Old_Observer

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Everything posted by Old_Observer

  1. Its Israel sending them everywhere with their UAE own money. They were mad with Gheulleh and are doing everything to tick him off. America also is not happy in Djibuti, but as strong as reckless America is, not much to do in Djibouti. Not that oil wells drying up, but evry joe has now oil. and oil will never go up as long as Russia is competitor to America. China's road is now main target. If only Somalia had Kismayo in contrl, in order secure and safe for business. Could be easily used until Uganda. Too late now is out of play.
  2. Nothing changes. UAE is the upper hand in both countries. Ethiopia of course has better choices than Egypt by a small factor. Turkey is one of the biggest investors in Ethiopia. Sudan is more important to Ethiopia than Egypt. Of course on Egypt I am biased. Botom line is Egypt is the most useless and worthless elephant in the Arab world. In Ethiopia UAE has to compete with many others and some of them UAE does not like. In Egypt UAE/Saudi are dictators they dictate terms. In this issue of Somaliland, Ethiopia's policy is determined by: 1. Effect on Somali kilil which is positive the kilil will get investment as much as Somaliland 2. Djibouti You can rest assured Djibouti has given green light as long as the 80% of ethiopia's business is guaranteed and Ethiopia will not participate in Kismayo or Mogadishu majaor threats for Djibouti 3. Somalia in general and Puntland in particular. Cannot be against them even if may not like it, but not detrimental. UAE finds Egypt very unreliable, too much in debt, wants always money and wants to be treated as major power. All contradictory. Ethiopia on the other hand is poor, not interested whether you see it as major power or not. Diplomatically Ethiopia is more influential than Egypt. When another poor country Somalia told Egypt "I do not do it for you". Nothing they could do.
  3. Oodweyne, If people from all corners are taking pot shots at you, it means you are winning. Look at campaigns the front runner gets most kitchen sinks thrown at. Look In Ethiopia and neighbouring countries now everything is Tigray. Its materially one of the poorest in a poor country, yet evryone is either can't stand them or competing with them. You need to be concerned when people ignore or are decrying less. Turkey just rubbed few noses and now are like super power yet did not changemuch the country. Somaliland as it gets places and unfortunately everywhere else in the area is downer news then you will be targeted.
  4. We are so caught up with so much useless information these days, most people do not remember and some do not want it known. He may not want Mogadishu to cut to his business, but never has he done wrong against any Somali people anywhere. Somalilanders are a bit uneasy about him, that is to be expected.
  5. He is independent minded, not encumbered by prospect of power. Russia has Vlaimir Zhironvsky who can say that "Russia should bomb few places". Member of parliament, presidential candidate.
  6. Ethiopia would not do this without Djibouti green light. Ethiopia cannot use another port unless it owns the other port. That is why Ethiopia had to be shareholder. This will limit Ethiopia's business through Berbera to 20% at most. Djibouti has built already ports in the north which have separate agreements. The percentage there might be even higher for Djibouti. Kismayo Mogadishu would have been next, but very unlikely current conditions. In this new agreement, Ethiopia is not bound from developing new ports in other parts of horn. They must have Suakin and Kismayo in mind, but primarily will be Puntland. Puntland is critical for confidential or military or other materials. More security than Djibouti or Berbera for Ethiopia.
  7. "The Ambassadors of Italy, France and Great Britain had meeting every evening for a week with a group of Shiwa Amhara nobles, in Addis Ababa. At the end of the week the pope was called and told to excomunicate Lij Iyasu. The pope was told that Lij Iyasu is spending too much time with Moslems and has moslem woman, has secretly converted to Islam. Lij Iyasu was deposed and Haileslassie put as regent on his way to being crowned Emperor. The rest is history" How a Future emperor was deposed. His crime was wanting alliance with Turkey and Germany to leberate Djibouti and Eritrea. The British were spying on his contacts with German Ambassador and his nunnie and teacher having been germans all his life till then.
  8. I am "Tigraye" lol I asked another Tigraye.He told me the word is same in Somali and few other languages including Tigray.
  9. Is not Habeshi. He is Somali unless the Ethiopian Somali is Habeshi in your books.
  10. Good thinking. But the SFG is not solid on this. Cannot be with Turkey Qatar since the UAE Saudis would just make Mogadishu hell, worst than what is being done. Some regions are also in the bag for UAE. Its just so difficult. Exactly same as 1890s. I would say get out of Mogadishu and work on having a Somali government. The regions would come running to compete and you need much less if any AMISOM. Remember when Jowhar warlord guaranteed with his life and a lot of property if late Abdullahi Yusuf chose his city?
  11. You could not recoginize. He is a Somali. He is one of the two Somali ministers in Ethiopia. There are 3 state ministers as well.
  12. Puntland should stay put. This is 1890s all over again. History repeating by some same and others new players.
  13. Too late for the game right now. Kismayo opportunity passed by at the TFG of late Abdullahi Yusuf. Kismayo missed the forest and went for desert trees that are few and far between.
  14. Looks like. They both have significant on the ground support. The Russians are not noisy but have connections and support locally. Americans are kind of hesitating between Oromo and Amhara and immediately don't want to be seen against the rest, since the rest have on the ground power. Even the Somali kilil can throw a monkey wrentch to the hole project. I hope the chinese are quitely planning major investments in Somali kilil. The Somali and Afar are key to "one road one belt".
  15. AU Receives $197 M From EU To Pay Troops It will all disappear in Mogadishu dust. So many millions declared and given with nothing to show for so far. Very sad.
  16. Jawar has placed himself in catch 22. The Amhara which he and the Oromos thought are in the bag have filtered away and now full on campaign against him. He said a few things to alley fears of Tigray Afar and that got him in hot water in Oromo. Waraabe is effective and impactful, since he is on the ground and I am sure even his mortal enemies share information with him. Waraabe is probably most informed politician, but he is on the ground confident and sometimes even arrogant. Jawar is not on the ground. Jawar can be dealt an end if telephone service is cut for a week. Not Waraabe.
  17. "It feels darker before the sunrise" This is for everybody. Ethiopia is in trouble at home. This could be best opportunity for Somalia and or Somaliland. Djibouti is in trouble with USA and EU. This could be opportunity for Somalia and or Somaliland. Here is where the real and the fake leaders will separate. Everyone including Gheuelleh wants to squeeze Ethiopia, but all afaid if the screws driven too fast the wood will split and the whole piece of lumber will be useless. Somaliland has tto find a way through UK to get to USA. That could be end game. This is best time to do it. Somalia can stay with Djibouti, Ethiopia and get to China through Turkey. This is best time to do it. Most risky but return is greatest. Ethiopia should stay truelly neutral. The people on the ground should matter the most instead of politicians.
  18. Ethiopia needs one in a hurry. Everyone is talking in coded words and polite delivery in that country. The most dangerous environment. Countries cannot function without a Waraabe. I remember him challenging ICU and his statement which was frowned upon initially became the statement of everyone including Meles Zenawi.
  19. Bixi is fast becoming Clinton. "A lot of people trying to build a piece of his gasket, yet no body to kill him" as the saying goes.
  20. And that is he sign of weak society that accepts weak leaders who speak with forked tongues. I think that is also done by instructions. Revile Israel but serve her. Israeli agents in egypt paid by Egyptians. Egypt is the only country in the world which at one time had its total general staff all that led losing war and never questioned, never demted, never retired a single one of them. One is now president.
  21. Of all places the PM could have visited like homes of some wealthy investors, ministry for work permits, etc it has to be this one where UAE stopped nazism, communism, and liberated mankind from all ills.
  22. This has ben going on for long time. Egypt cannot survive without Israel. Egypt's relation with US, Egypts relation to Iran...friend or foe is all as per Israel's wishes and permission.