Several glaring facts: 1. Tigre regime is sleeplessly watchful. 2. They’ve equated the uprising in the east to terrorism and got a nodding approval from Washington. They have the will, tools, and cover to commit genocide. Collective punishment, torture of the leading figures the junta knows the drill. 3. Amhara are not interested in destroying Ethiopia. Quite to the contrary they want to reverse the regional autonomy (very popular among historically oppressed ethnic groups) Tigre constituted. Right there you have a substantial divergence in direction, conflict of interests and goals. 4. Oromo’s Christian vs. Muslim division is not only ground for exploitation but a concern of ethnic war from within. 5. Somali vs. Oromo territorial dispute over Diredoba, Jigjiga, and Harrar frontier is an easy hot button waiting to be pushed and will be pushed in the event Tigre’s survival comes to fore. 6. Within Somalis, there are divisions - coalition of clans are satisfied with the killinka style autonomy all the while the ONLF wants to secede All these facts (pitfalls) not withstanding, the opposition lacks basis to cook its plans. Somalia is the perfect ground for proxy activities - something ONLF lacks and Eritrea wishes to have. Ethiopia made its moves long time ago and has covered all the basis. Today it has three regimes to count on: SL, PL, and TFG. Absent of relatively strong and politically stable and independent Somali state destroying Ethiopia is a wishful thinking. In my trade we define scope of work first and foremost before spilling ink on the board. Second we define and analyze hazards. The scope of work as it stands now is not manageable. The consequences of messing up eighty million nation is up there in monumental proportions. Anarchy, starvation, and foreign interference (biased toward Ethiopia) are some of the immediate consequences. Out of frustration Xiin suggested to take the fight to the enemy. Why? He said they meaning the junta there are killing us out there in our own backyard. The reason he want to harm Addis regime is merely to distract them and have them get defensive. That way the multivariable equation is reduced one degree. Now if one is willing to commit to such undertaking/challenge as to bringing down 80 million nation to its knees one ought to have what it takes to pull such stunt. Who will do it and how? How you overcome the obvious pitfalls? And what mitigating plans are in place to fend off the fallout? Granted Ethiopia is composed of ethnic collections (nations) full of grievances and the tyrannical junta gives them every reason to rise up and change the status quo. The thing though is that each nation or ethnic group has its own divisions and the junta with all of the state’s trappings at its disposal knows how to exploit them. It is a two way street. It escapes me why would one go that far and commit one’s self to a project with such scope and consequences and avoid ending conflict through reconciliation process however difficult that proves to be. Again look before you leap. Get things right at home first before you day dream ways and means of pulling the rug under the Tigre regime.

Finally. It took a while but it is now happening. Looking good.

Castro, Couple of corrections is in order. Granted Mogadishu is by far the most populous city of the state. Obviously, the two million figure is not based on any formal citation. That is nothing but exaggerated stats you come up with in order to bolster your feeble argument. Whatever the numbers are the majority of Mogadishu residents are sitting out on this fight. That is something you need to reflect on first before you extrapolate. Second correction: those who chose to sit it out can indeed do a great deal. It is your prerogative to nitpick actualities on the ground for arguments sake. However, it suffices to mention the fact that Turki is fighting the good fight but Jawhar residents are not. One is in the bushes of Ganaane while the other is closer than close. Squaring this fact with your speculation exposes a deep-rooted emotional tantrum. Enough said. Thirdly I have no idea how you define enemy. Simply put, an enemy is a hostile force adverse to one’s security, well being, interests, property, and what not. In this context, many Somalis will qualify as an enemy and in fact see some of their fellow Somalis as the enemy. Ethiopia has been a friend to many Somalis when they were most vulnerable to the enemy. Recent histories abound with many evidences. To cite few who considered Ethiopia a friend and their fellow Somalis an enemy at the time are SSDF, SNM, USC, and RRA. The first three the state and the clans of the leading figures were considered the enemy whereas the latter had convinced themselves that Aideed Jr. and his clan militia were the devil incarnate. Finally it seems to me that we have run the dirrin argument to the ground. I thought we had an honest difference on the subject. Reading your emotional diatribe and the fact it is devoid of reasoning convinces me otherwise. May I remind you that RRA, Jareer Weyn, Gibil Cad - true victims of Somali civil war - have, willingly and knowingly, (after all the tragedies they have been through) sat with their nemessis. Dirrin is absolutely necessary. How, where, when, and under what terms -- all these details are debatable and open for discussion.

My uncle? How so Mr. Mujahid fii SabiiliLaah?

Chicken Hawks Dressed In Military Gear Acting Up On Internet Jungle Waa Siday Tahay Investigative report By John Van Ivonavich *Second Life Guru Coming Up

Originally posted by Kashafa: Forgive me for resorting to mockery, but how else is one supposed to react to fantasy-based thinking. Billahi Calayk, the only thing more magical than Baashi's dirin process is your foriegn inteference idea. And now we got the Let's Destroy Ethiopia guns out ? What is this ? Sheeko xariiro Month ? Kashafa, Dirrin is the way to go you chicken hawk. You seem to reside in Venus baby boy. You are feeding the gallery a salt-free soft baby food. Specific minority are taking hits day in and day out all the while the rest of the country are watching that drama from a distance. Talk about sheeko baralleey! I’m hearing one right now. Look this is no brainer. It is not a rocket science. Do you wanna take on a sizable portion of Somalis in collaboration with established state with intact army and international cover -- you better have grassroot support and popular uprising. As of today you simply don’t have that. This war is not Somalis war. If it is they are not doing the fight. Check.

Taa xal uma hayo boowe. Waxan diidanahay qoloda jifada hoose ah ee tidhi is miidaamin baan Somalia ku xoreyneynaa. Waxaan kaloo diidanahay kuwa buka ee eeda reer gaara huwiyay oo ka weecweecanaya halka xaalku ka qurunsan yahay. War heedhe innagu isku bog beynu akhrinaa malaha. Haatan waxan ku leeyahay shidada inta la iska daayo sidii dirrinta la isugu imaan lahaa ha la doon doono. Inta reerayoowga kale ee BBCda dhegaysanyaa bal qoloda Benadir ku adkaatay jeego jeegona u hurdaan hadde in Xabashku saaxibadii guusha u hoyinayo ma war baa ka taagan. Widaay annigu reer hoose oo la gumaadayo oo dubuhu si gaar ah ugu dhacayo baan arkaa. Waxan kaloo arkaa ciyaalka xaafada oo leh sidaa ku wada oo laateega ku kabanaya qurbaha oo biidh kale aan u tarayn. War toloow colka jooja oo heshiiska iyo nabada adaa ku nool ee taa ha la raadiyo uun baan leeyahay. Allow ma irri! PS: Awoowe qaansada ma adaa ku dhaca oo jebin kara? Ma waxaad wadaa Dhagoolkii yiri sac baa seeri ka ciyay! Dhagaheedba ma leh ee muu innaka daayo weeye warku.

2009 Super bowl in Benadir Waa Siday Tahay Special Edition By Af-Miinshaar Inna Laba-Garaadle *Reporting from Biibito reer Hebel hebel The final game is in the offing. The marked year is 2009. The TFG’s token legitimacy is up for review. Col. Abdullahi wants to be the power broker behind the new setup. According to Waxa-La-Yirri nuhnuh, he has already lined up his ducks. Ethiopia will back him up even if his loyal Puntlanders go awol on him. The old man is not going back to Jirriiban. He wants to tame the opposition by any means necessary. Benadir clans are as far apart as they have ever been. The animosity between the clans that reside in Benadir has deepened ever since Tigre boys have invaded the national seat at the behest of their “friendly” Somali leaders. Col. Abdullahi is banking on that fact. Puntland leadership are backing the TFG in many ways. They have contributed a substantial cut of the port revenues to the TFG coffins. The militia of the region is now part and parcel of the TFG “army”. This arrangement is only verbal and it is a way of boosting Inna Yussuf’s chance to tame what is known in this part of the world Qarran-Diid. The logic is if Inna Yussuf is removed from the current position Puntland will recoil and play regional autonomy card. Somaliland is officially part of the civil war. The leadership there are siding with Xabsade, someone who doesn’t share their secession goals but opposes the current leadership in the other fiefdom. To Hargeisa that event was a good chance to jack up the pressure on Garowe. It also gives Riyale’s UDUB party - a codename for clan alliances of Hargeisa-Berbera-Borame clans - a breathing space. It is a war time and the boys from Togdheer and West Sanaag will do the fighting. The rest of the country are laying low sort of business as usual. Except few parliamentarians in TFG pockets, they have succeeded in staying neutral. UIC has broken up into four factions. The pragmatists Col. Aways, Adow, and Sheriff are open to forge alliances with other likeminded forces even if that takes them to Asmara or even enter a dialogue with Col. Yussuf provided the venue is outside Somalia and Ethiopia withdrawal tops the agenda, the Al-Shabaabs, young, hardened, and committed Islamists who wants to establish an Islamic Republic by any means necessary, Turki faction operating in Ganaane bushes perfect playgoround for guerilla war, and finally good ol’ USC members from Diaspora and local militia who find the TFG military drills spearheaded by Mr. Dheere unbearable. As of today UIC lacks unity and strength not to mention it has no grassroots support outside Benadir and an isolated pocket in Ganaane. The lineup: PL vs. SL (militray) Div 1 PL, TFG, Addis vs. Al-Shabaab, USC remnants (military) Div 2 Gedo Boys vs. Turki militia (militray) Div 3 TFG vs. Asmara Alliances (political) Div 4 The game will officially start in 2008. We have already seen “friendly” warm up.

Line up your ducks first. How about that Xiinoow Ka tirtir Ethiopia in ur dictionary sxb. Ethiopia is a problem no doubt but all things considered it is a mere enabler. Ethiopian backing is sought and at times competed by guess who your fellow Somalis!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! You wanna solution huh you do oo Ilaaheey kugu ogyahay. Waa tahay e remove the burning need for Ethiopian political, economic (qadaadiic), and military backing. J U S T, I N C L U S I V E, N E G O T I A T E D, S E T T L E M E N T will simply do. Is it difficult? Ya bet ya. Is it commplicated? Absolutely! But this dacar bitter medicine is what will deliver Somalia from the gunnimada ay ku jidho. Awoowe dirrintii ma ogolaatay misse wali maaweelo bay joogtaa arrintu? Widaay waa adigii abwaanka ahaa ee bal dib u goco tixdii iyada ahayd: Gacantii nin lihi gooynayaa waa gumuduntaaye, Nin walaalkii geed ugu jiraa, geesi noqon waa.

Talac talaceey ku nacay. War runta awoowayaal ha ka weecweecanina. Waxa is hayaa waa Somali. Xabashka iyagaa u yeertay oo ku kala hormarayay. Haatana wali iyagaa doonaya oo hoosta ku wata. Dalaal iyo malaal waxuba waa carabta deenteeda baan maqli jiray. Qaraabo Amxaarka waxba ha ku rafanina oo ha isboohinina ee talo yaa idiin taalee inta isu tagtaan talo keena ama ninkii roon reerka ha u haro. Soo ma ahayn violence begets violence. Iyadii bay joogtaa.

Somalia is not occupied. Benadir is. Bay, Bakool, Hiiraan, the two Shabeele's, the two Juba's, Gedo, Galgaduud, PL, and SL residents made crystal clear where they stand. None of them wants to lift their faryareey. They don't want to help Benadir residents out. According to their actions, that fight is not theirs. They couldn't care less if the whole place is put in the furnace! Why???????????????

Heard it on NPR this morning during the commute. I can’t be bothered to post the link but if you google it I’m sure the topic will come up. The book they wrote is titled “We Are Smarter Than Me”. Interesting stuff.

The tomboy above me calls spade a spade. Qandac ay ka wadaa hee la garo. As to the topic, go for it qallanjo. Why, you asked. You know him, he knows you. Courtship is an art. You two have already rehearsed the play without even knowing it. The usual and difficult, at times, icebreaker is not necessary in this case. No player worries. No camel toe hunter xarfaan bent to play on ur emotions. You cut a lot of crap out of the courtship process not to mention the decision time is shortened. Be very selfish on this one. If the dude is Mr. Right, snatch him before that other bajaq takes him to her mundul. The pool of responsible dudes is shrinking nowadays -- at least that’s what I heard from Muxubo muuno-beeshayee, moosinkeed waa la moodayee crowd. Downside: rejection. If that were to happen you are busted. Expect a lil ego bruising if not down right depression. But remember taking risks on the stuff that matters is what makes the world round. Trade-off: Losing a “best” friend vs. gaining a reliable lifetime partner you know you can raise Gallad iyo Maandeeq with. Ileyn talo iskuma kaa sheegto. Phew! *Awoowe moment*

Yup. Trap is not how I would like to characterize this for it could go either way. This is how I would put it. The conflict over Las Ano is paper shredder for the recognition card. Hargeisa and Garowe fighting in Nugaal valley means one thing to informed and unbaised observers: civil war in the recovery zones. And that snatches away an important card from the hands of Hargeisa. I got the gist of maahmaah of the one-eyed old senile habar in search of a boy she has no way of knowing even if he introduces himself. It is a fitting parable. But I beg to differ. The senile hag is not even looking for the boy! She is trying to throw a mingis like diryaan oo diryaan, diryaan dooxada ka yeer, diryaan oo dirririglee, diryaan oo duul maqan u yeedh. She is doing all of tha crap to revive a dead boy. She's praying for the gods to give a midget out of the deceased boy. Awoowe xidigaha sare igula sheekayso. Waryee ma ila socotaa mise waan fasiraa?

How To Excel In Somali Politics -- A guide for Cut throat Somali Realpolitik Practitioners By Prof Inna Kaadi-Najaasle and Graduate student Allay-Badde Ali Amxaar Center of Servants of Power -- Thin Tank Interest Group University of Hard Knocks, La Wala Land, Somalia Introduction In order to identify constituents that are easily controlled, manipulated, and led, a rigorous method of gathering and documenting the emotional needs of the target constituents is necessary. Blending the serious business of getting ahead over your rivals if possible and getting even when necessary with military style resiliance and resolve needs discipline, patience, and unflinching focus on the final objectives practitioner wants to achieve. We have the working model that shows how to take the golden top seat. The economics of the business of beating your rivals are not covered in this paper. It is different subject on its own right. Suffice to say it is very expensive enterprise. The business of coming out from this brutal fight in one piece is an art. It is not for the principled, religious, or ethical people. We will lay out character chart that shows a list of values that need suppressing. This guide aids in finding out target natural political base, possessing intimate knowledge of its prominent members, interest groups, business elites, its history, existing disputes within community at large in which the target base is part of. Field knowledge described in this guide utilizes Diaspora expertise, mobilizes resources in novel ways that rivals Republican political machine in the Beltway, invents new history, and creates a reusable hot button issues that makes difficult to address, compensate, or put past grievances in to bed. We intend to compile dozen or so ways of disseminating information that is favorable to practitioners. Strategies explored in this white paper include yellow journalism the nomadic way, old ceel-gaab style, songs and poems composed by passionate and motivated writers for the constituents highlighting grievances, emphasizing their noble origins, exhorting them to fight for their dignity, instilling pride in youngsters, and bottle-feeding them with refined and sanitized propaganda that will strengthen practitioners political position. This guide has been written with expectation that the practitioners are familiar with governing procedures, standards, and specs of the tribal communities in Somali peninsula. Compliance with BTX 452.2R qabiil standard is required. There are no beginner courses on the tribal matrix offered in this edition.

Adduunyo. Awoowe they are killing me out here. Busy as hell and I got no time to nail some outstanding issues I have in my vault. Waa side do you see how things are proceeding. Damn! extremely interesting stuff. I have a hunch -- ready -- write it down for future refrences purposes aight here I go: If Yussuf survives this time around then he will get his wish in lining up the ducks for superbowl come to 2009. This guy is a killer tactician with no heart wallahi. Kismayo and Las Ano are necessary casualties from his perspective vs. what goes down in 2009. Mar aan minutes fiican helo.

Brother Neyruus bro have Las Ano folks bring back the boys from Benadir. This is no brainer buddy. Take the tinted glasses off for a minute and see this sh*t for what it is. Wallahi Bilaahi if Xabsade didn't flip and I must admit he had a point in the clan matrix logic and the politiking of the area habraha would have been in each others throat. Riyale backers from certain sub clan allied by another certain sub clan Do not want to let it go all the while some certain sub clan is dead serious to serve as the head of the fiefdom this time around. Bless Xabsade and Fu'ad they had their Allah given opening and Hargeisa scored a touchdown. Granted the majority of Sool and nearby residents don't want Hargeisa. The thing is though their boys are in Benadir. It is what it is. I understand what you are saying but tough luck this is a tough biz and blinking is like commiting a suicide. Gotta prioritize and focus on the ball. Ya let it go and it will bounce and exactly that's what happened.

Dead on money. My goodness PINR nailed it on a pole!! Shiish. Informed analysis. Right on right on. Let the game begin. The conclusion of this one will be the deal breaker we've always been waiting for. Ship Made Out of Paper article is on hold indef.

Kix kix awryee Neyruus halkee bay iska qaban la'dahay awoowe? Laas caano has been given and the operative word is given to secessionists as a handout on a golden plate by allied Fu'aad, Xoogsade and other Lab-garaadle of the native subclans. Tell me you are joking bro

Johhny boy how life has been treeting you lately? Awoowe addiga iyo bajaq ma kala dhamaateen wali Are you still da man up in General Section or xaalku as your adeer in Sweden used to say waa Biciid ku jab or something along that line kix kix. As to my man Oodweyne well he's someone I can deal with. The man has his constituents to please -- as you are aware of the SL idea was sold to the crowd and Mr. Oodweyne feels obliged to hold the line. Laakiin kolkuu uu yimaado inna rag dirrin uu ku qaxweeynayo waad iska garanaysaa inuu indhaha hoos u roganayo. Shakespeare baa berri qodox muday iyo Lord Macne-ma-Leh yaa berri sidan yirri buu ku haraadayaa. War ninyahow ninka ii raadi aan Las Caano ka wareystee sida mujaahidiintu guusha u hanteen ha ka sheekeeyee Xiinoow things are cooking up. Gimme your caanteyn iina dhaqso beryahan waqtigii baa la isku ciriiriyay e.

Jokes aside how else will this be settled. They fought over Maandeeq in vain. They did all they could do to run the other side to the ground and yet winner takes all notion didn't pan out. Awoowe dirrin bey tagaysaa aakhirka. Cid kale ha weydiin.

Righ on the money. Big dirrin for all sides is what it takes to settle this one. Where, when, and how are details that need to be ironed out but cease-fire followed by genuine reconciliation campaign and eventually the real deal is the way forward. Statesmen are needed and as far as I can see they are either six feet under or in the wombs of their mothers. TFG is weak, the calender is tight, the opposition don't have game plan, the recovery zones are at each others throat, Ethiopia is overstretched, Bush's term is ending -- perfect time to get it on. Wabigaa fatahay hadaanan waabin karahayn, Walbahaarku waa ii eg yahay iyo inaan walaacaa e, Waji baa far lagu meyrayaa beesha wadi meyso! Over and out.

Caamir, Mr. Oodweyne will be back and when he does I will run him to the ground In the meantime Inna Habar-Shiish's writeup that appeared on the Durriyada Poineer will be on hold. I would like to have him heads up before I put it up. Emperor, How can you have conversation with people who know no facts and understand no history? My position is crystal by the way. You just couldn’t put your teeth into it. Sharpen your teeth buddy sharpen ‘em.

Ngonge, war ii kaadi aan ragga warka deeqsiiyee awoowe! Ship Made out of Paper Durriyada Poineer By Dhan-xiir Inna Habar Shiish *Khabar aad moog tahay *We'll be back* Mr. Oodweyne ha la ii raadiyo aan isku yara tuur-tuuree kaftan aan turxaan lahayn. Labada hore ha iga cadeynina oo waa bigeys fadlan.

Back To Square One Waa Siday Tahay Magazine By War-Mooge Inna Wax-Mayaqaan *Commentary Innagoo lamaana iyo Laba naf qaybsi leh Talo geed ku laashee. Addigaa is lumiyoo, Isu loogay cadawgoo Libintaa i siiyee. Waa addigase liitee, Leexadu ku sidatee, Hadba laan cuskanayee!! Liibaanteed adduunyada, Ruuxna laasan maayee, Maxaa luray naftaadii. Someone is probably signing those lines out loud. TFG has handed the best political opp good ol’ USC partners could ever hope. Al-Shabaabs can claim victory too. The PM has failed. With all the might he has been given, all the regional representation, all the international endorsement bestowed to his side of Somali conflict, all the monies dished without bean counters going through the invoices, Mr. Gedi failed to deliver. He has killed enough of his Somali civilians, destroyed enough shelters, and displaced enough refugee only to concede defeat to his rival clan jackal. Only Inna Yussuf has the luxury to dictate what goes down in Benadir and when things don’t turn out the way they supposed to be he has the leeway to deflect the blame. Lets tally the scores for a minute. In a zero sum game where TFG has to lose the contest for the other side to win or vice versa, it is a draw -- the worst position Somalia can be. The Ethiopian presence is a must for the TFG. Absent of grassroots support, and/or just, practical, and negotiated settlement, TFG is in need of protection. Where and how that security comes about is not high in the TFG agenda. In the eyes of the opposition this means a continued occupation -- an occupation they themselves necessitated!! On the other side of the coin the opposition - the coalition of UIC political wing, Al-Shabaabs, Good ol’ USC clan members, and neglected and ignored parliamentarians, nationalists, secessionists - understand the political calendar all too well. African Union troops are not coming, Ethiopia cannot sustain an occupation for too long, and token legitimacy of TFG will expire in 2009. Burning Somalia is a win for them. It is hard to resist the “I told you so” phrase! In the meantime the state will remain fragmented entity open for continuing foreign exploitation. Pseudo-nationalists will keep shedding tears - sincerely - for they know little about the nature of the Somali clan real politik. Puntlanders will keep defending their man. Somalilanders will keep blaming Puntlanders for their shattered dream and Benadir will keep on shooting themselves in the foot. In other words, Somalia will keep on fussing and fighting and Ethiopians will keep on weighing their national security interests as they should. Today Gedi exits the stage with stash of money in his account just as Galeyr did his time in the office. Yussuf is the one who will inherit all the headaches. He has to back up the case he made to the neighboring states and to the International community which is basically that the TFG has not failed per se - it is the executive branch that failed. In other words Gedi could not do the job he is elected to do. Kind of used “useful i d i o t” In this line of reasoning the outcomes of the non-political reconciliations is worth implementing. Still the UIC, one branch of major Somali clan (has grievances), and the Asmara group are not to be dealt with under this rationale. It is back to square one. On the sub-clan level, Kismayo is still under the Gedo boys, Puntland has became a shop owned by few elite afar-jeeblayaal, and now Darwiishland is tilted to non-loyal native sub-clans who have good relations with an enemy clan bent to undermine Yussuf’s interests. No amount of Intaad tageysaad, ku tiigsanaayaan, turunturoodee! winning will do this time around. The game is getting simpler by the day. It is all about personal ambition disguised as clan interests. We’re in the final minutes of fourth quarter.