Che, You are aware that Abiy main and primary supporters are from Derg, Ginbot 7, Amxara unitarists..etc. Every single one of his closest advisors are Derg, Eritrea, Unitarists who are enemies to each other, but who feel threatened by the federalist axis of from Somali to Tigray all the east side. It took years and years of work, to bring Kililka in one Front/Party. There could be factions, but at least they work from one party/Front and at very least they will respect autonomy. What was the first thing Abiy and Co. did? Get rid of this minimum common program of the Somali. They have now managed to return the situation to what it was in the 90s where you have 4-5 Somali organizations being used by this or that Ethiopian organizations. A Somali should do all his competition, even fights at home in Kililka and never use Ethiopian government to settle scores. Unless this is achieved 100 years of fighting and sacrifice will not be able to maintain the limited autonomy that was achieved.

Dahireeto, Good idea, but not good for Dgbouti. Tourism is a kind of business that can disappear in a single day, but takes decades to build. Example: Cornavirus has now killed so many economies from Rome to Singapore to Hong Kong in a matter of few days. When the Turkish downed a Russian aircraft their Tourism suffered in a single month and has taken now years to just restore it. Djibouti has no population for Tourism, Textiles...kind of business. The best business for Djibouti is Port and Finance related. The plan was to produce all food in Ethiopian side under joint ownership and management. This would prevent people coming to Djibouti and diluting the society. Imagine if 1% of Ethiopians moved to Djibouti, they become majority in Djibouti. Tourism is good as long as the investment and also the degradation of the locals is tolerable. Any tourist place, the locals are not respected and it would be hard for the Djibouti nomad to accept this culturally.

WSLF is the most "criminal" in the current Ethiopia or Somalia and even Somaliland or South. 1. WSLF told late Barre for the war to be conducted as liberation movement and not as invasion. He rejected, demoted some and alienated some. When the war fell apart the leadership in Somalia hated WSLF. 2. In 1984 WSLF did a conference where they declared the minimum arrangement for the Somali people to stay in Ethiopia is federal system. All anti-Federalists hate WSLF. 3. WSLF was the link to all Ethiopian resistance movements except Eritrea and to some Somali movements. Example SSDF and TPLF. WSLF had contacts with Sidama, some Oromo organizations, with the Afar and even with a small organization in Amhara region that later formed with EPRDF. 4. Somaliland of course cannot be openly friends with WSLF since the Mengistu regime would deal with them as he did with SSDF for contacting with WSLF and through them with the likes of TPLF. When people come to their senses and when all those who support fake unitary system in Ethiopia and Somalia are soundly defeated..people will evaluate and history will be more kind to WSLF than everyone else including those who splintered from WSLF and formed ONLF.

Oodweyne, You must be celebrating. Of course, quietly and hiding your face and your smile from Arab eyes. For most thinking folks the Military base was the only downside to the whole deal and now that is gone. As for the port, it will actually get enhanced, since the enemy of UAE, Turks, Qatar.. are going to Djibouti, and also the friendly competition to UAE, the Saudi are staying put in Djibouti and not even considering Eritrea. Unless UAE folds and crumbles, Berbera is now their only hope. Aden will not work. They will never get Suakin even if they lay Gold on the way there.

Duufaan, Do you still stand by what you wrote here years ago? There is more Ethiopia and in more places. AMISOM has not reduced from then. Djibouti is now least involved than in any other time in the past 3 decades. Baydaba became worst example of arresting ones local opponent using Ethiopians.

Haatu, You need a dictatorship of some kind. Not dictatorship on everything, but dictatorship of something. Example: If what comes is political dictatorship, then don't bother the people who are apolitical. Traders, farmers, factory workers...just support them never bother to make the farmers league in a village political. They do not need to sing your praises. If the dictatorship is cultural, for example, if you want to change the nomad to work in a factory 12 hours a day straight, be a dictator that way, but do not bother him once he has done that. Do not try to be a dictator in everything. Japan, Russia, England, Italy, Turkish, Iran, China....every single one of them had dictatorship. 100 years ago a group of Xabeshi went to the king and advised him to copy the Japanese system, instead of the European he was trying to copy. He refused. BTW some how the Japanese and Xabeshi had contacts and even small trade, believe it or not. Even the Xabeshi priests condemned some of the technology that was coming. The devils work... There is conditions for a dictator that can develop a society: 1. He cannot be corrupt. Dictator and corrupt never go together. If he is corrupt, he is not a dictator, just a bandit and never a corrupt dictator succeeded in history. If somebody corrupts you, it means they black mail you, they know your weakness. To be a good dictator, you cannot show weakness. 2. He should only be fanatic in development, never in any other field, culture, finance even faith. Ataturk is best example of this. People even in Turkey cannot confidently tell you if he was Muslim, Jewish or even Christian. They cannot confidently tell you if he was Persian, Turkish, Ashkenazi, Balkan, Mesopotamian/Assyrian/Kurd..

The Truth of the matter is right in the middle between galbeedi and Oodweyne. It is not as serious and life threatening as Oodweyne thinks and is not something to be ignored as galbeedi thinks. The case is such that the big powers have no role or say. Abiy and Afwerki are the only tools of influence here. Abiy by taking away business, which he can't and Afwerki by manufacturing trouble which also can't. Saudi are fully on Djibouti side. Prince Salman is looking for anyone to be on his side and the DON knew this. Saudi have a base in Djibouti which makes them feel as super power along with world powers, yet they cannot use it for Yemen, which they agreed.

https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/saudi-arabia-detains-three-members-saudi-royal-family https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/two-senior-members-of-saudi-royal-family-detained-reports/

No matter and regardless how it came about, this is great news/development for Somaliland. The military base was the bitter part for Somaliland to swallow, but it came with a situation where Somaliland could not say NO. Somaliland said NO to Egypt and suffered some consequence. This is great. No threat for Somaliland getting remotely involved against Djibouti or Yemen.

The Turkish are relying on unreliable people in Syria. The local allies are Embarassing Turkish at every step, but the war has some benefit for testing weapons and also for advertising weapons. Soon Turkish will be top 5 weapons exporter. As for the refugee situation, its a complete scandal. Syrian allies of Turkey are pushing people to go to Turkey so that Turkey would be forced to come to Syria and fight for those tretcherous coward arabs in Idlib.

The Egytians won when Meles died. He had a totally different approach to this issue than Hailemariam or Abiy who both of them are terrified of Egyptian tricks and activities. So much so, European countries Britain, France and Italy had started investing in power sector in Ethiopia. As Egypt reconciled and moved closer with Saudi/UAE the Turkish also moved closer to Ethiopia. Only Sudanese and Ethiopians Xabeshi are willing and capable to face Egypt. Historically Egypt has never defeated Sudanese or Xabeshi at war over centuries, even when Egypt used American generals from the American civil war. Egypt is not worried about Ethiopian dam, but the fact that other Africans will copy and then Egypt has to deal with 10 countries. Israel also uses the Nile as pressure tactic all the time. ONLY SOMALIS have gone out of this game between Egypt and Ethiopia. I hope the next step is Somalis to talk about water for ones self. No more fighting for Egypt's sake.

Somalilanders need to think hard and deep. Djibouti relishes for Somaliland to take 20% of Ethiopia's business. You can take this to the bank. I list some of the reasons: 1. Comparing Eritrea and Somaliland Djibouti will always and every time choose Somaliland 2. If Ethiopia can return to the fast development it had for some 15 years, Djibouti will never have the capacity to handle everything. Another road, another railroad, few more dry ports..will be needed. You cannot invest new money before you start to recover the previous investment. 3. Djibouti is almost guaranteed to prevent war from Afar and Kililka regions in Ethiopia and from Somaliland and Puntland. But not from Eritrea. No guarantee who Eritrea will be servant to any day. Eritrea expelled Qatar for no reason other than the Qatari discussing with Ethiopia to guarantee the safety of their soldiers. France, America, British...always did the same. Assurance from Ethiopia to extricate their soldiers in crisis, defend their soldiers, provide land access if emergency situation at seas...etc. Calm down and never try to assume a zero sum between the two of you. The DON does not deal this way, never. He is a give and take kind of Nomad, the old fashion way.

Abiy, Afwerki and Farmaajo in that order, the biggest Arab behind kissers and shameful servants are the biggest losers in this. The only Somali leader who acts with confidence, patience and dignity without panic won the day. The Arabs can go to "civilize" their "new slaves" in Ethiopia and Eritrea and to some extent in Mugadishu.

galbeedi, I hate to say it, but the latest problem of more than million Syrians threatening Turkish internal politics is partly the making of president Erdogan. He played too many games between America, Europe, Russia and Iran. As Turkish become more competitive, you should expect they will have more enemies than friends. They are now as powerful as Britain, as France..etc. Even Israel is saying that Turkish is more threat than Iran. Syria should have been easiest issue to contain for Erdogan. He stayed too long with NATO on this and now they sabotage him. He stayed too long with Arabs on this and now they working against him. Here is a comment I read: "In Syria, Turkey’s blossoming relationship with Russia involved uncomfortable trade-offs - in which each side abandoned an ally. For Russia it was the Kurds of the Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD) and for Ankara it was the Syrians of East Aleppo." Erdogan cornered "With 3.6 million registered Syrian refugees in Turkey, a resurgent Kemalist opposition that has seized control of the two major cities Istanbul and Ankara in the last elections and openly expresses hostility to the refugees, coupled with the splitting of his own conservative Islamist party base, Erdogan was cornered. "

Suldaanka, You guys are becoming like everybody else. Too many announcements and not a stone positioned. How many years has it been since two issues are always talked about. Modern road wide, straight and depth/strength and dry port? I remember During Hailemariam days in Ethiopia where there were so many projects talked. Djibouti has built and is running second dry port without any fanfare and announcements. I do not see anyone in Somaliland or Ethiopia hanging from a tree or lamp post.

Politics and politicians are most corrupted, most disrespected everywhere in the world, but when its this open and in no time at snap of finger and also no shame, hiding or abufsicating...It shows disrespect of the people.

Again typical Africa. The constitution is only 25 years old and already Abiy is undoing it. Somali, Tigray and Afar never cared about their language being spoken in Addis Ababa. They do not have a population of more than couple of thousands there. All three are most interested in their territories to use their language, history, tradition and culture. Oromo is a different story. Abiy is doing it in Parliament, which is not right place by constitution.

Sad, but Ilhan is done. Had she fought and compromised for the sake of Somali in particular and East Africa in general, she would have had a lot of chance for success. Instead she was probably assigned or she became a fool and focused on issues that she cannot influence. Now she has among Somalis, among Democrats, most republicans, Media....that really are out to get her. Too bad everyone's wishes got dashed.

Very sad. Typical Africa where the greed for power has no red line Abiy should have either known or still deceiving Ethiopians. He was openly blaming Tigray for animosity to Egypt and Abiy started lecturing how brothers they are and the water is enough...etc Now he has his Egyptians, Eritrea and America all those who brought him to power to deal with.

Both Ethiopia and Somalia fell apart almost at the same time. The difference was that in Ethiopia the rebels were all in some contact and most of them in alliance. Aidiid was not as strong as you think. His foreign support was Mengistu of Ethiopia and those who replaced Mengistu regime had a totally different view of the map and from a totally different angle. What happened in Mugadishu with US later shows the bravery of the Nomad, but also the treachery of the leaders. One of the incidents that destroyed Somalia was the burning of farms and food storage in SWS. By this incident the entry of the new Ethiopian regime (rebels), became inevitable, acceptable by Northerners and acceptable by IC.

Middle East Eye reporting that: Buses in Istanbul transport refugees from Turkey to border with Greece for free Low monthly income and no guarantees of long-term stability push Syrian refugees in Turkey to try to reach Europe by any means..... https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/buses-istanbul-transport-refugees-turkey-border-greece-free

If Farmaajo and Co. wanted to reconstitute the Somalia State more than getting relected and have hand over the tilly, they would have worked at the very least to ratify the provisional constitution. They could have gathered representatives from all parts, keep them debate the provisional constitution or even different. 3 years was more than enough time to sort the fundamental parts. Now at the 11th hour Farmaajo wants to clear out existing regional powers, since he knows the election law will not be of any use and his reelection will be done same way as his election.

Never had respect for Egypt, a country that never ruled by its sons in 2000 years with the exception of Jamal A. Nasir. Never had any respect for Egypt that closes Gaza, either when they are told by Israel or if they want to be given money. No one can respect a society that elects a president yet year later see him being killed so barbaric way and nothing happens. Egypt has more than 100 generals, yet Sissi was not afraid to act in so Barbaric way. https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/mubarak-cautionary-tale-those-who-dare-dream-better-future

Oodweyne, Me thinks and always, that there is a back channel between the three of you. Somaliland, Puntland and Djibouti. Even as you sometimes fight or quarrel openly, it never gets out of control. That is an indication of back channel. All 3 have different ideas on what to do with the Somali people, yet non of you wants to commit too much to those ideas. Somaliland wants Somalia to be reconstituted with the exception of Somalinad and to have brotherhood with Djibouti, Kililka and NFD and to succeed where they are. Puntland wants Somalia to be reconstituted with some special formulae for Somaliland and the rest of the Somali to succeed where they are and have brotherhood. Djibouti wants Somalia to be reconstituted, with special place for Somaliland, but not separate and for the rest to succeed where they are and maintain the brotherhood. Tell me where I am wrong.

Without the agreement of all federal states the so called election law becomes illegal and unconstitutional based on the Provisional constitution. UNSC recognizes that. You can not make rules on how you yourself get elected and call it a law. Only the people through representatives (not parliament) or directly, or only the Federal states by full consensus or some formulae can enact election laws by which to elect President or parliament itself. The repeated mention of Federal states in the resolution is key background.