Old_Observer

Nomad
  • Content Count

    3,669
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    30

Everything posted by Old_Observer

  1. Oodweyne, I know you folks are hussling to make up of the last 20 years lost time, but oil is still most dangerous business. The late Ethiopian PM Meles Zenawi had this to say after drilling few samples in Somali kilil and Gambella western Ethiopia. Both places flared up. In parliament he stood and said the following: 'Where ever there is oil, is all misery and wars. If you give it to French co. British or American company goes to another tribe and starts trouble. What ever oil we have will stay on the ground until we ourselves are able to do the extraction and processes 100% or at the very least 80% ourselves without any investment or technology from foreign companies or countries" This late in the game for oil, that is best policy. The Bedewin got lucky and used and abused oil.
  2. Very sad understanding. Somalia is better than who? I do not have to put down Somalia to show that you are wrong. Where did you get your numbers? This is called one who doesn't have a donkey denigrates the mule/horse. If I may, its always better to evaluate something on its merit, rather than comparing especially when you have nil/zero information when you say 50% or 1%. As far as Somaliland and Djibouti. You can totally ignore that half the population of Djibouti and all population of Somaliland except the Ethiopians in both lol, are same Ethnic. 1. Neighbors 2. A lot of population overlap especially business people 3. Fiercely competition in many fields business even telecomunications 4. Competing for same market/customer Ethiopia 5. Competing same supplier UAE in past up to now Guelleh does not have illusions, deals with real things. He is not afraid to do confederation with Ethiopia, Somaliland, Djibouti if he finds out that will work for the Don and the street overlooking his palace. He might even add Puntland and then not much to do, but cussing.Kick Bedewin from horn of Africa and bring the chinese. How about that?
  3. That is the key. Dams are there for at least next 50 years. There is plan in Somali kilil to build 3 artificial lakes and settle nomads around and close by these lakes where they are alwwyas provided drinking water and trained to farm plots close by these lakes where small pumps can be used for irrigation for year round farming. Compared to other investments this is very cheap and long lasting as well as life changing. Even tourism can come later on.
  4. You may be shocked to find out that Gheuelleh has Ethiopia in his corner. It is more than 19%. lol But I understand Somalis in Djibouti and Somalis in Mogadishu is quite different when it comes to Ethiopia. Djibouti is all business. Hate is against development.
  5. Amin Amir becomes more of politician less of creative artist cartoonist when it comes to Ethiopia. Its always crude when it comes to Ethiopia. But then he is cartoonist so it is all fair. Even his bias shows on his cartoon. I asked five Somalis from Mogadishu who they think the Ethiopian minister is and 3 said Tigray and 2 said Amhara. That is how ignorant people can be. I had to google and show them another article the minister is a Somali. Amin Amir also used the psychological propaganda old image of Ethiopians. I am sure he would completely change his mind if he was to spend time in Somali kilil.
  6. Its a toss up. They have this in Ethiopia, Canada, India.. For it to work every clan sub clan party should be based on local government. That way politicians cannot use blaming one clan different to theirs. The Oromo party was isolated in its region. What they decided to choose was blame everything on Tigray for their failures and corruption. Local government even a district is the best method. Powers clearly defined and also money from center divided according to formulae they have agreed. But no one formula works for everyone. Past history is also very importnat.
  7. That is another priceless. Talking about warming the seat, I can tell you one real incident. No matter what any one tells you the Americans did not want ICU banished. The Ethiopians wanted ICU banished. As was revealed in Wikileaks later the Americans went on full fledged spying and telephone monitoring of late A. Yusuf. This is after he refused to accept ICU demands that the federal system "devilish system" be rejected. Come to mogadishu only with your change of cloths no militia from Puntland and Bay and no support from Ethiopia, just your change of cloths, even that if you insist otherwise we will prepare for you Jalabiya here lol So the Americans did not find Ethiopia to be seat warmer. It took them some years, but finally did bring Ruanda Brundi and said no neighboring countries and not even Djibouti that had a battalion ready trained with Ethiopians. Then Kenya won the seat worming role, but all these countries demanded that Ethiopia provide help. So America brought Ethiopia under AMISOM. Can't win even as strong, wealthy, world power America. The Ethiopians have a lot of opportunities and challenges in their tool box on the ground. When you have 6-7 million Somali citizens of your country, when Puntland and Somaliland are not opposed to it including some groups in Mogadishu. Bay Bakool not opposed or supporting and in the south some groups prefering Ethiopia to Kenya with the 1997 experience. Some times seat warmers can influence the owner of the chair with tact and principles.
  8. Tillamook, Che, Here is your ally Jawar whom you were hoping to dismantle Ethiopia is calling: Stop any demo or obstruction, this is provocation. The Oromo needs rest. Oromo government call emergency meeting and expel Dr. Abiy (PM candidate) and Abadulla (speaker) No Oromo should fight or die for Abiy to be prime minister. Not even peaceful protest should be done. I have been telling you that the Oromo went about it the wrong way. 40 million is not a good tool to intimidate other nationalities. It has already started. Like anyone else the Oromo also have a lot of local politics that is contradictory to each other. Respect of differences is important. Respecting their fellow Oromos was crucial. You cannot have 40 million people supporting you like sheep. Victory has many claimants, but failure is an orphan. The Oromos should realize that in Amhara kilil the opposition is scattered here and there. Generally speaking the Amhara may be strong opposition to Tigray, but there are redlines they cannot cross. After all if the situation goes to military, they know which side most of the fighters are. Even the Oromo recognize this, if push comes to shove at this time all other kilils will side with federal. If that happens its game over for facebook. Can you imagine the Oromo now bringing Lema again as chairman and then get him elected to federal Parliament and then get him elected in EPRDF. If EPRDF still goes ahead and elects Abiy that would be greatest set back to the Oromo. Hard to recover from for some time. He would be damaged goods.
  9. There is more axes on Puntland than any other Somali area. Those who failed in Mogadishu have decided to go the unitary state and have calculated this is best time to bring Puntland to its knee and dismantle Federal system Those folks like Oodeweyne are convinced this is best time to do away with Puntland, or bring her down a notch to accept Somaliland as separate for the sake of peace and avoid war. If SFG gave 1% of all the money being wasted in Mogadishu, it would pay the militia. Even Turkey or UAE are not interested, since one condition of Puntland is not having foreign armies in its cities. The most Puntland will accept if interest of Somalia is some base middle of desert so as not to polute society. Ethiopia and kilil are too busy with their own homes cannot help. The Don should come to the rescue. He is making a mistake trying to work from Mogadishu instead of Puntland in his friendly but fiercely competition with Somaliland. Suldaanka, Are you the Jawar of Somaliland or Jawar is the Suldaanka of Oromo? Anything goes. Sometimes old news, sometimes fake news, but I admit most times real news from you. Anything coming on Puntland from your neighborhood is suspect of either old news or fake news.
  10. Why all the hate on Ethiopia? Historically part of Somaliland and all of Djibouti was sold to French and British by Ethiopian king minelik. The agreement is use it as long as you need it. Do not come inland to my empire. I will help you quiet if any locals resist. Do not ever help my competitors from North the Gojjam and Tigray do not even talk to them. That is why in 1977 Somlia did not have any basis to claim any part or whole Djibouti. Somalilanders would admit that when British were winding down, asked Ethiopia if it wants to take back Zeila. Ethiopia said NO because Ethiopia's case on Eritrea was based on having a port and if they take Zeila then will not be given Eritrea. Zeila and Hareri were together for most of recent history either the Sultan from Zeila controlls Hareri or the other way round. Its not like Ethiopia is from mars and the Somali is jupiter..and now its pure business, but even in the old days all peoples in the area were interacting to friends or fighting as enemies. Alliance formed enemities and friendships shifted all the time. "This cry is for more than a goat" A Somali saying made famous and brought to age of facebook by Illey.
  11. Yemen is suffering same conditions that Somalia did and they are going about it the same way downhill. The Southerners shoul never have given refuge to Hadi, for simply being a southerner. I think at the end of the day the Houthi will have a major role of what is left of Yemen. They will threaten UAE with missiles and will get a better deal from UAE than the south. The Bedewin are running wars of the tribes with 21st century weapons. Taking islands ports resources and soon will propose some kind of structure and get it approved as rule for Yemen. The people of Yemen, Somalia, Syria and Afghanistan are paying for having brave and heroic ancestors that fought colonizers, but those same ancestors left also problems. Empires never forget. The first time British went to Afghanistan after 911 all commonwealth media was talking how from a British expedition only one soldier on horse back made it out of Afghanistan.
  12. You know why the Ethiopians went there? Who invited them, hint: is a general vilified to high in Somaliland He invited asked that his people are being butchered and the request came through WSLF When interviewed in Mogadishu during ICU, but after ICU has been banished and late A. Yusuf entered, that General said "We might have been enemies at one time, but we knew they are more long term thinking people and would not ignore our request for help. No matter how much we fought each other, they also know we are close" That is kind of decision making one needs, even call your "enemy" when the risk is too great and you have no capacity to protect the people. Aideed folks were simply taken off the list of "human" for burning grain on the farm. A WSLF fighter who was a company commander simply broke down cried and told his commander that "he himself might committ crime on Aideed folks so will serve an interpreter rather than command" He was sent back to Ethiopia with instructions that he would not be assigned no where in southern part of Ethiopia. That fighter/commander is now a colonel and lives in Western Tigray near Gonder. That war has affected civilians and military how cruel how inhuman we people can be, regardless of all prognostications...
  13. Tillamook, I know you do not accept advice from Tigray lol and a Tigray AI to boot, but for what its worth here is my suggestion. There is no Somali even the fanatically greater Somalia like you, that is willing to spend his money on this fight let alone to die for it. SFG Parliament should hold a session, don't expect absolute majrity, since I know for sure a lot of MPs are UAE side stronger than Somaliland, pass the following resolution: "The Federal Republic of Somalia encourages all regions of Somalia to enhance development. The Agreement between Somaliland Port Authority, DP world and Ethiopian Public Enterprises is an agreement between companies and public corporations from Somalia, Ethiopia and UAE. The Parliament of Federal Republic of Somalia does not have the resources at the present to investigate in detail. At a later date the agreement between these corporations will be reviewed in the interest of the Federal Republic of Somalia and modified if found to be deficient" File this with UN, AU, Arab league, Islamic state, IGAD, End of Story In reality even this will not be done, since SFG is not sure it can get the votes.
  14. Thank you for recognizing that. Find the answer to one question and everything will be clear to you. How many MPs were physically in the house at time of vote? Two occasions that give you the answer: The other one was OBN that video refused to link. Che for sure has seen it. lol The point is on Dr. Abiy who is out of Oromo his head is on choping block. Amhara is taken as Tigray in 11th hour, etc. According to Jawar Dr. Abiy did not sit in parliament during the vote. He knew it was going to pass. So he wanted to say that if he was in the house he would have voted against it, but there was emergency party meeting. He was in Addis that day. Jawar is sure. If he had voted against it, then he cannot be PM. Jawar is saying Dr. Abiy absenteed himself to please both sides and this is worst than the Oromo MPs who voted in support of SOE. Che, You will not find this in Addis Standard, but in OMN, Facebook and youtube. Ask an AI an Amhara or Oromo AI lol As for the numbers 88 against 7 abstention is not in dispute, because the Oromo knew this before getting in session. The Oromo had meeting for 2 days trying to device a strategy what to do since the SOE was going to pass. They knew this because their members were split.
  15. I tried to find what the heroes did, have not found anyone or anything yet. Does anyone know if UAE heroes are from fight with Saddam, Iran, British, Saudi or...Qatar Afghanistan Syria or Iraq with ISIS?
  16. What is that you wanted to say? I did not sleep therefore awakening was not necessary. Please read my explanation again or calmly and will be clear. I am not from Djibouti, but Just to show my appreciation for the strategy and tactics of Djibouti, I have used the flag of Djibouti as avatar.
  17. George Soros Orwellian Institute Accuse, Accuse, Blame Blame never go into explaining, just paint a catchy name and move on. Tillamook, What part do you not understand? Ethiopia cannot use any port other than Djibouti unless Ethiopia has ownership. Ethiopia now has entered into agreement to own 19% of the venture. Ethiopia is poor country so it cannot come up with cash. On the other hand Ethiopia is very rich country, one of it is road construction. Therefore Ethiopia will invest in road construction which has many folds return for Ethiopia. 1. Somali kilil will have another international road and train is never far behind 2. Somali kilil will see investment raining. Export oriented Industries, and service related to industries and travelers and transport 3. Somalis from kilil will have jobs and high paying ones in the whole chain If you must do something do it your own way and most beneficial to you. That is what Ethiopia is doing. If Ethiopia have to have shares, then pay for these shares with something that pays back to you more than other share holders. Hint: The minister of Transport of Ethiopia, who worked for more than 2 years on this was the economic advisor and planning chief for the kilil before that. He is a person who probably knows the most of the economic ins/outs of this deal. The Somali kilil benefits the most from this deal, more than Somaliland or even DP world. The whole kilil will be transformed.
  18. I think the road comes first. The road is going to be built to cross as much as possible of Somali kilil. In Ethiopia is being said even to make it longer by about 100km than it needs to be so that it crosses the most provinces possible, before joining the road Djibouti Ethiopia on its way to Addis Ababa.
  19. MEDREK calls for a forum to transform current situation and orderly transfer of power for democracy and rights. Therefore, the party is calling for a forum that will facilitate the democratic and peaceful transition of power. According to the statement, the party is committed for the realization of the forum and also called upon the pubic and members of the diplomatic corps to exert as much effort as possible for the realization of the dialogue and negotiation forum. Medrek is a coalition of four political parties including the Oromo Federalist Congress (OFC), the Union of Tigrayans for Democracy and Sovereignty (Arena), the Sidama Liberation Movement (SLM) and the Ethiopian Social Democracy- Southern Ethiopia Peoples Democratic Union, now ESDP. OFC is party of Dr. Merara Gudina and Beqele Gerba recently released from prison.
  20. Why can't Ethiopia be serving these folks interest? Is it because Ethiopia is big and these folks are small in numbers? Some times it helps to see interest of Madoobe and ask yourself how he recruited Ethiopia to be on his side, rather than Ethiopia created and raised Madoobe. There may be a better solution and come together with Madoobe that way rather than calling him Ethiopian and want him the next minute to be Somali Republican.
  21. UN security council UK, Ethiopia for a start. What a coincidence.
  22. I was just listening watching video on you tube what the late Meles Zenawi said about Assab Eritrea. "As long as Ethiopia does not use Assab, it will remain to be water hole for Camels" Eritreans have very divided view on this: Majority say Meles was right and 20 years has shown that to e true Some fake nationalists noisy ones as always say its watering hole but ours not Ethiopian Some say Gheulleh killed Assab. That Mafia Don outplayed us.
  23. I have the same soft spot for anyone fighting to get better than what they currently have, that includes Somaliland as well. The reason you might have noticed me having even softer spot for the Don is 1. He is working for himself and his shindig first 2. He has always done that even when Djibouti was just watering hole for Camels 3. Somaliland and some groups in Mogadishu accuse him of Mafia dealings, but the man has not brought any war to any Somali area, even when he has that capacity. Has always done business the business way 4. I want Ethiopia to stay loyal to Djibouti as always I do not think yu need more reasons than that, except hidden ones lol.
  24. MMA, You are mistaken on the shares issue. It is not Somaliland or Ethiopia that wanted the share holding. Djibouti has a condition that Ethiopia cannot use other ports unless it has ownership. This is an agreement about 20 years old. It was a guarantee Djibouti wanted before investing so much on the port. It was a condition DP old company also wanted. Uganda Ruanda Brundi were not asked to guarantee their business. Djibouti wanted this to prevent Ethiopia from taking its business to Eritrea. There is parts of Ethiopia that could use Port Sudan better that has train and roads already coming close to Ethiopian border, Sudan built dry port but still Ethiopia cannot move business to Sudan unless is by agreement and acknowledgement by Djibouti. What seems so dificult to understand this pure business affair? Does everything has to be tied to governments and their political arguments?
  25. First of all can't no capacity And most importantly shouldn't. No need to do that. This is not a child play of damaging the play ground just to spite the other child.