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Everything posted by galbeedi
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Next Phase of Ethiopia's Civil War: Tigray vs Amhara
galbeedi replied to Che -Guevara's topic in Politics
News flash for Mr. Biden and company. Threatening sanctions and cutting money couldn't stop anyone to behave the American way lately. How about TPLF stop killing people in Afar state and other places? The latest news from the other side is that Turkey had sent five intelligence officers to Maqale Via Addis to negotiate. They will be offering full humanitarian supply of food and other material and rebuilding of Tigray , cease fire from both sides and autonomy for Tigray. In exchange, they must accept the leadership of Abiy and the unity of Ethiopia. Turkey has a long relationship with the TPLF who introduced Turkey to Ethiopia, at the same time Turkey will not allow anyone to overrun Addis Abbaba or the disintegration of Ethiopia which will badly effect Somalia and the region. Jawar Mohamed is under house arrest and will be released soon according to Turkish side. He will be allowed to keep and build his party for the next election, and work with the current leadership to steer Ethiopia out of more ethnic strive and disintegration. Furthermore, Turkey want to bring Sudan and Ethiopia together and lower the tone of the DAM issue for a moment. Reconnaissance drones from Turkey have arrived in Addis already. According to the Turks, if the TPLF refuses peace and cease fire and continue to threaten the Abiy leadership and keep ridding the American bandwagon of regime change, then they will be targeted by the Turkish drones to protect their billions of investment in Ethiopia. The 15% of the remaining Ethiopian officers under Abiy Ahmed--the rest were mostly Tigray---- had either bribed by the TPLF or abandoned their positions. I even heard that Turkey will bring some new young Ethiopian officers to Mogadishu base to be trained by Turkey. This war has also exposed how useless the Amhara army and officers are. At least we won't be hearing anymore Amhara boasting of Ethiopian ownership. If Somali Galbeed folks want to be among the main protectionists of Ethiopian power and leadership, now is the time.They must demand more autonomy and join the forces and the officer corps of Ethiopia. -
Does these lunatics in Mogadishu think money grows from the tree? What does it cost bringing those appointed from the parliament to Mogadishu? The whole thing shouldn't be even two millions. The Somaliland election which was one person one vote cost around 13 million if I am not mistaken. This weak prime minister should hold the election soon, and stop flying around.
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We heard before what took place in Addis Ababa office room between Muuse Biixi and president Farmaajo in Feberaury of 2020 . Those accounts were from the Farmaajo side. Now let us hear from those who were with Muuse Biixi. Folks, we have reliable information you could take straight to the bank. WE have insider accounts from those who were present after the meeting concluded and what took place in Hargeisa afterwards. Neither Farmaajo nor Biixi were notified about the nature of the meeting and its agenda according to Somaliland officials who were present. While they were aware about the coming meeting between the two, everyone from the Somaliland side assumed that this could be one of those early courtesy and useless meetings that took place among Somali leaders and Somaliland which never produced anything meaningful. THey were both invited and brought to the Menelik palace and put inside the same room with their accompanying officials. Without formal introduction, prime minister Abiy Ahmed showed up and demanded that the senior aides and other ministers to leave the room except Farmaajo and Biixi. Certainly Farmaajo and Abiy had prior meeting about the Somaliland issue before and the Ethiopian premier had his own conclusions about the case. According to insiders Abiy explained the Somaliland issue in simple terms that doesn't require lectures or long Somali civil war history. He said, " Everty thing that is taking place in the horn of Africa is the result of the collapse of the Somali state, and Somaliland is nothing but the result of that collapse. The disappearance of that state had created a huge problems not only for Somalis who dispersed around the globe as refugees, but also for Oromo and others". He continued, " There was no Oromo national awareness in Ethiopia before Siyad Barre and Somalia before nineteen seventies. It was Somalia who wrote the Oromo alphabet and the first Oromo language broadcasting were staged in Mogadishu. And today the Oromo people will not succeed without strong and united Somali state" "We fought with Eritrea with less than two decades ago and we both lost about 100,000 people, yet we made peace and forgot about the past. Your problems were in another era, the era of the cold war, with both Somalia and Ethiopia led by ambitious leaders to control the horn by force". He said, " we have larger plans in the region to integrate our economy and create wealth for the people of the region, so I want you guys to debate and make a useful conclusion before I came back, and he left the room". Just like that Abiy Ahmed left the room and told the Somalis to make an agreement. President Farmaajo made a short argument and concluded his remarks by saying that he is " willing to step down and transfer power to the separatists led by Muuse Biixi". For Muuse Biixi who had traveled so many winding roads to reach the former house of general Morgan and manage $200 million dollar budget , that was a huge surprise. He told Farmaajo that before they conclude their agreements, he must make an official and public apology for the things that took place during the regime of late president Siyaad Barre. Farmaajo accepted that, but since Biixi was not prepared of of these sudden surprises and how Abiy made everything simple, he didn't know what to do next. Just like the previous time , Abiy Ahmed came back and asked, " did you finish the agreement? ( Waar ma heshiseen). They both said yeas. Then he said we will move to the next stage and concluded his meeting. When biixi left the room and met his Somaliland delegation, they asked him, what happened. " war maxaa meesha ka dhacay? Muuse: Waa La Heshiiyey oo Midooba ayaa la yidhi. Oo maxaad ku jawaabtay? Muuse: Midnimo Ayaan Qaatay. Waxaan Ka baqay in meesha la igu xidho.\ The paranoid colonel said he accepted for union, and due to the circumstances, he was unable to say no. He even thought that Abiy and Ethiopia might detain him if he refused. Folks, this is not a far fetched idea. Mohamed Bin Salman has detained the prime minister of Lebanon few years ago after he refused to flow orders. Balaayo anagaa aragnay. Waxii dhacay dhac, Hargeisa la soo aaday. When Muuse came to Hargeisa and consulted with others, many out of touch Hargeisa politicians thought that this was a bad joke from Abiy and must be rejected. They suggested to him to play the usual runaround and throw some obstacles. Farmaajo, on the other hand, fulfilled his promise and apologized whatever crimes the Somali regime committed in Hargeisa. Balantiisii waa fuliyey. Then after few months or so, the Ethiopian foreign Ministry called its representative in Hargeisa, Mr. Shamsudiin Ahmed. He was in his way to Borama and turned around to meet with Mr. Biixi. He told them that the Ethiopian government informed him to notify Biixi the arrival of Hargeisa by Abiy Ahmed and Farmaajo within the next few days. He gave them 24 hours for an answer. Hargeisa way waalatay. Waar ma Farmaajo oo lawado ayaa la inoo keenya? WAar maxaynu yeelnaa? Mr.Biixi called the opposition including Wadani presidential candidate C/rahman Cirro, chairman C/qadir Jirde, Faysal Waraabe, C/raxman Zaylici , Guurti Chief Saleebaan Gaal, Parliament leader Baashe M. Farah and his deputy. The old man Saleebaan Gaal said, ' tell him Abiy he can come, but do not bring Farmaajo. Faysal Waraabe complained how Biixi dropped the ball by accepting the unity in the first place and suggested a delegation to be sent to Addis. Others said that they cannot just say no to Ethiopia at this stage. In fact, this was before Abiy waged the Tigray war and his flag was flying high. Finally, the only statesman left in Somaliland, Mr. C/qadir Jirde , said, " Tell Abiy we accepted his unity policy and his future plans to bring president Farmaajo to Hargeisa, but before you guys come together, there are few issues our parliamentary leaders and I, Mr. Biixi would like to discuss with you in person . Finally, Mr. Biixi accepted that advice and informed the Ethiopian government. Moreover, Abiy Ahmed understood the runaround games of the Hargeisa group and declined not to come alone, but somehow changed his strategy . He proceeded to engage the regional countries, USA and some European countries to help his unity plans for Somalia. While the wheel was turning and America and others came aboard, Abiy forgot to add Djibouti to the process either accidentally or assumed to be an easy country that would welcome the unity. Finally, they said, " why don't we hold our next meeting in Djibouti itself". Cumar Geelle accepted to host the meeting , but ahead of time, decided that both Abiy and Farmaajo are rushing the issues and prepared his obstacles along with the British ambassador of Somalia. Together they proposed to appoint a committee to prepare for future engagement including exchanges among the youth and people. At the end Omar Geelle had delayed the process and then the TPLF problems became huge which consumed the energy and enthusiasm Abiy had for Somali unity. Since then Mr. Biixi himself has immersed with the Mogadishu election and is hoping for Farmaajo to win. Farmaajo is busy with re-election and Abiy is fighting for his life. The sure thing is that if Abiy defeats the evil TPLF a lot will change in our region. The order the TPLF created in 1991--the Pax Tigraica-could collapse as we know it.
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Agree. War profiteers are the only one getting rich. Doesn't matter how much others do, unless you help your self nothing changes.
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Look at this kid. Except collages or universities associated with Catholic or Protestant institutions, most teachers in the western countries are atheists.It is hard to find a christian professor these days. It is the teachers associations in high school level that are forcing sexual education to elementary students. I would rather have a practicing Christian with morals teach my kids than the corrupt Darwinians atheists who believe we all came from monkeys.
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A decade ago, when Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, then prime minister, set foot in Mogadishu, the most high-profile visit by a non-African leader to Somalia attracted the world’s attention to the dire humanitarian crisis in the country. Turkey’s priority in Somalia was to deliver humanitarian aid to those affected by the drought, the worst in East Africa in 60 years. For effective humanitarian aid delivery, road and other infrastructure projects were soon underway in the capital, and the Turkish Embassy in Mogadishu was opened. Turkish governmental and civil society organizations were providing humanitarian and development aid, building schools and providing scholarships to Somali students to study in Turkey. Soon other foreign missions were established, and the city was booming, attracting new businesses and waves of diaspora communities coming back to their home country. Doors for trade between the two countries were opened. Turkish companies began investing in Somalia, and some of them won lucrative deals to manage Mogadishu’s port and airport. Meanwhile, many Somali entrepreneurs have since opened businesses in Turkey, and hundreds of others have made Turkey their preferred destination for higher education and health tourism. Turkey’s efforts in Somalia were seen as a success of its soft power approach there. Both Turkey and Somalia reiterated the importance of shared historical and cultural ties in strengthening their relations and pursuing ways of seeking more cooperation in other domains. The Horn of Africa country became Turkey’s gateway to East Africa and the wider sub-Saharan Africa. Aug. 19, 2021, marks the 10th anniversary of the resumption of relations between Turkey and Somalia. These relations, which have been strengthened and developed in various spheres, are poised to grow deeper looking forward. - Beyond soft power A series of developments at the international, regional and local levels have encouraged both countries to widen their relations beyond humanitarian, development, cultural and trade relations. Following the failed July 15, 2016 coup in Turkey orchestrated by the FETO movement, Turkey sought to cement its presence in the Middle East and Africa, where the terrorist group has been maintaining a strong presence. Regionally, Turkey was wary of the influence of countries like the United Arab Emirates in advancing anti-Turkish interests. Meanwhile, US support in northern Syria for YPG, which is affiliated with the PKK, a terrorist organization that has been responsible for the deaths of thousands of Turkish citizens since the 1980s, signaled to Turkey that it should be more proactive militarily in the region if it is to secure its national interests. Encouraged by its military-technological revolution such as the Bayraktar TB2 unmanned combat aerial vehicle (UCAV), Turkey embarked on its hard power approach as seen in Libya, Syria, and Azerbaijan’s Nagorno-Karabakh region. Keen to secure its strategic interests in Somalia, Turkey built the TURKSOM military academy on the outskirts of Mogadishu to train Somali troops. Internationally, Turkey saw an opportunity in taking advantage of what it perceives as an emerging multi-polar world order which will allow it as a regional power to flex its muscles and to demonstrate its strategic importance. For Somalia, securing and liberating the country from the threat posed by al-Shabaab militants as well as protecting its borders has been a top priority for successive governments. To achieve this, Somalia was in search of a militarily strong ally willing to support it generously. Almost 2,500 Somali soldiers have received training so far at TURKSOM, and Turkey has been generous in donating crucial military equipment to Somalia. So far, Turkish-trained forces have been at the forefront of the fight against al-Shabaab as part of the Somali National Army (SNA) and have been able to liberate new strategic towns such as Janale in the southeastern Lower Shebelle region of Somalia. Moreover, al-Shabaab attacks in the capital Mogadishu have declined. TURKSOM is also important for Somalia as the regional force, the African Union Mission to Somalia (AMISOM), gradually scales down its presence in the country to allow the SNA to take over Somalia’s fight against terrorism. Former US President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw approximately 800 US troops from Somalia in December last year also means that Turkey’s role in rebuilding the SNA is urgent and should be accelerated. - Smart power The aforementioned factors have encouraged Turkey to blend its soft power approach in Somalia and across the region with hard power to secure its national and strategic interests. Joseph Nye, an American political scientist, calls this blending “smart power.” Turkey’s growing smart power approach in Somalia is significant for both sides. For Turkey, it can become a pivotal player in the Horn of Africa region, secure its long-term strategic interests and widen its presence in sub-Saharan Africa. For Somalia, an honest and reliable ally like Turkey that is willing to support it during its most difficult times and to generously share its expertise in the military field is an indispensable gain. Recent developments in Afghanistan should serve as a great lesson for Somalia that international support is unreliable. The US withdrawal from Afghanistan and the Taliban takeover is a testament to Somalia that it cannot afford to rely on AMISOM or US military support. Hence, Turkey’s readiness to provide professional training and equipment to Somali soldiers is the kind of support Somalia needs and its leaders should embrace.
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What do you know about Turkey and NATO?. Despite the alliance everyone is for himself. America is using YPG to destabilize southern Turkey and Turkey knows it. THe good news is Turkey is not an emotional Arab, especially gulf country who act like a jealous woman. Erdogan has an opportunity to stick to despot Sisi of Egypt and back Ethiopia, but they don't work that way. When the TPLF was ousted the UAE rushed head on poured billions of dollars to the Ethiopian bank. They helped Abiy with Drones to decimate TPLF, yet after things changed from the USA side , UAE went home and joined the Egypt/Sudan coalition. They don't have any principle or ideology to stand on. Turkey had good business relations with the TPLF when they ruled Ethiopia, when they were defeated, he stayed in EThiopia and advised Abiy to be moderate in his foreign policy moves. I don't think Turkey will intervene in a domestic civil war in Ethiopia. The best they could do is offer to mediate between the warring factions since Abiy doesn't trust America or Arabs. If it were Turkey, I would wait until the Amhara and Tigray exhausted of the war. At the moment, both of them are blood thirsty. Give them few more weeks or months.
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If these cells are exposed many cities could become safe. Let us take advantage of the support Turkey is giving us.
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Khadaafi, I do appreciate the way you explaining the religious sects part of the country. Usually, you don't see anyone mention the Qadiriya Somali tradition overrun by the gulf money inspired Wahabi sect. The " international Community" planing to stabilize Somalia is just a talking points released for the UN consumption. Just look the facts on the ground. How many real soldiers they have trained for the last 8 to 10 years?. Stabilizing the nation is the work of the Somali leaders and the people. We all have been blaming the leaders. Hassan Sheikh has done some work, but most prominent Somali members of the parliament, government ministers, military commanders, artists including Saado Cali Warsame were killed or bombed in Mogadishu between 2012--2016, many of them in the middle of the street. Tribal militia masquerading as national army will collapse when their clans became opposition to the government or their commanders goes rogue. At the moment, Al-shabaab is a law enforcement issue in Mogadishu. Greedy businessmen are trading the blood of the citizens for many. Here In Mogadishu local clan businessmen are sentenced very light jail terms and could be released after through bribes while foot soldiers are condemned to death. This are pure criminals or mafia making money. Al-shabaab is no longer a religious movement but a criminal entity. THose who killed people in Gaalkacay got paid just $150 dollars per mission.
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Other than Shariif Ahmed, no one within the current government or the previous one ever tried any form of negotiations with Al-shabaab. Taliban and successive Afghan governments had engaged on and of for the last ten years. The Taliban never wavered on their major demand of foreign forces leaving the country. Taliban's strength was their mountaineer fighters and their ability to engage superior forces . While terrorizing and targeting Kabul was constant, they had an standing army fully engaged. Al-shabaab is weak in central Somali and almost doesn't exist in Puntland. In Gaalkacay, for the last ten years, they relied on sleeper cells killing and bombing. That cell was uncovered last year with a great success which almost eliminated them. Also unlike the Afghan army who couldn't engage the Taliban without the Americans, Somali special forces can hold their ground. Yet, I agree with Khadaafi and others that if salaries are not paid coupled with with anti government sentiment in Mogadishu, things could go south quickly. My biggest fear isn't Al-shabaab, but the business community who are mainly Salafi adherents who want to keep the status quo might switch sides and ride the Al-shabaab horse. One major similarity between Kabul and Mogadishu is the elite reside and live within exclusive green zone which makes them different from the local people. While people are partying in these big hotels, the insurgents are just away 30 km. Our hope is that Turkey and others will stand with us. I have no hope of the American military, for the last 8 years they have trained one single battalion called Danab which is under their command. THe Americans turned off the light and left Bagram air base three in the morning without even telling the government. I guess the Afghans are smarter than us. A long war between 300,000 American equipped army and Taliban insurgents could have kept going another 20 years. So, after all, the Afghan army might have made a good decision. When I saw the Taliban march, I was thinking loud of my old dream of marching my army from Balacad to Lowyacado in the name of law and order and restoration. By the way guys, Kabul is more peaceful today than ever. The check points within the city had disappeared and business is good unless you are a female dancer in the red district of Kabul.
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Taliban captures more provincial capitals including Kunduz
galbeedi replied to Che -Guevara's topic in Politics
Most Americans are glad that their sons and druthers will not be dying in a foreign lands after their original mission was accomplished. We all hope the fake CNN and others would stop their drama. No one is going to eat their children or murder girls. This is not 2001. The good news is the Taliban will eradicate the opium growth that is flourishing in Afghanistan today. No more drugs. -
Taliban captures more provincial capitals including Kunduz
galbeedi replied to Che -Guevara's topic in Politics
Typical American alarmist media and their minions. THe Taliban had given blanket amnesty to everyone including military commanders, police chiefs and governors who were at the for front of the war against Taliban. I did talk this morning to two Afghans, one of them has family in Kabul. He said it has been quite and there were no any violence or retribution. If military commanders are save, why would anyone would hurt Afghan interpreters and NGO's who has done nothing serious. This current Taliban is different. Many within the Afghan government had accepted their take over after Ashraf Ghani refused to resign in order the cease fire to take effect. Within days, China and Pakistan would recognize and others will flow it. Of course there is a chance to land the USA and get better a life. If given that chance the whole Kabul city will board the plane and relocate. Al-shbaab doesn't have a porous border and the helping hand of the Pakistani intelligence. Any reasonably organized government could eliminate them easily. Unlike Al-shabaab, the Taliban have 75 members and have been negotiating with the most powerful country in the world face to face. The only people who are disappointed are the pro war factions of America: the neoconservatives and the neoliberal interventionists. Thay have a field day to embarrass president Biden. With TRump leaving just 2500 soldiers, how could Biden stop the Taliban takeover? -
He is losing on media badly. The Amhara no longer have Ethiopian agenda in their hands. Remember, despite Abiy being close to Amhara, they were the ones who tried the first coup in Amhara region. This war will humble Amhara. Abiy should release immediately the Oromo opposition from prison including Jawar Mohamed and Bakale Garba to avoid an Oromo uprising. I also heard Abiy no longer meets envoys from EU and US. He delegated that task to ministerial level.
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President Ashraf Ghani resigns, Taliban enters Kabul peacefully
galbeedi replied to Che -Guevara's topic in Politics
Man, the speed of the Talibs is astonishing. There is no social distancing and masks in Afghanistan. I guess the CNN should address that and force the Taliban to change. -
President Ashraf Ghani resigns, Taliban enters Kabul peacefully
galbeedi replied to Che -Guevara's topic in Politics
Al-Shabab will be contained. Unless the gulf boys bring billions to buy everyone, the chances of Al-shabaab taking over is almost zero. Also, they don't have a Pakistan or China at the border to help. The TPLF used to smuggle weapons to Al-shabaab to prolong the war inside Somalia, and that is gone now. I shouldn't say zero because sometimes an unknown conspiracy could take center stage and change everything. The Taliban sweep isn't only because of their determination, but also behind the scene deals negotiated by many including Americans. Imagine, if Farmaajo wins again and clashes with Amisom and Kenya. Then they suddenly decide to leave without coordination and leave their heavy weapons to Al-shabaab or abandon bases for Al-shbaab and create chaos. THe good thing is Erdogan and Turkey would not allow Somalia to crumble after spending billions. THan God. -
American pilots cannot shoot straight, their politicians are masters in terms of pandering to the next special interest and now their military experts are wrong by a mile----again. The American CIA was wrong about the Soviet Union and they couldn't even predict the coming collapse of the Soviets in 1989. In July, US president said that Kabul will not be another Saigon and Americans will not be airlifted from the Kabul embassy. Poor Joe, he probably based his conclusion by the advice of the American Pentagon. Just this week, the Pentagon said: it will take 90 days for the Taliban to take over of the capital Kabul. Yet, looking how things are unfolding in Afghanistan at the moment, Kabul might fell within the next few days or this coming weekend. That is how wrong the Americans are, by a mile. The Americans were paying 315,000 Afghan security personnel and their associates before the peace deal was signed. There were no credible institutions to manage this over-sized force and bureaucracy. They were probably mercenaries collecting their salary and fighting along with the foreign army. The strange thing is these Talibans may look like turban wearing rural peasants with AK47, but their political and military moves are sophisticated just like any seasoned state diplomats and military strategists. America lost Afghanistan in the spring of 2003, when they abandoned the country to wage an illegal war in Iraq. Before that they controlled 90% of the country and Taliban were reduced to small pockets bordering Pakistan and the north eastern mountains. The neocons threw away every logic and went to Iraq. The rest is history. They are buying local tribes to be neutral, giving amnesty to warlords, commanders and governors without firing a bullet. These could only be achieved also with a lot of money, and experts say that the Taliban is carrying bags of money from the gulf and the Chinese. The latter is doing their dirty work behind the scene and would do anything to damage the ego of the Americans by displaying the image of another Saigon in the roof tops of the American embassy in Kabul. Former president Trump, who measures everything with money and business value, demanded to get the Afghan rare minerals which they deserve because of the blood and treasures they spent. The generals were amused, but the Orange man had a point. The current president of Afghanistan will be airlifted probably next week and the Taliban will have total control soon. Some of us were predicting that the major ethnic groups beside the Pashtuns, like the Tajik, Uzbeks, Turkmen and Hazar's might resist and create long term security issues for the Taliban . Each one of these ethnic groups have bordering nations who share their ethnic group except the Hazara who are majority Shia with close relations with Iran. It seems the Taliban did their homework early and took major border crossing points with these bordering nations. They even said that they will not allow back the Afghan Shia volunteers who went to Syria to fight for Assad. This week Turkey closed their border with Iran to stop the flood of refugees from Afghanistan. Many European and others want Turkey to be the dumping ground of the NATO failure in Afghanistan. Since everyone is resigned to the eventual takeover of the Taliban, the next move would be to demonize them as monsters who want to eat your children. . THis morning I was listening a report from a Kabul based Afghani journalist who describes the horrific events taking place and others that might happen in the future. He said widowed women who lost their husband are afraid that they might be forced to marry Taliban fighters by force and he narrated about 13 years old girl being raped by Taliban and tossed her body to the river. The Taliban are harsh Salafis who are rigid in their interpretations of the faith, and might force women out of public life, but they do not rape women in public or during the war. It is against their tradition and customs. Yet, I don't blame the poor Afghan reporter who is trying to flee and reach better places than Afghanistan like everyone else. The Evil Somali tribes are longing for the return of TPLF . The TPLF and their supporters who supposed to be starving are on the move. According Somali news websites from Hargeisa, Garoowe and Nairobi and some from the diaspora from Djibouti are cheering the false caravan of TPLF who will never reach Addis again. This hope against hope is making many Somalis tribes anxious. On their side, the TPLF is making hit and run and other guerrilla type moves to terrorize communities . A hundred men ,TPLF force, will move pass behind enemy lines and attack some towns far away from the front. Then Panic would ensue catching off guard almost everyone. At the moment, their biggest hope is to reach Samara, the capital of the Afar regional government to control the Djibouti--Ethiopia economic life line and destroy the airport which will be used for drone attacks against them. Another hope is to find other rebel movements to destabilize Ethiopia. Yet, according to people in Ethiopia, the Abiy government will begin their counter attack soon. The Abiy Ahmed government had shown the world that the starving Tigrayans , especially the TPLF is war mongering and hell bent to destabilize Ethiopia. In 1991, the TPLF captured Addis with help of the superior Eritrean Liberation Front, the Oromo Liberation Front and even some Amhara who were willing for change. This time the land locked TPLF are playing with fire with hope of internal Ethiopian collapse or the helping hand of foreign nations. If this thing drags even another few months, the TPLF and Tigray itself might not survive the onslaught of the coming march of million Ethiopian army. At the moment, the Ethiopian army might not be well trained, but certainly they could overwhelm the tiny landlocked Tigray and their tough rebels. Dhag Dheer Dhimatoo Dhulkii Waa Nabad. I have bad news for the Geel Jire tribes cheering for their former landlords. The TPLF will never come back again to rule. Despite few Oromo disgruntled fighters of the animist Jaal Maro, the TPLF have difficulty even holding to their homeland let alone conquer others. Even their strategy is apparent to anyone who knows anything about military. They attacking in order to defend and slow down the wave. THE ONLF . There are rumors among Ethiopians that the Somali movement of ONLF might join the war to help their former abusers. We were expecting the Somalis in Jigjiga to join hands including the opposition, and demand more autonomy by helping defend Ethiopia against the highlanders. Yet, the ONLF which had extensive connections with foreign intelligence could be persuaded to open another front against the government to help the TPLF. If the ONLF does anything to undermine the current government to help the TPLF, they will be crushed for good. Mustafe Cagjar will fbe orced to crush them before Ethiopia intervenes. Beware of your choices. Counterfeit money and Drugs in Djibouti. In August 5 2021, president Omar Geelle was summoned to the African command center in Djibouti. Sources say he went there around 10:00 AM in the morning and left 2:00 PM. He was questioned by the FBI and the American secret service who are usually involved anything that has to do with counterfeit of the American dollar. According to the sources, the FBI and US DEA ( Drug enforcement Agency) were investigating a drug and prostitution rings operated the son in law of Omar Geele who is an Ivorian national. He uses his two private jets to transport drugs using Djiboutian diplomatic passports. Last year he was arrested in South Africa, and was released on bail. Somehow, the case in South Africa didn't proceed and the man changed the logo of the airlines and re branded his company. This reminds of the Somali leaders called in Halane. All that drug thing is not new in Djibouti. Omar Geele and friends used to export alcohol to Saudi Arabia in the eighties and nineties. Also, money laundering and illegal offshore banks were available in Djibouti for a long time. When you look Djibouti business district, it is a very small area of less than few kilometres squares. Other than Ethiopian trade, the only major groups that use the port are supply for the foreign troops. Yet, Djibouti city has 12 foreign owned banks that operate in this tiny market. Very few Somali Djiboutians borrow money from these banks. In fact, if you walk in Djibouti around the port or even some isolated are you will find huge villas with big billboard signs on the roof and big embassy style gates. No one knows what they do. To borrow money you must be connected to the ruling family. Osman Arab Geele, the man who set up the Coca-Cola plant in Hargeisa was among those who borrowed $20 million and disappeared.He was helped by the late governor of the central bank of Djibouti Mr. Hayd who is the brother of the Omar Geele wife. Some of you might remember few years ago when Muuse Biixi tried to arrest him and extradite to Djibouti. Because of the fixed rate of the American dollar exchange, it will be easy to transfer dollars from Djibouti to outside world using these banks. Two Somali owned banks, Dahabshiil and Salaama bank are under investigation as we speak. This new case is involved a former foreign minister who is also the second cousin of the wife of the president. Mr. Mohamed Abdi , who is the secretary general of the ruling party the RPP, has exchanged 200 million Djibouti Francs to 1.2 million American dollars and then allegedly mixed with another $1 million American counterfeit money and transferred to a foreign bank. The Americans were notified by the foreign banks and came to Djibouti to investigate. I know Omar Geele is involved a lot these days. His people have even opened business in Mogadishu. I have seen a local guy almost zero income fly to Asia and set up shop in Mogadishu. When I inquired how this guy rose from being a working-class fellow to a multimillion-dollar company, they said he got over a million-dollar investment from his ruling clan and be part of ears and eyes of Omar Geele in Mogadishu. This will be the worst election ever in Mogadishu. The genius Ahmed Madoobe led the way and others have followed. In Kismaayo the would-be candidates had chosen their drivers, secretaries and cousins to run against them. The mistrust between the those who supposed to vote and select the chosen candidate was so huge most of the would-be challengers didn't even contest. While Madoobe set the tone for the games of the selection, it was C/laahi Deni of Puntland who became the ugliest among those selecting. He chose couple of men who were in their eighties. One, Mr. Gaagaab from MUdug, couldn't even find a fake candidate to make him the best man. The woman who was his challenger could not even read the prepared statement. The next Somali senate will be dominated by old men in their eighties. Abdi Hashi, the septuagenarian from Hargeisa had shown his early dementia, he could no longer distinguish 1991 from 2020. Faroole isn't leaving us yet, so does Muuse Suudi and even Ahmed Xaaf might join the old men who never go. It is getting ugly. By the way, these were the men who were complaining about the process and deadlocked the country for months. Dhiisi baad moodaa Markuu Afka kuu soo dhaweynaye dhab kama ahee waa dhuuni raadcaysiye Dhuunta bir laga geli Muxuu nooga dhiman waayeey. Dhuunta Bir laga geli odayaashani maxay nooga dhiman waayeen.
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They are both correct in a way. The government business should continue as usual, but at this stage, no one has a mandate to sign major life changing agreements with a foreign government. Isn't the opposition that said no legislation should be passed or implemented during the transition to the election. At the end this system must be changed to a better presidential system. Last week in Tunisia, the president and the prime minister quarreled who should be in charge of none military security agencies. Furthermore, a caretaker prime minister should thread carefully. Personally, I don't believe Farmaajo and Rooble are adaversaries. They are allies. Ina Rooble haduu buuqa badiyo ha ogaado in aanu soo noqonayn haaddi Farmaajo guulaysto.
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America is allying itself with none state actors in the middle east and now in the horn of Africa. Few years during the ISIS crisis in Syria , Turkey offered to clear the terrorist group from their capital Raqqa. Turkey, the second largest army of NATO after the USA had both the capability and the state legitimacy to destroy ISIS and help the rest of the Syrians who were opposed the bloody Assad regime. Yet, America chose a Kurdish separatists within Syria who are allied with the PKK, a terrorist group that had killed thousands of Turkish civilians for the last 40 years.This America action has created mistrust among the NATO allies. In LIbya, America watched from the sidelines or indirectly supported the the Libyan wannabe dictator Khalifa Hifter. It seems the US foreign policy is either misguided, wrong or too little too late. As we speak, they sold Afghanistan to the Taliban rebels, and in order to stop them after the fact, they are sending B-52 bombers who could only destroy towns, villages and create huge collateral damage. They could have negotiated a Taliban led or shared government before withdrawing. Now in Ethiopia, they are allying themselves with the TPLF Junta who claim to be starving just weeks ago while a week after they started invading other region like the Afar and killing hundreds of civilians. If Americans think that the hated TPLF will rule Ethiopia again they are misguided. Regime changes take place when leaders over stay their time like Omar Geele or hated by the people like most ARab leaders. That is not the case in Ethiopia. We have all seen the American moves with the money bag carrying woman Samantha Powers throwing cash to the Sudanese to help them put pressure to Ethiopia. History has shown that the Sudanese, just like the Amhara are not good at fighting. There are consensus in America that weakening or targeting for regime change in Eritrea could directly increase the chances of TPLF survival and diminish the power of the Ethiopian prime minister. Thus, they have assembled the Eritrean opposition and their forces in Sudan. We have seen aid agencies provide satellite phones to Getachaw Reda and other TPLF leaders. The JUnta are guided by foreign agents and others in their quest to terrorize towns. In order to reverse this Ethiopia had restricted the entry of foreign national to the country, they closed or in the process of reducing foreign diplomats. Arriving visitors who used to get their entry visa at airports are required to obtain from the Ethiopian embassy before traveling. No one knows if these moves are intended to block the entry of regime change saboteurs in Ethiopia or isolating themselves from the world. Negotiations are underway between Ethiopia and the Americans, as Abiy refused to meet the money lady last week. At the moment Abiy Ahmed is isolated, but many nations around the world have realized the folly of the American policy to give huge territory to a rebel group and allow them to destabilize the rest of the country. Despite their appetite of policing the world, America doesn't have the same power of getting their way anymore. Thanks to the internet, millions of Ethiopians have rejected the American destabilizing actions and are marching and supporting their government. As the anchor country in the horn, the collapse of Ethiopia will affect greatly both Somalia, Kenya and Djibouti. If Ethiopia survives this American regime change history will not forget this American folly. TPLF rebels pose major threat to Ethiopia if allowed to continue SABAHDAI.LY Contrary to the Ethiopian government’s peace overtures and positive actions, remnants of the TPLF failed to assume equal responsibility to avert a...
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Next Phase of Ethiopia's Civil War: Tigray vs Amhara
galbeedi replied to Che -Guevara's topic in Politics
No one is dying for Amhara. 50 TPLF forces usually come close to Amhara towns spray bullets and everyone flees including Amhara special forces. Most of us do not mind the weakening of the Amhara who by now are just one of the 10 Ethiopian regions. THe old perception that Amhara means Ethiopia is over. Let the highlander clash to make Ethiopia safe for our Oromo friends to rule Ethiopia for a long time. The Ethiopian army doesn't have officers trained for command, control and communication among units. 80% of the trained officers were Tigray. There were some Shawan Oromo who were promoted by the TPLF, but those guys either left the country or are too rich to die for their country. Samara, the Afar capital will host Ethiopian army drones to crush the TPLF. It was one of the main reasons the TPLF went to attach Afar region including to occupy the Djibouti-Ethiopia highway. -
President Laftagareen delivered for his friend.
galbeedi replied to Che -Guevara's topic in Politics
The latest news is C/rahman Shakuur, Khayre and even Shariif Ahmed are vying to be members of parliament. Shariif might want to be in the chamber just in case if he loses. That tells you something. -
Well, this is the typical northern talking point about the union and the so called 'If". Yet, here were are not debating 1988 or even 1980, but 20 years earlier in the summer of 1967 . At the time Somalinimo and Somali nationalism was in its height. Getting back NFD was active, before the Arusha accord was signed , we had minor war with emperor Heile Salasie in 1964 , and Djiboutians were encouraged to get rid of the French rule. So, There were no apparent Somali failure then. That decision was made by the precolonial tribes and the Afar who feared the Somali domination. Even today, after 45 years, Djibouti has 60% unemployed population with highest cost of living in the world. Djiboutians could be in heaven on earth today if they get a cheap electricity in 50 degree heat and basic water. The whole nation serves less than 300 families. One might be even nostalgic of the French era were inflation was less than 1% a year. You might say their decision in 1977 to be a sovereign was fine , but the decision was made earlier when Somalia was democratic and goal oriented.
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Faisal Roobe exposed himself and fired his gun without even checking the facts. I want to say few things about the CJ chain of restaurant owners. I have friends with some of the family who own them, and I was in Kampala few years ago as a guest. In Uganda , they are called Javax Cafe dominating the high end food business in the city. They have been in the business for 40 years starting from zero , and I can tell you that they are not the kind of people who will throw away $10,000 let alone a quarter a million. When you earn your money legally and through hard work every penny has a value. Mr. Rooble went to a law blow by smearing an honest family who has nothing to do with the corrupt KIsmaayo selection. Furthermore, every Cali and Omar from the greedy D block believes that they have a place and seat in Jubbaland which unacceptable in the real world. Faisal Rooble clan doesn't have enough number to elect a city council in Jubbaland let alone a senator, yet they have been rewarded with that seat thanks to the campaign Faisal Rooble waged for Ahmed Madoobe. When that seat went to someone else this time around he is crying like a baby. And one more thing, the other Mr No Cabdi Ismaciil Samatar is seeking a seat at the senate while being carried by Oday Cabdi Haashi. The problem is he won't getting any seat from us Awdaltes. Let Candi Hashi give him one of the seats from west Hargeisa.
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They can have a regional bank for investment to give loans to companies and finance regional development projects. The regional government might give money to the bank and ask him to manage and few other things. Yet, the idea of regional bank managing currency and the markets has nothing to do with a regional administration. Puntland probably knows how the world works, although these fools might not consult their own experts. So, in my in my opinion, these boys have some future ideas for this bank. First, they might have no hope for the future functioning Somali government and as usual might continue their old ways of printing money, or as many suspect, they might bad ideas that I do not want to say here yet.
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