Old_Observer

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Everything posted by Old_Observer

  1. This is not entirely true of senator Grassley. He takes himself of an American empire leadership more than he does of Evangelism, Mormonism or the likes. He is one of more a christian-zionist if there is one as such than a Chritian.
  2. Italy simply does not have the capacity. Italy itself is a cobbled up country. As for the British, French and their boss America, yes its the way you put it. The number of priveteers, consultants, agencies, NGOs involved is astounding and they drive policies of the empires in Somalia. All an old warlord has to do to come back in control of his district is get on the good side of one of these privateers and then the whole empire from Europe or America is on his side.
  3. In Ethiopia this happened in 1916. A Prince was deposed simply by fake news that he has secretly converted to Islam. The fake news was thought of by British Ambassador in Ethiopia. After a week long meeting between Shiwa Amhara nobles and British, French and Italian Ambassadors, came up with this fake news, made the pope to excommunicate the Prince and the rest is history. The Ethiopian government of the day did not know what to do, then some wise officer went into the attic of the foreign office and dug up a file that was prepared during the Haileslassie rule. That file gave all detailed instructions what to do about Somalia, if there is a problem about irridentism and the rest was history. The military dictator folwed everything that was in that file every t and every i. Reading the steps taken, makes one sad that the late Barre destroyed a whole peoples future, still has followers who live with that blurrred vision, yet late Barre trusted Egyptian advice more than elders, generals, colonels and professionals in his own country. There was a memorial for the 116 Cubans that died in the war on Ethiopias side, and the investigative article was written in that regard. To the new SNM generation: Ethiopian policy at the time was to weaken Somalia, but not enough for you to achieve victory. This was from king haileslassie file. Same policy the Egyptians followed in Eritrea. SSDF was first to find out this policy and then SNM, who simply ignored that part of Ethiopian policy objectives. Djibouti was one of the biggest undoing of late Barre and he did not know it. Too arrogant by numbers of the O versus the one in Djibouti.
  4. The Saudis are one level up from Ethiopia, 10000 times wealthier and this is deep internal matter. Not easy. The old generation royals would have made gesture to Ethiopia, but not the young ones.
  5. galbeedi, Al Amoudi is not from the royal family. Born and grew up in Ethiopia. Made start in construction when Saudi were making transition from hamlets and tents to villas and palaces then went to oil business outside Saudi Arabia. Biggest foreign investor in Sweden. He also had in Libya. In Ethiopia has gold mine and one of the largest cement plants, the rest is factories through out the country. You truly and sincerely buy the corruption staff?
  6. If Somalia can fast track the one man one vote and have decent parliament instead of the one appointed by elders, warlors, friends etc Qatar has a key role that can be easily filled by Somalia - food Qatar is surviving by Turkey and Iran for now, but Somalia can provide that with closed eyes, no sweat. They are starting in Sudan, but this could be perfect time. Expect increased security risk from UAE Saudis. Somalia can reduce security risk by being suplier of food to the Gulf. There is nothing to make one think twice than if you are the bread provider. Turkey can help with modern industrial scale farms.
  7. I think the case is so deep behind the scenes no pblic statements, but few trips between Saudi and Ethiopia happened couple of weeks into the arrest. Even though most of his money is from Sweden, Libya and Ethiopia, the guy is involved in few major things: In Ethiopia has enemies in Oromo/Amhara same as regime. Some third world typical idiot Ethiopian opposition diaspora actually celebrated. They are convinced that his mother is Tigray. Amazing. Clinton foundation had made about 10 million from him - was on behalf of Ethiopia mostly Saudi Star for food security could have been strictly with the deposed prince that making him part of the Royals scuffle Egypt could have asked the Saudis to hold him, since pressuring the Ethiopian government It may even have something to do with Ghelleh and UAE many things.
  8. Its looking more like Saudi Ethiopia case than a strictly Saudi case. Its not known what Saudi Arabia wants from Ethiopia other than securing Saudi Star the food production agri-business. Maybe the overthrown Royals do not want to transfer Saudi Star to the new group. Or could be favour to Egypt and in Ethiopia Oromo. New York Times article sheds some light: http://www.ethiomedia.com/1000dir/where-is-al-amoudi.html
  9. Of all these instituions and countries, I trust Italy to have best intentions. Berlusconi was once asked why all Italian colonies in shambles, Albania, Libya, Eritrea and Somalia and his answer was he wished he had the capacity to support at least one of them. Italy have no axe to grind maybe business companies interest but not much.
  10. Thanks. These Gulf states conduct themselves by pressuring everybody to take sides 1st openly and if that fails by visits. The Qatari maybe little better but the Saudis are worst and UAE/Qatar are similar. They have been to Ethiopia already few times, not for Ethiopia, but African union and ambassadors.
  11. Oodweyne, A bit off topic. But talking about DP boss, Let us know when evrything has started and you folks are happy with the progress. I will personaly campaign against this Bedewi for his "humanizing" view on the people of Djibouti. I am too small of a man to know what Ghelleh will do to him, but I can do my bit to shame those who treat this Bedew with any semblance of respect. He would not know what shame is anyway.
  12. Tigray is the last one to need article 39. No Tigray No Ethiopia that is accepted even by the most ardent Tigray hating groups. Not only domino effect, but there are certain regions that wanted to give federal system a chance. If Article 39 is to be used it will be the Somali and Afar in that order. Not there yet not even close. This was not a discussion initiated by Tigray, Somali or Afar. Its just an Oromo and Amhara rumour who do not know or care what other regions think. It backfired big time and now those who started the rumour have to extinguish it and is double trouble. The most important contentious point now is expanding EPRDF. In addition to day to day activities of government and also electing PM or keeping PM on current status and let the Deputy PM get priority and experience.
  13. But in my view very dangerous one. The president should not have gone, instead foreign minister should have gone or if higher level was requested by Qatar then prime minister. This is very significant for many reasons: 1. If Erdogan can come to Mogadishu any one can and should very important in normalizing the city 2. When two of your friends are fighting about things beyond your control appearance of inbalance is bad. At least outwardly treat both equally. If PM went to one should be PM to the other one 3. It shows this is government and not collection of desparate individuals who do not trust each other. It would not be unfair for PM or speaker to be suspicious of president and would not be unfair for speaker or president to be suspicious of PM in his trip. Foreign minister should always be there and also foreign minister alone should be first try. 4. There is no mechanism now to share detailed information, because the president and prime minister are talking to world leaders in what looks like individual. The visits to Djibouti by Farmaajo and Bixi were full of rumours.
  14. Wish you all the best, but I am sure you do not mean the "humanizing" "civilizing" by the Bedewi. Our Mr. Gheulleh will never forget this one. I am sure he has placed something on his desk to remind himself a perfect response to this Bedew at the right time and in the right place. Its coming knowing how Ghelle operates.
  15. The more military bases all around the better for Ethiopia in the short term. Its a source of income. Let me copy from the other thread what I had replied to you regarding military bases: As for military bases, from Ethiopias stand point primarily its Somalilands choice but regardless who they choose its always a good source of income to Ethiopia. Nobody in all of East Africa has set up shop that does not have arrangement with Ethiopia, even when countries send peace keepers to South Sudan whether Europeans, Japanese, Chinese, Americans, Russians all have arrangement with Ethiopia. All the bases in Djibouti even the French have arrangement with Ethiopia and they pay money for it. What I said was if Somalia was talking about sovereinity then UAE military base would be the highest question of sovereinity more than port services, but SFG did not raise this issue as important. That was my point. As for the port agreement here is the main point where all my views are influenced by: 1. Berbera has more economic benefits to Kilil even much bigger than the Djibouti Ethiopia line 2. It does not affect the Djibouti Ethiopia agreement in anyway it actually complements it 3. I would not have liked Ethiopia to own share, simply for the irridentists use in political hate campaign on Ethiopia, but Ethiopia also cannot use Berbera significantly without having ownership. That is the deal with Djibouti done some 20 years ago. 4. If similar deal was done with Puntland would even have most impact on Kilil economy and development since the transaction will affect the whole kilil from south to north. I hope you are now clear as to the basis on how I Tigray see these commercial and the base issue separately. For me they are completely separate. For UAE and Somailand maybe connected or related. I am absolutely sure UAE has made arrangements with Ethiopia for its military base plans as did all countries that have bases in Djibouti or Somalia. I am also not that influenced or affected by the sovereinity issue of the port agreement. I see some hipocrisy there, plus something extra to prevent Puntland. But that is Politics in Somalia. Has been like that since 90s, nothing new. That is one reason Kismayu has been out of development at least since 2006 where there was opportuity that could have helped with peace and development in the area. The Berbera port agreement as far as I am concerned is commercial. I understand you feel its Ethiopian conspiracy to prevent Somalia from reconsituting itself, to keep Somalia disunited, conflicting, fighting etc, that is your view. Mine is everything opposite.
  16. You see. You get easily confused since you see verything from America or Ethiopia. As for military bases, from Ethiopias stand point primarily its Somalilands choice but regardless who they choose its always a good source of income to Ethiopia. Nobody in all of East Africa has set up shop that does not have arrangement with Ethiopia, even when countries send peace keepers to South Sudan whether Europeans, Japanese, Chinese, Americans, Russians all have arrangement with Ethiopia. All the bases in Djibouti even the French have arrangement with Ethiopia and they pay money for it. What I said was if Somalia was talking about sovereinity then UAE military base would be the highest question of sovereinity more than port services, but SFG did not raise this issue as important. That was my point. I suggest you stop and think in a wider way than America or Ethiopia. These are countries with their day in the sun, but not forever. So I would suggest start from a Somali perspective instead of Tigray and then only as second thought the Somali. Not helpful. BTW if the Bedewin thing is bothering you please ignore it. For me there is nothing more Bedewi thinking than what UAE person from DP said 'They civilized Djibouti people actually even worst humanized. Only a Bedewi cultured can say that. Its my hope and I am confident that in due time Ghelleh will respond to that and humanize school this Bedewi.
  17. I am convinced that UAE thought can intimidate Ghelleh and use Somaliland as threat. They knew for sure they cannot put light between Djibouti and Ethiopia even if they had offered more shares. The military base is the worst threat of sovereignity to Somalia, that Somalia is not even raising, but that is the only and best tool for Somaliland to get something out of all the port issue. On the other hand its also concerning that the SFG thought can get some mileage out of this and will be making a big mistake. Should have made short and precise work of it and move on. Whenever I see Somalis arguing in terms of America, Ethiopia, UAE, Turkey, Qatar...and not Farmaajo, Bixi..etc they are hiding something and its all downhill, nothing fruitful comes out since do not address each other.
  18. Very sad. From what I have seen in Ethiopia is that there are some 20-30 minute talks of some historical incidents even conferences and festivities of unrelated gathering. This is done even if there is no agreement in what it means, like menelik, Tedros etc and like the famine of 1974 and a bigger one in 1984. It keeps memory and makes people think as relates to current situation. Young people in Ethiopia are already asking what was the need for Ethnic federalism.
  19. All parliaments are like that even in the western countries example: Britain 1. There are MPs more american than the Americans 2. There are MPs who do not see life outside EU 3. There are MPs who work on basis that British empire exists etc. In my view, and galbeedi pointed out they are no busy, is the government is not keeping parliament busy with worthwhile agenda. Have parliamenary committee go to regions and investigate issues and report to parliament this will expose warlord politics in some regions that hidden now since all talk is about chairs, chairs that have been moving in circles. Government does not seem to have grand agenda that will keep country focused. Seems like most governments these days is facebook and Mogadishu tea shops driven. If the government is not dedicated enough, such condition is perfect opportunity to avoid the most important questions, such as: What is the progress visavis alshabab? What is the progress of this or that region? What is the progress with the constitution work? Suldaanka, Irridentists like galbeedi are giving Ethiopia a break this time, or they think Ethiopia is too busy at home with its own problems.
  20. Number of refugees in Ethiopia hits record high Published on 16.03.2018 à 16h21 by APA News The number of refugees and asylum seekers in Ethiopia has hit a record over 900,000, as of the end of last month.“Ethiopia is host to the second largest refugee population in Africa, sheltering mre than 909,301 registered refugees and asylum seekers, as of 28 February 2018,” the UNHCR announced on Friday in a statement. In the first two months of 2018, 15,097 refugees arrived in Ethiopia, including 7,202 in February. They include more than 10,700 from South Sudan, and more than 3,700 from Eritrea. Children below the age of 18 represent 56 percent of the total refugees. Registered refugees from South Sudan are 435,437, Somalia 254, 289, Eritrea 166,769, Sudanese 44,997, Yemen 1,786 and other nationalities 6,023. The UN refugee agency has also announced it is facing a funding gap of $289 million for its operation in Ethiopia for the year 2018. So far, it has secured $38 million funding out of the requested $335.8 million for its operations in the Horn of Africa nation. Even though the country shelters more than 900,000 refugees, Ethiopian official sources have said it will maintain its open door policy towards refugees, and continue to receive new arrivals from f its neighbours, notably from South Sudan, Somalia, Eritrea, Sudan and Yemen. Tags : APA
  21. Typical of Empire mentality. Having the pro-consul Ambassador manage Somalia. Throw some money at them and shuffle the local officials. Even though each was speaking from their own interest, the witnesses exposed a lot of truth. They seem to also be knowledgeable about the people and way of life. If there was no conflict in America between Pro and anti Trump, none of this would have come out in an open hearing.
  22. I think so. Being physically alive when death is all around you is survival. Everything is relative. A Somali in London may be unhappy with his car or house, but somebody in the Bay will be unhappy if Shabab affected his life.
  23. If you mean the one in Qebridaxar it was built by kilil money, no federal money at all. The whole objective is: Self reliance gives you power, influence and earns you respect, since everyone notices you can survive on your own if the worst happens. Food security, food self sufficiency and mitigation of this never ending draughts is now top on the agenda number 2 is becoming center of interaction of whole area. have some labour intensive factories since the population is growing faster than any economic boom can keep up with... Link Amahara to Somalia where both pay you for the job. be a transport hub and stations on all the highways, branch offices of all companies, interpreters between Djibouti, Somalia even north east kenya. No expectation that someone from Mogadishu will reach faster to Jigjiga than an Amhara from border of Sudan when you are in an emergency. Currently the Amhara will reach a 100 times faster and more qualitatively.
  24. They retired 30,000 (Tigray and Agew/Afar) all in one go frm the military 20 years ago and have been working at it.