Old_Observer

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Everything posted by Old_Observer

  1. With draught becoming severe every time worst than last this is dangerous. The culture might have helped to survive past centuries or even decades, but there is a lot of people displaced through out the country in million more and tolerating it is dangerous.
  2. EPRDF central council will be meeting tomorrow also to go over report of Executive council on how the previously agreed reform steps were accomplished in each regional party. galbeedi, Who ever will be selected or elected has to come shining in these reports. Otherwise how is the EPRDF supposed to tell the people to acccept this or that leader. You know how left leaning parties operate. remember the 5 year plans that used to kill or reseract leaders. Remember the issue of between Somali-Oromo killings: First few days the Oromo went all out, pulled all stops and many people thought they could be victims. Then they over used it. Even preventing Oromos returning to Somali kilil which is extreme. Now the tables have turned. The Oromo police were at fault, The Somali kilil acted nobly, The Somali kilil followed up with even more noble plan for the displaced Somali and Oromo. Now the Oromo are stuck. Cannot be reasonable since they used it to rise their folks, cannot continue since even leaders can be put in jail by federal government. That is one of the biggest issues in the meeting. All Ethiopians want to know, what happened, who is responsible for suffering of hundreds of thousands people, what steps have been taken to punish responsible and prevent for future. Please advice your Oromo friends how to navigate to Arat Killo Palace over dead poor folks.
  3. That is true, everything is politics these days. No these Yemeni are from the South. Isn't it amazing that horn of Africa Moslems are most tolerant to any one. Except as you said the political ones. There are some Shiia districts in Sudan. The Gulf folks tried to stir trouble by encouraging some hooligans to close the Shiia cultural centre, library etc. The government immediately intervened arrested and severly punished the hooligans the Shabab kind and the whole thing died fast. The people generally are modest and tolerant to differences.
  4. How much cheaper is it? Example: apartment in crowded area vegetables meat clothing electricity water Electricity and water is most expensive in Djibouti, if not mistaken than all of Africa.
  5. "Amr Mozeb told the officer at the consulate his family can't stay in Djibouti. They're running out of money. He says the consular officer suggested moving them to Somaliland, which is cheaper. " These are Yemeni Americans stranded by travel ban. https://www.npr.org/2018/03/23/596356963/how-american-citizens-are-trapped-in-djibouti
  6. galbeedi, They are not in the room, but what if everybody in the room is worried about them more than about those in the room? Ever given it a thought? Some cold hard facts for you with no politics no explanation: 1. take a look at map of Ethiopia, what do you see. Focus on Somali and Afar kilils forget the Amhara, Tigray, Oromo and the rest for a moment. Do you see that if the Somali and Afar are not happy its the end of Ethiopia more than if the Amhara or Oromo are unhappy? NO then you have wrong glasses YES then how do you keep them happy while not in the room is the key. You probably know as much as I do that USA may want to use Oromo for pressure, but not for power.
  7. If that is the case, they are telling at best half the story. Demeqe Mekonen Hussien being the fall back guy for everybody does not need one to be Sublaha analyst. He is the Deputy Prime minister, so its normal the deputy takes over isn't that generally true everywhere whether vice president, Deputy PM, deputy commander etc. But they are not even there yet. Every body will sweat and speculate for some time until each side is done the ground work.
  8. I am not comparing them in terms of the societies. I am only comparing the states whether provinces or countries. Having the same language, ancestry, faith, general culture did not bring peace and unity. It can only help in foundation, but not help to plan future. What ever the solution is to the Somaliland case, has to be thought, agreed, implemented by Somali people themselves. Any push or pull from outside will be very detructive for anyone. The only push or pull can only be on the Somali people doing it as peacefully as possible. Never forget 100 years is about 4-5 generations. Its already more than one generation that has grown in this limbo situation. Reember also that Eritrea and Ethiopia for the most part are same people at least the northern Ethiopia.
  9. galbeedi, trying to create facebook facts on the ground/internet. They are not even there yet. Don't put your Oromo folks in an intractable situation. You pushing them to die for Abiy now or what?
  10. East African ministers work to end Somalia's refugee crisis Friday March 23, 2018 Security ministers drawn from Eastern Africa region on Thursday renewed support for far-reaching interventions aimed at ending the refugee crisis in Somalia. The Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) ministers who met in Nairobi to review progress in the implementation of a regional pact on finding durable solution to the refugee crisis in Somalia vowed to mobilize resources and political capital to realize that goal. Kenya's Cabinet Secretary for Internal Security Fred Matiangi stressed that robust financing, partnerships and political goodwill is key to sustaining progress achieved in reducing the suffering of an estimated 900,000 Somalia refugees scattered in the region. "I'm confident that with concerted relentless efforts, we will eventually meet all our pledges and ultimately deliver our promise for durable solution to Somali refugees," said Matiangi in a speech read on his behalf by the Chief Administrative Secretary in the Interior Ministry Patrick Ole Ntutu. The security ministers were joined by representatives of UN and multilateral lending agencies to review progress in the implementation of Nairobi Declaration and Action Plan adopted by Heads of State from the region in March last year to find long-term solution to refugee crisis in Somalia Matiangi hailed progress that has been achieved since the adoption of the regional pact to end the refugee challenge in Somalia that has worsened against a backdrop of clan based skirmishes, terrorism and climatic shocks. "It is gratifying to note that remarkable progress has been registered over the past one year towards realization of the objectives of the Nairobi Declaration and comprehensive plan of Action," Matiangi said. "We commend the Federal Government of Somalia for measures taken to create conditions for safe, sustainable and voluntary return of refugees," he added. Matiangi noted that restoration of civil authority, economic recovery reconciliation and response to natural disasters has improved the plight of Somalia refugees. He reiterated Kenya's commitment to transforming the lives of an estimated 450,000 Somalia refugees living in the country through provision of basic education, health, vocational skills and employment. Pan African blocs have rallied behind home-grown solution to Somalia refugee crisis that has undermined stability and development in a significant portion of the continent. Mahboub Maalim, the Executive Secretary of Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), noted that a holistic approach that combines humanitarian aid, provision of social services and security has enhanced the capacity of Somalia refugees to rebuild their lives.
  11. That is noble and more good for you than it is to him. What I think happened is he might have spoken like most Africans at a time of difficulty and confusing situation.
  12. That is very true, but the other direction also happens to be true: SNM always knew that Ethiopia would not prefer the Somaliland separation which can have domino effect first to Somalia and then to Ethiopia and Djibouti. What is changed now is that Ethiopia has this conviction and policy that goes: What is the point of staying together by force, simply to be together poor and backward. Its more expensive to keep things by force. Its more economical and humaine and longer lasting to manage separation and its consequences. Ethiopia applied this to herself, Sudan applied this to herself and if Somalis applied this bythemselves (that is the key by themselves) it will be better to manage. Ethiopia encouraging it will never bring peace or will not last long. That is the key. Mengistu supported South Sudan, Eritrea supported south Sudan, but not Ethiopia. Ethiopia supported whatever the Sudanese chose to do. The northern told the Ethiopians that Sudan have had enough with this problem, its source of misery for everybody, its source for foreign interference..etc.
  13. You know that Ethiopia has made a complete change of direction after war with Eritrea. Kenya is wealthier than Ethiopia, but junior in its alliance with Ethiopia. Somalia has also made big change. There is more Somalis now who are convinced that the greater Somalia project is untimely and no economic, cultural, military to support this project. What MOI is talking about is greater somalia project. The situation has dramatically changed everywhere, but some of us are stuck in the old ways of thinking.
  14. People and countries have fought for 200 years for or about Suez Canal. Isn' there more economical more peaceful more prosperous alternative. Here are some alternatives: 1. Russia and Iran build a waterway from Persian gulf to Caspian sea, price tag 10 billion time it takes 6 years: benefits Russia avoids black sea, mediteranean as only option, Iran brings russia to have something risk share, China avoids the empire killer region of middle east losers: Egypt, Israel, USA, Britain, France.. 2. Israel to build a Canal from Israel/Jordan to Mediteranean price tag 10/17 Billion time it takes 2 years This would start war by Egypt unless Israel and Egypt have ownership in both old and new Canals. Everybody gains but no change for East/Horn Africa and no change for turkey/blacksea Loser: Only egypt winner: Saudi, Jordan, Israel 3. Build extensive rail roads criss crossing Africa and eliminate bottle necks China building railroad Sudan to Chad and if libya gets act together to Mediteranean China building railroads Djibouti to deep Africa and Somalia to deep Africa Downside: Railroads need complete security, impossible to get in Africa where a derailment cost weeks and months 4. Bridge between Djibouti and Yemen 14km 17 billion feasibility done even plans ready Qatar and UAE competing to build this road link Asia Africa. Was hot one time and almost to start. Maybe Meles and Abdella Saleh lost lives this as one factor. Loser: Egypt USA poured cold water on it.
  15. This is work done when there is relative or total peace. Recruiting intelligence people in a hurry and in unstable conditions is very dangerous. You could be paying to train and give access to opponents very easily. But if he thinks is the right time, all success to him and his government.
  16. Which country is easiest for regime change? Ethiopia Somalia/Somaliland Djibouti Eritrea Sudan South Sudan Kenya Uganda There has to be a regime change somewhere, things cannt go on like this for long. America wants regime change in Ethiopia, Djibouti both since was not successful to separate the two and make them act against each other, so both have to go. China wants regime change in Eritrea to eliminate the main trigger that can be used by America against Djibouti and Sudan, the two key countries.
  17. Djibouti Is Dangerously Becoming a Trigger for Transregional Destabilization By Andrew Korybko Global Research, March 09, 2018 Oriental Review 8 March 2018 The delicate balance of power in the Horn of Africa might soon be broken by the developing situation inside of Djibouti surrounding the future ownership of its main port, with the possible American-Emirati reaction to this potentially serving as a trigger for militarily activating the complex transregional alliance system that’s formed in this part of the world over the past couple of years. Making A Mountain Out Of A Molehill The tiny state of Djibouti is once again making global headlines after its government ended a contract with an Emirati port operator late last month that was in control of the country’s most important container terminal. The move followed a multi-year dispute that culminated in what Abu Dhabi decried as an “illegal seizure” of its asset, but which the national authorities said was a necessary action to end the stalemate. This seemingly insignificant commercial spat would have remained irrelevant to international politics had the US not decided to weigh in earlier this week in supporting its Emirati ally. Reuters reported that the top America military official in Africa, Marine General Thomas Waldhauser, responded to speculation in Congress that Djibouti was supposedly planning to “give [the port] to China as a gift” by ominously warning that “If the Chinese took over that port, then the consequences could be significant”. Republican Representative Bradley Byrne went even further by speculating that “If this was an illegal seizure of that port, what is to say that government wouldn’t illegally terminate our lease before its term is up?” These statements have thus turned an ordinarily uneventful dispute that’s destined for the Court of International Arbitration into a full-fledged geopolitical scandal. Djibouti’s Transregional Dimensions Djibouti is of global importance because of its location at the Bab el Mandeb strait that connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and serves as the maritime transit location between Europe and Asia. Apart from the US, China, France, Italy, Japan, and soon even Saudi Arabia all have bases in the country, with India being able to utilize America’s by means of the summer 2016 LEMOA deal that gives each country access to the other’s military facilities on a case-by-case “logistics” basis. Furthermore, Djibouti is the terminal location for the Djibouti-Addis Ababa Railway (DAAR) that basically functions as “China’s CPEC” or the Horn of Africa Silk Road, thus explaining one of the unstated strategic reasons why Beijing chose the country for hosting its first-ever overseas military base. Ethiopia, however, is at the center of a transregional alliance system that’s sprung up in the area over the past couple of years as a result of its ambitious efforts to construct the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile River that provides most of the more famous Nile’s water. The balance of forces has seen Ethiopia band together with Sudan while Egypt – which claims that GERD will adversely affect its water supplies and therefore make it strategically dependent on Ethiopia – has sought out Addis Ababa’s nemesis, Eritrea. Moreover, the Gulf Cold War has expanded to the region, with Qatar siding more closely with Ethiopia and the UAE partnering with Eritrea, in which it has a military facility that it uses in connection with the War on Yemen. Saudi Arabia is impartial because it has military relations with Eritrea but agricultural ones with Ethiopia, even though its Egyptian partner (which practically functions as a subordinate or client state at this point) wishes that it took a stronger stand against Addis Ababa. Djibouti’s situation is much more complex than any of these parties’ because it has close relations with each of the countries that have or will have military bases within its territory, and it had previously enjoyed positive relations with the UAE prior to the port dispute. Qatar used to station peacekeepers along the Djiboutian-Eritrean border since their brief 2008 border conflict but withdrew them last summer after both states sided with Saudi Arabia in the Gulf Cold War. Approaching The Breaking Point Even though Djibouti has historically harbored suspicions of much larger Ethiopia’s intentions, especially since it became landlocked following Eritrea’s 1993 independence, its fears have been allayed ever since China got involved in DAAR and apparently convinced it that Addis Ababa has no interest in behaving aggressively towards the de-facto city-state so long as its Silk Road access to the People’s Republic is ensured. In fact, the “African CPEC” did more for building trust between these two lopsided countries than anything else could have ever done, though it wasn’t a solution for regional stability in the geopolitical sense, as is evidently seen by the transregional alliance system that was earlier described. In fact, the structural instability that now characterizes the Horn of Africa might reach a breaking point with the potential destabilization of Djibouti that might be brought about if the US and its Emirati ally join forces in pressuring this tiny country to reverse its takeover of the disputed port. Washington is already hinting that it might consider this to be a ‘national security threat’ to its interests, while Abu Dhabi is alleging that what happened is no different than the strong armed robbery of one of its most prized global assets. The groundwork has now been established for these two countries to cooperate in making Djibouti pay for what it did. Policy Toolkit The reason why this has any importance to the outside world is because it may lead to the Horn of Africa becoming a 21st-century version of the pre-World War I Balkans in the sense that a far-reaching alliance network could once again be on the brink of being militarily activated due to an unexpected and seemingly insignificant event. The two most realistic and potentially interconnected options that the US-UAE “alliance within an alliance” have at their disposal for use against Djibouti suggest that a larger conflict could easily explode by miscalculation alone, to say nothing of Machiavellian intent, thus making the historical-regional comparison an apt one: Eritrean Border Skirmish: The UAE’s Eritrean underling already has a preexisting border disagreement with Djibouti, and it wouldn’t be difficult for the wealthy patron state to tempt its impoverished client to make a move against Abu Dhabi’s new regional adversary. Color Revolution: Djibouti was briefly rocked by pro-Islamist Color Revolution unrest at the end of 2015 that was quickly quelled by the authorities, though there’s no saying that such a scenario couldn’t be “encouraged” to repeat itself in the near future as “phase one” of an American pressure campaign. Hybrid War: The merging of conventional Eritrean aggression, Asmara’s asymmetrical use of the Al Shabaab terrorist group that the UNSC sanctioned the country for supporting, and American-backed Color Revolution unrest in the urban center would constitute a classic Hybrid War in the Horn of Africa. Realistic Responses Scenario forecasting is a difficult art so it’s with a grain of salt that one should approach this exercise, though nevertheless understanding the utility that it has in allowing one to envision the most likely responses to each of the two primary options that the US and UAE have for use against Djibouti: The Second African World War: Eritrean aggression against Djibouti could prompt Ethiopia and Sudan to take action against it, thereby drawing in Asmara’s Egyptian ally and its GCC partners, all of which might create a situation that compels the US and China to intervene at different stages and in varying capacities to uncertain ends. An Ethiopian Collapse: Ethiopia is in the throes of its second state of emergency in just as many years, and the Color Revolution blockage of DAAR might be all that’s needed to provoke the Oromo into reviving their Hybrid War campaign and possibly pushing the country past the edge of collapse. Pro-Beijing Blowback The American-Emirati destabilization of Djibouti might intentionally or unwittingly produce consequences that endanger China’s interests in the Horn of Africa, but there’s also the chance that the blowback that they produce conversely strengthens Beijing’s role in this region instead: The People’s Republic And Peacekeeping: So long as China can avoid the “mission creep” scenario that the US is pushing it towards, it might be able to manage any Eritrean-Djiboutian border tensions (and possibly others) through a peacekeeping mission like the one that it proposed last summer, therefore stabilizing the region. Diplomacy And Deal-Making: China is the best suited out of any country to mediate between all conflicting parties within the region, especially if it commits peacekeepers to the cause, and this might see its diplomacy producing the Silk Road fruit of more “win-win” deals that sustain the peace that its soldiers first attained. Peace Isn’t Possible Without The People’s Republic: The aggregate consequences of China’s military and diplomatic efforts at obtaining, securing, and advancing peace in the Horn of Africa could enable Beijing to become a stabilizing force in one of the world’s most unstable regions and consequently assist its integration into the Multipolar World Order. Concluding Thoughts The latest developments in the tiny Horn of Africa country of Djibouti might seem uninteresting for most outside observers, but upon closer examination of the broader strategic dynamics at play and the delicate balance of power between the two transregional alliances there, it becomes apparent that these unresolved and escalating events might serve as a catalyst for a larger conflict. At the risk of sounding cliché, the “stage is set” and all of the local actors are ready – and almost eager, one could argue – to “play their role” in the upcoming “drama”, with only China having any realistic chance of stabilizing the situation before it gets out of control. That said, China must also remain cognizant of the US’ desire to trap it in the quagmire of “mission creep” as a proxy means of “containing” its influence in Africa, and Beijing’s relatively ‘conservative” decision makers aren’t predisposed to overtly intervening in other countries’ affairs, though the recent case of Myanmar stands out as a notable exception and might portend a change in policy. In any case, it’s clear to see that the destabilization of Djibouti will inevitably have negative consequences for China’s regional and Silk Road interests, thereby making the most recent developments yet another example of how the US-Chinese proxy struggle is rapidly reaching every corner of the world. * Andrew Korybko is an American Moscow-based political analyst specializing in the relationship between the US strategy in Afro-Eurasia, China’s One Belt One Road global vision of New Silk Road connectivity, and Hybrid Warfare.
  18. I think UAE has taken over the inside track to USA and this young dictator is in trouble. Has no option but to empty his pockets and simply gift it to Trump.
  19. That is the main target of the Americans. Africa is being taken over by Chinese who have a different tack than America or Europeans generally. Never heard a Chinese who says, "I am here to civilize you". It was shocking for Americans to see people in Ethiopia learning Mandarin in some slums.
  20. galbeedi, You are finding Ethiopian peoples nationalities very confusing. What ever you read conflicts to what you have been told in the past. Ask yourself this question. How come the Hareri in the middle of Somali country have language closest to the Tigray and same root language with Tigray? So much so that the Hareri tried to use latin alphabets, but found it not economical, not easy to make spelling discipline and not satisfying sounds after so many years went back to Geez (as latin for europeans)? As per Oromo its themselves that took short cut disregarding what they agreed or what is right. not much to it. Your bias is that Tigray in current edition are makers of Somaliland. It could not be further from truth. Both areas have suffered tremendeously in the 80s. Tigray lost million people to famine with regime in Ethiopia preventing access trying to make them kneel down. Experience shapes peoples thoughts more than histrionics that most can be invented for moments.
  21. Two human rights groups have given the government of French President Emmanuel Macron two months to end its arms exports to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which are involved in a devastating three-year-old conflict in Yemen, or face legal proceedings. Legal non-governmental organization Droit Solidarite and Aser, which specializes in armament issues, argue that France is breaking international law by providing weapons for the Saudi-led aggression against war-ravaged Yemen and subsequently committing war crimes there. “France is not respecting its international commitments,” Aser’s president, Benoit Muracciole, told Reuters. Lawyers acting for the two NGOs have already posted a letter to the office of Prime Minister Edouard Phillipe demanding the export licenses to be suspended. Aser and Droit Solidarite will take their case to France’s highest legal authority, known as the Conseil d’Etat, in case the Paris government fails to meet their deadline. “We will go to the Council of State from May 1 if there is an explicit or implicit refusal of the government to respond,” Muracciole pointed out. The action comes as Norway has suspended arms exports to the United Arab Emirates.
  22. http://www.presstv.com/Detail/2018/03/22/556272/Saudi-Pentagon-US-bin-Salman-Mattis-Yemen “As you discussed with President (Donald) Trump on Tuesday, we must also reinvigorate urgent efforts to seek a peaceful resolution to the civil war in Yemen and we support you in this regard,” the US defense secretary told his Saudi counterpart. “We are going to end this war; that is the bottom line. And we are going to end it on positive terms for the people of Yemen but also security for the nations in the peninsula,” Mattis added.
  23. The Somali government, together with the EU and IOM has launched an initiative to support returnee migrants as they integrate back into their country of origin. The Somali government, the European Union and the International Organization for Migration have launched an initiative to support the reintegration of returnee migrants stranded in third countries. The project is called "Reintegration Facility" and is funded by the EU. It will help 1,000 Ethiopians to return home from Somalia. "Helping young Somalis to return home in safety after often horrific migration experiences and then to settle back and contribute to their communities … lies at the heart of this program," said Mariam Yassin, Special Envoy for Migrants' and Children's Rights in the Somali government. _____________________________________________________________________________ The topic makes look like Somalis returning to the Republic. NO these are Ethiopians most likely from Puntland or Somaliland since no way to Yemen now stranded. _____________________________________________________________________________ Some of you that are worried the Ethiopians are invading Somalia, you have 1000 less now. lol
  24. Next no third world should buy apple products or Samsung since are major privacy risk and Europe will buy japanese and european only. Apple should lobby president trump not to do this.
  25. This man Amin Amir is just world class. One can see his bias, but still admire and appreciate. What took so long for MPs blaming accusing each other on the DP world issue? This sadly looks like moving the parliamentary chairs around and a few weeks wasted on this.