Nope. Not yet Kismayo is not safe as Hargeisa or Bossaso.

underdog;930921 wrote: The Somali old guys have this fixed. Over 52 and alone? put together a short stack, hop on a flight to Africa and married a young girl. The drama will keep you going another 2 decades. No kidding

Priceless Our beloved Northwest region of Somalia does not need a lending hand from the UN. Balanced budget all of that! The fiefdom could sustain itself economically and in the event it needs some funds it will get from its former colonial power. That's what our secessionist friends are selling us here on SOL boards. You better believe it:) Believe it:)

Oodweyne, I know my feeds are always sketchy and incomplete but from what I understand Gedo is fully onboard. I am disappointed in him the PM but I also understand he is man who owes his political fortunes to his friends among them the current president. His tol supported him by default but Farmajo had the loyalty of M clan. Another words he does not have a base. His folks embraced him after the fact so I heard. The problem is not Gedo, The PM is the problem. Just so you know Jubba delegate fielded a united front. Their position was firm and unshaken by all the PM appeals. That's very telling.

Great move. Absolutely brilliant move. Please post the link so we SOL members take the first stab at this code. SFG should adopt this code as a template and finalize it as it deems fit.

Oodweyne awoowe anniga iyo Xiin are on the same page on the issue of Kismayo. Remember how AMISOM works and understand their mandate. Eventually they have to obey the SFG but as they say all politics are local and by this I mean Kenyans are not putting their soldiers on harms way just because they care about Somalia. Awoowe timir laf baa ku jidha. JSF are equipped and well positioned to win the war against AS. On the big picture though we're being played like an instrument. Because we mistrust each other so much and placed so much premium on this curse of negative tribalism we have lost any sense of patriotism.

The path forward should be: Proceed with the deliberation and declare federal state. Support SFG in principle. Become loyal opposition and while affirming its legitimacy vehemently disagree with its policies toward federalism. Invite Parliamentarians who geographically represent the new state and make sure they speak in one voice. Cede local ports to SFG and share revenues as much as possible with SFG. Make the forces stationed in the state central to the fight against AS so JFS becomes an indispensable in this war of attrition. Halkaa ha ka botoriso...

Disappointed Wasiirka hadlay waxa uu ku hadlay hadal qiimo badan oo miisaan iyo miyir loo yirri. Annigu ninkaas waa iga gadan yahay. Xilka uu hayana ninkaasu waa istaahilaa. Maashaa Allah. Well, Xiin awoowe dawlad waa garaneysaa oo hadde waa qarran codkeeduna waxa uu gaadhaa meel shishe. Talo iska hor imaad iyo colaad cusub dhaafsiisan ma la hayaa? Wuxu waa siyaasad waana la furdaamin karaa ee hadda reerku waa inuu sidiisii hoos u falaxashaa oo bal qaab kalena lagu dayaa.

Wax heshiis u eg aan laga didin waa inuu sheegaa Xiinoow if the good PM don't play ball when the night is still young and the moon is at ist zennith, he will regret it big time. Someone needs to remind him that his position is an appointed position that can be taken away anytime Hassan wants or Parliament tables a vote of no confidence. If he is cognizant about that side of the equation I don't see a reason he should insist on Mogadishu being the venue where the fate of Jubba is decided.

Unlike Mind, Ngonge knows how to debate My friend Oodweyne's Habraha loyalty is unquestionable. He's a true clan patriot His ambitions are limited to two provinces and half of Somalia We're calling him to come in from the cold N.O.R.F;931230 wrote: Come on saxib. The discussions are between two equals with a mediator. If they were not seen as equal by the Somali government, if the government in Xamar thought it was bigger than Somaliland, then why agree to a discussion on Somaliland’s wish to breakaway? Good question! The answer is because government in Mogadishu wants to avoid conflict The weak government in Mogadishu is to resolve all outstanding issues with all Somalis including SL, PL and JL. True the government does not control SL, PL, JL and all AS territories TODAY. It does not control means of production, borders and local institutions. All true. It's a young, weak and it counts AMISOM for its security. Somalis understand this. IC understand this and are lending their helping hand to admin in Mogadishu. What it has is international legitimacy and recognition. It has the sympathy of the world for they see the difficult predicament it is in. Its right to its territory is respected by all. SL is one of the bright spots of Somalia. Every reasonable Somali acknowledges SL and strides it made during last two decades. It's desire to secede is no secret. Some of the Somali in the territory government in SL claims do not want to secede from Somalia. PL borders overlap with SL borders. In the eyes of the world, they are State and a region of that state talking about ending hostilities and finding a way out of looming conflict that's about to happen if agreement is not reached soon.

Government wants to appoint a local government from the center. The constitution says otherwise. The locals want to determine their affairs. They want to choose their own government and leaders. AS presence in much of the South didn't prevent Somalis to bring about an end to the transitional government. If AS presence in the region serves as an obstacle to the state formation then one can flip the coin and use the same bogus reasoning to question the legitimacy of the SFG.

Xiinoow, just wanna remind Ngonge the difference between country and government. Dissenting voices in Kismayo (and SOL members) are expressing their disagreement with government policies toward federal state formation. Wheres folks up North are sparing no effort to dismember their own country.

^ Samafal, awoowe secessionists are just giving their two cents on the current events. SOL members should welcome all these diverse views on the latest events wherever they happen. Ngonge, awoowe Somaliland and Jubba issues are apples and oranges. Jubba has not yet acheived the coveted stage of federal member state. Folks gathering in Kismayo wants to get there and they want SFG leadership to own the process. As you have correctly observed SFG has different design for the area. Secessionists, on the other hand, have to contend with their internal deamons first if they want to make a play for unity government of confederacy type. You and I know recognition is not forthcoming and that door has been shot close for good. Jubba folks are not as confused as our brothers are in Northwest. As they say "Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it".

Waryaa Oodweyne, awoowe shiddada inaka daa

^ I got it from the fact that Somalia is an independent state and has the right to control its domain. Granted the SFR is weak and has no capacity to exercise its right today. But make no mistake SFR could demand (in due time) others to respect its territorial integrity and sovereignty. Do you understand what that means to secessionists? I guess not Ngone awoowe I am not saying the two issues are identical or even similar. Not at all. Jubba is a different animal altogether. Jubba folks are challenging the government policy toward federalism. They acknowledge the legitimacy of the state and its leaders but they disagree the politics and the execustion the current adminstration is pursuing. Whereas the SL issue is about selling the social contract folks in the South agreed to the SL administration. Make no mistake federalism gives everything they want short of outright secession. Different animal altogether. What you and I believe do not matter. What matters the most is whether Somalia is a recognized state. The fact is it is a recognized state with huge internal challenges. The Somaliland issue is one of these challenges leadership in Mogadishu have to contend with. If the talks fail (Allah forbid) then it will be a reckoning day for SL. It will be unrecognized fiefdom wanting to secede going rogue. I don't know how things will pan out but all the signs indicate that SL is in a bind. We'll see. Mintod boowe you are talking the victim mentality to a different level. Your analogy is not appropriate to the discussion we're having here The fact that your kin sees a different and better outcome for SL residents if they bargain with Mogadishu is very telling and relevant to this discussion. What that means is there are Duriyada folks who all along wanted a rational and consistent policy toward re-integration with the rest of Somalia. Reasonable folks who knew all along that reality on the ground in the enclave and the status of the state is an obstacle to wey duushay make belief world. Again Wax la waayey geeloow ninkii waalan baw duda!

^ That's the spirit. The linebacker goes for a tackle again Awoowe if you are telling us that there is no clannish partisanship within Habraha we'll give you the benefit of the doubt and verify if that is the case I have friends from that neck of the wood here and they say blessed his heart when they read spirited defense you put up on this board Awoowe folks from that neck of the wood call him Dhiigshiil. It's not a deragatory name and its his real nickname. But I see your gymnastics as a distraction from the issue at hand. As to challenging government on Jubba bordering contradiction oh boy! bless your heart as one of my friend fond of saying War heedhe Jubba supporters are loyal citizens of the SFR. They want to implement a federal provision in the draft constitution for legitimate reasons. You are being disingenuous in equating the two issues. There is no contradiction in supporting the implementation of SFR constitution and opposing dismembering Somalia on now defunct colonial legacy grounds

Mintid Farayar;930501 wrote: Baashi, 1)What are the options for the architects of the Jubba project if the PM opposes(once again) the current 'shir' and state-creation process? 2)What is it that the central gov't fears/sees in this Jubba formation? Is it as simple as clan-based opposition or a devolution of executive power away from the center(Mogadishu)? Well the way I see it -- and this is only my opinion -- is that the Jubba folks will proceed with the project and create realities on the ground and then focus defeating AS by themselves. This is a checkmate play. To counter that scenerio the PM could mobilize his supporters and create political confusion. The answer to the second question is both. Devolution of executive power is the central worry. Principled folks who wants to establish a strong, united and prosperous Somalia see the clan-based fiefdoms as a permanent identity politics that can be used to destablize the state in the future conflict in the region. On the other hand clan politics is a reality in Somalia. Grievances and mistrust between Somalis are based on clan. The reason Somalia had 22 years of civil strife is because of this clan vs. clan dynamics and the fact the former regime milked this anamoly to its last drop. The only formula they could come up to end the civil strife that really worked is federalism which on the one hand devolved power into levels and on the hand assured suspicious clans that they can build their area withouting needing political patrionage of the center.

Mintid awoowe you can always question my intentions or impugne them If Habraha are all signing in kumbaya will help Silanyo negotiate with clear eyed fashion without looking his back. Awoowe politics is a dirty business there is always folks who would wish Silanyo's downfall and this might be an openning.

With all due respect NORF, you are assumptions on the discussions are fundamentally wrong. You are assuming the discussion is bewteen two equals. Like two independant states, correct? Well if that is the case then I am sorry to say you are ill-informed my good friend. Awoowe the discussion is between Somali Federal Republic and a region of SFR wanting to secede. If you start from this point then you will understand the HUGE leverage SFR has over Somaliland. As it happens SFR controlls banking, borders, ports and even the air. Silanyo has to contend with business class who stand to lose millions. In couple of years this project will crash if you don't find a way to get out of the blid you are in boowe. Silanyo has to either find a willing power to help him turn the tide or succumb to the inevitable reality of being a region of sovereign and independant country called Somali Federal Republic. The crazy option the so called nuclear option is to go war in preventing SFR to govern the country. I know you are broke like me trying to make the ends meet but remember there are business class in that corner of the country who are rational and they will at the end lean on Silanyo and tell him to bargain hard with Mogadishu. If you own an airline company or shipping company or have telecommunication outfit or you are Dhiigshiil the last thing you want to do is a wave a falg no one recognized and isolate yourself to small market. War jiraaba Cakaaro iman!

Where's Xiin? Prime Minister Saacid has nowhere to hide anymore. He can always say he visited his constituents, listened their concerns and concluded that there is no path forward What he cannot do if he's smart is issuing a dictat by appointing a transitional administration. He could very well be playing that card but it will backfire on two ways. One way it will backfire is there is deliberation by local constituents in progress. He's asked to consult with the local elders and facilitate the gathering in finding ways and means to establish a federal member state. The MPs, the traditional leaders, the business class, the rank and file of D block whose name he was chasen are adamant to implement their constitutional rights. Refuse and you will lose their support. The other way it could backfire is his government has no capacity to alter the dynamics on the ground. Here you have a region independent from Benadir in terms of finance and security. The PM has no leverage unless he is willing to forment a clannish conflict. Which brings me the point I was trying to make. Allah forbid if he goes down on that route then the fight against AS will be compromised in a major way. We'll see how it pans out.

Prof. Gandhi will go down in history books. He is a man of consequence. He helped create a different mindset in a community that given up hope in challenging other forces in the region, recruited folks who hold sway in Nairobi and Jigjiga, brought Farole to the fold and assured wealthy H community in East Africa a seat at the table without fielding sizable militia. He asked them to finance the project. He was also successful to sell the idea of D confederacy in the south mimicked after PL clan construct to the most important constituency in the region -- Gedo community. Many of us opposed Azania project from the outset. Some of us on humanitarian grounds. Others in clannish reasons. But when the rainy season passed and the casualty figures proved to be on the low side folks started focusing on AS and how to defeat them. The name which was a problematic also was tossed out and some of the affiliated AS allies were given a leading role if they help defeat AS. Prof. Gandhi was the central figure in all these decisions. He brilliantly challenged TFG in IGAD, UN and IC donor circles. He vowed to bring AS reign in Jubba to an end, presented a plan and his figures added up. He recruited soldiers from refugee camps in Kenya and asked technical and financial help. He got both. He also on on the most important fight with TFG which is recognizing these soldiers as part of TFG soldiers. Say what you want but this soft spokenman is a brilliant tactitian and solid leader. Hope he gets the leadership of the soon to be established federal state of Jubba. He deserves nothing less.

^That's the spirit Time will tell. The SL's secession ship has been in a collision course with reality. And we will know whether it crashes or the wiseman at the helm find a way to land it safely. Don't curse me gents for reminding you the episodes of this long running saga. I am kind of worrying that Habar vs. Habar misunderstanding might get out of hand. If I were in President Hassan's shoes I would find a way of giving Silanyo what he needs the most without altering the fundamentals of the social contract that made possible to end the transition. We'll see how it pans out in the course of time.

Finnaly InshaAllah khayr bay ku dhamaaneysaa.

metta;930410 wrote: Jubbaland" is 50% Al-Shabab where Middle Jubba is 100% controlled by Shabab. There shouldn't be any talks of Jubbaland permanent administration or even a temporary administration before Shabab is eliminated from those areas. Are you willing to apply the same logic on current admin in Mogadishu since large swaths of South Somalia is controlled by AS and the rest is under recovery areas like SL? Should folks deny support to Mogadishu admin and wait till it gets all these territories under its column? Don't worry awoowe Kismayo is a Somali city and if it gets a government chosen by its residents it will become another stable region under Mogadishu central government's column. I just don't understand why folks are adamant in supporting policies that are diametrically against their interest. Do they really want to be governed from the center via dictats? The minute Mogadishu admin start playing clannish games then you create a lose lose situation where foreign entities arm and support locals through proxy. You can't defeat them becuase they have the numbers, the resolve and the support of foreign neighboring state. AS also wins by default as the heat on them shifts.

True. My sometimes off base analysis misses the mark by a mile iyo hodhodho'. After all I have never step my skinny foot on Somalia since 1991. I am just another Somaliweyn supporter looking in from the outside. That being the case I always stand corrected if my feeds prove to be inaccurate. Now as they say war jiraaba cakaaro iman We'll soon find out if the stuff you've beed fed from tolka can stand up to the test of time. I am telling you folks Somalidu wax bey kala riixaneysaa. Jagada iyo martabada waa la isku maagi jidhay, haatan waa la isku heystaa, sidaasaana berrito loo kala riixan doonaa. If you think Durriyada greivances is limited to "we were colonized by different European power and we're striving to reconstitute now defunct bygone status then you are in for a surprise