Old_Observer

Nomad
  • Content Count

    3,669
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    30

Everything posted by Old_Observer

  1. What took so long/ I can see the Somali, Hareri, Afar and Xabeshi mixing it up there. Air Djibouti can go where Ethiopian can't which is perfect way to cover all East Africa.
  2. Thank you. You understand that this could be one fake news that is equally well recieved by both sides. Sudanese do not mind it, Ethiopians do not mind it, Eritrea/Egyptians/UAE do not mind it. If fake that is the kind of fake news that hits the originator harder than the supposed victim.
  3. Has nothing to do with Tigray. Rest assured if the northern Ethiopians decide to go for sea, will not be even close to Somalia. Che, Aren't you taking a break from Tigray this Tigray that? Power has been handed to an Oromo, some QERO (Shabab) leaders interviewed by VOA stated couldn't be happier. My friend move to next issue. That was yesterday. Or are you again trying to resuscitate the Tigray case by Amhara who happen to think that Tigray outplayed them by taking Oromo out of the "supposed" alliance? You mean Tigray to kick out others or separate. That is 40 year old discussion. If a society moves in a direction for 40 years that is almost 2 generations give it up. BTW what is your contribution or participation in the topic. Tigray was Abyssinia. Ethiopia killed Abyssinia. Ethiopia swallowed what it could, sold what can get it favour of Europeans and abondoned what it was afraid cannot be assimilated.
  4. Its a bit exaggerated. Remember its in the interest of the federal government to have strong, developed Puntland. Puntland is where the federal government can rely on and lean when Mogadishu gets dissy. Farmaajo understands this fact, the place of Puntland in the struggle to standing Somalia on its own two feet.
  5. That is probably why the focus has shifted to Military base more than port issue.
  6. IMHO the Somalilanders are going for two birds with one stone, but the stone in this case is too heavy to throw. It might even fall on the thrower and damage the foot.
  7. Both of today's countries Ethiopia and Somalia were formed in ways and shapes that perfectly serve the Europeans and few local chiefs at the time. The unfortunate thing is the local chief in Ethiopia came from a kingdom that was never sea faring people, there fore the first thing he gave up so easily and happily was the sea shores. In Somalia was quite the opposite. Somalia has now sea shore that can be enough for 20 countries, but still not focused on what is the next region to the sea. It is easy to find regions that are 100km away from the sea not taken as best reserve, center, backbone for the sea. From Kenya to Djibouti who ever is on the sea shore dealing with Europeans with no consideration of what hapens to the nomad in centre or away from sea that need to be agricultural, industrial, social and cultural base of the whole entity. Maybe another shake of the cards is in order or some solution to remake both countries. Ethiopians have been made to think Somalia is some very far, totally different from Ethiopia and an enemy (until recent past) The same but opposite was true in Somalia too. Both countries will fracture. How and when is of course big question. Ethiopia will change soon, very soon with regime change in Eritrea. That regime change will be influenced by Afar and Tigray kilils in Ethiopia and Eastern region of Sudan. The signs are visible, which means a lot of underground work has been done already. Some high military and civilian persons from Eritrea are showing signs that help will be needed at end of dictatorship.
  8. Oodweyne, Puntland has a lot of other issues to worry about other than the Somaliland UAE. Actually among the issues Puntland has this would be the last place. There are Economic issues There are Developmental issues There always is Terrorism issues There is basically Direction issues (Puntland has not moved in one determined direction for some time now) The cousin issue is too exagerated. It does not have the weight its made up to be.
  9. Poor Tigray can't get a break. Tough crowd here. Isn't it amazing SOLers have now become too cynical. I am afraid somethings can be missed and disbelieved even when its the only truth. Oodweyne, You have now made the Tigray the british. From Egypt to Kenya everyone now knows what the Tigray people are. Some correct some wrong image. Either cursing and cussing them or blessing them thanking them for showing up at right time for some peoples not much in betweeen. It reminded me of a Somaliland official who once muzed that almost everyone he met of any significance was a Tigray. Government is a thankless job unless the guy who follows is worst. "laboratory tested" that is a new one that can be copy righted. One issue to make clear. His fast move through ranks in the military and he was in communications not front lines (miss that). Except for Tigray and Afar everybody else was fast tracked to balance the positions for all nationalities. When Mengistu was defeated these two made up more than 85% of all the fighters and almost everyone of commanders. What they did to include the rest was send home 30,000 of their fighters, and fast track the others, but for themselves it takes 5 years to go one higher which is normal. For therest was down to one year if they were good in studies.
  10. Its understandable your thoughts, but cannot give up. Even to kick out all foreign interference you need the Somalis to do it. Its a ctach 22. You need to kick out foreigners to solve the problems, but first you need to solve at least some of the problems to kick out foreigners. Egg or Chicken. The frastration is understandable. Do you know how much Somalis in other countries feel humiliated one of these TFG or SFG fails and back to square one. Its beyond imagination, but not much can be done at the moment except hoping that this version makes it to the goal line. You know what I think. One sentence. Get out of Mogadishu. I know you don't like it.
  11. Che, How was Siera Maestra of Ethiopian politics. You are absolutely correct and now will be emboldened to demand everything at least one group of them is emboldened. Addis Ababa is going to be Waterloo between Amhara more than half the population and Oromo. The language issue I think wait next 10 years. A lot of nationalities might prefer English to put the whole thing to bed. Tigray supports Amharic to maintain the use of their Alphabet Geez.
  12. With all due respect to you and I am sure you did not make this, since I saw it yesterday, but the reply from Abiy is not true, not original its impossible for it to be correct. This message came out when he is not prime minister. He cannot sign off as PM He is only a candidate. If there is bad news in parliament and members choose to vote him down, EPRDF has to go back and choose new one. That is theoretically possible. The message from VP Somaliland can be true and correct, but I am absolutely certain the reply is not.
  13. It would be shocking and extremely suprising if I see a galbeedi post that does not blame Ethiopia, sometimes for everything under the sun. Al Ithad..ICU...Shabab is a chain linked. In between there are names that come and go like Ahlu Al Suna etc..One thing you know well is these incarnations have never been friends with Ethiopia. Ethiopia gives credit to the Somali as to why these organizations have not had big success of terrorism in Ethiopia.
  14. No forward no backward movement. You mean after all this termoil and bloodsheds it is where it was? If you have time read the thread about why the Somali did not join EPRDF in the 80s. Its still exhaustive and although getting fewer and fewer there are Somalis who still believe that should not entangle ourselves deeper than necessary. Not to worry. Kilil will be OK. The next big agenda for EPRDF is how to change into all regions party.
  15. Most of them still are, believe it or not. This is only among the Oromos. There are common names used in Afar, Agew and Tigray but they are like Negash, Hadish, Siyum..etc nothing strictly religious.
  16. You are full throtle on this one. I don't blame you, but your brakes are faulty. You could not stop and went to the cliff on late Yey. Here is what happened: From wikileaks we learned that the US was not supportive of Yey, but was supportive of what ever was in Mogadishu The Americans had access to Yey phone and heard every nationalist ferver the man had. Ms. Fraser herself spoke at death of Mr. Zenawi that she asked him why he is supporting Yey and he told her Yey will put Somalia back and problem of terrorism, irridentism, security issues for Ethiopia would all go away. What she told Yey was that he should stay in Baidao until negociation with ICU and others is completed...forever or until ICU Shabab come and get him, which they tried and his brother was killed by car bomb. I am sure you know or can remember she was in Baidoa in person.
  17. No doubt. When a dictator has no body close or around him to tell him he is doing wrong, he treats a country like a retaurant and the army like a gang. Then its the end. That is where he is. His supporters would tell you he can walk on water, he is great military commander, he is health expert and talks about how much calories is enough (he did this on TV too), stands around building water catchments as an engineer tells the engineers what to do (recorded and broadcast on TV)..... The people of Sudan were most generous, most humaine had about a million Ethiopian and Eritreans in 1984 height of war and famine. The Ethiopians immediately after victory gathered elders from all regions and provinces went to Khartoum and thanked the people and government of Sudan, the Eritrean has been nothing but trouble as tool of Gaddafi, America, Mubarek/Sisi and now UAE against Sudan.
  18. The British can do both: Example your way the normal way that made them great britain, british empire influencing half the world in 1913 Ethiopia was ruled by Prince. This prince was designated to be emperoror by Menelik (Minelik grandson by daughter no male projeny). This prince wanted to expel British from Somaliland, France from Djibouti and Italy from Eritrea. He made few trips to Somaliland and British were spying on him. He met the Sayid and British spied on him, he always met German ambassador and the prince was raised by german nanny and german teachers, he met Turkish Ottoman Ambassador always and the British were spying both. All reports were sent your way and when 1st WW was close they decided must be removed. Created fake news that the Prince has converted to Islam...etc the rest is history he was gone My suspicion on this report card, or my corrupted way: In 1942 the British brought king haileslassie back from his refuge of 5 years in England and restored him as king of Ethiopia. In Tigray and Gojjam people rebelled stating cannot be ruled by an escapee, king that run away to safety leaving his people under mustard gas bombardment. Some British official did not explain, but asked sir Winston Churchil that if Haileslassie is overthrown British colonies are in danger. Sir winston churchil ordered war against the rebels with some 8,000 british forces, but was not enough and he ordered incendiary bombs (that later used in german cities) to be used. Aircraft from Asmara were not enough and brought from Yemen. The rebels whose name was Weyannie were defeated, that is where the name comes from. A British general no less did not know that a reported to Churchil and decision came down as he asked why are we bombing our allies against Italy? Yours is normal and common way, but mine can slip from time to time.
  19. Suldaanka, The policy and stand of Ethiopia about Somaliland/Somalia is this: No war between the two for two reasons: 1. will be same result after war what could be achieved peacefully. Eritrean experience is still fresh and will remain fresh in the Ethiopian psyche. In Ethiopian case chose to be landlocked than fight to the grave for all peoples. The choice is for the Somalis and Ethiopians role is to accept and support whatever you folks agree Independence, Confederation, federation... Unitary government as a solution is not possible as it was not possible in Ethiopia. It can be safely said is the same for Kuwait. Djibouti is also the same since if you folks go to war it has immediate effect on both Djibouti and Ethiopia.
  20. cadnaan1, I have a thread exactly for that reason, since few SOLers asked the same question.
  21. Here are the facts about Oromo. The Oromo kilil population is 34.6 million and not 40 million as I might have exaggerated 6-7 Million of this population is not Oromo Ethnic QERO (Shabab in Arabic) is a movement created by OLF and it is OLF wanting to either dominsate Ethiopia or separate Oromo country as bottom line. Either every Ethiopian speaks Oromo language or Oromo do not speak other language (independent) Oromo has conflicting land/territory claims with Somali, Sidama, Amhara. Dirdawa was left federal for this reason OLF ONLF could not move from this question and there are territorial conflicts throughout the borders up to Moyale. QERO being radical decided to fight alone and have power alone. What ever was started in Gonder city in Amhara kilil fizzled away ones real QERO intentions were exposed. This is forum and if one does not like to read a certain information can do so freely. I do not close my eyes and live with my exclusive truth being afraid my truth may not be the truth. FYI The Oromo have been celebrating all night, which leads me to belive they are happy with the result. I am not Oromo. I do not pretend to know more than the Oromo what needed to be done.
  22. Reading the summary, I thought a Somalilander parliamentary assistant sliped it into the records, on second thought I supposed the Somalilanders have bought a British official and since when empires fall become so corrupt, its possible even to buy a general of an empire to start some war. But then it downed on me that the PM is British business influenced man. All in all such things are a harbinger of not so good things to expect. President Farmaajo may need to pay a visit to London and get the Somalis there to show their support. That is one way to fight papers/records like this.
  23. I am afraid you are looking at 40 million Oromo and a couple of Tigray Xabeshi. It's a lot more complicated than that. In that case it cannot work. If you wanted Oromo power then do it on your own is what others told them. That is bad. The Oromo should at the very least won over support of either Somali or Sidama from their left or right side to achieve anything worthy. Even if they get power your way, they would definitely lost it next day. The power in Ethiopia is now so scattered no single entity Ethnic, party, group can grab. You need alliances, friends, brothers from few places.
  24. Absolutely and to add to that most of Sudan share is paid by Qatar. Since land, sea, security that Sudan provide is not enough for the 51% share.
  25. maakihiri, This is a repaet except the word resumption added. The reconciliation issue is a very dangerous one. Each UN folks especially the involved ones like US, Britain, France, China and among the smaller ones Ethiopia and Gulf members of UNSC have all diffferent views on who and who need reconciliation. The main problem now is that since the Somali in America have become successful (which is good), has access to senators, congressman, secretaries etc there is clan focused information feeding. Reconciliation came up mainly to address situation of 1991/92, but now is expanding to every issue. That is terrible. It will muddy the waters and not reconcile anything. Then again what happened in 1991/2 is holding some parts of the republic and not able to move forward, yet not able to talk about it without affecting what has been achieved. Somaliland issue, I think is now becoming an issue even for the big powers to address. The SFG needs to move fast negotiate and put to bed either way. Its now a generation of Somali society born and grown up in this status. It should not wait until other powers start stating positions or suggestions which some may not make Somalilanders happy and some may not make Somalia happy. Anytime you do not face your own issue means allowing others to influence. The intra-clan is I think you can guess is meant for the two Hs in Mogadishu. They have given every SFG a headache because they want to have a clan status each of them instead of sharing the one of the four and half they want two of the four and half and practically by holding SFG in Mogadishu they get it. They change chairs and become one friend of Turkey another Egypt, one friend Ethiopia another opposite and I am sure same with Uganda or Qatar or somebody else. For the federal system to work they both need to solve power share in the 1/4.5 no more. That has been big one. I am not sure if the reconciliation for 1991/2 will be constructive now. Maybe some people who had authority at the time, official or clan or sub clan position need to be given platform to bring out some of the happenings and ask forgivemness and move on or the whole government making clear and concise apology to Bay area for the happenings there at ending of the regime and beginning of the current conflicts the eggregious ones. Since US was partly involved before Ethiopia in Bay Bakool and both have some documentation of what they found, saw or was told that chapter needs also some closing and moving on. Its another issue that may have to be done after election, since its very wide and so many issues of 27 years. Unless the government can find intellectuals, elders (better than the ones we see in parliamnet) and most importantly financing its a job bigger than forming government. Except maybe Somalis from Djibouti Kilil NFD no foreigners I would say. Its a very big, heavy and deep issue/problem and timing difficult to choose.