What I am afraid happening is most likely an Asian company will thake the contract, which means you have the French, British and American the worst group/combination stirring trouble. Even if you give it to American company the British Dutch or French company can finance a group of people to stirr trouble.

maakhiri, This oil has killed many regimes in Ethiopia. It was found and contracted to Standard oil of new Jersey (Exxon) 20 years before oil was ever found in Saudi Arabia. ONLF got paid 4 million dollars to disrupt a singaporean company that had chinese workers some years ago The British overthrew Ethiopian prince who contracted it to Exxon and brought Haileslassie who gave it to British Petroleum that was Persian British ..Company. The time this happaned oil was being drilled only in Iran, the Russians were just starting. Oil is dangerous business. I wish the Ethiopians wait until most of the kilil population is settled, farming as well as pastoral on the side, have some factories which is all in the works.

galbeedi, Good idea, but lets exchange first what we know about Ethiopia: 1. Only Afar and Somali kilil are closest to single Ethnic kilils, it makes it easier to speak as 1 unit no risk of spliting in these kilils. Somali or Afar are not at risk of spliting by clans or tribes inside them. Will stay together. 2. Tigray (4) and Benshangul Gumuz (3) are multi Ethnic, but the risk of spliting is very low so these two also can be dealt with as units 3. Amhara (5) is multi Ethnic and the risk of spliting is high depending on how deep problems are. Actually one province (zone) is Oromo Zone inside Amhara kilil. 4. Oromia is generally speaking one Ethnic, but has about 6 million Amara, 1.5 million Gurage and the Oromo itself is not cohesive enough has never lived in one administration or language until 20 years ago You need 2 or more generations to create cohesiveness that can withstand trouble times. Lets here yours on this. 5. South has more than 50 Ethnic, but believe it or not can stay together with the exception of Gurage that may want to be with Amhara ethnic. 6. Gambella can stay together and weather the storm. There is a big number of Amhara and Tigray as well. 7. Poor Hareri would prefer the Somali, but are sarounded by Oromo, so no choice. Their normal choice would have been Somali, Afar, Tigray in that order. 8. No big religious problem, if there is at all will be in Oromo, the rest are minimal to none with religious problems Remember: There is no society in the world that is expected to be one unit more than the Somali. One faith, one Ethnic, one language (generally speaking can understand each other from all parts even with dialects). But the fact is the unexpected. So never go by the general talk that the Tigray or Oromo or Amhara are one. No assumptions or expectations to be one. In their case some are even multi-ethnic Then we can see the options if we have fairly common understanding on current conditions.

I hope the ex-president did not go in person. He might have sent one of his assistants or driver. It would only be a humiliation if he went in person and told them he is ex president. Or its acase fwhere a lowly officer was on duty. Don't forget you need a consul general or ambassador to make exception. Nobody else can make exception for anyone against Trump. I think US consulates are intimidated to follow to letter Trumps orders, could be a career killer for some officer consular worker to violate the Trump orders.

galbeedi, Your anti Xabeshi or anti Tigray or anti Tigray AI tirade and frastration aside, did you make any sense of the options? I gave the basis upon which you select your options. It is very simple and clear. You can take a look again. If there is war you can take this or that option based on what your strength and weakness is. Its that simple, nothing complicated. I know how frastraing it is for you having predicted in few days the Oromo would take over Ethiopia or Ethiopia would fall apart and galbeedi the nationalist Somali/Oromo would come to pick up the peieces of the kilil. When you were away for some time, I thought you went to Oromo country to e the most important consultant.

I don't think solar panels are cheap when they reach Africa, but the government can regulate the electricity even private companies. That is what the western countries did in beginning. Some were limited to only 12 percent profit plus cost.

Thank you Mooge. I had read it a while ago that is why the pictures immediately associated with that war. Unfortunately the Eritreans were the only ones of Italian colonies that fought in every Italian colony including Libya. They were the ones who entered Tripoli fighting against Libya nationalists. They also fought at battle of Adwa, and king menelik cut one hand one foot of the Eritreans that were captured. For the captured Italians minelik had a mule or horse for each and servants.

lol Dahireeto, I don't think al these peoples will survive then with same language or culture or tribe. A lot will disappear by joining others and new identity maybe new language etc. This will happen faster than the natural split. On the other hand if you really work at it few really really powerful detonations in the right places can change the crack and split shape. All hope is not lost.

I do not know why, but I immediately associated the men with the fight against Italy where their fishing boats with a gun was all they had to face an armada of cannons, heavy machine guns etc. For some reason that is the image I associated the old pictures with.

Cut that down by 2/3rd for maakihiri1 sake. 100 meter is more than enough to start shipping trafic.

I think I guess what you have in mind. There is more of the same in the north, more than the south east area you have in mind.

Great statesmen past presidents Silanyo and Hassen Shiek Mahmud: Egypt gathered the chief of Navy, Army and Airforce, Chief of Military intelligence, chief of intelligence and other high officials led by deputy foreign minister (who was Egypts ambassador to Ethiopia 2 years before that) and headed to Djibouti, Somaliland and Somalia. Egypt had come up with illustrious agenda of development in Agriculture, education including hundreds of scholarships, military training, security and police training, construction you name it programs that can tranform Somalia and Somaliland into middle income countries or even first world in a matter of few years. For Somaliland was told that Egypt host.. the negotiations with Somalia...nudge nudge eye movement (and eliminate Turkey from any of it) and for Somalia a slightly different version of it. The Catch All contingent and based on that Somaliland or Somalia sign an agreement for Airforce base, Army base, Navy base for Egyt and security branch headquarters. In the agreement also to include these bases can be used against third cuntry starting with operations in Yemen. Both Presidents simply shocked and left the Egyptians speechless. Thank you but not thank you There is an article in the Ethiopian media on this and the embarassment of the Egyptians is that everybody knew, because the president of Somalia was smart enough to make the information public, detering Egypt from attempting anything sinister. Ethiopia is indebted to both Somalia and Somaliland for simply not entertaining the idea.

South Sudan: Today announced that it is coming to the negotiations in Addis Ababa and stated that: 1. The news that was in the media stating that the government of South Sudan wants "the meeting should be moved away from Addis Aaba" is fake news (what to expect from Egypt) 2. Thanks the people and government of Ethiopia for help during the independence struggle and for peace after independence 3. South Sudan thanks IGAD countries, Britain, China, United States ________________________________________________ Missed Japan that has contributed peace keepers and diplomatic support from its embassy in Ethiopia Missed to give mention to Sudan along same status as Ethiopia for Sudan's contribution to peace in South Sudan _________________________________________________ Uganda must have told Kir that he can go to Addis Ababa, and Egypt must have been defeated in its tretcherous but weak diplomacy

Beyond a certain point, A dictator has achieved enough power and influence, he can at will arrest or kill, those who are capable to say NO, you are wrong. Example: 1977 Ethiopia Somalia war: There were WSLF members who opposed the high involvement and some visible involvement of the Republic. Yet late President Barre was in no mood to listen and he demoted some, and froze others. Law on behold that was the downside of the war and the main reason for the defeat of Somalia. Example: Mengistus campaign in Eritrea and stationing most elite of the Army near the place where TPLF started. Both armies about 60,000 in Eritrea and some 20,000 in Shire/Tigray were destroyed by joint operatins/war by TPLF and EPLF. Then some generals moved to overthrow Mengistu, he killed them and was all downhill. Those who had warned Mengistu that the rebels have tanks and if they defeat the army it will shock and demoralize were one in prison and others assigned to other departments.

That is funny. Thank you Holac for the advice. I will leave some notes for my children. galbeedi, Too bad the Haeshi/most of Amhara are not separating from the Somali. On the other hand you should be happy the Oromo are coming with you. You should be extatic the Tigray are in the middle of the sinking. lol Tigray have code for it and will move to Somali kilil and Somaliland and Puntland right before the big one. Until then will stay repairing whatever breaks.

The basis r main criterion to be able to say has options is a society that can stand on its own, hold its own. Of course everything is relative, Somali kilil does not need to be as powerful as Russia or America or Turkey. The neighbourhood requires basically societal cohesiveness, organization, preparadness and some level of military force. If you agree on this main criterion then its easy to understand why I said has options. Example: Level of military force. If your potential enemy knows he will be hurt more than you do in a conflict, will not start a conflict. If your potential friend knows you are a somebody to lean on to be leaned on then he will be more of your friend. Do you see the options you have? Example: preparedness. One of the weaknesses you have is draught and home produced food sufficient for a crisis. If you have capacity to move people, anticipate severity, and capable to provide basic subsistence and move (current capacity can move 2000 person per 48 hours and provide emergency food and water). I don't know the capacity but there is food storage in different locations of the kilil and tents would be homes in such situation. You might have seen in the news during the crisis with neighbor kilil Oromo. Do you see the options you have? Example: Cohesivness. Even if people might not feel comfortable, but you can move people from a clan area to another clan area with very little obstruction today that would have been almst impossible to do a decade ago. People also will slowly understand even if you used emergency state declaration or some force where justifiable. You can also take vehicles from companies or individuals at a moments notice with proper declaration and compensate people at later date. Do you see the options you have? Example: Organization: There is a permanent commission whose job it is to gather predictions, prepare and present plans to deal with emergency or expected draught, deal with desease/illness (communicable). It can include the Militia, Liyu, Students of high schools in its contingency planing and also kilil government employees. Do you see the options you have?

This is best music to ears of Ethiopians. So many battles the Ottomans and Ethiopians/Abyssinins fought against each other during the hey days of the Ottoman empire, but there was never hate thought in Turkey or Ethiopia on each other. Both societies understand that fighting for power fighting for wealth fighting for expansion is every human societies adventure. The Ottomans never succeeded in capturing Abyssinia and the Abyssinians never were able to completely kick out the Ottomans from Red Sea. An Ethiopian prince was not crowned and then overthrown, because he wanted alliance with Turkey in WWI. He was overthrown by British, French and Italian embassies in collusion with Shiwa/Amhara nobles Haileslassie. Ethiopia now has a chance to send her children and learn and be trained in technologies of the day from people who have no suspicion or hiding certain knowledge. Turkey is renovating and preparing the first mosque in the African continent for world heritage status at Negash, Ethiopia. It must be lack of funds or instructors that it has not started in Semera and Jigjiga Universities. On the other hand the number of students in Jigjiga university that are Somali is the same proportion as the Somali students in Meqelle or Addis Ababa. FYI the current president of Ethiopia has working knowledge of Turkish. He can function in government or social in Turkish language. Not sure if that was bonus point in his election by parliament.

What is so surprising? What is so shocking? What is so depressing? Let alone neighbours, aren't most of you in far away lands, learning the language, taking citizenship where ever allowed, and even joining armies of those countries to defend them or being police to keep order? Once a Xabeshi lives in Somali kilil he can live anywhere among Somalis. The good thing is most Ethiopians do learn local languages wherever they go. That way are polite and respectful generally speaking. 6 months in Jigjiga and they can hold conversation in Somali.

lol No time to wait. America wants one in a hurry. Ethiopia and Djibouti, Ethiopia Somaliland don't want trouble between them, hard to move them to fight each other. One needs to change at least one regime and make it trouble maker. There is Eritrea for Djibouti, but that even brings Djibouti and Ethiopia even closer. Same with Sudan Eritrea brings them closer. Some rubble rouser is needed. Kenya is not going to volunteer for this. South Sudan has no capability, if Ethiopia just arms the refugees and send a brigade they can change South Sudan government and take over the villas in Juba. Someone Quick. I am sure some SOLers would want president Farmaajo to give it a try, but Djibouti would not get him out of Mogadishu and Ethiopia would meet him at the border, there is also AMISOM that is guaranteed by Ethiopia for its existance in Somalia. Sad but that is what they seem to be looking for.

Memembers of Derg/Mengistu Hailemariam have written books, op-eds etc. One thing common is almost each one of them mentions that Mengistu near the end had started talking like: 1. You know that I am an Economist and he looks to the person, the person nodes and he is good 2. You know that I am a military strategist and a general nodes and he is good 3. You know that I am a lawyer by training and a person even lawyers just node and are good These are real stories. At this level the dictator has nobody around him to say no sir this is black not brown and its the end. Isayas of Eritrea now has taken this to next level. He told to the first VP of Sudan to overthrow Bashir and Egypt and Eritrea would be supportive. The Eritrea-Sudan border standoff: did Isaias whisper treason? March 20, 2018 Martin Plaut In January this year Sudanese troops were sent to man the country’s border with Eritrea. The border was sealed: trade between the neighbouring states ceased. This has caused real hardship for many on both sides of the border – but particularly in Eritrea, which relies on imports from Sudan. So what is behind these dramatic events? Sudan Vice PresThe origins of the dispute can be traced back to a visit to Eritrea by the Sudanese First Vice – President and National Prime Minister, Lt. Gen. Bakri Hassan Salih in December last year. The official Sudanese statementsaid the two sides had “discussed progress of the bilateral relations between two countries and issues of mutual concern.” But Sudanese sources suggest the discussions were far more dramatic. Sudan has been drifting away from its traditional alliance with Egypt, and closer to Ethiopia. Khartoum has sided with Addis Ababa rather than Cairo over Ethiopia’s Grand Renaissance dam on the Nile. At the same time relations between Eritrea and Egypt have been warming. During General Salih’s visit to Asmara, President Isaias Afwerki suggested that the time was ripe for the General to replace President Omar al Bashir as Sudanese head of state. Apparently speaking with the authority of Cairo, President Isaias said that such a move would be supported by both Eritrea and Egypt. When General Salih returned to Khartoum the news was received with consternation. Sudanese troops were rushed to the Eritrean border and the border sealed.

Djibouti is developing some farms now on the Ethiopian side, but close to border. I have never been to Djibouti city and area, but have been to northern area. Not much changed primitive, but now fast changing even solid homes are being built in middle of desert now. As for imports will be that way for long time. I think you need population concentration for small factories etc to develop. 10 families here 5 families there is not that attractive to start much.

What can I buy with 10,000 SLS. Could I get a meal in an average restaurant lets say for 60,000SLS Any comparisons?

maakhiri1, NO. the whole discussion always involved Djibouti and Ethiopia and if I remember correctly Sudan and Eritrea as well. Including Egypt, UAE Turkey which all involved. There are not strictly internal problems anymore. Even a remote village or hamlet falls in the radar view of one or more powers. Somalis are part of every country in East Africa, either as citizens or neighbours, can't escape that.

You are mistaken on one thing. I never wish ill on anyone, even when I consider an enemy, let alone a Somali. The principle is even your enemy wish to defeat them, but not wish that they get sick or something bad happen to them. Then since you did not contribute to the downfall, you will not benefit anything from it. On your question: Yes everybody is in trouble. I guess you read the inestigative analysis. There must be power struggle, since I do not want anyone to lead any country or people if not willing to struggle for the power to lead. Tigray will be OK, has a number of options that are not bad. Same with Somalis have number of options which are not bad.

So Puntlanders should do their grocery shopping there