Mintid & Oodweyne Awoowe in few months we will know if Silanyo has what it takes to be a leader. The goings is getting tough and tough will only get going Somalia’s territorial integrity is untouchable. There is no chance to alter that reality. Silanyo gets it. Hargeisa predicament is unique and Silanyo needs a leeway to steer SL ship to a safe landing. Hassan, Farole and IC get it and they are more willing to accommodate him up to a point. The biggest problem is within Habraha. Here is where the rubber meets the road as they here in the states. Remember ’93-94 civil wars in SL? What was it about again!!! Tuur, Qeybe, Kalluun and et al argued all along that durriyada should cut a favorable deal with Mogadishu. We all know what happen to them!!! Today we have HJ man on the helm who adopted previous admins policy of prosecuting anyone who veered from the secession line. The kin of the persecuted big shots tolerated the humiliation because they bought the secession idea in its totality. Idinku lama xaali kadhaan kiina isku dayana dee xabsigaa yaqaan bey shalay joogtay. Maantana waxa weeye ilma adeerayaaloow inna keena aan wallaalahayo wax la qaybsanee oo waliba ninka aan la kalaamayo ma aha nimankii aan is haynay.. Silanyo gets the task to report to Mogadishu or risk absolute and irreversible isolation coupled with loss of clout. Knowing the political trajectory of the world Habraha inhabit, I feel nothing but sympathy for Silanyo. This is not something he chose to do or wanted to do. Events of the region, the presence of AS in his fiefdom, positive changes in Mogadishu and Obama admin’s clear and unequivocal support of Somalia’s territorial integrity and sovereignty leaves Silanyo no choice but to play qallanjada iyo wiilka in his hand in this every changing dabakaerri turub As to folks who are still dreaming for dismembering Somalia into what region has been subjugated by what European colonial power in the heydays of scramble for Africa smell the coffee and open your eyes Mintid and Oodweyne please don’t point finger at Silanyo. He didn’t make Obama and Cameron abandon SL project. He didn’t make Turkey spend its political capital on Somalia and campaign for its comeback. It just so happened that events beyond his meager influence and clout overtook his plans for Durriyada Wax la waayey geeloow ninkii waalan baw dudda,! PS. Tell Silanyo I defended him against extremists flexing their muscles in internet xaafado who believed in Ngonge’s make belief world of wey duushay.

Adduun Inna Samatar campaigned for the PM position but was unsuccessful. Warku waa intaa awoowe He must have thought there was a chance to win the golden cup otherwise he wouldn't have tried in the first place He offered his “on paper” political party to Hassan and proposed a merger but the other side didn’t see the need to merge with a “party” with no grassroots support. He campaigned for a cabinet portfolio. Again he didn’t bring anything to the table. He had neither G clan loyalty nor Awdal constituents. He forgot the fact that the northern *** clan’s inclusion in the South political process was to fulfill “the place holder” feature of the roadmap until the real players in that corner (SL admin) show up. All politics are local and the game in M town was no different. Galeyr and Inna Samatar tried to sell their “Somaliweyn” credentials to another Somaliweyn supporter and that’s not how politics work. You keep what you have and seek what you don’t have. Granted they make natural ally to southern pro-union loyalists but at the end of the day they do not have what it takes to deliver SL or PL. I am very disappointed in him with his habit of going around and telling tall tales that’s neither here nor there. Awoowe the man should have known better. Politics is a dirty and ruthless business for shrewd, conniving and calculating people. Politicians have to put everything on the line. The wannabees gotta do what is required in order to gain the support necessary to win. They have to build coalitions, gain allies, make promises and sell their vision. What did he do other than go there and expect his tenure in the College is enough draw to win votes? Presidency was up for grabs. Every MP had a vote that counts and every one of them was free to cast however he or she pleases. There were numerous candidates running and the winner was underdog that came out of nowhere. That’s very telling. The president-elect weighed his options and chooses his MP. Of all the folks, Inna Samatar could not make the cut politically speaking. Silanyo has a shot as he can deliver the goods. If only Hassan has the wisdom and courage to appoint Silanyo as the PM and concede Federalism (cease and desist challenging this provision of the constitution by pushing a watered down version through the parliament) to appease D-block as that is what matters to them at this juncture of Somali politicking.

xiinfaniin;928455 wrote: If I had the time, I would have translated the story of Habsane ...it has a valuable application to particular goings in Somaliland Go on Secessionist have been in a collision course with reality for sometime now. I said so myself numerous times on this very board. The moment of truth has arrived. No need for polemics, pundits, spin-doctors, talking heads, guulwadeyn, windbags and everything in between. Somalia sovereignty has been reaffirmed by US and all its western allies. AU, Arab League, Turkey, Russia and China have consistently said that Somalia's territorial integrity is sacrosanct. Looks like that news has yet to sink in. As always the extremists absolutists of Oodweyne's mold know something the rest have overlooked in their analysis on this issue. There was an article on Salon titled political power of being naive or something along those lines. The author a frustrated tree hugger wrote his giving up his high mannered methodical activities to push his interest through congress and white house. Instead he proposed adopting simple and make-belief campaign. War jiraaba Cakaaro iman

^ Awoowe khayr baa ka soo bixi doona dadaalka Kismayo.

I would not use hate but yes I disdain that word. If you see that word used in major anglophone media portals write to the editor and politely tell them the word is anomaly. Give them references to help them validate your correction.

Absolutely amazing. Sanaag is unique place. Unique if you want to get away from South Somalia during the heat season. It's my intention to have a cottage somewhere in Sanaag highlands when I retire. That's what I wrote when I joined SOL back in 2002 That dream (and hope) is still alive I'm saving to buy a real estate for beach front Villa in Kudhaa, Kismayo and Jamaame, ranch in Goobweyne, and cottage in Sanaag highlands. Ducada amin dhaha in dhulkaa Allah ka dhigo meel nabad ah oo nidaam ka jidho oo naftu lagu aamino karol.

N.O.R.F;928424 wrote: Agreed yaa Baash. Nothing wrong with the aim of the meeting. But what are the issues? Is it only a question of the government dragging it's heels or are there also concerns from the Gedo folks (troops moving to near Kismaayo)? Are these concerns legitimate? Can this set things back? ^ At issue is pure politics. Locals -- the main branch of D-block who happen to be the architects of the Federalism -- want to use their constitutional right to peacefully organize and assemble political gathering in order to weigh and ultimately determine whether it is their interest to form a federal state of their own making or have central government dictate how they run their local affairs. The government is young and weak. It's now or never. Gobteydu waa jidhaa goonyohoo idile, Annigu waxaan goosan kadho waa gurubsanayaa e Pretty much that's the gist of the drama over Kismayo gathering. Government is not merely dragging its feet but it's actively playing hardball and pretty much sabotaging the whole effort. The prime minister is from Galgaduud and as the highest official of the federal government there was political calculus that he could be employed in stopping the D-block's determination in fully implementing the brilliant (from clannish sense) formulated political game Garowe Principles succeeded to advance in the wee days of the roadmap as part of the Kampala Accord. There are concerns from Gedo folks. Yes. The concern stems from the confusion and lack of solid leadership that speaks for and on M clan's behalf. Majority of the Gedo as well as Cabudwaq wings are on board. The business class and known personalities are also on board. Majority if not all MPs of Gedo block are also on board. There are no disagreements on delegate allocation or power-sharing scheme as far as I know. At this point you might be scratching your scalp and saying gee what is this drama all about then!! Good question. I would have reached the same conclusion too. Well the problem lies with the PM Saacid. He contradicted himself three times on the question of Kismayo. First he welcomed the gathering and pretty much endorsed the state-building effort. He then sat on the invitation from the Jubba leadership council for eight days. He then offered counter invitation and as if he is a dictator "summoned" the council to Mogadishu. His ministers endorsed a fake gathering held in Mogadishu and pushed a different narrative. His office finally and quietly released a press release pretty much dismissing local and peaceful gathering in Kismayo that hasn't produced anything (has not even formally started) as unconstitutional. In other words he condemned a peaceful gathering by free citizens "intending" to form a federal state. This line of thinking center-periphery power dynamics where center dictates how periphery should run their local affairs should bother every Somali. This is one of the most important item of the "lesson's learned" list. Awoowe caqligu waa inuu talliyaa. As to the troops moving to Kismayo, that was a blessing in disguise for the state-building effort. These were 132 soldiers and most of them belonged to non D-block clans. These were soldiers trained, equipped and supplied by Kenya. They were supposed to fight alongside Kenyan soldiers when the latter attacks AS strongholds in the area. They vacated their positions in the middle of the night, somehow managed to bypass the very opponents they supposed to help defeat and made to Kismayo's gates without notice. All of this coincided with the Kenyan elections when high command orders their flock to stand down. To complicate the matter, the clueless officer leading the platoons told AMISOM that he's been ordered to report to Kismayo by the top brass of SFG military high command. I guess you can see the ramification of the whole episode. Questions have been asked who ordered whom and why! Is Mogadishu admin committed to take the fight to AS or the admin wants to give AS a chance and let them fight another day. Needless to say, changes were made at the top brass. Could this “thing” set back the clock? Depends. By “this” if you mean the platoon incident, absolutely not. But Gedo folks and the prime minister have the capacity and wherewithal to complicate things for the emerging state. As all things Somali, new unforeseen conflict could pop up anytime.

d/p

Xiin, Looking good. Do you have the list of the delegates? Please post it if you do. Could it be Faroole and Saacid and the arm-twisting that transpired in Nairobi did the trick! Who knows that might be it. Wacade wiilka Faroole la yiraahdo waa wiil hoog Saacid gets it but we'll see how well he succeeds in making the u-turn without making it appear government is flip-flopping on federalism. War jiraaba Cakaaro iman! At any rate, state-building effort will go on. Folks waht is happening in Kismayo is a legitimate gathering of local residents in the region. It is a peaceful gathering aimed at building federal member state and insha'Allah the locals' effort will succeed.

Looking good. Good and balanced report, by the way. If Heritage Foundation (HF) keeps its watchdog hat on, it will go places and win sizable and cross-section of Somali community readership. I hope HF staff do not resort to guulwadeyn and mashxarad kind of cheerleading activities that tainted the credibility of numerous aspiring think tanks before them. Questioning Attitude, no matter how well the government seems to be doing, is what watchdog role make stick. As to the report itself, I guess this admin is doing, for the most part, a fine job considering huge challenges they have to face and overcome. The president’s six point policy platform is good and commendable. Absent from the government priorities, as shown by its guiding policy objectives, is RECONCILLIATION. This will prove to be a major shortcoming on their part and will give them grieve. Admin made political plunder in refusing to participate institution-building effort in Kismayo and at times government appeared to be sabotaging the peaceful gathering by making irresponsible statements about constitutionality of local people trying to determine what form of local government suits their region! I hope the next 100 days the admin will make a mid-course correction on both reconciliation and federalism tracks.

Not at all. It's actually the other way around. Per rule of precedence, Article 48 takes precedence (in the unlikely event of contradiction). That's 48 has priority of importance over all other. I didn't read the Law but waan xoogsanayaa as a lay person. And no it is not a case of putting the cart before the horse. Not at all. It simply says the state has adopted federalism as the political system. Another way of saying clan federation. With this document, folks embraced the dual system of governance. This document only recognizes eighteen administrative regions of pre-1991 Somalia. If two or more administrative region of the existing eighteen regions wish to merge and form a federal member state they may do so NOW. The regions that opt out of this available option will come under the control of Federal Government for first two years of post transitional period Then it goes into detail the ways and means to get to the promise land of mature and solid federal system. The document also anticipates whole range of issues and puts mechanism to deal with these issues. What to do with shared localities that belong to two adjacent federal member state -- e.g Galkacyo, Ceerigaabo (ignore feasibility of SL agreeing to form unity government with Mogadishu for a second). You seem to get caught up with the mechanics of facilitating the full implementation of the system. Yes, you are absolutely right there are many loopholes rip for explotation. But that's beside the point. The main point of your question was about whether more or two administrative regions could proceed the formation of the federal member state. The answer is ephatic YES. The obly real issue that will need a commission is Gedo vs. Bakool & Bay dispute over the clan ownership of Baardheere and Luuq. Here is where the commission comes in and forward recommendation of its findings to the Aqalka Ummada. The other issue is since no single administrative region cannot stand by itself, how does the question of Galmudug going to be dealt! We're opening a can of worms and the implementation of the clan federation is going to be cumbersome and difficult. But of all of candidates for federal state member, Jubba is a clear cut given the clan compossition of its residents. Again I'm not an attorney and my take is only my reading of the document. If your reading of it makes sense to me I will stand corrected.

Many thanks Zack. There you have it. Answers to your questions can be found in Article 48, Clause 2 and Article 49, Clause 6. Remember also part of legislative body (Upper House of the Parliament) and third branch of the state (Constitutional Court) are not established yet. On top of that this constitution is the law of the land in the next four years.

Xiin or someone fadlan post chapter 5 and provisions to change change constitution after four years. They are enumarated at the end.

Let's focus on the substance of your question. It's a good question awoowe. Norf, I am not an expert on constitution and just like you I'm a lay person interested in the issue. If you are asking me about the constitutionality of local folks quest for federal member state the answer is YES. I am at work and don't want to download the pdf file. What part of what Zak posted you have issue with? If you are at home please post Chabter 5 in its entirety.

Are professors in your neck of the wood in Mogadishu or are they sipping chai latte in the cozy caffee shops in Minni? This is a watershed moment, a turning, tipping point if you will, and history will be made if Somalis learn how to fight politics in the halls of Aqalka Ummada. I welcome the vitriol of any politician so long they are not mobilizing unemployed 20ish with guns to score points. We're making a progress awoowe.

xiinfaniin;925043 wrote: Baashi, I agree with you that federalism is not an ideal solution (even when it is not based on clans) for Somalia. However, civil war experience will continue to shape the Somali politics for the years to come. Federalism is a compromise solution; it gives the country a time to heal , gives the central government time to rebuild trust between the various stakeholders, and it gives regional states the safeguard it so fiercely fought. Somalia needs time to try what you correctly termed the federal social contract. If it works out, it will be good and dandy. If it proves difficulty to implement let the parliament do its job...the executive needs to get hell out of that way and concentrate the true national priorities i.e. reconciliation, trust building , and security ... The president would have garnered sympathy and support had he not so quickly thrown himself into the Kismayo issue.And for that reason president Hassan seems today to represent a narrow interest of certain communities , unable to see see the big picture. He comes across as sort of an activist president who fails to distinguish political commentary from constitutional principles that are supposed to guide the country in the next four years. Agreed. The ball is in Gollaha Ummada if they can handle it.

N.O.R.F;925130 wrote: Thats the question I am asking. ^ Good question! What's your take on your question Norf? Let's hear it awoowe . If you haven't read the document in its entirety I guess quick scan on your part is in order.

Xiin, Here is the dilemma for the folks who share my view of how Somalia ought to look like say in 20 years from now. The dilemma is, on the one hand, I like to see Somalia that is united, at peace with itself, strong in the region and is in a position to shape the future of Somali inhabitants in neighboring states (or can leverage their presence in these states to its advantage). The clan federation does not advance this grand scheme and may actually serve as obstacle to its realization. On the other hand I can see how impractical such notion is today given the reality on the ground as deeply impeded mistrust between Somalis clouds their judgment in evaluating Somalia’s geopolitical position in a world where resource are scarce and weak states are exploited by and forced to toe the line of big and powerful states hungry for resources. From this first point of view I kind of sympathize with President Hassan’s view in halting the federalism to its tracks now and find another solution that could satisfy all stakeholders. From the second point of view, I kind of see population that are deeply shocked and thrown off base by the brutality of civil war and resolved to never repeat past mistakes again. I understand that Somalia is where it is today thanks to the political settlement they had between themselves. Any attempt in circumventing that ongoing political process has its dangers and one must be very careful in proceeding with policies that’s not in sync with the constitution (the social contract). How can one square this circle?

Daqane;924858 wrote: Mintid here is some insight into the agreement signed by the prime-minister: 1. Dowladda Federaalka ah ee Soomaaliyeed waxay ammaan iyo bogaadin u soo jeedineysaa halgankii dheeraa ee ay soo galeen Ahlus Suna Waljamaaca waxuuna noqon doonaa mid taariikhi ah. 2. In si waafaqsan Dastuurka iyo siyaasadda dowladda Federaalka Soomaaliya ee maamul sameynta iyo federaaleynta dalka laga hirgeliyo maamul goboleed gobolada dhexe, kadib marka ay soo dhameytiranto wixii hindise sharciyadeed ah ee Dastuurku dhigayo. 3. In dhamaan ciidamada Ahlsu Suna, Hubkooda iyo Gaadiidkooda dagaalba lagu wareejiyo dowladda Federaalka Soomaaliya ayagoo ka mind noqonaya ciidamada qalabka si ay u helaan xaquuqdooda ciidan-nimo. 4. In laga bixiyo kharashaadkii iyo deymihii Ahlu suna ku galay la dagaalankii Khawaarijta Al shabaab, kharashkaas oo dhan 5 Million oo dollar, waxaana leysla gartay in jadwal taariikheysan iyo guddi farsamo loo saaro qaabkii deymahaas loo bixin lahaay. 5.Dowladdu waxay la wareegeysaa maamulada degmooyinka gobolada dhexe ee Ahlu suna gacanta ku heyso, kuwaas oo si toos ah u hoos imaanaya Dowladda Federaalka Soomaaliya si ay xaquuqdoodii u helaan. 6. Dowladdu in daryeel u fidiso agoontii iyo naafadii ku wax yeeloobay halgankii dheeraa ee Ahlu sunna uga xoreeysay degaanada gobolada dhexe Khawaarijta Al Shabaab. 7. Dhaqangelinta iyo dabagalka heshiiskaan waxaa loo saarayaa guddi farsamo oo labada dhinac ah mudo labo asbuuc gudahood ah oo ka bilaabaneysa maalinta heshiiskaas la kala saxiixdo. Heshiiskaan waxaa u saxiixay dhinacyada. 1. Cabdikariin Xuseen Guuleed Wasiirka Arrimaha Gudaha iyo Amniga Qaranka 2. Cabdi Cali Fiidow Waxaa kale oo goob joog ka ahaa. Guddoomiyaha golaha Fulinta maamulka Ahlu suna Waljamaaca 3. Sheekh Ibraahim Sheekh Xasan Guureeye Guddoomiyaha saddexda gole ee maamulka Ahlu suna Waljamaaca. 4. Sheekh Cumar Shiikh C/qaadir Guddoomiyaha golaha Talada maamulka Ahlu suna Waljamaaca. 5. H.E. Cabdi Faarax Shirdoon Ra’iisal Wasaaraha Jamhuuriyadda Federaalka Soomaaliya People here as usuall don't understand how important this is... I’m assuming the agreement is not a hoax but real. If that’s the case, this is a huge gain for the administration and folks who populate that region. I don’t know how Galmudug can survive considering it has only 1.5 districts (less than one administrative region)! If this agreement holds, it is a game changer! From purely clan perspective, it appears Abudwaq & Balanbale residents -- a subclan from D block -- have now formalized their solid political alliance with other members of Galgaduud pact. For amateur folks in SOL who are not in the know about how 60s clan alliance dictated the political fortunes of ambitious politicians watch the current political dynamics as the tournament is a replay with different actors. Note how the administration have dish out financial and other incentive without parliament's approval. ASWJ was financed and packed by Ethiopia in order to defeat AS. The same group is claiming that they are in debt. To whom, one may wonder, to their clan members, friends, businessmen? Are other constituents who fought against AS entitled to receive the same largesse? Or only constituents who are in sync (politically) with the administration stand to benefit from the public purse (actually IC handouts)? The message is clear. Folks who implement administration's political objectives stand to benefit from government largesse. Constituents who agree with administration's view in rejecting clan federation political system and are willing to be directly ruled from the center will be rewarded by the federal government. Constituents who opt to have their own federal state will get nothing but strong disapproval and in some cases naked harassment from the federal government. Let's wait and see how the Parliament reacts.

Fair point. But let's not mix up two different issues here. An environmental issue -- and that's what the desertification issue amounts to -- and political issue. The first is what UN resolution is alluding to. The latter is a train that already left the station. The bulk of the charcoal has been sold (to my limited knowledge) and proceeds devvied up between afar jeeblayaal and their backers in Kenya. Awoowe if you haven't figured aout yet the Kismayo issue is a runaway mustang. The only constituent that can slow it down is that of Gedo constituent. if the PM and his cohorts see it politically advantegous they can complicate the issue by sowing discord between brotherly communities in the area.

^ @ Mintid What happen to your noodles boowe. I mean! common man:). Question: can you turn charcoal back into trees? Well, what to do with charcoal (already in sacks) worth of millions sitting at the open fields near the port? This issue has been discussed into death. At issue is not about Kismayo or the formation of federal state in Gannaane valley. At issue is who gets AS's assets. Government in Mogadishu or the so called "liberators" militia commanders. Mogadishu admin says the alone should make the decision of what to do with the $40 million worth loot. IGAD pressured by Kenya says the money should be used funding the on-going fight against AS in Gedo. Madobe et al and his Kenyan's businessmen laugh at the Mogadishu's excursions in the local affairs of their city. For your information awoowe half of the loot has already been shipped to Gulf States and some of the proceeds are used to fund Kismayo gathering What the UN resolution is talking about is desertification issues which is a huge problem in that area.

Raula, Dhuubo, halkee kala qaaday David Brooks Waa ku sidee? Bal hadde mar kale ku laabo As you know an argument made personally against him does not pass as an argument or even comment. That type of muran is mananayko -- iga sax Swahiliga . Ad hominum aside, David's piece is an opinion -- one that resonated with me. Me, To take David's sensible advice and apply it to nomad politicking is a political suicide and unilateral disarmament of worst kind. It jus doesn't work in some polities. The take away from the piece is that moderation in anything, neutrality or objective reasoning is not necessarily a bad thing. He's very frustrated columnist. He was hired by NYT to be GOP's influential voice in the Times. The Times (a liberal but extremely influential newspaper) was hailed in its decision to take in David and give him this platform. But the rise of Radio Talk Show windbags, FOX News Conservatives, Libertarian streak of the GOP and Tea Party nutcases made him irrelevant in his own party as GOP kept shifting to the right.

This is a decisive political win for the administration. There are numerous strings attached to the resolution but still administration in Mogadishu made it clear that their aim is to fend off AS and protect government institutions and ports.

Gaadhi raadkii ninyahaow gees walba u jeeda, Labada ginni ee aan is gelin, ninyahow jeeb isugu geeyey, Walle laba garaadloow kaam gudho sheeko! This poem pretty much sums up what Khatumo is! Meel kale ha ka eegin. Waa siduu Taleex u gartay, shiddo aan dhexdooda ahayn reerka Hawd iyo Nugaal yaala uma iman. That said, don't worry about the discussion between FG and SL. Waa laba dhinac in lagu amaano bey mudan yihiin. especially Silanyo who took a calculated risk to go down this road. Mogadishu administration needs to give the man a room to manuever. It's a reconcilliation of sort. The constitution has already been written. All Somalis of every stripe and region agreed to that document which calls territorial integrity of Somalia sacrosanct. Irrespective what the two leaders agree on, the mechanics of changing the constitution is extremely difficult as delineated in the document. The challenge for the federal government is how to demarcate the border between the two recovering areas. That's why there is provision slipped in the constitution that calls for appointing a commission for that task. I think you understand the eighteen administrative regions of pre-1991 Somalia is crystal clear. Guess what? It's not the president or the cabinet branch of the government that have the responsibility to appoint the commision. Awoowe this scenerio has already been simulated and thought about. Garowe has put in place two layers of independent protection and if both fail then there is another layer of mitigation. If all fail you won't have Somalia! The whole thing will explode and things will go back to square one. That's the nuclear option and no one dares to go down that road.

“The ethnic vote is often the one based on fear,” Mr. Kiai said. Kenya’s ethnic arithmetic favors Mr. Kenyatta , who has been charged with crimes against humanity by the International Criminal Court. His ethnic group, the Kikuyu, is the country’s largest, and along with the Meru and Embu, which often vote with it, they represent 22 percent of the population. He then chose William Ruto, a Kalenjin, to be his running mate, and the Kalenjin are the third-largest group in the country. Mr. Odinga, a Luo, chose a Kamba running mate, Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka, but their combined numbers are far below the Kikuyu-Kalenjin alliance. Mr. Ruto has also been indicted on charges of crimes against humanity in connection with the election violence in 2007 and 2008. Change "ethnic" to "clan" and add the fact that 95% of eligible voters cast their ballots along ethnic line (per this news report) and you would see Kenyans is not that different from Somalis when it comes to identity politics. http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/07/world/africa/kenya-presidential-election.html?hp&_r=0