Fair enough. I take it you are counting on secession proponents inside the tent If I were you I would rather have plan B ready for execution -- if you get my drift. This is make or break moment. You know it and I know it. In Garowe I guess they are resigned to the inevitable. That's political maturity if you ask me. But hey in your world, duriyadu are the Goliath. They kick *** right? Careful there. Invoking "majority" talk is double edged knive for secessionists

Oodweyne, Recite the following stanza with me. Take off the blowhard hat and come out the closet. I am gonna go out on a limb yet again and assert that you know deep down that if Taleex gathering adopts a pro unity stand then that will put the last nail in the coffin. I can understand if you say secessionist have reasonable assurances from their allies in that dusty town and Taleex gathering will end in failure as far as conclusive and an unambigous outcome is concerned. That's kalamu rujal. And I would've said let's wait and see. Come on bud and read it out loud Dadka geeskan yaal baan lahaa nabad u doon doon e Walaalaha is dooxaan lahaa ha is daweeyeen e Dabka cadawgu keenaan lahaa daadiyoo quba e, Dilaalkiyo milaalkaa lahaa duubta gogolaha e, Daaraha Shawal iyo Xamar kolkan deer isugu keeno, Qaar kalan ku soo dari lahaa oo dirkooda ah, Dowlad weyn ha noqotan lahaa waayo dabadoode*, Damaashaadka faraxaan lahaa daawasho u jooge Arrin kaa dahsoon baa jirtee taa ma dayi weyday. Yes it will take time but you gotta elevate this fight to where it belongs. Awoowe qadiyadaadu duriyada ha ka sareyso. Xataa hadad intaa garanweydo war bal rer abti iyo xididnimo xeeri dee

Success yes. Agreed. Hold your horses Carafaat. It ain't over till the fat lady sings:) She has not sung yet. Gol Khatumo maqawiir are in session. We are waiting the outcome. However I for one will not support if the leadership council adopt the article of secession:). Just saying The odds are extremely low. Still I am for Somaliweyn through and through. Withdrawing from PL partnership and go it alone and SSC recovery zone. Fine. Partnering with Northwest, Togdheer,and Awdal in forming a political block within unity government in one of the arrangement formats floating around. Yes. But secession never

Political blunder and tactless remark. Conduct unbecoming a regional president. He could (and should) make a compelling case for aid on IDP’s behalf. On security front, the measure he’s proposing here is impractical if not absurd. Big gaffe.

^Wow. High technical skill is manifest. An excellent poem -- language is so lyrical and the poem exceptionally crafted in a technical sense. Tone is measured and message in particular is noble. A Khadar poets name please. 35. Tayasiirta Eebbiyo tiraab laygu taawilay dheh 36. Tu’ kaloon ka daba geynayana waan u taagnahaye 37. Afxumada Togdheer iyo ka timi tookha laga keenay 38. Tunka qabad Hargeysi u tallami tuurinbaan sudhida 39. Tamar yaraha talax tegey balaan tuduc yar gaadhsiiyo 40. Takartii Maroodiga cuntee dhiigga kaga tiiftay 41. Waxa ay tanaawalu arbaha turuqdo dheeggiisa 42. Maruunbay tifilig ugu dhacdaa tiigta jeeniga dheh 43. Tagtada iyo tawaawicii horaan tahan xasuustaa dheh 44. Taag darane goortaad ahayd weer haddaad tolatay 45. Toddob yarahu goortuu ku helay teer ma dhigan weydey 46. Kolkii lagu tahluukaynayoo talada aad seegto 47. Gardarraad u tamar yeelataa taransi mooddaaye 48. Goortii taarku kula ciirayana talala’ay weeyee 49. Taleex baan ku soo duulaynaa waydinkeer tebine dheh 50. Tawtawda hanjabaaddiyo afkaa belada soo tuuri 51. La arkee inaad toosisaan aar tabaadiya dheh 52. Afartaa tallowshaye digniin ha ugu toosnaato Beware a la Libaax seexday bau niman salaaxdeene fable.

Gents we are on the same page on this one. Time will tell how this saga is going to end. Post any relevant document. This year appears to be a consequential year for Somalia. P.S.: Ace I am all for rolling the dirrin inside Somalia. That's a wonderful. No argument there. However there are important stakeholders that were left out. Not only they were left out in the cold but they will not be able to pick their representative. This is important in the sense that the six stakeholders will nominate all the key active players especially the members of Constitutional Assembly. I for one would hoped to see a just, all inclusive, and negotiated settlement. Anything short of that will have a potential of necessitating another "correction".

As to be expected Xaglo-Tosiye is making the case for going-it-alone route. He made the point by pulling the classic nomad negotiation style...acknowledge my sacrifice, give me my dues, and by the way even if you diss me I will turn the other cheek for the sake of the tolka. Not bad for tanaan degay chess. It comes with the territory. Expect more verbal gymnastics. Stakeholders will show passion in articulating their position. Some will be diplomatic and pull Socratic discussion in order to persuade their opponents. Eloquent ones will use Somali language more efficiently by employing Aesop type of fables as Xaglo-Tosiye has done with ratiga in order to make the point that SSC needs G6 as much G6 needs SSC if the gathering is to be fruitful. Shir aguugmay, waayeel abyamay, talo ashaatowday; Irdo jiqa, albaabo xiran, eed la bixin waayey; Xaajadaa afraha duubatee, loo olmami waayey, Ayaan iyo ayaan haddii lagu aloolnaado; ... By Inna Abdulle Hassan Although this is gar sokeeye it's gar nevertheless and as such if one to have talo loo guuxo one has to convince opponents and fence-sitters alike. It will be tough. Tolka is having make or break moment. Wishing them all the luck. Keep on updating us.

AFRICAN UNION UNION AFRICAINE UNIÃO AFRICANA P.O. Box: 3243, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, Tel. (251‐11) 551 38 22 Fax: (251‐11) 551 93 21 Email: situationroom@africa‐union.org PEACE AND SECURITY COUNCIL 306TH MEETING
ADDIS ABABA, ETHIOPIA
5 JANUARY 2012 PSC/PR/COMM.(CCCVI) COMMUNIQUÉ The Peace and Security Council of the African Union (AU), at its 306th meeting held on 5 January 2012, adopted the following decision on the situation in Somalia: Council: 1. Notes the recommendations made by the meeting of the Ministers of Defence of the Troop Contributing Countries (TCCs) to the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) and other interested countries, held in Addis Ababa on 4 January 2012, regarding the Strategic Concept for future AMISOM operations [CDS‐Min Def/TCCs/AMISOM.REC(I)], as well as the statements made by the AU Commissioner for Peace and Security, representatives of the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) of Somalia, Uganda, as AMISOM TCC, the Special Representative of the United Nations Secretary‐General for Somalia, Denmark, as co‐Chair of the AU Partner Group, Italy, as co‐Chair of the IGAD Partner Forum, and the European Union (EU); 2. Recalls its earlier communiqués on the situation in Somalia, in particular communiqué PSC/PR/COMM.3(CCLVIII), adopted at its 258th meeting held on 20 January 2011, in which it decided to renew the mandate of AMISOM for an additional period of 12 months. Council also recalls its communiqué PSC/PR/COMM(CCCII) and press statement PSC/PR/BR.(CCCV) issued at its 302nd and 305th meetings held on 2 and 22 December 2011, respectively, on the draft Strategic Concept for future operations; 3. Endorses the Strategic Concept for future AMISOM operations as a planning tool for enhancing the strength of AMISOM and furthering the gains made on the ground, as reviewed and recommended by the Ministers of Defence of the TCCs to AMISOM and other interested countries, including: . (i) the increase of the level of UN‐supported AMISOM uniformed personnel from 12,000 to 17,731, including 5,700 from the Djiboutian contingent and the re‐ hatted Kenyan troops, as well as AMISOM police component, . (ii) the deployment by Burundi and Uganda of additional troops to reach the currently UN‐authorized strength of 12,000, with the understanding that the utilization of these additional troops will be determined on the basis of the needs in the main liberated areas, . (iii) the insertion of AMISOM troops in areas liberated with the support of Ethiopia, in view of the urgency of the stated intent of Ethiopia to withdraw from those areas, . (iv) the extension of AMISOM’s area of responsibility by fast tracking the insertion of AMISOM troops in all the liberated areas, . (v) the provision of the required force enablers and multipliers, as well as logistical support to other components of AMISOM, and . (vi) the enhancement of the TFG security and allied forces, to enable and empower them to play an increased role in the implementation of the Strategic Concept; 4. Urges the UN Security Council to expeditiously consider and authorize the support required for the immediate implementation of the Strategic Concept, in order to take advantage of the unique opportunity created by the operations being conducted against Al Shabaab in different parts of Somalia, thereby consolidating the security gains and moving the peace process forward; 5. Requests the Commission to accelerate the preparation and consultations on the follow‐on planning requirements, including the elaboration and early finalization of a new AMISOM Concept of Operations (CONOPS) to adequately address all relevant issues, such as command and control, liaison and coordination and troops‐to‐task per sector; 6. Appreciates the continuing support of the European Union (EU) in the implementation of the mandate of AMISOM and requests the EU to make available, through the Africa Peace Facility and any other appropriate instruments, the necessary funds to cater for the payment of allowances for 17,731 troops. Council also appeals to other AU partners to provide the necessary financial support for the implementation of the Strategic Concept; 7. Welcomes the initiative of the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom to convene a special Summit on Somalia in London, on 23 February 2012, and looks forward to its positive impact in terms of the enhancement of the international community’s support to the political, security, humanitarian and developmental effort in Somalia; 8. Welcomes the progress made in the constitution‐making process, in the context of the Garowe Conference in Puntland. At the same time, Council calls on the leadership of the Transitional Federal Institutions (TFIs), as well as all other Somali stakeholders, to demonstrate the required maturity and determination in the implementation of the Kampala Accord of June 2011 and the Political Roadmap of September 2011, to urgently resolve the current crisis within the Transitional Federal Parliament (TFP), with the support of the AU, IGAD and the UN[/b]; 9. Reiterates AU’s determination to take all necessary measures against all spoilers, both internal and external, who are engaged in actions aimed at undermining the peace and reconciliation process in Somalia, as well as the efforts of AMISOM; 10. Requests the Chairperson of the Commission to transmit this communiqué and the Strategic Concept for future AMISOM operations to the Secretary‐General of the United Nations, as well as to the other AU partners, to seek their support and cooperation, and to report to Council on the outcomes of its requests, particularly with regard to the resolution on Somalia to be adopted by the Security Council; 11. Decides to renew the mandate of AMISOM for a further period of 12 months with effect from 16 January 2012; 12. Decides to remain actively seized of the matter. Source: http://au.int/en/dp/ps/content/peace-and-security-council-african-union-au-its-306th-meeting-held-5-january-2012-adopted--0

Hermet, you are one helluva hanfade awoowe. You are stating the obvious. Let me shock you and say I am in agreement with the substance of your post. What's been cooked in Kampala smells like more of a continuation of the transition rather than an end to the transition. The intend might have been to end it but if Garowe Principles is anything to go by the transition has been implicitly extended to another four years. AU has also extended its mandate to another 12 months. Now you would agree with me, I hope, that the stated policy of TCC and their enablers is to contain the "militants" in Somalia and end the piracy. Regional actors' geopolitical goals appears to be inline with West's security needs hence the political cover enjoyed by Kenya and Ethiopia in everything they do. Somaligu maalinka maantaya waa looma ooyaan. Iyagana halkaa is dhigay. As to PL being the driver seat; well would it be better to rephrase it:) and say that PL's man of the hour Farole has accepted Kampala Accord in toto but with caveat -- that in order to sell it to his constituents he "demanded" having PM from his zone to be put in place (instead of Farmajo), having leeway to select the delegates, and reasonable assurance - a guarantee of sort - that his clan construct is recognized as an important stakeholder at par with the TFG. It is not over yet and no telling what David Cameron has in mind for the incoming conference but so far Farole extracted sizable concessions from other players. That said, Farole has not challenged the bigger game played here. In my opinion he merely submitted to the plan being presented to him and basically said what's in it for me. That's my reading of these sad events. The thread is about the "end of" the transition as Kampala Accord envisioned. All IGAD countries are in except Eritrea. All IGAD countries are now Troop Contributing Countries (TCC) except Ethiopia (exclusion of Ethiopia is requested by TFG -- they can help temporarily but they will not and cannot be part of the TCC). US, EU, and China have reached an understanding of how to deal with Somalia's piracy, militancy, etc. With the game being on, there was a tussle for the ball and they all played to win a seat in a Trusteeship-like client government instead of insisting on owning the process and convening genuine, all inclusive and lasting political settlement.

Liban boowe Baashi dadka ma qeybin ee reer kasta oo Somali ah meel ay joogaanba shiddada, fawdada, khillafka iyo fitnadu waa saameysay. Muqaawiirta taleex isugu timidna talada reeraha inay isku duwaan oo mad madowga kala dhex galay xala dhalay ka noqdaan bay gogasha u yimaadeen. Reerka ad ka dhalatay sidaydaan u jeclahay in wax u hagaagaana aad baan ugu jeelanahay. Halkan u waday iyo halka aad kula kuftay aad bay u kala fog yihiin. Ku durduri boowe oo hadba meel kula dhac.

And that's fine. Do you differentiate between the recovery zone of PL and folks who lead them? Can you be against the admin but the support the enterprise?

Qandalawi;770572 wrote: Faroole has not only alienated SSC regions such SOOL and SANAAG but all the regions of Puntland including Bari and Mudug except Garowe. Most the residing communities of Mudug and Bari including their Odayaal and isimo are angry and tired of his rule and lack of respect for these regions. So the anger that's felt by the SSC folks against Faroole and his admin is mutual and shared by all folks. However, Faroole is the President of the state, as such, and until his time expires, must be respected. Patience, patience & patience. The man will leave very soon. Revolting against him and forming rebel movements, seceding regions and creating mini-state admins such as 'Raas Casayr' within what was Puntland is not a good idea. And for what? For a man or an admin that's has a life expectancy of less than a year or so. I welcome this meeting and wish all the best for reer SSC, their isimo and intellectuals. I hope the end result will be a well thought off, wise, workable and sensible outcome. Spot on.

Will do. But please promise you keep on updating -- daily that is. Many thanks. MMA fadlan lock it so it stays up top.

No new tidbit about the Darawiish clan gathering. If any of you have any new inside please share it. I understand Som@li is against the admin. Fair enough. What’s not clear to me is whether he opposes it because the clan construct Maakhiries helped found is grossly mismanaged or because the leadership belong to sub clan other than his. What are we to make of the fact that folks in Mudug and Qardho who populate in the opposition column? Remember Dervishes found themselves divided into three factions. In fact what prompted this gathering is the desire to unite all these factions. We all know that Maakhiries have also displayed a divided loyalties! I know you are just like me -- a Qurbo Joog -- and do not have control over the goings of the clan affairs. However it helps if you call ace an ace. As to Kampala Accord I did not glorify it. Not at all awoowe. It is a tool to outsource UN duties to IGAD. Kampala Accord effectively placed Somalia under UN Trusteeship. A Trusteeship managed -- collectively -- by IGAD. A Trusteeship understood (by the players) but not declared. All IGAD members want to achieve the coveted tittle of “Contributing Troop” countries for a reason. I am telling you my man TFI is completely scrapped. TFP, GP, PCA are the new acronyms in town. I am at work and do not have time to do all these back and forth posts so I am gonna just spew some cantarabaqash for you to sift through. What I intended to do is to link Taleex gathering to the Kampala Accord's fast moving train. May 22nd -- Provincial Constitution. June 22nd -- 225 Parlaimentarians will be selected. Kampala Accord delivered two babies (dhicis) in three months!!! 1. Roadmap 2. Garowe Principles. It gave the “Stakeholders” unprecedented powers to effectively control the sham settlement dubbed Somali grand bargaining. The stakeholders are Farole and Abdiweli (rep’g “D” block, Sakiin rep’g “D&M”, Sharif and Calim rep’g “H” block and rotating placeholder position reserved for Islamist). They got to choose the constitution, parliamentarians, and everything in between. Hell they even got to choose traditional “recognized” isimo or duubab. The remarkable thing is whatever comes out from this process will be blessed by managers of the Trusteeship. Even Farmajo a close buddy of Abdiweli is crying foul. In Benadir the tension is sky high -- fistfight and all of that. But all these noises are to no avail. In this context, the gathering of Taleex is interesting in the sense what the final outcome would be. It is also interesting to know whether they want to have a say in this process or whether they throw their lot with secessionist who expect to have a better deal or allied themselves with Gedo and Ceyr who are furious and adamantly opposed to the way the process is managed.

IGAD in conjunction with western powers are trying to shore up the fledgling TFG. To expand Mogadishu’s reach, IC are trying to bring in other players from the cold. They have an incentive for outliers. Real and meaningful legitimacy, massive international aid, security guarantees, and biting penalty against the spoilers -- incentives of that nature are one on the plate. This year may prove to be the year in which transition to post conflict Somalia materialize. How to deal with showstoppers like AS is tricky and the movements ground game may impede the whole process. Equally concerning is self-declared Somaliland enclave. It has already made the transition to normalcy and appear to be determined to extract real and meaningful political concession from the South. Puntland chose to be on the driving seat and it is actively reviewing the calculus in order to position itself to collect advantageous political windfall. The scramble for getting clans reach the coveted “recovery status” is under way and may explode. Despite all of this powers that matter are giving much needed attention to the grassroots political dynamics of this tragic failed state. SOL politics section will post meaningful commentaries. Comments will come from a distant land and folks who don’t have all the inside stories of the events of the day. Nevertheless will do our best and call the events as we see them. If things go south we will be disappointed but still we keep on pouring sad commentaries. Game on.

There is a growing interest in Somalia. There is new dynamic taking shape in London. I am flying blind here and have no clue what David has in mind. Will Britain sideline IGAD and change the direction of the peace imposition or they will enforce Kampala Accord. No clue. Turkey is said to be active and has a hand in the London initiative. Will see how that pans out.

Carafaat, awoowe Faroole would love to have the entire constituency on his camp. He tried to just do that. It didn't work. Secession proponents and more importantly SSC movement do not want to do anything with Garowe admin. That's the political reality. Whether Farole likes or not, he has to deal with it. As they say political crisis brings opportunities. If the Taleex gathering achieves the minimum which is reconciled and united clan with elected and legitimate leadership then Darawiish will have hal ilin oo laga soo galo iyo cid loogu hagaago. Farole will do business with the leadership that emerges from the choir. Port revenue is one leverage he -- in conjunction with his allies within the clan -- can exercise. Aid money is a different ball game and much will depend on the uncertain outcome of the conference. We’ll see how it pans out. Remember this pseudo analysis is coming from a nomad who admits that he’s going out on a limp. Liban, it is fine to disagree for I do not want to preach to the choir. Wait. Let me don my wannabee pundit suit. *hat on* Now awoowe lets go back and take stock on the political events of the 2011 year. Once upon time there was TFG and its TFI pillar underpinning the whole enterprise. Then came Kampala Accord. It guaranteed immunity for the two Sharifs for a year. The key event being Kampala Accord. Are you with me? Will get back to the Taleex after we set the stage and shed light on the political calendar in a munite. Transitional Federal Parliament (TFP) ratified Kampala Accord which in turn delivered Roadmap process and Garowe Principles -- both are binding resolutions coveted with international legitimacy. Real game has being played here. It is game on like no other. Roadmap and Garowe Principles extended the mandate of the Transitional Federal Institutions (TFI), reduced TFP to mere 225 MPs, and shredded permanently 4.5 proportional allocation. Good or bad, right or wrong Kampala Accord reigns supreme in Somalia. No one can change the players (The two Sharifs are untouchable until August 2012) and the Kampala Accord gives legitimacy to the whole process. Because of that monumental meeting in Kampala, president of Uganda acts as the gate keeper. Before the end of 2012, all IGAD members will be inside Somalia to push this baby through. Moving back to Taleex, Dr. Ali Galeyr knows the implications of Kampala Accord and understands the political calendar. It will be very hard for him to stop the train at this late hour. There are limited options available to the shrewd players at the Taleex conference. We’ll see how this thing pans out.

Awoowe I am sure I made numerous misses but the one you pointed out is not one of them. Ali Khalif is a seasoned politician and he has already weighed his options. He understands he needs a platform to channel aid money to his areas. He also knows that the taxes SSC folks pay at the Bosso port is available to PL vice president. Likewise Silanyo has pledged a lot of dough when he visited LA few months back. Both admin have attached strings to that money. There is a scenerio where SSC can have its cake and eat it too. I mentioned that tidbit in my writeup Faroole is not against Taleex gathering. You are misinformed bud. He insisted on Taleex being the place where the gathering should be held for obvious reasons. In the bigger political calculus, whether Dhulos forms a recovery of its own or not is immaterial. In fact Faroole would welcome anything short of secession. In the clannish intrigue, Faroole pulls a tail every time the coin is flipped for both sides are tail In case you didn’t get the joke, let me dissect it for you. You see the greater debate over Somali politics in the post conflict era is whether Somalia should remain strong republic or whether it will adopt a federal arrangement. I happen to prefer strong central republic. The overwhelming majority of the today's political elites if we can call them that are for the latter. Regional powers aggressively are pushing that line too. If Somalia were to adopt the federal arrangement what's the basis of the arrangement should be. Here is where the rubber meets the road. Puntland doesn’t like the 4.5 proportional allocation on the basis of clans. That would give them 22.2%!!! Since clan names are against the SOL golden rules, I will use personalities and if I say president Sharif I mean his huwan clan, same with the speaker and Faroole. The names reps their huwan clans. Both president and the speaker are dead opposed to the regional representation. Their opposition against the regional allocation as the basis of political representation in two tier federal arrangement is purely logistical. Their clans are not united and certainly they are not organized for the regional route. For Farole, it is a blessing from the sky for his fiefdom is organized and if he succeeds his regionalism push his clan confederacy will control not only the majority of regional governments but the most resourceful areas of the country with the exception of Lower Shebelle. Garowe principles sealed that understanding. President and speaker have said they need 4 years to put their houses in order. It is a game on bud. Back to the Taleex gathering. The outcome of the Taleex if it succeeds will serve as the stop to the secessionist hope to punch above their weight when the time come for them to join negotiated political settlement advocated by both regional and international actors. For Faroole, from that perspective anything short of joining Hargeisa admin is a success.

Great news for SSC constituents. The so called G6 committee have succeeded against substantial odds in bringing all sides to the dirrin or as folks up in Dervish land would like to say gogosha nabada. Gol Khatumo is now in session. What a good way to start 2012! First touchdown in the first quarter of Gol Khaatumo proceeding by G6. Long way to go as this is four quarters play. Who is in: Traditional chieftains, political heavy weights, young ambitious upstarts, committed Puntlanders, secession proponents, SSC fiefdom advocates, Afar Jeeble, AL Shabaab elements, Culimo, Waamo delegates, and Qurbo Joog of this key constituent come near and afar to Taleex in order to participate rand gathering dubbed as Gol Khatumo. Any clan member who is in position of influence has been invited to take part of this important proceeding. Who is out: Active portfolio holders in the existing admins. They are there in spirit. Their presence has been judged as being toxic. They gaze with watchful eye over the proceeding from neighboring admin seats lest new upstart deprive them their position as reps of the clan. What’s on the table: They are not telling. Talking heads have already weighed in however. Issues are public knowledge! They’ve taken into account various public positions that the numerous political factions of the clan have taken and they extrapolated from there that it will be a tall order to reconcile the seemingly contradicting views of the top brass. No worries, say the pundits. The fact that Gol Khatumo is in session and the fact that the delegates are deliberating the future of their constituents with no third party distracting them is in itself a great achievement. Delegates would sift through the choices in front of them, have a heated discussion over alternatives, and settle -- pundits think -- with clannish construct. Best choice: The clannish construct in the spirit of the recovery zone in participation of the building block drive toward two tier government in federal tribal arrangement is something all sides of Dhulos can agree on. The other alternatives are many and each one of these alternative route has its supporters and fierce opponents within the clan. Puntland Choice: No doubt the delegates are aware of the heavyweights within the clan favor to stick with their founding member position and leverage their position and the recovery area in the August 2012 showdown. However this is not the time to push this one through. The Somaliland proponents are present and if and when the motion for preserving Puntland in its current form is tabled they would cry foul. Delegates pledged that they would prefer clan unity over neighboring admin loyalties. Somaliland Choice: Although there are loyal proponents for Hargeisa admin in the ranks of the clan they tend to be political elites who happen to belong to specific sub clans. The rational for taking that political position has its roots in political and clan grievances against their cousins who run the Puntland enterprise. Pundits expect smooth sailing for the Taleex gathering if the Buuhoodle and Taleex folks refrain show of force and loyalty to their comrades in Puntland. TFG alternative: Here is where Galeyr -- the well known politician of the clan -- flexes his muscles. He has weighed in and calculated that TFG alternative is appealing but hard to sell without having control over a recovery zone of his own. To the surprise of the talking heads, he uncharacteristically shown his hand before the proceeding has started. The phrases such as Cidna marti uguma nihin arrimahayaga....cid kale u daba fariisanmayno...ninkii talo Somali hayoow la kaalay...yeynaan is haaramiin...haatuu burhaanukum...innagaa is dhignay halkaa...waxaan ka soo wareegay meel ku dhow Sudan etc are indicative of his disdain of the two groups loyal to the neighboring admins. Immovable constraints: Active and vocal folks from that neck of the wood appear to be advocating a recovery zone of their own in par with the neighboring admins. That they can have it. What they would realize is that it will not go anywhere as long as Kambala Accord, TFI, and Garowe Principles are in force. All these stipulate (enforce each other) that 4.5 is out, two tier government is in, and any constituent who want to become an autonomies provincial government and member of the federal arrangement must fulfill several prerequisites chief among them being provincial government aspiring entry into federal arrangement must have two or more provinces out of the eighteen provinces of the Somalia that once existed. The SSC do not have this as this pundit sees it. They certainly do have Sool fair and square. They also have parts of Togdheer and Sanaag. If they overlook this crucial clause they will end up where GalMudug ended up. We know where that recovery area got stuck. As long as that clause is in force they have no choice but make use of their TFG representation (4.5 formula -- next four years) to have a say of the affairs of the state. Likewise they will be hard pressed to let go their share of the tax revenue collected by PL admin and foreign aid collected by PL, SL, and TFG on SSC constituents behalf. Expectations: Too early to say. They are sky high though for that particular constituent. That being so, this talking head and wannabee pundit will go out on a limb and say that when all is said and done the best probable scenario is where all participants agree on five overarching principles. That they 1. have resolved all their internal issues peacefully. 2. committed to coexist peacefully with their brethren in the neighboring administrations and K5 of federal Ethiopia as equals. 3. have formed executive and implementation committees to lead the clan's effort to establish a recovery zone and provincial government called Dervish Confederacy 4. elected traditional chieftains of the clan to be the supreme mediator for any social or political disputes until effective provincial government is formed. 5. provincial representative alone will determine their clans future. Al Kahlif and et al -- Politicians. This wannabee pundit thinks that prominent politicians in that gathering feel a sense of urgency as the transitional period is due to end in August 2012. If elected by the Gol Khatumo participants, that trust will certainly give them legitimacy, control of delegates in the parliament (within 4.5 allocation) and political boost. Likewise if the gathering produces results before next phase of Garow conference (January 21) that will be another boost and will allow Mr. Ali et al to have a say over proportional allocation of the reduced parliament members. SOL kor joogto weighing in from a distance.

Right on Duke. Anything short of secession will be welcomed. The fact that Gol Khatumo gathering is underway is a humongous feat. Awoowe the gathering in itself speaks volumes of the deeply ingrained traditional values of nomads. When things go south, Garaads take charge and settle issues. This time way yara gaabiyeen but Qurbo Joog come to the rescue and get them back on the saddle. Great Dhulos are once again charging toward the finish line a la Daraawiish style. Good going bud. Great stuff. I nominated the good folks of nabadoono who made this happen for the Inna Abdulle Hassan price One thing is for sure. The outcome of this gathering will be a game changer. Gotta put my pundit hat on and spill some beans.

Go Somalis go! Awoowe gogol uun bay aakhirka tagaysaa. Somali halkeebay ku kala tagtaa. Dadku waa xidid iyo xigaalo -- wax sadexeeya bal addigu garo. Sidaad doonti u sarif. Aakhirka halkaa uun bay ku biyo shubanaysaa.. Hambalyo. It appears as if the process is owned by Somalis. That's not the case. Who wrote this constitution? Do you know or can you name one Somali member of the technical committee not employed by outside interest groups (loyalty to country is paramount in this case? Bear with me I am going out on a limb and question the substance of the gathering. Is this document up for a debate by the so-called parliamentarians? Are they going to put it for a 2/3rd majority ratification vote by the public (when the country is pacified)? Do the Islamist have a role in this? How on blue earth can a society wanting to end a civil strife and to bring the conflict to a close ignore a major stake holder in the very conflict it strives to end? I am assuming some of you can differentiate between AS-like fringe groups and silent majority who want to ensure Islam has a major role in post conflict Somalia. Where are the active nomads who used to dig stuff for the forummers? Please post the draft constitution! By now I thought the active nomads have had a go at this and have already put on their magnifying glasses and examined this document. That said, this is a good development. All the money spent on foreign hotels by aid money will now be spent on local business. P.S.: Kambala Accord is killing me folks.

Ngonge is rageedii. He forms allies;) Xiin I am disappointed in you awoowe. How on blue earth have you lost Abtigiis to Ngonge. You gotta get Abtigiis back and aim that big gun of a son at somewhere else. War ninyahow jambal u tuur Abtigiis. Shower him PMs, sing him dhaanto, anything that gets him of your back Gabal, is alright. He's got the passion and in time it will wear of, I am sure. Dhowr bilood sii, issagaa saaxiga keeni doona Maanta laga bilaabo yaan Gabal lagu qabsan Kismaayo iyo giddi Jubooyinka. Kolay annigu raaciyaan u ahay libaaxyada Gedo. Hadaan intii ogolaado sow anniga iyo reer abtigay heshiis noqonmayno.

That's more like it my man. Tell ya what Mahiga is just a UN officer. He may seem that he has great deal of influence to many commentators. That is not the case though. Aim high and attack secessionism and its false prophets. The secession, the secessionist, their agenda, their tactics -- all are fair game. Exposed its holes and challenge hardcore believers.

Well Valenteenah and LSK I stand corrected. Go Juliette go!

Northerner, I know you mean good but here is something you need to consider. I got a call from Minneapolis about three months ago or so by a friend to inform me hebel (a relative) has been detained in Amarillo, Texas and charged with using and transporting narcotic (dried, crushed leaves of qat called garaabo by nomads in the states) weighing 4.5 grams -- a felony in Texas. He drives eight wheel truck for a living and makes a descent money. They put him in a county jail. His bail was set to 10 grand. He was facing 22 years of prison -- still is. His bio looks like this -- divorced with two boys, about 31 years old, working and trying to make the ends meet. Multiply hebel by factor of thousand Somali! Any Somali who gets caught consuming qat in Texas faces similar charges. How many of the new arrivals from Kenya and Ethiopia are aware of this hefty punishment? Once you criminalize you give prosecutors a tool to round up the offenders. In a perfect and just world punishment ought to commensurate with the offence. The thing is folks like you and me do not have the influence or clout to determine what degree of punishment our folks should receive for eating banned qat. Awoowe careful what you wish for. I have hunch that you don’t want to condemn a productive man with no prior history of criminal misconduct behind bars for that long because he consumed narcotic called qat. I am interested in stopping the flow of money from Somalia to Kenya and Ethiopia. They’re draining us economically.