Recovery Zones -- No More! War & Weecaal Gazette By Col-U-Joog Inna Tacabur *Cantara-Baqash Cycle continues. People die everyday. Some by accidents. Others by choice. Men in their twenties put their neck on the line -- for the strongman of their tol. Such was the case in Las Caano, the heart of Dawrwiishland. The man of the hour, Mr Xabsade, proved to his cousins back in Garowe that he is relevant enough to change the political equation in the region. Xabsade’s move is consistent with the rules of the game. His rationale in switching sides is right on the money. It is a verse straight from the book of Politics without Principles. He is not as good as his mentors General Cadde and Col. Yussuf are for he has not mastered the lines in that bible per verbatim as yet. Still he is up there enough to put on Subject Matter Expert hat. And put on he did. Outmaneuvered and outsmarted, Xabsade found himself sharing dirrin with tuulo-joogs in Buuhoodle. No money, no title, and his phone calls went unanswered by his tol, namely Inna Yussuf. He had to use the only remaining card. Chapter six, verse eight in the book of nomads reads Hadba waxaad ku ciil bixi kadhaa ku cawa aduuna! It just so happened that this particular line is the same exact line general Cadde used when he attacked Puntland from Northwest safe havens with Hargeisa's permission. Gone is the reconstruction projects that were under way in Las Caano. Schools, clinics, even make-shift offices for hyped oil exploration in region come to a complete halt. Today what used to be a recovery zone has morphed into green line between brotherly sub clans reminiscent to Lixda koos ee reer Cali-garee kow iga siiyey, Kasi waaye wuxu waa qabaal waadna kabataane! Waxa-La-Yiri 24 hour news wires tell another story. According to the talking-heads in Darbiyo-Salaan street, proud secessionists green berets stormed through the lines of thousands of tolka commandos stationed in the border between the two independent countries. The spin doctors are having a field day. They tell tall tales about nationalism and clan pride. They have their committed and interested audiences. If one puts one’s self in their shoes one has to concede that secessionists have scored one hell of a touchdown -- and that’s from clan perspective. Their festive mood is justified for their clan is in full control over one of the main cities of the opposing entity. How the city changed hands is not important. Nor the fact that Hargeisa loyalists facilitated the city changing hand is important. What’s important is that Las Caano is under different column today. However if one takes the long view and weighs the danger that looms over the region one can see how this conflict can usher an era of instability to an area known for its relative peace. If things proceed to that direction one can imagine a protracted war within one sub-clan inviting allies from neighboring clans to come to their aide. The onus is on the Las Caano folks for the truth is the problem is within not without. Yes one can mention the 'wag the dog' move from Riyaale camp which is part of the campaign to destabilize the city for his party's political advantage. But ultimately the Las Caano folks are the ones who will pay the price. Bring the boys home, listen to Xabsade’s grievances, and sit with the Garowe camp in order to draw a new clan contract that spells out exactly how the state is controlled, staffed, and how the port revenues are distributed.

Stop right there Kashafa. Here is where things get pretty interesting. Do I hear you say that they will be driven out by force? By they I mean Geddi/Yussuf supporters and their Tigre ally? It's doable don't get me wrong but who is going to force them out? What grassroots support are the "rijaal" counting on in their upcoming struggle? Logistical support, command and control, trained fighters, awoowe are the goods there to get back on the saddle? How will this be different from the heydays of UIC? By the way, the roommates are the supporters of Gheddi, Qeybdiid, & Yussuf. Baba I gotta catch a flight. I'll probably be back in about six weeks. God I hate to leave when I'm this close to seal the deal. Suffice to say that I'm all for Ethiopian withdrawal. And I don't think no one will shed tears for their departure. But I'm pretty much question the feasibility of that happening as a direct result of military campaign. I'm kinda realizing that our difference in both approach strategy wise and execution stem from our deeply held understanding of the Somali society. I'm in the view that Somalis (majority) are still illiterate (both maadi and diini), prone to exploitation, easily fooled by their "afar-jeeble", loyal to the only organized order they know of and rely on their security -- that of clan -- and are a light years away from deserting their tribe's political position en mass in favor of Islam. You on the other hand think that once Ethiopians are defeated and TFG liquidated, the vacuum will be easily filled by organized entity out there as the one in Asmara and Somalia will be once again on the road of Islamic revival. That is not gonna happen. Reason being odds are stacked against that possibility. I'm just using my noodles and doing the math. To get the stated goal we nailed on the board from the outset you will have to put to bed the clan baby, eliminate the need of third party involvement, and embark the long road of educating the masses. That will take time and only patient, prudent, and calculating realist in touch with reality will make it to the finish line. I'm for Shariah-based government calling the shots in united, stable, peaceful, and prosperous Somalia. That to materialize will take time. Today I will settle in a Somalia that faces its deamons in a dirin attended by all the stakeholders where the Islamists have a shot for the top seat. I'm pretty convinced that's the starting point for the recovery process.

Super. Many thanks Farax. I hear ya loud and clear. You want Habasha out. Simple as that. How? The keyfiyah is an issue if you have been paying attention. Kashafa you on the other hand demand not only their withdrawal but you are also committed to clear-cut platform namely stable, united, and peaceful Somalia under the banner of Islam. You have just upped the stakes. Now you need to show the know-how of getting your ducks in line. Amici we are in business. Finally we are talking. Let me agree on the presence of the pink elephant in the living room. It is there. The trouble is two of the roommates insist on having this troublesome guest who wreaks havoc in the house to stay put! Ya can call them Elephant-loving push-overs! Still they insist on having their friend to stay undisturbed. Just to break the ice how you suppose we approach the situation? Talk to me awoowe. Just wanna have a feeling of your line of reasoning.

Don't you labor on where I stand. I stand by my posts. Just for once accept that every one who sees things from different perspective is not gaal or Ethiopian spy in disguise. Now be a good sport and tell me what do you really want? No joke -- do tell me plz and I will show you if it has a chance flying off from the ground or not!

Don't go awol on me now Kashafa. Is there a room for those of us who want not to repeat the tactical and some instance monumental blunders you spoke of? Or anyone who dares to question the feasibility of this venture is outta door and in under the column of the Dibi-dhilifs? Easy now. Alright. I have another idea kinda of reverse-engineering. What's the end goal Kashafa? Is it the defeat of warlordism, dabadhilifs, TFG, whatever name you deem is appropriate? Is it stable, peaceful Somalia , united under the banner of Islam? Or driving Ethios outta Somalis soil will do? Gimme the end product and will go from there.

Blue Brown Farax can't do it buddy. I mean how can one choose between Neocons, Ethios neighbors, and "Umada Somalida iyoi Wadaadada"? Ya giving me a migraine headache awoowe. Don't hurt my feelings awoowe

Waa shaash Chicken waaxid. Now after that waabis Ramadan Kareem and stay clear from Qarran-Diid losers. Whoever siad Baashi is neutral has misled the forum. I know where I stand. I am for fill the blanks. I'm aganist fill the blanks. I don't call myself a Nuetral. It is a designation given to me by folks I have exchanged swings and I knocked their behind off in one go. Ya see my man Blue I have yet to find able debators who can take me to the task. The fact that i don't get into the pocket of one of the low illiterate afar-jeeble gives you and others the impression that I don't have a position or I'm going all this trouble of hiding my true colors just so I can...hmmm well what would be a good reason to go to that length...dunno. In any case, challenge my positions and for a minute forgot my assumed neutrality. Wiil ya Mr. BROWN?

Pansy cyber character rolling his eyes like dhoocil doesn't sit well with Nuetral Baashi. Awoowe iga ilaali indhaha la rog-rogo waan ku yara xajiimoodaa e. Well stand corrected then moron.

Inna Barro has asked an interesting question. The answer is resounding yes. For Islamists to get where they need to be, they will face countless roadblocks. Having allainces who they share with the common ground objectives namely Somalia that's peace with its neighbors, can fend for itself from outside interferences, and open to face its internal deamons is a win-win situation. Now I don't know about you guys but I see clearly that Islam in Somalia succeeds only when three things happen: 1) Stable Somalia 2) Free Somalia where Islamists have no obstacles in their way to sell their noble message and have the chance to stand for an election. If the argument that Somalis are Muslims who see the sweetness of Islam has any legs they have nothing to fear. To get there they need to come to terms with the reality on the ground. TFG is in Mogadishu and the whole world is behind them sort of. Their leaders are hunted like a treasure. Their friends are contained and isolated. Now they have proved that their cooperation is necessary for Bendir to stablize I think it is high opportune to seize the moment and strike a workable and paractical deal. Secularists they made up with in Asmara are Muslims in their heart and can be persuaded to support the political platform they are suppodsely running on. Don't write them off. Today the goal is just and negotiated settlement where ALL can particpate. Gimme that and I give you free Somalia.

What's up with this dhoocil style eye rolling? Are you a pansy by any chance Look my man Farax, in case you misread my comment I was talking about the delegates themselves -- They came for the reconciliation. That event has ended. They should go back wherever they came from. What else is there to talk about?

It will take Tigre-speaking juntas to put an end to Somali misery Waa-Siday-Tahay Magazine By Inna-Xaawo Col-U-Joog Looks like Somali players have their political safety net all figured out. You fall from grace from one bandwagon and bang! you jump onto the other one going to the opposite direction. It’s old tired game reminiscent in the cold war era. The funny thing is it really works. Somali conflict is entering in a new stage. Sides have been formed. States have shown their hands. And politicians are a thin topaz away from getting seen in their baby suits. It has been a proxy war all along. What’s changed now is the consolidation of both domestic and foreign support for or against the contesting clans. Egypt, Djibouti, Yemen, Kenya, Ethiopia, Eritrea and Gulf states have done their share of shoring up one group over the other. But this time around Uncle Sam has dropped his big hammer down and on one side and declared the other as the legit friendly regime IC can do business with. TFG has just concluded what it called a grand reconciliation congress. Representatives from many clans met in a fortified compound secured by clans loyal to TFG and its ally Ethiopian forces. Ironically the venue of the congress has been attacked, repeatedly, by one of Somali clans. Considering the fact that the trouble makers boycotted the meeting and the attendee had no militia under their command, no political office under their belt, and weighed no political issues, rendered that effort a meaningless exercise. In Asmara another congress is in progress. The only thing that unites the participants there is their grudge against the top brass in Mogadishu and their big bad bully ally. That aside, they have no other practical plans that can take war-weary Somalis to the other side of the bridge – post-conflict era. In Benadir, TFG has declared that clans have made up with each other and all is good and well – with the usual caveat – except the “Qaran-Diid”. In Asmara, participants have issued an ultimatum. The message from that gathering is clear: Ethiopians must withdraw and TFG has to relinquish power or else. The first is trying to avoid sharing power with a group it (with Ethio and Uncle Sam’s might) has defeated in the battlefield. The latter are counting on the rank and file of shabaabs and disgruntled young clan militia they have no control over and no means to support. Both sides have their domestic audiences. Sound bites are extremely effective. The Daba-Dhilif resonates pretty well so is the Qaran-Diid. Both groups have their regional friends. Both sides of the conflict are played like a boojo! Eritrean underdogs know how to poke a finger on the giant’s underbelly. And in turn Ethiopians found a way to put the pressure on the Eritrea. Still both states have shown a willingness to avoid another unnecessary border war. Instead they have shown an uncompromising appetite to undermine each other’s interest inside Somali proper and at the expense of Somalis. At this stage the fadhi-ku-heshiis consensus is - - in order to stabilize Somalia: A) Eritrea and Ethiopia have to commit to the stabilization project. B) Other regional first-line border-states have to sign on to the demilitarization/hands off effort. C) All regional states including Ethiopia and Eritrea have to put the pressure on their Somali allies for Somalis to enjoy peace. D) UN, AU, and AL have to have the will to invest the resources needed to cement any gains would-be held reconciliation effort will have produced. Anything short of that will guarantee a hard long ride for the Gees aka warlords and their sympathizers. You and I, in the meantime, will keep on doing what we do the best look on this cut throat conflict from a distance and....

Shaxaad taken to another level. That's what it is. Like awoowe adaa heli karayee i sii kinda game. Intee laga keenaa lacagta iska socota bal?

Hambalyo qallanjo. Another 50 years of bliss yaan kuu wadacay

Reminds me the saying Baadi niman lahayn bay ag joogtaa.

The clear-eyed observers of Somali scene will take issue with your positive enthusiasm. To say that the participants hail from different clan background and hence the unity milestone, a rare political milestone, is within reach is to put it mildly quite naïve. If clan diversity is a yardstick we use in order to forecast the success or lack thereof of of political gathering then one has to weigh in the fact that last two grand gatherings were “majestic” in terms of its unparalleled clan diversity. Yet they both failed big time. That said, I’m holding on to a every bit of hope that the Asmara group get their act together in a way that position them as a an opposition group with clear game plan and a one that’s open to negotiated settlement.

^Awoowe tee baa tagtay aan sagootinee? Waqti aad u yar baan haystaaye soo dhaqso boowe aan yara chat-nee.

Ramadan kariim to you too Northow. Marxab marxab yaa ramadan.

Pure talent I tell ya. Simply brilliant. Where is my hometown jokore, Bob the zulu man You heard the man doing stand up rap with true delivery (deep voice and all) tackling big issues ranging from consumerism to financial insecurity. Over to you buddy gimme a one worthy of your Majengo roots. "I'm a nomad man, a man for the next kingdom, qaat and tubaako free,..." Qaraabo yaa ku daray...

"I’m a modern man, a man for the millennium. Digital and smoke free. A diversified multi-cultural, post-modern deconstruction that is anatomically and ecologically incorrect. I’ve been up linked and downloaded, I’ve been inputted and outsourced, I know the upside of downsizing, I know the downside of upgrading. I’m a high-tech low-life. A cutting edge, state-of-the-art bi-coastal multi-tasker and I can give you a gigabyte in a nanosecond! I’m new wave, but I’m old school and my inner child is outward bound. I’m a hot-wired, heat seeking, warm-hearted cool customer, voice activated and bio-degradable. I interface with my database, my database is in cyberspace, so I’m interactive, I’m hyperactive and from time to time I’m radioactive. Behind the eight ball, ahead of the curve, ridin the wave, dodgin the bullet and pushin the envelope. I’m on-point, on-task, on-message and off drugs. I’ve got no need for coke and speed. I've got no urge to binge and purge. I’m in-the-moment, on-the-edge, over-the-top and under-the-radar. A high-concept, low-profile, medium-range ballistic missionary. A street-wise smart bomb. A top-gun bottom feeder. I wear power ties, I tell power lies, I take power naps and run victory laps. I’m a totally ongoing big-foot, slam-dunk, rainmaker with a pro-active outreach. A raging workaholic. A working rageaholic. Out of rehab and in denial! I’ve got a personal trainer, a personal shopper, a personal assistant and a personal agenda. You can’t shut me up. You can’t dumb me down because I’m tireless and I’m wireless, I’m an alpha male on beta-blockers. I’m a non-believer and an over-achiever, laid-back but fashion-forward. Up-front, down-home, low-rent, high-maintenance. Super-sized, long-lasting, high-definition, fast-acting, oven-ready and built-to-last! I’m a hands-on, foot-loose, knee-jerk head case pretty maturely post-traumatic and I’ve got a love-child that sends me hate mail. But, I’m feeling, I’m caring, I’m healing, I’m sharing-- a supportive, bonding, nurturing primary care-giver. My output is down, but my income is up. I took a short position on the long bond and my revenue stream has its own cash-flow. I read junk mail, I eat junk food, I buy junk bonds and I watch trash sports! I’m gender specific, capital intensive, user-friendly and lactose intolerant. I like rough sex. I like tough love. I use the “F” word in my emails and the software on my hard-drive is hardcore--no soft porn. I bought a microwave at a mini-mall; I bought a mini-van at a mega-store. I eat fast-food in the slow lane. I’m toll-free, bite-sized, ready-to-wear and I come in all sizes. A fully-equipped, factory-authorized, hospital-tested, clinically-proven, scientifically- formulated medical miracle. I’ve been pre-wash, pre-cooked, pre-heated, pre-screened, pre-approved, pre-packaged, post-dated, freeze-dried, double-wrapped, vacuum-packed and, I have an unlimited broadband capacity. I’m a rude dude, but I’m the real deal. Lean and mean! Cocked, locked and ready-to-rock. Rough, tough and hard to bluff. I take it slow, I go with the flow, I ride with the tide. I’ve got glide in my stride. Drivin and movin, sailin and spinin, jiving and groovin, wailin and winnin. I don’t snooze, so I don’t lose. I keep the pedal to the metal and the rubber on the road. I party hearty and lunch time is crunch time. I’m hangin in, there ain’t no doubt and I’m hangin tough, over and out!" ~George Carlin, a comedic genius and poet extraodinaire Watch wit and radioactive delivery debuted on Leno's show -- here you go

Oodweyne, I’m short on time these days awoowe. I don’t have that many minutes to spare now either. Nevertheless you deserve an answer. I’m for lasting peace. Period. Perhaps what blew you off is the fact that I’m willing to accept a just, all inclusive and practical settlement even if it is a one presided by this TFG. That’s it I guess. That’s where you get all tangled up. How else can you explain the fact that you missed the four premises that I’ve listed in my post as the basis for negotiated settlement that holds water. Not only that I listed a criteria but I also enumerated a set of acceptable outcomes for the reconciliation to succeed. Look what the TFG has cooked up was not a practical and impartial congress. But the fact that it bowed to outside pressure and actually called, followed up, and convened a congress is in itself a step in the right direction. I fully supported the gesture. It could have been better and more practical but nevertheless kudos to them for going down that route. The congress have been boycotted by the opposition and perhaps rightly so for TFG presented itself as a non-partisan neutral mediator above the fray. They, both sides, can give it another try, tweaked the details a bit if they must, change the whole ball game if necessary but they got to start talking damn it! The alternative is not an option from where I sit at least. The Kalligii-Muslims of the site, young and impressionable joint, pseudo-nationalists, chicken hawks, hardcore secessionists (which I count you as a member) can put on a cyber show of outrage and shake their fist in the air all they want but prudent and more experienced awooweyaal see the writing on the wall all too well. Sxb there will be a time when y’all will realize that warring clans armed and exploited by regional foes trying to put pressure on each other means a lose-lose proposition for all sides and if left unchecked will run Somali affairs for the foreseeable future. At the sorry state Somalis are today, the only effective checking they can come up with for their own good is to strike a political deal. Benadir conference was a start. It didn’t pan out as some of us expected it would. There is another one coming up in Eritrea. My hope is that the coalition (divergent interests, different political persuasion, diff clan background) out there will find a common ground to mount a meaningful opposition. Perhaps with forceful and legit opposition open to negotiated settlement will leave the TFG no option but to oblige. The task for the coalition is to deal with the personalities within the coalition that could jeopardize their game plan. Who knows perhaps this will be it -- the real deal -- two sides of the equation talking about ways and means to end the conflict. And who know perhaps you too might come around and support the "other" Somalia quest for peacefull existence Waa siday tahay,

NN, Yesterday is dead and gone. This TFG is a wounded duck nursed and tended by foreign powers. Politiking is an art and those who excel in the art tend to deal their hand from position of strength. TFG is in Benadir. It has the backing of the powers that be. The opposition has proved that this TFG can not survive in a day without Ethiopian protection. EU and the rest of the world agree that Somalia's problems is clannish at its roots with a bit of camel boy politics undercurrents going on on the background. Islamists have upped the game by elevating the body politics to a new heights with monumental implications. Facts being that obvious one can not help but to see that this conflict won't go away without warring sides (hardcore gees) settling their differences in a dirrin. If this TFG succeeds by having foreign hands tame their opposition today you will risk an uprising tomorrow in another disasterous corrective action taken by malcontents a la civil war. De ja vu all over again. Awoowe Inna Yussuf's days are numbered (age will sneak upon him) and with it is the whole clan's standing. It stands to reason that one is ought to put his eggs on a negotiated settlement that addresses each and every grievances out there. To get there you need to listen to the line of reasoning that argues the road to lasting peace in Somalia runs through the reconciliation process. It is good to put a face with the opposition a face that Ethios can not dismiss it with their usual terrorist card. Remember GOP could lose the election come to next round. Meaning Ethios green light to play ball in its eastern foe's backyard might change to red with no amber warning in transition in 16 months time. Let the talking proceed lest the tired, abused, maimed, tortured, murdered, looted, and robbed innocent civilians enjoy a lasting peace.

Well reasoned and well presented argument right there. Dang! talk about persuasive writing, this is it fellaz. PS: as the author mentioned, energy security is what makes world go round.

Where is the army Inna Hassan Jama supposedly leads?

Real and effective counter weight opposition is on the horizon. We'll see if they can pull this one off. Looks like they get a game plan which will deny the TFG the terrorist card. I wouldn't be surprised if Uncle Sam forces the TFG to sit down with the folks that have what it takes to get Benadir calm and safe. We'll see how this one goes down.

Apple's "the beat goes on" special event.