his talk with Farmaajo and Bixi. No war around here. As long as you folks do it similar way, its all good and fine. Do it with outsmarting each other, just do not kill the cow that is location. You have location which is gift in this case and a curse for others like Yemen.

I think him and Jawar are from different regions. Jawar would go out of his way anything against Somali, Abiy Ahmed would not. Abiy is suspicious and red lines with Amhara. Jawar comes from areas bordering Somalis and also OLF could not get anything going in through Somalia except ICU days. Illey and Ghele are most hated Somali for the likes of OLF or Jawar.

Oodweyne, It is more than that. There has been conflict on the "Road and Belt" for past 10 years. Americans want it interrupted and used for their or their client states use. Eritrea was expected to intercept and dismantle this. Ghele 1 Isayas 0 America tried to enter Djibouti through Egypt (nothing against Ethiopia), Saudi Arabia (cannot use in Yemen) and dismantle Ghele. Ghele 1 Saudi 0 The DP World cannot have competing port within such and such Zeila and Assab are completely and specifically out. Ethiopia has to guarantee 80% of its business. This is always in effect unless Ethiopia owns a port, like Ethiopia becoming federated with Eritrea or others. Remember Ghele proposed confederation with Ethiopia out of the blue like Sadat did to Israel. Somaliands share offer to Ethiopia may have something to do with this. What is Somaliland offering to DP and the tretcherous Egyptians? Remember competition should always be peaceful and commercial. If Somaliland tries anything else with the American who is sqeezing Ethiopia and Djibouti and Egyptians get service without paying a penny or a soldier piggybacking DP world and USA. I would hate to be Somaliland. Everything else is commercial, location, facility advantages which is fair and fine. Don't be like Eritrea wishing your brother's ill for you to win. Arabs are just moneyed nomads trying to behave like superpowers. Yemen also has big effect in short term. Eritrea was more than happy to see Yemen suffer for few million dollars. The Ethiopians would starve rather than do something like that. Ghele was noble when it came to Yemen. Dollar rain from Saudis was NO. ITs also a factor that Ghele is Ethiopian, Djiboutian and of course Somali. The Ethiopians have done good by him when France wanted him out even basing their army when he needed. Remeber there was court case in France from the days Ghele was chief of security for his uncle? Manufactured of course.

Technically its the smoothest road, he is member of parliament. Lema also has a lot of ambition and went wrong way about it. He thought pleasing the Amhara would make him king, but wrong way thinking the Somali with less population cannot affect. So many firsts for this government. First Moslem PM. I can see the swearing and cussing at Weyannie on many web sites. Some people will start gossip that he has Tigray grandmother or great great great grandfather. lol This will be fun. Even the Amharized Oromo will be liived, gnashing of the teeth. I thing Tigray will be laughing at the whole backwardness and stupidity about religion. Its amazing Tigray has the lowest percentage of Moslems, yet most visible in all fields.

Che, Its good to be skeptical, but too much doubt is not good either. The Kilil is bigger than many countries. Has 7 million people, but those arrested by ONLF connection or captured in the field are knowwn. Not all ONLF can be released either. You do not want to have revenge killings, so is like protective custody but better way to stop revenge. MMA, He was captured durng ICU days. He was not sent to Mogadishu during the recent exchange, which means he is in special prison for persons captured in Kenya, Somalia, Sudan, Yemen etc. Canada had tried to help, but the guy may have made the trip as Eritrean, the Republic, or Kenyan. There was something difficult for the Canadian rep.

I will give you instead another information that would make you think. About 3 years ago the Afar restored the sultanate. They selected the son of the sultan of the last sultanate among the Afar. He is a figure head, but so are all quens and kings these days. The sultan was leader of an organization called ALF Afar liberation Front. That part of Afar closest to Somali region was in Wollo province. Half of Afar was in tigray province and the organization fighting there was called Weyannie Afar Tigray. Both united and established Afar kilil by gathering their people and lands from 4 provinces. The new organization is called APDO same as the Somali kilil where WSLF, SDL and others united and made SPDP. The restoration of the sultanate is very tricky, but it plays a big role since most of government is from those that wree in Tigray province. It also creates an institution that can grow in social, cultural areas and developing unity within the kilil. Its not easy to put together people from 4 different provinces. Some provinces they were treated badly and in others they were full participant and respected. On top of that just like the Somali they have clans and subclans. Again what happens in Djibouti and Eritrea has big impact on them. Its times like this that make you think, why did they restore sultanate. No other region in the north has restored king or Sultan.

No. They idn't do armed rebellion, but demonstrations were destructive. Tried also to intimidate the Sidama, Afar and Somalis to side with them and when they did not get that, which means even if they get PM will not mean much. It was blackmailing no doubt about it, but how you let this one go and keeping it on file maybe more important. Maybe not a stooge, but worked in government and security most of his time. The deputy for Oromo who is now foreign minister was also chief of federal plice for a decade or more. They say the guy who set up the federal police and deputy commissioner, Hassan Shifa of Tigray was real boss, but Hassan had left to another security agency after 5-6 years and Dr. Workineh was the real boss. What the Oromo say is that Dr. Werqineh is Tigre, but born and raised in Shashemene. That is why Hassan trained him and supported him. They say his grandfathers name is new which adapted after 1995. Who knows the ruth when politics is main playfield. lies are dime a dozen. And Hassan shifa is not a person that is to be intervied or written about. Always arund Police, Intelligence departments. Even during the fight against Derg was always Security and intelligence guy and member of central committee of TPLF. The real show now is in Amhara camp. Divorced with Oromo already. They now have to fight themselves. Cannot achieve on back of Oromo. The slanders have already started. There are about 5 Amhara organizations. Its regional. Its similar to clans in North. The clans had sultanates, the Amhara had kingdoms which is the same. When things do not go right then mistrust comes out and quarel starts. You have warlords from DC or London. One of the organization is suspected to be Tigray creation. Unfortunately that is the one that has something on the ground. One organization is blaming the other for calling strike after the state of emergency and paying people to go on strike which is not true. Actualy the state of emergency might have been speeded up to prevent what was planned in all Amhara kilil and it worked only one city went on strike, but that city was Derg city nothing new. The city is in north, but it was last city EPRDF entered in 1991. EPRDF decided was not worth any fighters death, so made it last city to automatically fall. One thing visible is Oromo government was working with opposition. Oromo is all quiet now. The Amhara have been left holding the bag and is first time they have to do things on their own. They have money american and beaurocracy, but not much. They are also most vulnerable for Tigray. Amhara kilil has significant Agew and also Tigray can speak Amharic wquite easily. Since Tigrinya is most difficult language to sound, those from Tigray can speak easily almost any language. Security and infiltrating they have the advantage. If a Tigray spent a year in Somalia, he can speak Somali and with local accent. The few differences you may think he is from this or that clan or region. Farmaajo looks like is doing the right thing. Has no benefit has no control over any side, so it maybe better be spectator and get info from all sides for future. He also has to be careful on Somali kilil. A lot has changed since late Siad Barre days. For the most part the Somali kilil has thrown its lot with Ethiopia and will fight and succeed in Ethiopia. If you cannot be king, be a good king maker.

Remember I am an Israeli and Russian program lol Will be hard sell in Tigray, but if the Americans insist will have to be Lema. Which ever one meets with Illey next days will be the one. I am serious. If its going to be an Oromo, he may have to go on national TV and apologize clearly no beating around the bush or long winded coded blaming the Somali for starting it. The Amhara are working overtime in Washington, to wait and get their own. They do not have a candidate that can be tolerated by the rest, so they are hoping Tigray will drag its feet until they have someone they can majority push for. For Tigray there is one condition. GERD. The Egyptians have to be beaten squarely for all generations next. It might even be from same area but different Ethnic in the South. Simply giving in to blackmail of Oromo maybe a bad precedence and a serious one at that, impossible to recover. What if other kilil start armed rebellion, are you going to give them PM post too. BTW the Oromos are not members of parliament, so it will take time no matter what after EPRDF decision. Some other Oromo has to give up his seat and Lema has to complete in some safe district. There is quite a lot of technicality that cannot be bypassed.

I don't think so. This is a call for outside interference. to pressure somaliland. I would not put it past the Egyptians who are weak, cowardly but cruel. The Palestinians are best example what Egyptians are capable of tretchery and malfeasance. Remember the "crime of Illey" is that he avoided soldiers from other cultures even Ethiopian ones. He said if there is need for war we will do it ourselves. If there is Al Qaeda at the border we will deal with it ourselves. If there is Ethnic or clan issues we will deal with it ourselves. Give us guns, money, support from outside. But stay out of my territory and people. Other kilil like Oromo tried to copy, but couldn't, so they have federals in all their towns and villages.

Competition in Djibouti has been won by the chinese. The western countries are moving to next best location. Take advantage of it. Djibuti cannot wait to see the back of these Europeans. The Americans came and pushed the French to second place The Chinese came and pushed Americans to second place Everybody else the British, Germans, Japanese don't count for sigificance, but count for mischief.

One of the biggest jokes, but true was paying 20 dollars in New York for people not to vote. If they vote it was assumed they will vote democrat so the republican guy organized a group with stack of 20s and sent them near election booths to convince people not to vote and paying them 20s. Deleting the computer memory right away after declaring the votes has become very common. Asking drivers license or photo Id where people are not expected to drive or having valid - or have one. Its so funny. In the south its out right, you would say how can people get away with this.

GERD is at the center of Oromo Tigray as well. Somaliland has told the Egyptians to take a hike last year when the deputy forign minister and chief of intelligence of Egypt spent a week in Somaliland. Oh salt, you need to taste for your own sake, otherwise people will say you are stone/sand and throw you applies to everybody. Puntland and Somalia have done this past 10 years. This is not lost on Ethiopians except those who are in a hurry to get to the top by any means including GERD. Remember Egypt Ethiopia direct threats started with an ethiopian project called Tana Beles 430MW plus irrigation. Mubarek and Meles spoke each other like school yard bullies in front of Beshir and president of Uganda. Meles told Mubarek come and try, you will get same as your ancestors. Mubarek's face was priceless.

How low and cruel does one have to be to go this length, to bring hell to decent people that have not wronged anyone. Unless the Americans are dropping Salaax's on their way evacuating from Syria to Afghanistan, this is wrong. Please do not forget whether its the Oromo or Tigray are doing what they are doing for themselves, first and foremost, not for any Somali. All the Somali is capable of doing now is not be railroaded and get killed and suffer for others. Mr. Bixi needs to show up in Jigjiga and sort few things before they get out of hand, before Somaliland is entangled in this Oromo Tigray thing that will come to pass as soon as it arrived, but leave debris.

That is funny especially when you put it at the end of some "super" analysis.

Those who are calling for Abiy Ahmed and those calling for Lema are different. The only thing common is it has to be Oromo. They are actually throwing some tid bits at each others candidate as to why it should be this not that. Addis Ababa and the Oromo language are going to be headache for everybody including Somali. Remember Dirdawa is federal city and both Oromo and Somali did just postpone argumrent even fight over it in 1991. I am sure galbeedi would be happy to make it Oromo, since he started stating the Oromo are now majority which is not true. Who ever comes, his test for Tigray is the GERD and internally to control the security and ensure safety of citizens in all kilils.

You may not have seen it, since you are all focused on Oromo, Tigray and Amhara, but Illey has released what he can release. The rest are federal prisoners. He will recommend those the kilil will not oppose their release. Of course he is not going to release somebody that has killed a person without conditions like served 2/3 of the time, remorse, forgiveness and recomendations by victim family etc.