Some background to the relationship with all three: After the 77/78 war there was a 4 way split among Somalis: 1. Those who were convinced the war should never have happened the way it did, they remained in WSLF and called for federalizing Ethiopia. 2. Those who enthusiastically supported the manner the war was done, started blaming others for its failure. Most of them became ONLF 3. Those who were neutral about the organization of the war, and quickly moved on to alternative means after the war was lost. Became political organizations 3-4 of them 4. Those who totally gave up the idea of joining other Somalis in one country organized in such a way that the Somalis build autonomous region and see what the future holds. 2 Organizations. In 1991 group 1, 3 and 4 united and negotiated the federal system in Ethiopia along with other Ethnics and regions. Djibouti, Somaliland and Puntland (what later became) were pleased with this developments and encouraged them. No.2 was hesitant, but joined none the less. But since it joined too late and got too little. So obviously went for separation, before the ink has dried and tested the new arrangement in Ethiopia. They assumed that Ethiopia is at its weakest. They could not have been more wrong. They did not understand Ethiopia. Only the Amxara were at their weakest. Many Somali still make the same mistake. They equate Amxara with Ethiopia completely. Even now with Abiy and support of Arabs, Eritrea, SFG Somalia and America, the strength is very limited. First of Arabs and Xabeshi don't mix. If they do its artificial and only Amxara. Other Ethnics don't care or hate Arabs. When ONLF made the move for separation, they put most Somalis and also most all Ethiopians in a very uncomfortable position. Among all Somali organzations and warlords, there was only one organization Ithad and 2-3 warlords and upcoming war lords like Ali Jama....that supported ONLF. There was also small split in ONLF. Eritrea was not at war then, but later became main supporter through EGYPT (which was only one that showed interest on ONLF from begining). Djibouti, Somaliland and Puntland told ONLF that ONLF cannot use their territories as base to fight Ethiopian government. Considering what Somaliland did with Egypt, every Somali can be proud of them when they gave 6 months to ONLF to cease and decease open avitivities from Somaliland. Somaliland assured the Ethiopians that at end of 6 months there will not be any operations that emantes from Somaliland and for the Ethiopians not to do anything within those six months. Djibouti and Puntland took immediate action, since ONLF tried to cheat them. Now things have become normal. Eritrea at least officially and visibly is out of ONLF life, since Abiy and Cagjar are in a totally different camp and ONLF finds it impossible to join them. ONLF had sent delegation to all three and apologized for ONLF mistake in attempting to get them to go to war with Ethiopia for sake of ONLF. ONLF has now come full circle and has become most Federalist and constitutionalist. The sad thing is they lost influence with every critical situation. They also made an operation just for money, in the killing of Chinese and Ethiopian oil workers, which they could have warned and damaged the equipment, but those who paid them were not interested in doing a clean war, they wanted total stoppage. Arabs, America take your pick. That operation alone cost ONLF almost half of their support and a third of the leadership that negotiated and came to Ethiopia. Don't be surprised if you see ONLF flag in Hargeisa, Djibouti or Garowe.

What is the place of Puntland in the minds of Somalis from Djibouti to NFD? The most important. Not just this thread, but almost every thread here: Irridentists complain Puntland is too powerful always more powerful than even the SFGs. Somalilanders have their anntennaes up for any thing Puntland more than Mugadishu since their life is most impacted by Puntland more than by Djibouti or Mugadishu Other regions look to Puntland as the only sane and hopeful entity for all Somalis Hate them or love them, they are the no.1 talked about entity among Somalis every where. They find all this annoying, but sometimes they have used it as capital.

You missed the plot. This is all the American advise to Abiy. Look like/act like a nationalist and anti Arab since the Tigray are still alive and can at least scatter your forces. Don't risk being next Meles for the damn dam. Egypt is demanding 7 years Abiy has already moved to 4 years from the 3 years that Tigray had insisted and the Egyptians had to look for Amxara Oromo groups, since militarily was impossible for them. Somalia said NO, Somaliland said NO, Sudan of course said NO, Kenya said NO, South Sudan had fallen under Egyptian influence and they are paying the price for it. Eritrea knew he would be preemptively attacked before the Egyptian bases are expanded. For Egyptians the military option was very uncertain to extremely risky. Egypt was also sacred what Israel would do, to what length it would go with Tigray, since Netanyahoo had made statement "military confrontation is unthinkable and impossible, but I can be a go between and find a solution". Abiy will declare few weeks or months from now saying he stood firm against Egypt and brought them down to 5 years and case closed, "we are brothers" we drink the same water we grow plants from same silt/soil...etc. The Amxara don't care about the dam. They were actually against it when Tigray were in power. Even Mengistu was against the dam and he said its Tigray conspiracy to start war with Egypt. Emotionally only Tigray and Afar care, since they have done almost all the fighting with Egypt through out history. Developmentally, financially most Ethiopians care since 6GW is a lot of power, better than oil which oil comes with death, war, corruption..etc. Abiy is just pretending. If America, UAE, Egypt brought him to power...what do you think he will do. Kenya boy is excellent with Abiy.

Oodweyne, Things are not looking good for the Prince. He chose "better be feared than loved", but 1. In Israel Bibi's chances are narrowing, Gantz has been asked to form government ahead/before Netanyahoo. To add insult to injury the deciding group/party is the Arab joint list. 2. In America Trump's chances are also shakey already. DOW what Trump kept bragging every campaign lost 3,000 just today and Trump people are already going DOW who? 3. Erdogan and Qatar who survived the assault are recovering at wrong time for the Prince.

Ethiopia cannot afford to suspend Berbera even if some officials may wish and that is it wish. One of the signs that you can watch to see Ethiopia's interest in Berbera is this: Why does Shide go from position to position always higher? Shide is the only one of the Illey/Tigray team that has moved higher during Abiy. What does Shide has to do with Berbera you might ask: 1. In the kililka plan of preferring Berbera more than Djibouti (Berbera covers more population and geography than Djibouti that only is short distance on north tip of Kililka), Shide was responsible of the implementation 2. During Meles Shide was brought through a commission to help implement Kililkas plan to work on this project with Somaliland and Federal govt. Ethiopia. 3. Shide was responsible of the negotiations with Somaliland and UAE. And was made minister during Hailemariam so he can continue the work.

Mean while today: DOW goes down more than 2000 and stops trading Oil goes below 30 dollars per barrel China restarting its industries and normal life Others entering into not-normal life and quarantines Japan will keep its negative interest policy, but to buy assets USA will bailout/support some of its business to tune of 800 billion Saudi Arabia??????? Russia- don't care with rainy day fund, minimum to no loan from outside, less US dollar, ready replacement for SWIFT...etc

Both are blaming each other. Pompeo who was the first one to blame China is now crying faul when the Chinese turned the tables. Sequence: China declares an emergency in Wuhan USA demands that CDC go in separately and help/work on it. China refuses and says CDC can only come as part of WHO. America bitterly complains, but since China is a country that cannot be bullied, CDC went as part of WHO. WHO refused to declare pandemic at that time. Now China has lifted emergency and restarting normal industry and life, and WHO declared pandemic for rest. What has come out is that both US and China had this virus in research some years ago. China might have bought or participated in research in US through students and co-operation some labs. Why are the British, Russians, Turkish...so quiet?

I agree. A crisis should not go to waste. Use it for something good.

The arrest is more than 200. Including high security, defense and other government officials. This may be final round of elimination of possible competitors.

That is what happens when tourism is a big part of your economy. Ghelleh is "superman". Many people advised him about tourism. He never gave in. Tourism is business that can disappear by one bad news. I hope that it may be lack of testing systems and not extensional downplaying by the Turkish authorities. Remember USA had problem where test kits did not work for about 2 weeks and only 30-50 people a week were tested in a country of 350 million.

Sure WHO had sent test kits, but Somalia should ask for help from China and Russia right away. Russia has distributed test systems to all Eurasia that were in Soviet Union. China is already helping Iran and Italy and making a difference. Somalia government should ask and pass it to regions straight directly without any political games including Al Shabab areas to extent possible.

This is same as it has been since 1995. It would have changed slightly had the census would have been done, but Amxara rejected the census. Actually I am wrong census has no direct effect to number of representatives. This is constitutional. The same in Canada or Switzerland. Its is numbers set by agreement to be fair, but not exactly mathematically. Tigray and Somali have similar population, but Somali is one Ethnic and Tigray has 3 or 4 Ethnics. Amxara will loose in their own kilil since there has been so much fighting by other Ethnics there.

You may be right. But the US either has to subsidize Stop banks from calling the loans to oil companies as they did for farmers at certain level Or wait it out and see who survives from their companies Saudi Arabia needs 80 dollar per barrel to balance its budget. It does not matter that Saudi has lowest cost of production. The critical thing is how much money is coming to the tilly. Russia needs 40 dollar per barrel to balance its budget They have 3 years worth of rainy day fund at 20 dollars a barrel They have infrastructure so cost of transportation to all their customers is lowest. That is how it worked for them, what they loose in cost of production they gain in transportation. If consumption goes to zero, US companies loose, because they have so much debt to investors/banks. That is why already Trump said he will buy the oil and fill all reserve to the rim, so that US companies do not go bankrupt already. Remains to be seen. There is hope already. China seems to have seen light already. They are already shipping materials and personnel to Iran. If that is the case, then oil may be lower demand, but still enough for Saudis and Russians.

Saalax, Who is going to pay the penalty? you? Its about 1 billion USD. It gets reduced with investments. For example if Ethiopia completes all the roads in the agreement then gets reduced by 100 million. If Ethiopia completes its part in the dry port then gets reduced by further 100 million. Half a billion stays until 20 years.

Uganda is just trying to get rid of Farmaajo even though he goes extra mile to be good to Uganda. He attempted to bring Ethiopia and Eritrea to replace Uganda and Brundi. The Ugandans did not like it a bit and had Farmaajo not gone on his knee and begged them, the Ugandans had enough MPs in Mugadishu to overthrow him or at least make his life hell.

Oodweyne, I understand the case between you and Djibouti. As long as its conducted by non military means, I think every body will stay away and quiet. For ARTA' death you have to thank P. Abdulqasim first and your Pirate brethren second. The President went straight to Egypt against Ghellehs advice and that was the end of him from Ethiopia and Djibouti. Returned from Egypt and dealt with Ali Jama and again that was the end for him from Ethiopia and Puntland. He was done and discarded before he even set foot in Mogadishu. Saudis are in excellent relations with Djibouti even after Djibouti did not allow the Saudis to use their base in Djibouti for Yemen. Amazing even the young lad has been so friendly with Ghelleh. Ghelleh knows the value of Somaliland to his existence since peace in the area is his existence. He knows his limits even when he had great friendship in Somalia. I think the agreement between Somaliland and SFG, not to obstract each other for development works, investments..was the highlight of Ghelleh's good side.

Che, Do not forget the fact that Ethiopia and Kenya do exchange information if anything they do or are dealing with is in security and defense. It happened with Kenya and Uganda. Same Ethiopia with Sudan and Ethiopia with Eritrea. They have defense pact from 1964 (Remember that is also historical year for Somalia and Ethiopia). This pact unlike other African pacts has worked practically and used by 3 totally different regimes in Ethiopia. King/Derg and EPRDF. ICU were shocked when Ethiopian troops came through Kenya with all their arms/vehicles as if they were in Ethiopia. Abiy enjoys face book propaganda and looking like big. It helps any leader with lots of problems at home to talk about different subject. As for Kenyans, they are the Nigeria of East Africa. Nigeria, Egypt, Kenya..are champions. The Kikuyu women have already bought 200" TVs, Mercedes, Ornaments from India and clothings from Europe.... Some of the men involved might have to commit suicide. Oil needs blood everywhere.

The thing that annoys me to no end is that people who prefess to unite all Somalis under one tent are first ones to make that tent smaller in Somalia itself, forget the other regions of Somalis. If Abiy is killing Somalinimo in Kililka, he cannot be raising the Somali ambition in Somalia. You cannot put all Somalis in one tent if they have been broken as Somalis and made as different people. Of all the regions Somalis inhabit, Kililka has the highest reflection of all Somalis on earth. Kililka shares people/clan/subclan with every region in the HoA. Now it includes European/American/Asian countries as well. There is a Kililka Somali, wherever there are a 100 or more Somalis. If Ethiopia does anything in any of the regions where Somalis are majority or absolute, without any content or participation of Kililka, it should be cause for concern. Best example was SWS and Abiy had to hold few meetings and promise never to repeat again.

Here falls the other shoe To Help Somalia she needs to work with many congress men/women. The last thing she needs to help Somalia is be extreme partisan and also not having what they call "horse trading". Let alone Ilhan with very limited community in one state, even the Israelis always maintain and compromise for bipartisan support. She may have been brave or anything, but she set a bad example of entering into fights, before she even had her first vote and before she accomplished anything worth bragging about.

EXCLUSIVE: Saudi crown prince plans to become king before November G20 Summit Mohammed bin Salman launched purge against his uncle and others to clear path to becoming king ahead of gathering in Riyadh EXCLUSIVE: Saudi crown prince plans to become king before November G20 Summit WWW.MIDDLEEASTEYE.NET Mohammed bin Salman launched purge against his uncle and others to clear path to becoming king ahead of gathering in Riyadh "Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman “arrested top Saudi royals for plotting with the Americans against the King”, a chill swept across the leadership in Saudi Arabia when security forces detained dozens of Interior Ministry officials, senior army officers and others suspected of supporting this coup attempt—and while rounding up these coup plotters, Crown Prince bin Salman turned his full wrath on the United States in what is being described as “the oil market equivalent of a declaration of war”—an all-out oil war that now sees Crown Prince bin Salman destroying OPEC as he floods the world with oil to crush US shale oil producers—the same US shale oil producers who were previously warned “need a miracle” if they have any hope of surviving the market bloodbath about to wash over them." Saudi Arabia Starts All-Out Oil War: MbS Destroys OPEC By Flooding Market, Slashing Oil Prices WWW.ZEROHEDGE.COM There will be blood.

galbeedi, I hate to rain on your enthusiasm, but this latest situation has not much to do with Somalia, Kenya or Ethiopia, but with their common "master" the great America. Soon Farmaajo will be told not to do anything in this area and Moodabe will be given the support even arms and tasked with being first in line to support the US interests in the area. Kenyatta is doing only what he has been told to do. That is why the thing looks weird.

Khadafi, Good questions, but nt the right time. There is now total loss of self confidence among most nomads. When talking about Somalia, if somebody starts talking like..America will do this, Ethiopia will do this, Kenya will do this, UAE Qatar or Turkiye will do this...it means that nomad has given up all hope of solving his problems himself. This is a disease that has been infecting all regions one at a time. The only places where there is the confident and self respecting nomad is Djibouti and Somaliland. Somaliland and Djibouti are the two areas that the nomad need to be broken and the whole focus of Abiy his masters and his friends is on Somaliland and Djibouti in that order. If you are committed and confident others will come to help you or hinder you. If you have lost your confidence, you don't have a red line, then others will come to tell you what to do. That is where we are. Kililka was broken last year and now is going down at very high speed, a year from now the regional TV station will start programs of 60 percent Amxara and 40 percent Somali and slowly. 2 years ago it was 100 percent Somali.

MMA, Who is using who? What is the price you pay to use Abiy and the Ethiopian stick? What was the price Farmaajo paid for what Ethiopia did for him in SWS? Why Farmaajo never speaks, mentions Turkey? Have you ever heard him brag about soldiers trained? Projects that succeeded and or failed? Never. Why? Let me tell you one fact that many here do not realize. Anything Ethiopia does in Somalia or any Somalis anywhere is either completely or mainly based on the Somali Kililka. Every Somali president except Farmaajo has always had connection or contacts in Kililka. Let alone SFG which is really in name only, even the great Ghelleh speaks with Somali elders before he does anything with Ethiopia or Somalia. Abiy is trying either by deception, by pressure or coercion to kill Kililka. That is his promise to Amxara.

So you agree with Iran analysts. The fight with Russians over oil prices and volume has also reached its feverish level. The world will see now who is smarter and who can take pain. USA and Russia. Russia has said: Pump as much as you want and sell at any price as you want to everybody. Below 40 Dollars a barrel American shale oil collapses and bankrupts, but then again with consumption expected to go really low, America can take the pain. Saudis are caught in the middle and America is telling them to keep oil above 40. What to do? Here is also another analysis which is truly remarkable. Its UAE that is dragging and killing Saudis. This makes a lot of sense. Al Sissi is shaking in his American-Israeli boots. https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/will-mbs-bring-end-saudi-dynasty Trump and the boy king: Mohammed bin Salman's reign is over before it even began There has probably been no other day on which its enormous wealth seemed so utterly useless. Now, US President Donald Trump, publicly acting more as a contractor than as a leader of a superpower, is telling his Saudi friends and allies - as he has on several previous occasions - that they must pay generously if they expect him to step in and defend them.

I am starting to believe the song: What goes up must come down. But what is down is not a must to go up, sometimes goes down further and never come up. History is a something. The Persians/Iran can come up, they have past where they were great empire The Ottomans/Turks can come up they have past where they great empire The Yemenis can survive since they always have done so The Afghanis can survive since they always have done so. Both have confidence that empires will come and go. Arabs do not have either. Never been great empire and never been great resistance. Always mixed bag.