Gartay. What’s up with Faroole! Why is he committing with all these unforced gaffes a la Biden? He talks too much awoowe. Why in the world would you table your grievances in public, make a case for them, examine all the shortcomings on of your political opponent, and – listen this – state unequivocally your bottom line in the outcome of a meeting yet to be held??? Awoowe odaygu waxba ma hambeyn waxa na moodaa in uu khatif ka galay xeerka Somalida ee ahaa in aan fagaaraha lagu garnaqsan. Waxay ku haboonayd in uu yiraahdo “anniga iyo madaxda SFG-da wax badan baan ka wada hadalnay, waxna waa noo laaban yihiin. Waa jiraan meelo aan ku kala aragti duwan nahay oo aan isku diidnay haatan waxa rajeynaynaa in aan wax badan isla gorfeyno oo aan isla meel dhigno. Waxaa naga go’an in aan Somaliya dib loo celin oo xoogaaga yar eee nasoo dhex-galay si dhawso ah dawo laagu helo

Abtigiis;958884 wrote: We cannot run away from correct principles just because a bad man has embraced them. However, Faroole wants endless center-region conflict . That cannot and must not be granted. If President Hassan plays his cards well, Faroole will be exposed for the dangerous sell out he is . Fellas hold your horses: we might learn from our resident poet. Awoowe elaborate the two claims above [in bold]. 1. Faroole has interest in, and desires to see, unstable Somalia stuck with perpetual and endless center-region conflict. 2. Faroole is a dangerous spy for the enemies of the state and a sell out deserving to be exposed for the high crimes he is engaged in. Hefty charges I must admit uttered by SOL resident poet -- one of the most beloved SOL nomad Awoowe fill us in.

Really?

Game on! What a game...and so far no soul has been lost because of it. There was a time when this blood sport (particulary in that neck of the wood) required human sacrifice. No more It's a beauty! This is a high poker game. The entire system of governance the country will be adopting is at stake. Some folks tried to tweak it to their liking but Faroole is not having any of that I would have liked Gandi better as a partner in this tango but hey you take what you have and see how it pans out. Hope Madoobe is as solid as Gandi in understanding the depth of the dispute. Ganaane river in its entirety with Kismayo as its hub forming a federal member state within federal Somalia is something no one could have predicted a couple of years ago. It looks like it is has arrived (with minor tweaking at the prephery north of Luuq district). Get this one right and you could attract Somali assets in East Africa. You could also bring refugee to home and that my friends is blessing from Allah. Could Madoobe deliver the goods?

Oodweyne;957042 wrote: Baashi, Saaxiib, you are bit “touchy” (for some unknown reason) about what the implication of my argument was meant to be. For there was no “insinuation” on my part on any thing; however what there was, was essentially a way to show how these current fight is about something else entirely. In other words, this current political wrangling is nominally about a different political interpretation of the constitution as it specifies what federalism is ought to be about. But in real sense and in the object truth of it, is about whether Somalia – in future sense – will be a “confederation” of clans and their states (even if the law says it’s a federal system). Or whether that “undefined future” will be one whereby clans will have their “states” but a central authority of far and above what the clans have legally empowered her with (or delegated to her), will exist in the country at it’s center. This the question in which Jubbaland will define. And in that sense, to put it, more crudely, the question will be: whether the central federal government will exist independent of whatever political favor and legal grace – grudgingly or otherwise – the clans and their states grants to the that central government; or whether that central federal government will only exist at the “indulgence” of the clans and their states? Consequently, If the future is that of “self-assured-central-federal-government” that will act at the behest of the country as a whole while taking on board the “feelings/sentiment/interest” of the clans and their states, then we will have “centralized version” of a federal government. If however, the future federal government will be one whereby the authority entrusted to her will be one in which it’s grudgingly given to her by the clans and their states; or it’s power given to her by the “sovereign indulgence” of the clans and their states, then that future will be one in which we can define as a “confederacy of clans/states” , regardless of what the constitution says. This is, to belabor the point, what Jubbaland, will tell us, particularly when it's eventually gets to be resolved. This means, if Hassan Shiekh prevail in here (or at least his reading of Somalia's future prevails), then, Jubbaland may come to exist (in one form or the other) but it will be a state that will not “augur” the future direction of Somalia into the "confederacy path” . If however, the current argument of Ahmed Madoobe (and to some extend, that of Imam Farole) prevail, particularly in their incessant talk of interpreting the direction of that federal dispensation as they understand it, then, as surely days follows night, the future of the country will be one in which a “confederation of clan-centric states” will result it at the logical end of the day, regardless of what the said constitution of the country may say about the political dispensation of the country. And as you can see the struggle to “define” the future of Somalia will largely hinge which of those two "competing “visions” prevails against the other. However the sad part in all of these is that it’s not Somalis who will decide that "outcome" , but it’s the same powers-that-be, who cobbled together Somalia in its current reality. And all these Somali actors could do is try to “convince” those powers-that-be that their strategical interest in which they have in a “secure” Somalia, chimes in with their particular vision of the future of Somalia. This is the current fight that Imam Farole and Hassan Sheikh are furiously engage in at the moment, particularly as this dance over Jubbaland continuous. Awoowe that bit was directed to Mintid. Time is scarce commodity at my end and my post might appear incoherent as I am really really busy and have people coming in my office in the middle of my writing a reply. This is, by far, one of the well-thought write-up you’ve ever posted on SOL. I have to honestly say that you do understand the political goings of Somalia. And I couldn’t agree with you more. That was an excellent write-up my cyper-friend. The only thing I would add (and this is a correction of sort) is that neither Maboobe nor Faroole wants to institute clan-centric confederacy. The current draft constitution calls for Federal System. The Faroole and the block he represents insist on having safeguards and checks and balances mechanism be enshrined in the Constitution. The reason for his incessant insistence on having Federal System of governance was to make sure that no constituent have the chance to politically dominate the government or abuse the power of the state. In a sense what the Federal System confers to the clans out of power at any given time in the future is the confidence that the power is divided among federal and regional institutions and in no way will be consolidated in the hands of the clans in power. This cure is one of the lessons learned from the two decades the military junta was in power which necessitated the painful correction Somalis had to live with in the last two decades. Everything else you said in your post is reasonable and for the most part true.

Oodweyne summed it up pretty well. I don't know what the West will do and who among the key players they will support when the tough gets going and the rubber really hits the road. What I do know is that multinational corporations have an interest in dusting off their valid contracts with Somali government (pre-1991) and the only legal way to achieve that singular objective is to shore up Hassan’s government. Denying non-state actors refuge where their mischievous plans is concocted figure prominently the national security calculus of big powers. Somalia is not out of woodworks yet. SFG has the legitimacy and holds the levers of the power but the ship of the state is not seaworthy yet and not in a shape in cruising the high sees. Before all the four engines are fired up the captain, the co-pilot, the officers, the folks who takes care of the ship and maintain it have to establish a command structure amd get on the same page. That ahs not happen yet. For Madoobe and Faroole is now or never game. They need to make sure that Benadir as the center does not have undue leverage over the periphery. They need to make sure that power is constitutionally divided into two tier levels. They need to insist on the built in safeguards in the balance and checks form works NOW before Mogadishu assumes Inna Barre powers of long gone era. Awoowe this is high poker game and Faroole is playing it like a pro. Madobe is so far so good and only time will tell if he is worthy partner to play the game as it should be played. Now, your insinuation and the doc-ka-yeer fella cheerleading for that line of thinking let me tell you what I think of the players. Factoring in the new found legitimacy and the power of pulpit Hassan has, the SFG legitimacy and its success in protecting Somalia from another social correction is solely depend on how it deals with the question of Federalism. If SFG acts responsibly and respects the division of power as envisioned in the Draft Constitution it will retain its legitimacy and ensure the alarmed constituency that the social contract is intact. The trust building effort among mistrusting and traumatized public is where this SFG should focus on and spend its effort.

Homunculus;956916 wrote: Somalis and their "I'll throw my toys out of the pram" mentality. I can understand the Jubaland issue since it's an ideological+tribal issue but if every region's elder start behaving like children then there is no end conflict in Somalia. Consider this is as the side effect of the Federalism. There are guidelines for establishing a federal member state. These guidelines are enshrined in the constitution. Hiiraan folks and their childish tantarums will give Hassan a powerful exhibit A of making the case against federalism of Hiiraan variety.

nuune;956774 wrote: ^^ Another word, galkey siibteen iyagoon xuub-dillaacsanin. Pretty much

Inna Idiinle marka la tabiyey in loolanka Mullaaxo loogu jidho laga badin doono buu waxa uu su'aalay sababtu saa loo yidhi. Waxa loo sheegay ninka ku heystaa inuu yahay Weerar Bulxan oo ahaa nin af-maal ah oo tixihiisii jacaeylka ee uu u tiriyey Mulaaxo ay si caam ah u caan baxeen. Nuur Idiinle waxa laga hayaa oraahdan oo noqotay maah-maah hal ku dheg ah: "Cag weyntaa gabyi" meaning that money will talk as he was one of the wealthiest of Ciid iyo Ceelcad region. Now, any rational player will have to set aside the emotianal slogans and chants and consider the economics of the region and the fact that only member states of the international community have the legal pass to enter national contracts or sign bilateral agreements with other states.

Oh! great. Back channel communication is still open Looks like a compromise is in the offing or is it

PasserBy;956781 wrote: The Somali President is fighting a losing battle. Jubaland ,for all practical purposes, is on the ground. Instead of fighting for its demise, he should work within to tweak it a bit. The days when the Mogadishu clan swayed an almost absolute power are long gone. Just as Showans of Ethiopia, the Mogadishu clans of Somalia have to adjust to the new reality. The peripheries have as much say as the center as to how the country is to be run. A genuine Federal system is required. Sophism won't do. First, second and last three senetences are on the mark Don't know about Showans but Mogadishu clans in the young history of Somalis have never swayed absolute power over any clan or territory.

Tillamook;956822 wrote: ^ Hubka aad ka hadlaysid muxuu yahay? Nobody is gonna fight anytime soon, which is the beauty of this political brinkmanship over Jubaland, and that's because of the foreign forces present in Somalia. Unlike the past when Somalis used the gun to try to solve their differences, it is a whole new ball game with the presence of these neocolonialist armies. If there is going to be any true victor over this Kismayu issue, it will be through political maneuvering only and who at the end of the day can galvanize a large portion of Somalis to their side. As it stands, Culosow will loose because he refuses to utilize the most powerful weapon he possesses which gives him legitimacy in the eyes of all Somalis, and that's the constitution. President Hassan Shiekh Mahamud: Please abide by the constitution and watch all your opponents wither away! Hear! hear!

N.O.R.F;956817 wrote: A little late in the day for this Baashow. Markii la Iis wada hubeeyey they should play nice? NORF how's life been treating you lately awoowe? Still in ME or are you back at home? Hope all is well. Yaa is hubeeyey? Waar ninyahow hawshu waa sideedii oo dhanka gudaha ilaa haatan waa ok oo shido badan kama jidho laakiin haddii aan wax laga beddelin sida ay ku socoto waxa ila tahay inay tageyso meel aan laga soo celin karin. I wrote that piece late yesterday on my way out of the office in a hurry Waqtigii baa nalugu cidhiidhiyey awoowe. But make no mistake the politiking of it is still captivating...to me at least. The only foul play I don't like about this tournament is when contestants appeal to the arbiters in Nairobi or Addis

Somali political leaders should play nice or the fragile peace folks are enjoying in the major cities are in danger to be lost. As always this zero sum game we've been practicing for the last three decades will compel the losers or those who think they are at disadvantage to seek support from neighboring states as was the case with SDDF, SNM, USC and SPM when the laba kacleynta kacaanka slogan meant only Father Siyad has the wisdom and foresight to know what's good for the state and anyone who dared to doubt his leadership was labelled qarran-diid. The course SFG, PL and JL is on is a dangerous course and it is heading to a deadly confrontation. This state of quarrelsome disagreement is not serving anyone's interest except neighboring states who understand the value of making use of proxies in order to farther their strategic interest in this region and beyond. I understand why Jubaland folks feel betrayed by SFG leadership. I understand why Puntland is alarmed by the way SFG is conducting itself. I am not sure I understand SFG's belligerence! Last few weeks it was SFG President Hassan making the rounds in neighboring countries and ratcheting up the pressure on Jubaland. He weighed his options and chose to deal with foreigners in resolving the issue in Kismayo instead of with his Somali partners. Today PL President Faroole is making the rounds in neighboring states and making the case that he is withdrawing his confidence in current crop of SFG leadership. We may like how this three-dimensional chess is being played and the resolve shown by the players to make moves that would make them the last man standing in the ring. It's fun to observe, predict or to root for one of the contestants. But when the contestants become suicidal nutcases and show no respect for their lives or the countless lives they are resonsible for or the interest of their people or the cause they are fighting for then the game ceases to be a game. Likewise any game worth of its name has rules of engagement or things that are off-limits that needs to be observed. The interest of the country should be utmost priority -- its territorial integrity, revival, reconstruction and stability should be sacrosanct. We should not support or root for when folks in the ring ignore the rules of the game or gamble on things that are off-limits. On behalf of SOL kor-joogto who enjoy following, observing and sharing their two cents of the current events in that corner of Africa we request Madobe, Fartaag, Faroole, Saacid, Jawaari and Hassan to play nice By Inna-Kaadi-Najaasle

Episode III and the final one aired last night. http://video.pbs.org/program/constitution-usa-peter-sagal/

I think the clan Somalis associate with Hiiraan is airing their grievances. That's what I think. It's not a biggie. Besides even if their desire is to establish a federal state of their own they need to do the groundwork and sell that idea to the folks they share the region with. Central Somalia is really tough place as the clans that share that region are not on the same page on the question of Central Federal State. Establishing a federal member state and building a grass root consensus is not a cakewalk. Don't be fooled by Jubaland. They just got lucky for obvious reasons -- clan composition, timing, power vacuum, foreign troops and what not -- the cosmic stars were in perfect alignment for this to take shape. Beledweyne folks need to hit on the road and perfect the ground game before they air their grievances in public.

Tillamook;956739 wrote: It is a shame that Faroole had no choice but to take his case to the power brokers of Somalia. I believe this would not have been necessary had Culosow respected the Federal Constitution. Right on! Warku nuxurkiisu waa kaa. Allah Somalidu ayaan daranaa

The idea of investing is good and necessary. But the trouble is the environment is not ready for investment.

xiinfaniin;956003 wrote: Baashow, The father of Somali poetry once said : Baaluqe ismood wiil hadduu, buuryo-goys yahaye Bisqinbaa nin weyn kugu dirtoon, biidna kuu tarine Shansho iyo baruuriyo hadduu, badhi wan weyn yeesho Baraar habartii loog kama baxshoo, gowrac kama baajo Awoowe Dhaqane waambo iyo moxog buu daacayaa oo ma garan karo suugaanta sare ee bal u yara jilci fadlan Geesigii tilmaanaan jidhay, mar baa fulay u tookhaaye Niman kugu toosin baa kuu takhaashumiye, ... Inna Abdulle Hassan halkaas ayuu la maray. Ninkan Dhaqane ah oo haatan farabaxsiga oo waliba Gobaad oo aan curan leh "car" hadaad kabato oo issaga iyo ragga la mid ka ah ay u yihiin maqaawiir wax baratay hadde maxaad ka filan kolkay irmaanaato oo la labo liso .

Bingo on 39 lion dens and 821 folgers keen in getting their share of the caracass. I am sure you will tell us about how dimwits who don't have the capacity to read complicated contracts sold their childrens future in pennies

^ Awoowe waxba gacanta uguma jiraan e hawshu Benaadir guduheeda ha ka socoto. I wish him the best of luck. Taariikh baa qori far waa-weyn awoowe .

Daqane awoowe you are in Hassan's campaign office payroll I will tolerate your partisan support for the man lest you got an uplift for the work you are doing. Barvo Awoowe ii cun

Dabrow;955950 wrote: Kenya wants to put Somalia on a strangle. Abtiigis I think President Hassan should show them that the transitional period is over: in words.and deeds. And pressure them to abide by the mandate or leave Somalia. And he could count me in his camp if he could show us the methodology he uses to decide what renders IGAD members and their AMISOM soldiers an enemy of the state Is it a nilly willy khilaawo or there is metheod to the madness

Brilliant play. I am gonna get my popcorn and watch this high poker game as it unfolds. No guns please

NGONGE;955966 wrote: How could he mediate when he already showed his hand? Agreed That I agree. However, the need to preempt Hassan's moves against Federalism is more important than Faroole positioning himself in a rolling out dirrin for SFG and JL.