No Italy, no Netherlands, no Algeria or Ghana.!!! i have no horse in this race. may the best team win. Waa koob aduun oo bilaa milix, bilaa muus iyo bilaa liin dhanaan ah, who the hell are Panama by the way.

This senile old man thrives on attention, they should have ignored him and his stupid remarks.

I think this is the usual Hajj window business, although it would be splendid for every Somali nomad if a complete lift on livestock ban materializes,

[Somtribune] Link: http://www.somtribune.com/2018/06/10/farmajo-puts-operation-lightning-strike-underway-to-hit-somaliland-positions-on-eid-day/ The Federal President of Somalia, Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo, put a well-orchestrated military plan his commanders dubbed ‘Operation Lightning Strike’ in full gear sending armament, ammunition, and trained troops to the battlefront with the Republic of Somaliland in the last two to three days – and still on. Planes were seen being loaded with crates upon crates containing millions of rounds of ammunition, disassembled heavy artillery, mortars and spare parts on the Halane side of the Adan Adde International airport of Mogadishu. Boarding the planes in an ordered fashion, fully-equipped military units estimated at a total of 600-1000 men, who had been trained at the Turkish base and elsewhere at the many other foreign-supported training grounds in and around Mogadishu, have also been identified in line with points 1.5 and 1.6 of the recently concluded security council meeting of the FGS and the Somalia Federal states in Baidoa. #OperationLightningStrike is planned to open multi-fronts on the Somaliland army currently in defensive positions near Tukkaraq village of Sool. The two armies of Somaliland and Puntland, fronting for Somalia, clashed in the area several times before with the latter suffering heavy casualties. The unabashed, openly waged campaigns on the Puntland side crying for clan support seems to be paying it dividends with the ill-concealed military, morale, and material support President Farmajo, who belongs to the same clan as Gass of Puntland, is ferrying nonstop to Garowe and adjacent airstrips. Very confidential sources who had witnessed the loading of commissioned planes have come to know that Somalia planned to put all its might behind a blitz offensive against Somaliland positions on Eid day or immediately after or before it. The plan is to penetrate the Somaliland defenses from several directions and to smuggle arms and ammunition into Las Anod city in order to try to capture the town from within so to isolate the frontline positions of the Somaliland army. Somalia, of recent, did not conceal its ambitions and claims against its erstwhile partner in the ill-fated political union of 1960, denying the fact that Somaliland joined its younger partner as a fully-fledged, sovereign, internationally recognized state with a constitution, functioning parliament and a ministerial council in place. Somaliland restored its lost independence in 1991 on an all-clan resolution at Burao and had since then been on its own for these past 27 years building a modern, very democratic, fully functioning state so commended by the international community. The international community started to open a dialogue between the two sides in 2012 but had not had the drive or the commitment to see it through. The talks petered off eventually after Somalia started to disdainfully violate agreed parameters one after the other. Unchecked and unreprimanded, it has now come to a stage where Somali is once more starting another civil strife, not unlike that of the 1980s between Somaliland fighters and the southern-dominated military regime of Siyad Barre which ended in his ignominious deposal in January 1991. Political analysts accuse Farmajo and his kinsman Gass of embarking on a revenge political and military offensive against the more successful, peaceful enclave that is the Republic of Somaliland. Somaliland is not very confident that an international community which previously failed to check the excesses of Somalia in failing the talks can come up with a meaningful resistance or even expose it now that the FGS’s Farmaajo is openly arming Puntland and sending it troops all belonging to one clan. On the other hand, many Somalians across a wide political spectrum are increasingly becoming disturbed and uncertain of where President Farmajo’s disoriented leadership is taking them. Not only in remote areas are the AMISOM and the US troops battling Al shabaab but Mogadishu, itself is witnessing a revival of street fights with hitherto sleeping cells of an emboldened insurgency. This despite an estimated 80 000 to 100 000 troops – registered and unregistered – since the Kenyan and Ethiopian presence is known to swell with unknown numbers as their respective commands deem necessary. The picture below where President Farmaajo, himself, is frisked by AMISOM foot soldiers at the gate of the Hallane compound, near the international airport, where the international community lives and works starkly, portrays Somalia’s current situation.

Those mountaineers and Ethiopians in general have an inherent characteristic -in some sense or another- called patriotism, a trait -as much as it is hard to admit- we Somalis simply lack. The word [patriot] doesn't exist in the Somali vocabulary.

Yes, Somalia is a husk of it is former self; but they are still scared of the remnants as they were in those days.

[The New York Times] WASHINGTON — An American Special Operations forces soldier was killed and four others were wounded on Friday in an attack in southwestern Somalia against fighters for the Islamic extremist group the Shabab, three Defense Department officials said. The casualties were the first to have been publicized in Africa since an ambush in Niger in October. The American forces were alongside Somali troops at a small outpost near the town of Jamaame when they came under small arms and mortar fire, Defense Department officials said on Friday. The American team was backed up by armed surveillance aircraft overhead, but it could not determine the location of the mortar fire in what one official called “a very quick engagement” by the militants. The Shabab, an affiliate of Al Qaeda, claimed responsibility for the attack; it has been fighting American forces in East Africa for more than a decade. In a post picked up by the SITE Intelligence Group, which monitors online extremist message boards, the Shabab said that its fighters had struck a joint American-Somali base on the outskirts of Kismayo, mounting what it called a “fierce attack.” The roughly 500 American troops in Somalia are mostly composed of a number of Special Operations units, including Army Green Berets, Marine Raiders and Navy SEALs spread across the country. Friday’s fight, the extremist group said, came a day after the Shabab overran a Somali National Army base near Baidoa and ambushed other Somali soldiers in the Huriwa district of Mogadishu, the capital. In a statement on Friday evening, the United States Africa Command said that one of the four injured Americans received medical care in the field, while the remaining three were evacuated. They were among a large force of 800 Somali and Kenyan soldiers conducting a “multiday operation” around 200 miles southwest of Mogadishu when the attack occurred. “The mission’s objectives were to clear Al Shabab from contested areas,” Africom said. The attacks come as the American military looks to draw down counterterrorism forces in Africa as part of a larger Pentagon plan to pivot its focus on combating Russia, China and other great powers. It was the second American combat death in Somalia in the past 13 months. Last May, a member of the Navy SEALs was killed and two other American service members were wounded in a raid that the Pentagon initially described as an “advise, assist and accompany” mission. Defense Department officials initially said that Somali government troops had led that operation, and the Shabab militants had attacked American forces that were hanging back. But American military leaders later acknowledged that the Navy SEALs were operating alongside the Somali military when they launched the raid. In October, an ambush in Niger killed four American soldiers, their interpreter and four Nigerien troops. That attack has opened a debate in Washington over the American military mission in Africa. The Pentagon has carefully monitored the spread of radical Islamic jihad across Africa but insisted that American troops are there to train and team up with local forces, not necessarily to fight. Over the past year, American military officials have expressed new concerns about the Shabab, which was responsible for one of the deadliest terrorist attacks on African soil when it struck a popular mall in 2013 in Nairobi, Kenya. Officials worry the extremist group is in the middle of a resurgence after losing much of the territory it once held in Somalia and many of its fighters in the last several years. In September 2014, American officials said they believed a drone strike crippled the group by killing its leader, Ahmed Abdi Godane, who at the time was one of the most wanted men in Africa. Another strike followed in March 2015, when Adan Garar, a senior member of the Shabab, was killed in his vehicle. But the Shabab no longer appears to be crippled by the deaths of Mr. Godane and Mr. Garar. In the past two months, Shabab militants have claimed responsibility for attacks that have killed more than 150 people, including Kenyan soldiers stationed at a remote desert outpost and beachcombers in Mogadishu. Two months ago, the group carried out multiple coordinated attacks against African Union peacekeeping forces, killing dozens of Ugandan soldiers. On Monday, The New York Times reported that a sweeping Pentagon review of elite United States commando missions is likely to result in a sharp cut — by as much as half over the next three years — in Special Operations forces in Africa. On comedic note trump defies Auoto-correct/Spellcheck, or he simply doesn't have the IQ to proof-read his own tweets.

Trump vs spellcheck.

O_O, Somalis do not fight for principles, but for their respective clans; and any kind of war, (proxy or not) increases the existing tribal animosity. only through dialogue can Somalis coexist. as it has always been.

Documents reveal Britain made secret deal to defend Kenya in case of invasion by Somalia Britain made a secret undertaking in 1967 to defend Kenya in case of an invasion by Somalia, declassified documents recently released from the Prime Minister’s office in London reveal. The deal, known as the “Bamburi Understanding”, was a reassurance following a non-committal statement made by Mr Duncan Sandys, the British Secretary of State for the Colonies, in 1964. Without making any concrete commitment, Mr Sandys had told Kenya’s new government that in case of an attack by Somalia, it was probable that Britain would intervene. Somalia, which was then considered to have one of the region’s most powerful armies equipped with sophisticated Soviet-made weapons, had threatened to annex the north eastern part of Kenya in pursuit of its Greater Somalia policy. President Jomo Kenyatta’s administration had since independence in 1963 been grappling with a secessionist conflict in the north east, known as the Shifta War, that was supported by Somalia. Indeed, Somali Prime minister Muhammad Egal had told British MPs in 1962 of the intention to unite all territories occupied by Somalis in Kenya and Ethiopia When Somalia’s aggressive action seemed likely to lead to an invasion of Kenya in 1966, President Kenyatta quickly dispatched Attorney-General Charles Njonjo and Agriculture Minister Bruce Mckenzie to London to pressure the British government to not only give reassurances of protecting Kenya but also provide more sophisticated equipment. DECLASSIFIED DOCUMENTS According to the declassified documents, although the British government turned down the request for arms terming it “unrealistic”, Prime Minister Harold Wilson, in a private message to President Kenyatta, committed to consider protecting Kenya from Somalia’s aggression. This private message marked “secret” was what came to be known as the “Bamburi Understanding”. “If Kenya were the victim of outright aggression by Somalia, the British government would give the situation most urgent consideration. While the British government cannot in advance give the Kenya Government any assurance of automatic assistance, the possibility of Britain giving the Kenyans assistance in the event of organised and unprovoked armed attack by Somalia is not precluded,” the message read. Nine months after the “Bamburi Understanding”, a key diplomatic milestone was achieved when mediation spearheaded by Zambian President Kenneth Kaunda led to the signing of the Arusha Memorandum between Kenya and Somalia to end border hostilities. But the Somalia government, which had signed the Arusha Memorandum, was overthrown and replaced by a military junta led by General Siad Barre in 1969. This resulted in apprehension with senior Kenyan officials fearing that General Barre was more likely to revive and pursue the Greater Somalia ambitions actively. ANOTHER BLOW As if that was not enough, Kenya suffered another blow when the British Labour administration, which had made defence commitments through the “Bamburi Understanding,” was replaced by the Conservatives under Prime Minister Edward Heath in June 1970, creating further anxiety. This sudden turn of events forced President Kenyatta to send Mr Njonjo and Mr Mckenzie with a private letter seeking reaffirmation from the new British Prime Minister on maintaining the security understanding. “I have asked them (Mr Njonjo and Mr Mckenzie) to discuss with you what we now here call the Bamburi Understanding. I hope that you will kindly discuss this matter with my ministers who have my authority to do so. I am keen that the understanding should be continued with your government,” read the letter dated August 30, 1970 and signed by President Kenyatta. Mr Mckenzie, who was on sick leave in Britain, booked the appointment with the Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) to deliver the letter to Number 10 Downing Street, the Prime Minister’s residence in London. The appointment was confirmed for September 8, 1970 at 11 am. A BRIEF Four days before the meeting, a brief was forwarded to Prime Minister Heath by the FCO warning that President Kenyatta was going to be unhappy if Britain refused to carry on with the “Bamburi Understanding”. The brief argued that Kenyans were among the most moderate on the “Arms for South Africa” issue — in reference to Britain selling weapons to the Apartheid government despite widespread opposition from many African countries — making it crucial for the new British government not to antagonise them. In the brief that was written in the context of the Cold War between the Western and Eastern blocs, the Prime Minister was also advised to raise British concerns with the Kenyan emissaries about the Soviet Union’s attempts to penetrate East Africa. There was also to be the clincher that the former colonial masters were willing to co-operate on the defence problem so long as British soldiers were allowed continued access to Kenyan military facilities. Biographical notes annexed to the brief further give insights on how the British viewed the two Kenyan ministers. Mr Njonjo was described as one of the closest and friendliest ministers to the British High Commission in Nairobi. Although he lacked political will or the grassroots support to win the presidency, he was viewed as a leading architect in the Kenyatta succession. ALSO INFORMED The Prime Minister’s office was also informed that Mr Njonjo loved to have mid-morning tea with hot milk but there should also be Indian tea with cold milk and Chinese tea with lemon. In their brief, the British officials, however, sneered that Mr Njonjo’s undoing in the Kenyan political context was that he was “obviously presenting a very Western image politically and personally even to the extent of a black jacket and striped trousers and a rose buttonhole daily”. On his part, Mr Mckenzie was described as a “dynamo of the Kenya Government machine” whose influence extended far beyond his Agriculture ministry. He was also described as a member of President Kenyatta’s inner circle who had gained the respect of the Kenyan European community with whom he previously had a difficult relationship. “But he always puts Kenya’s interest first. Tries to be genuinely non-aligned when it serves Kenya’s interests,” added the FCO brief. However, Kenya had a special request to make: It wanted Mr Njonjo’s presence in London and the existence of the “Bamburi Understanding” kept secret. Not even the Kenyan High Commissioner in London was supposed to know about the mission, according to a confidential letter from a Mr McClauney of the FCO to the Prime Minister’s office. STATEMENT RELEASED Mr McClauney, however, advised that if Mr Njonjo’s visit leaked, a statement should be released that he had brought a personal message from President Kenyatta and that it was not the practice to disclose the contents of such messages. And if the media assumed that the subject of the meeting was selling arms to South Africa, then this assumption should be allowed to stand. The secrecy of the meeting was emphasised to Prime Minister Heath by the British Secretary of State: “While I understand that you wish in general for publicity to be given to your discussion with African and other Commonwealth leaders, we feel that in this case it would be right to respect the Kenyan request, in so far as we can do so without appearing disingenuous.” Arrangements were, therefore, made for Mr Njonjo and Mr Mckenzie to enter the British Prime Minister’s office through the Cabinet office instead of the main entrance to avoid public attention. During the meeting, the declassified documents indicate, Mr Mckenzie pointed out the importance of reaffirming the “Bamburi Understanding”. In return, the British forces would be free to continue using Nairobi Airport, the Mombasa port as well as military training facilities in Kenya. They also had great interest in retaining the British special forces who were training Kenya’s General Service Unit commandos and the Special Branch. The visiting ministers linked the work the British special forces were doing in Kenya to the security arrangement against Somali’s aggression. NOTHING WRONG In response, the British Prime Minister said that in principle he saw nothing wrong in reaffirming the “Bamburi Understanding” but promised to have the issue fully considered and a reply sent to President Kenyatta. Prime Minister Heath also promised to consider the request to have the special forces remain in Kenya and pointed out his government did not wish to reduce the use of Kenyan military facilities by British troops. He, however, warned that British military resources were stretched at the time because of instability in Northern Ireland. But the discussions went beyond defence matters, according to the documents. Mr Njonjo and Mr Mckenzie also discussed development and diplomatic issues. For example, they said that while they appreciated Britain’s support, there were problems with the administration of the aid programme since conditions laid down by the previous Labour government were inflexible, projects were delayed and important payments also held up longer than necessary. Mr Mckenzie suggested it would be helpful if Kenya’s Finance minister Mwai Kibaki, who was at an International Monetary Fund meeting in Copenhagen, passed through London to meet the British minister for Overseas Development. SPECIAL INTEREST The two also felt that Kenya no longer enjoyed close contacts with British government officials and urged Prime Minister Heath to ask one of his junior ministers to take a special interest in Africa and get to know the continent’s leaders personally. Following the meeting, British officials embarked on drafting the Prime Minister’s reply. But they also secretly noted Mr Mckenzie’s and Mr Njonjo’s ignorance on the “Bamburi Understanding” for linking it to the presence of British special forces and access to Kenyan military facilities. While the arrangement for British forces to use Kenyan military facilities, airports and harbours was agreed upon at independence with Mr Sandys, who was the British Secretary of State for the Colonies, and the training of the GSU commandoes came into existence in December 1964, the “Bamburi Understanding” was in January 1967. But British Foreign Secretary Sir Alec Douglas-Home did not think it was worth getting into an argument on the three issues in the Prime Minister’s letter to President Kenyatta. IN EXISTENCE As late as May 1981, the agreement was still in existence, according to a brief prepared for Margaret Thatcher, the first female British Prime minister (1979-1990), when she met Kenya’s then Foreign Minister Robert Ouko in London. “Kenya has our friendship/support. Kenya policy to stand on her own feet militarily is right. We will continue to help Kenya absorb new equipment,” said the brief. It added that in case Somali attacked Kenya “UK would give all help it could, but it is unlikely our response could include commitment of combat troops. Nor indeed do we suppose that Kenya would wish for this.” Ironically, despite the fears in the 1960s, it was the Kenyan Defence Forces that would go into Somalia decades later, in October 2011, to pursue al-Shabaab terrorists. The Kenyan forces are now part of the African Union Mission in Somalia that is trying to restore security in the country that has been grappling with civil war since the collapse of the Barre regime in 1991. Link: https://www.nation.co.ke/news/documents-britain-secret-deal-defend-kenya-invasion-somalia/1056-3497398-yd1tasz/index.html

[Bloomberg] Ethiopia’s prime minister appointed a new army chief of staff with a specialist’s background on Eritrea, days after authorities said they’d implement a peace deal with their Horn of Africa neighbor and long-standing foe. The appointment of Seare Mekonnen marks the first change at the top in 17 years in Ethiopia’s army, which plays a dominant role in the country that has Africa’s biggest population after Nigeria. He belongs to the Tigrayan ethnic group that’s largely held the top ranks of the military, security and intelligence services since the then-rebel Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front seized power. His appointment was announced late Thursday by Fana Broadcasting Corp., which is funded by the ruling party. Named one of three deputy chiefs of staff earlier this year, Seare also previously headed the military’s northern command, whose jurisdiction covers areas bordering Eritrea. Eritrea declared independence from Ethiopia in 1993 after decades of conflict, and the nations have been at odds after a 1998-2000 border war that claimed thousands of lives. A peace deal signed in 2000 was never implemented, with Ethiopia refusing to recognize a monitor’s findings on ownership of a disputed town. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed pledged in April that the country will “resolve problems” with Eritrea. Abiy also named Adem Mohammed as new director-general of the National Intelligence and Security Services, Fana reported on Thursday. Adem, an ethnic Amhara who previously commanded Ethiopia’s air force, was also appointed as a deputy chief of staff earlier this year. Link: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-07/ethiopia-appoints-new-chief-of-staff-for-powerful-military

I never knew jahli could reach mental retardation.

Basically they allege the FSG gave the money to Muuse Biixi directly to instigate instability in "SSC". is this jealousy or something else?!! [Baroortu Orgiga ka wayn]. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ypTAwTuLv4

Ethiopia's policy to conquer the Somali territories by the sheer number of their population has been in the making for sometime now, and it is a patient and long term game. the sad thing is that most Somalis dismiss this idea as a conspiracy theory.

Nazir Manek [Bloomberg] Landlocked Ethiopia is planning to build a navy, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed said during a briefing of the heads of the country’s National Defense Force. “Following the efforts made to build capacity of our national defense, we built one of the stronger ground and air forces in Africa,” the ruling party-funded Fana Broadcasting Corp. reported Abiy as saying on Friday. “We should build our naval force capacity in the future.” Two calls to the mobile phone of Abiy’s national security adviser, Abadula Gemada, didn’t connect. Ethiopia currently has a civilian Ethiopian Maritime Training Institute on Lake Tana. It trains more than 500 marine engineers and electro-technical officers each year and plans to increase this to more than 1,000 officers annually, according to its website. Abiy’s government in May agreed to develop Port Sudan on the Red Sea and agreed with Djibouti to swap shares in state-owned ports, airlines, and telecommunications. It also agreed to acquire land at Kenya’s Lamu Port for “logistical facilitation,” according to a joint communiqué issued after a meeting between Abiy and Kenyan president Uhuru Kenyatta. Earlier this year, Ethiopia took a stake in a port in Somaliland, a semi-autonomous part of Somalia that aspires to statehood and borders Djibouti. Somaliland will host a naval base for the United Arab Emirates. i wonder who's coastline this navy will be stationed?!! Link : https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-01/ethiopia-shakes-up-board-at-military-affiliated-corporation

Gargaara is one of the most affected areas by Cyclone Sagar; thank you Djibouti for bringing much needed aid for the people in that area.

Waa runtaa; nin reer xoolo dhaqato ah ama beer iska fasha, halbeegiisa ugu sareeya ee bulshana yahay INA ADEER ayay reer galbeed u keeneen wax-uusan ab iyo dhaxal toona u lahayn, weliba markaasaan la barin hab dhaqanka iyo farshaxanimada dhidibka u ah geedi socodkan doolka ah. Khayr ayay ku danbayn insha allah.

LOL, Lajiifiyana banaan , waad iga qoslisay, Galmudug waxaaba la odhan karaa waaba hal gobol iyo badh, waana macquul marka la eego halka ay marayso caqliyada garasho ee soomaalidu, balse waxaan la yaabanahay; wadaajinta arrimo aan is lahay amaba aan is qaban [Illusory Correlation] sida ka muuqata jaantuska ku lifaaqan dhigmadan. somalidu waxay ku maahmaadaa geelow soco soco maalinkaad ciin daaqdaa laguu yaabaa, hadaba maalinkay Federal aanay waxba ka aqoon faraha la gashay ayaa loo yaabaa sidaan qabo.

Yes, in International politics Eastern sool, Eastern Sanaag, and Buhodle district are labaled as disputed. I am not also debating "IF"s and "BUT"s. What i don't get is how a future hypothetical Somaliland within the fold of a Somali Federal Government would look like, [Laba Gobol iyo wixii ka badan] being the emphasis. re-drawing or swapping land along tribal lines demarcation, often on a district level is just dangerous.

it is understandable from an anti succession point of view; or setting the account straight for that matter -int the mind of whoever- drew this "map", but from a practicality on the ground perspective, it is just unfeasible.

If Somaliland ever becomes part of the current Federal Somalia; it would be within the borders of the British Protectorate, or at most two federal states (Awdal, Waqooyi galbeed) (Sool, sanaag, Togdheer). what is drawn here is just an improbable imagination !! how do you connect those islands? would the current unratified constitution going to be amended to suit the -pure tribalistic- imagination of the artist? i thought it was [Laba gobol iyo wixii ka badan], but here the only intact gobol is Awdal. Everythng else is drawn willy-nilly.

Indeed lots of fun; creativity is the limit here. "Ridge lift (or 'slope lift') is created when a wind strikes an obstacle, usually a mountain ridge or cliff, that is large and steep enough to deflect the wind upward."

Hargeisa Cultural Center on a rainy afternoon.

Anadolu Agency By Dr. Brendon Cannon and Dr. Ash Rossiter ABU DHABI In the Horn of Africa, the Republic of Somaliland has functioned as an independent country for close to three decades. It has held multiple elections, seen four presidents take office, prints its own money and issues its own visas, and its capital city, Hargeisa, houses two parliamentary bodies that pass and enact laws. However, it remains an unrecognized country and is viewed by the rest of the world’s states as part of the Republic of Somalia with its capital in Mogadishu. For almost an equally lengthy time, Ethiopia has been landlocked and completely reliant on its neighbors, particularly Djibouti, for imports and exports. This occurred when Eritrea broke away from Ethiopia in 1993, thereby resulting in Ethiopia’s loss of a lengthy coastline and ports. This has greatly complicated Ethiopia’s rise as a regional power and hampered the development of its 102 million people. The situation in the Horn of Africa is changing rapidly, however. In a recent article published in Rising Powers Quarterly, we sought to demonstrate how Ethiopia and Somaliland have been able to advance their interests by taking advantage of the recent involvement of various Arab Gulf States (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates) in the Horn of Africa’s coastal zone. This is affecting the regional distribution of power to its advantage and reducing its dependency on Djibouti’s port for imports and exports through the refurbishment, development and use of other, regional ports: Port Sudan in Sudan, Berbera in the Somaliland region of Somalia, and Mombasa in Kenya. It is the development of the port of Berbera that has proved the most radical in terms of challenging regional power dynamics as well as international law. Berbera Port’s importance From a geostrategic perspective, Ethiopia’s interest in Berbera is obvious. Of the three ports, Berbera is closest to Ethiopia proper and offers the potential of opening up the vast, albeit isolated eastern region of Ethiopia to trade, particularly in the export of livestock and agriculture. Yet because the port is located in the de-facto independent Republic of Somaliland, both Ethiopia and Somaliland have experienced difficulty in attracting investors and port operators on account of the political and legal headaches associated with doing business in Somaliland. For Somaliland, development of the port would not only bring in much needed investment and jobs, but a deal signed by Hargeisa would show tacit, albeit obvious international support for Somaliland’s independence from Mogadishu. For Ethiopia, the development and expansion of the port of Berbera fundamentally support the primary pillars of Addis Ababa’s regional policy that support its aspirations for regional hegemony and are deemed essential to its very survival and indivisibility. The first involves maintaining Eritrea’s isolation in order to weaken it to the point that it implodes, is formally reunited to Ethiopia or becomes a pliant, client state. The second pillar rests on maintaining the status quo in post-civil war Somalia. Simply put, a weak and fractured Somalia means that Ethiopia can concentrate its attention and forces on quelling persistent internal security difficulties and continuing to isolate and pressure Eritrea. Ethiopia has, until recently, been assisted in its goals vis-à-vis Somalia as much by the international community as by internal problems within Somalia. The cross-purposes of the international community coupled with and reinforcing political instability in Somalia, particularly in the capital Mogadishu, have resulted in the inability of the Somali Federal Government (SFG) to do anything substantive about the de-facto independent Republic of Somaliland as well as the almost entirely autonomous northeastern region of Puntland. Ethiopia’s efforts and Gulf Arab interest Ethiopia has eyed the development of and access to the port of Berbera against this backdrop. However, Addis Ababa found itself unable to fully exploit opportunities to expand its influence and power -- not only because of the potential legal and political headaches of doing deals with Somaliland -- but also because of a paucity of critical resources and human capital. These deficiencies were partially alleviated with the entry of the Arab Gulf States to the region, especially the coastal zone beginning in the late 2000s in an effort to secure favorable trade and resources, as well as curtail Iran’s growing presence. However, it was the Yemen crisis that led Saudi Arabia to announce the beginning of a pan-Arab military operation to roll back the Iran-backed Houthis and restore the government. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) -- the two principal military members of the coalition -- initially used Djibouti as a support hub for operations in southern Yemen. Yet difficult relations with Djibouti led the UAE, in 2015, to sign a lease with Eritrea for its Hanish Islands and facilities at the port city of Assab for 30 years. The deal with Eritrea panicked Addis Ababa, with Ethiopian leaders viewing any expansion of Eritrean power as a corresponding loss of power for Ethiopia. Ethiopia dispatched officials to Abu Dhabi to plead for a shift in focus to Somaliland’s port of Berbera. Ethiopia’s diplomatic push and offer of economic incentives in the form of export/import traffic, coinciding with an increased UAE focus on stemming the flow of weaponry into Yemen, led to Addis Ababa’s desired results when DP World signed an agreement to develop and manage Berbera Port for 30 years in May 2016. Analyzing Berbera Port deal It is unlikely that DP World would have signed the deal over Berbera if it did not see at least some long-term commercial benefit and there appear to be strong economic incentives for both Ethiopia and Somaliland. For example, Dubai will reportedly support Somaliland’s fisheries industry; help build the road between Somaliland and Ethiopia; and build a Free Zone at the Berbera port. The port will be supported mainly by the export of livestock and import of goods to both Somaliland and Ethiopia. However, there are also military and political dimensions to the tripartite agreement. Separate to DP World’s deal, Somaliland’s government agreed to the establishment of a UAE military installation at Berbera. The base, only 90 kilometers from the shores of Yemen, is intended to help the UAE forces tighten its blockade against Yemen. Politically, the Berbera Port deal has been groundbreaking. At the stroke of a pen, Somaliland took a massive step towards international recognition and permanent separation from Somalia. While neither Ethiopia nor the UAE have voiced recognition, the deal inked in Dubai certainly makes it seem that way if the anger in Mogadishu is any indication. Somalia Federal Government ministers have publicly challenged the right of Somaliland to enter into official agreements with any country. The Ethiopian-driven deal means that Mogadishu’s claims over the breakaway territory have weakened substantially. The deal means that Somaliland has partially broken the glass ceiling of international recognition by entering into substantive deals with viable business partners and states operating on the global stage. Mogadishu can no longer pretend it controls the government in Somaliland’s capital Hargeisa. Regardless of the dissatisfaction in both Somaliland and Somalia surrounding the UAE’s deal with Hargeisa, Ethiopia has engineered -- largely behind the scenes -- access to another port, thus enhancing its security and strategic economic interests. The reality is that with the growth in annual volumes of Ethiopian transit cargo -- over nine million tons in 2011 -- Ethiopia has long required alternative routes for its cargo from Djibouti. With the signing of the port deal, the slowly-dying port of Berbera will see investments totaling US$442 million for the management and development of a “world-class, multi-purpose deep seaport project.” The UAE has also reportedly agreed to build a modern highway between Berbera Port and the Somaliland / Ethiopia border town of Wachale / Wajaale. This will link with the modern highway on the Ethiopian side of the border. Additionally, when the deal was signed between DP World and Somaliland, Ethiopia ensured its substantive presence in the running and development of the port in the form of Ethiopian Shipping Lines. ESL will reportedly control 19 percent share in the deal -- almost twice as much as it initially expected to receive. This was partially confirmed later by Hussein Ige Dayr, a spokesperson for the president of Somaliland, who noted, that DP World had allocated close to one-fifth of the port’s capacity for Ethiopian shipments (JOC). Somaliland Foreign Minister Saad Ali Shire further confirmed the percentage, noting that DP World sold 14 percent of its shares to Ethiopia with the government of Somaliland selling five percent of its shares to Ethiopia. Lastly, Ethiopia was able to engineer a formal, legally-binding agreement between the de-facto but unrecognized, independent state of Somaliland and the UAE. In doing so, Ethiopia further ensured the continuing Balkanization of Somalia and potentially paved the way for eventual de-jure, international recognition of the Republic of Somaliland. Dr. Brendon Cannon is Assistant Professor at Khalifa University’s Institute of International and Civil Security (IICS), Abu Dhabi, UAE. Dr. Cannon’s academic specializations are in the changing balance of power in the wider Middle East region – particularly the Horn of Africa; energy politics, policy and security (GCC and Northeast Asia); and international security. Dr. Ash Rossiter is an Assistant Professor in International Security within the Department of Humanities & Social Science at Khalifa University of Science & Technology. Dr. Rossiter’s current research lies at the intersection of technological change and global security with special regard to the utility of military force international affairs.

This is crazy, why does Puntland need to recruit kids? don't they have enough grown men for their army?