When you are at the helm for a long time, and no body around you tells you NO even for the most egregious mistakes, your mind cannot think and every knee jerk reaction you show becomes as the most scientifically reasoned idea. The children in schools are made to sing your praises, your "deep" thoughts, yur foresight..yada yada... There is a very funny book written by one close assistant to Mengistu. In his last days in power he had become a Lawyer, Economist, military startegist genius...you name it. He started stating all this professions himself. No body even smiled let alone to tell him, he is none of those. I had an opportunity to listen to a WSLF man explain how late Barre behaved when told to conduct the war under WSLF instead of the Republic being the face and command. Late P. Barre almost was to jail or kill those WSLF folks that had the little integrity and manhood in them to speak contrary to what the President of Somalia..the Lenin, the Roosevelt, the Sultan, the philosopher, the genius... Aidiid also fell to the same Hubris, relying on Mengistu enthusiastic support at best and neutrality at worst. Oodweyne, Only your "friend" and neighbor IOG has better record than you folks when it comes respecting and defending the Somali. You may be blamed from different corners for different reasons, but never for disrespecting the Somali in dealing with who ever it was. Mengistu was of course USC and never fully trusting Somalilanders. He knew including those officials he trusted that Somalilanders are always Somali. Mengistu hated SSDF, but not for the reasons you think. He hated them because they were caught communicating with TPLF and others through WSLF. Meles also was the same with Somaliland. He always knew when it comes to Somali case in where ever that Somalilanders will stand with the dignity of the Somali. Even ICU was attacked only for the threat they posed to Somaliland, but never for their other shenanigans. Meles of course was SSDF first and USC at least half of it as enemy. The shame of the level that late P. Barre fell is actually on the people that stayed praising him more than himself. 77/78 should have been the end of him. He made the cardinal mistake, which affected negatively on all Somali people, least of all even those in Kenya. He had become so dumbed down by power that he ignored Kenya and Ethiopia have defense pact. He thought if he renounces any Somali claim and wishes for uniting all Somalis, he would get Kenya to be neutral or on his side. That was a big fat mistake, that came from arrogance or ignorance. He even trusted Egypt. No body trusts Egypt on anything. Deal with your eyes wide open. But as you said, if somebody has lost any confidence in themselves, they throw themselves at anything, let alone begging Clinton. I think it downed on Late P. Barre that G. H. Bush senior was patron of TPLF.

galbeedi, I think you have listed all fair and reasonable causes, but the situation in Syria at this stage is mistake from President Erdogan. Never forget that NATO and EU will never give precedence to Turkish interest. Israel, US and Britain are there to have a Kurdish state somehow. They see that as guarantee for them to be in those countries. They see that as obedient group to cause trouble any time the big powers wanted. Arabs were there and some still are there only as obedient servants of US/Britain/France and financiers of projects the big guys want. Read an analytical article/op ed in Anadolu. It clearly shows with time fromae and connections why Israel chose UAE for cover and financier in Africa. All UAE is doing is displace Turkish. In Syria when Turkish mid level commanders and security agencies worked with the regime when they needed to and President Erdogan had allowed this, things went fairly well. Overthrowing regime even when you hate it turns into Hubris over time, and when you do not have relacement things go wrong very rapidly. President Erdogan has better condition and better influence to arm twist Russians and Iran than he can arm twist Europe and America. Why is he still co-operating with terrorist that were sponsored by UAE and Saudis, when those countries themselves are rushing to make peace with Assad? Opening the borders to EU for the refugees at this time also gives the wrong message even faith wise. Using refugees as bargaining chip is always wrong. It invalidates the generosity of the Turkish. President Erdogan should listen to his foreign and defense ministers and forget for now what ever personal feelings and words he said in the past about Assad. This is the wrong time to act on it. Unless President Erdogan honors what he agreed with Iran and Russia and prevent the Americans going back to North east Syria and reconstituting Kurds, he will leave a worst future problem for Turkey than a temporary and inconsequential set backs. Remember Italy, France, Greece, Egypt, Israel and of course America and others all want Turkish to fail in Libya. They can overnight change in Syria. UAE is fully now working on side of Assad. If Turkish seem to succeed in Syria they will be made to fail in Libya, if they seem to succeed in Libya they will be made to fail in Syria. Syria is easier to solve for Turkish than is Libya. Turkish can avoid war and big problems in Syria far easily than in Libya.

There is big surprise in Amxara region and Amxara parties. Governing party is called Amxara Democratic party, new name since the old name Amxara democratic movement is assumed to have been given by TPLF. The main opposition party is called Amxara people democratic movement. The Chairmen and some associates of both parties were kicked out in the same week.

The highlighted is illegal and unconstitutional. Neither the parliament nor the president have the right to determine ways and means of their own election. There should be another body or institution to determine these systems. Senate or general public/population through election, referendum..etc

Makes perfect sense. When you are weak consensus matters more. What is the point of zero sum game, when zero sum game results are known to be ONLY temporary?

One thing most of us forget is the extremely important issue of losers consent. You could lecture in the scientific or computerized conduct of elections (which are far easier to cheat than the old method), but the most important factor is have you convinced the stake holders that you have generally accepted method? galbeedi, Census in Ethiopia became the hottest topic more than a year ago. Why? The Amxara were against it. Why? Their number may be cut in half. The Oromo did not mind. Why? They have the most number in the existing system/distribution. The Somali current leaders kept quiet or sided with Amxara. Why? The current crop were appointed by Abiy and Amxara friends. The stance should have been: Somali most interested in census, since the Somali has highest population growth. Oromo second most interested. Since they need to stand with Somali and also respect current system the most. Tigray/Afar interested to respect current system, but not so enthusiastic about census. Do not lose or gain since they are among the lowest population growth. Amxara should be expected to make life or death issue of census. Its in their interest. They stand to loose the most and probably detrimental. Somalianders should focus on convincing each other, so that those who loose in an election can give their consent. Loser accepting his/her defeat is best result of any election.

Puntland borders will be what Puntland wants them to be. It may not be a nomad culture, but avoiding unnecessary and pointless wars is an art. Oodweyne, Its safe to assume that you always have your propagandist bragging side anntenaes out for Puntland, which in my view you make an exception, but you understand that is exactly why Puntland drives crazy the whole horn of Africa, without breaking a sweat.

Quiet frightening.

We are not discussing this for: 1. Its real, important and hidden from "western News" for economic reasons 2. We do not understand that even if we pass adices we read to just one friend or relative can help 3. We do not see immediate political benefits to "our" side 4. Those ahead in biology sciences have made it so high tech while in the end they are only suggesting the same prevention as for flu.

Abiy promised to Ethiopia, there will not be arrest without accusation. There will not be accusation without investigation. He broke both on Illey and year later there is not a single article that has been brought to court.

Why is Illey still in prison? Is it because the Somali community in Ethiopia is so weak? Illey has never been accused of all the fake accusations on face book? Illey has never been accused of any "atrocity" "cruelty" manufactured face book campaign To date the only things Illey has been accused is of incidents that happened: 1. After the Army has kept Illey in what can be said house arrest 2. Its not Somalis that burned churches or killed Priests it some other group brought for that purpose 3. False flag operations was conducted to remove Illey and Amxara were told Illey wanted to seperate Somali Kilil, Oromo were told Illey killed Oromos and expelled a million from Kililka, Somalis were told Illey jailed you killed you inprisoned you with lions and tigers..and every thing under the sun. Abiy is now going to release some Tigray and maybe some Amxara and Oromos that were jailed, either by Afwerki demand or Abiy was terrified they might overthrow him. Illey crime in Ethiopia is: 1. He was too autonoous, culturally, educationally, militarily and economic development wise. Everything was Somali Only. 2. He wanted smooth transition since he was giving up precidency and only stay as party leader, a post Ahmed Shide has currently. 3. Those new blood were all strong men/women for Somali autonomy.

It would have been funny, except it involves human life. Moodabe must have got through somebody in UAE or US is still interested in keeping the Moodabe, ONLF..types alive and well just in case. Imagine Farmaajo trying to manhandle Puntland which is a society of haveing a modern government, before Belgium became a country, while he is having so much difficulty with Jubaland. Abiy and Afwerki are no help with the Nomad. Ghelleh would have been big help.

Oodweyne, I can see this face book trial Balloon from Kililka and Harer. Around the world there is one fact. Only rich countries, peoples care about places that have archeological and historical value, that is what Ceylac is. All Ceylac needs now is repair and build a small post facility, but mosdern for tourists boats, fishing boats and attract land tourists from Dgibuti, Ethiopia and the rest of Somaliland when development and economy grows. Any body who thinks anything remotely investment can come in a sandwitch between Djibouti and Berbera must out of their mind, if they had one. Only far away ports have remote chance of getting investment. Djibouti and Berbera have dried up any port investment for next decade. That is Bassaso size problem right now. People should wait and see what the Ethiopian and Somali businessmen will do about a port they want to build privately in Puntland.

It means Farmaajo has made an accomodation with Al Shabab and Moodabe wants to expose it. Expect in the coming weeks some one interviewed on Moodabe face book page, exposing this.

I agree. Let alone this, that can overthrow governments and be lawless in a hurry, even people killed in Ethnic fights was kept secret. Ethiopia last year had more IDP than Syria, yet you never saw any American broadcast on it.

Che, Kililka is not really a surprise non-Farmaajo Somali territory. I would be surprised if there is any significant group in Kililka that sees Farmaajo positively. Farmaajo is anti Ghelleh...that is a no no for any Somali even by the likes of ONLF who did not have good relations Farmaajo is ant-Somaliland and the stance of Kililka generally is Somaliland by geography and other factors are closest to Kililka therefore their peace is also Kililka's peace, their development is also Kililka's development. Farmaajo is anti-Puntland and there is nothing anti-Puntland in Kililka even by ONLF. Farmaajo has done nothing to all the neighbors to the South and East of Kililka, mostly Farmaajo has done nothing abut their security and governance let alone development. Farmaajo is ant-Jubaland which would not be the best thing to do by Kilililka..autonomy is important its a nomad culture after all. Westerners just gave it a fancy name. Farmaajo is too much into Abiy and Afwerki. Afwerki by the way is not appreciated by ONLF unlike the propaganda you hear otherwise. Farmaajo would be the least popular in Kililka, morre than any other Somali regions or countries.

Suldaanka, But there is no nail to hammer. Puntland has always options. Its just a matter of reurn on investment. As long as Somaliland exists the same way, Puntland is critical for both Somalia and Somaliland. You do not want to Push them South and the South does not want to push them North. That is a fact of life which has been the reality past 30 years and last 20 years openly and clearly. They can also simply choose UAE and follow through and never hesitate about Mugadishu choices and games. UAE will be more than happy to break the sympathy to Djibouti that is obvious. Ethiopia cannot harm Puntland. Its never in Ethioias interest, who ever is in power. Its also easy for Puntland to play games if it comes to it, against Faarmajo. That is easy if it comes to it. Your peace if not your existence is affected by what happens in Puntland. This is what Ghelleh used to say about Kililka, before he rearranged things from his border to Dirdhaba.

1984 what a bad year that was all of HoA Ethiopia wanted to go for the kill on Somalia and finish it off once and for all. WSLF split in two one side is what became ONLF SSDF disagreed with Mengistu and some were arrested in Ethiopia which also meant no outlet Ethiopia started its work with what became USC, since Ethiopia never felt comfortable with Somaliland Ethiopia had famine that killed up to a million people. The rest of the world saved Tigray from almost sure genocide Djibouti closed the door of joining either Ethiopia or Somalia and went ahead with consolidating its independence by signing agreements that will prevent both Somalia and Ethiopia from even thnking about Djibouti South Sudan renewed their Armed struggle which had cooled down with Federalism and splits

galbeedi, This is a waste of time trial balloon fake news to see if Djibouti and Berbera cry, the once who have to loose the most. Ceylac needs maybe 25-30 billion to make it fit for modern ships and containers, just port and town then Ethiopia needs 5-7 billion dollars for othe other facilities roads, railroads, dry ports..etc What would you do if you were Ethiopian leader? Djibouti almost zero new investment Berbera 400 million at the most which is for the most part roads maybe one year of dedicated work Assab at least 20 billion for port roads done in stages and 5 years Ceylac well 30 billion should give you good statrt. Djibouti will still have more facilities since it has 3 functioning ports, road, rsailroad...already even after investing all that money on others.

This is all trial balloon to keep the citizens of SOL republic talking and learning nothing. Waste of time issues. Let me remind you some trial balloons that the owners and initiators of the news knew has no chance of success or even start up. Oil Pipeline from Eritrea to Ethiopia. UAE/Abiy/Afwerki. Everybody should have known Ethiopia has no refinery. Ethiopia to use Assab port as its main port. UAE/Afwerki/Abiy. Simple question who is going to cough up the 10-15 billion needed to bring Assab to modern ships and containers capacity? Who is goignt to fix road Assab to Addis? Farmaajo will go to UN Arab League, AU, IGAD, Islamic countries....and annul Berbera agreeent. Afwerki/Farmmajo.. There will be war between Kenya and Somalia... Farmaajo will evict AMISOM Ceylac that at least 1000 year old port is same trail balloon fake news.

Che, The worst thing is we are debating on trial balloon. Ethiopia has no money. Let alone thousands of years old Ceylac, Ethiopia has no money to even do small upgrades to Berbera, Assab, Kismayu, Mugadishu....ports that have sme structure already. Djibouti has the most modern ports in Africa. Any Ethiopian with working head should just stick to it and develop additional facilities like railroad to rest of Ethiopia. Everything else about Eritrea, pipeline..etc is all face book propaganda and trial balloon.

galbeedi, The British were doing housekeeping work of their empire. The plan was to create one big Somalia except Djibouti and parts of Kililka and Somaliland all close and bordering to Djibouti. Both Ethiopia and crippled France had no objection as long as French and Ethiopian territories are contigeous and France has no border with future Somalia. Ethiopia wanted everything including Djibouti, but Ethiopia wanted Eritrea more than any other. Ethiopia herself conducts foreign relations only by and through Britain, since Ethiopia was British liberated enemy territory, It was British, SouthAfrican, Somalilanders and Sudanese (British forces that liberated it and Eritrea) The British representative (governor) advised Ethiopians to go for part Somaliland, since the British had determined to split Eritrea between Sudan which is theirs and Ethiopia. Foreign office had determined already if Ethiopia withdraws its claim on Eritrea (Ethiopia is working with Americans on this, but the British found out and gave them bad look. At the end. The one Somalia project failed (by Somalis) Ethiopia insisted with its claim on Eritrea regardless of East Ethiopia was told cannot claim Djibouti since it was 99 year agreement Ethiopia's agreement with Italy on Eritrea had no time limitation, the condition was that whever Italy has no use for Eritrea to return it to Ethiopia. US had opposed wanting independent Eritrea, but Ethiopia promised and gave US what it needed, a communications base. The British had no money or power to implement any of their wishes, and then they run out of time and gave everything to UN and left. Some Ethiopians wanted Ceylac more than Eritrea, since historically Ceylac is oldest port and most used and most famous even in Xabeshi country and Europe. But that is how history is made by seemingly interconnected, disconnected incidents. Ethiopia is without port. No one Somalia Kililka and NFD still remain where they were in 1940s Djibouti became independent country since Ethiopia had Mengistu and Somalia hade late Barre, both dictators, but useless on long term startegic issues and both killed their countries.

Poor Puntland gets blamed for everything under the sun from all sides. They must have done and still doing something right. Puntland faces so much treachery from every angle.

This is African statistics where numbers are set before the start of the count. At 7% growth the population doubles every 12-15 years. Example Kililka now is estimated at the very least 7 million.

Remember that every European country, every gulf Arab country had a terrorist organization in Syria. America had about 10 of them with changing names. Everybody now abondoned their organizations on Turkish lap. Turkey having impossible time to separate them terrorists, rebels, moderates, radicals...etc Can you imagine France and Britain who had the most destructive role blaming now Turkey. Iran and Russia are saying, if Turkey cannot separate them in whole year then we attack everybody. The Turkish were also a bit late in Libya. They knew that Italy, France and Britain are there knee deep. UAE and Saudi are there with their poodle Sissi. Somali young are smart. Except very few in Iraq and Syria nothing heard in Libya, Yemen..etc.