For our grand fathers, it was just yesterday. I did listen to the great Somali composer and playwright Hassan Sheikh Muumin narrating how his father, as a young kid left Harar with his family after Menelik too over in 1887 and settled Zaylac where he was born. Waxa uu odhan jiray laba xadaaradood ayaa iska kay dhalay, Aabahayba Harar buu ku dhashay Hooyadeyna Zaylac. Che, you raise good points, it either Yugoslavia or unhappy marriage like Bosnia. Either way you need allies.

Off course, if we keep acting like ugly nomad rebel without a right cause, you create enemies. We shouldn't refuse to be ruled by Affar brothers whom we share culture, custom and tradition. We have been ruled by Amhara, Tigray and other evil Ethiopians like the Derg, why refuse to co-exist with an Affar brother?

Che, Mille is the main highway juncture from Djibouti to Addis and western and northern Ethiopia. Controlling that town means cutting the lifeline of Ethiopia especially northwest. This Affar nomads are making history. They are our brothers , and we Somalis should make them our allies, instead of fighting against for two dusty villages in Siti. This Affars are going places. will see what happens.

They don't want to talk about trade and peace among the region. THey want the war on terror in Somalia inflamed by Ethiopia. They want Abiy to send soldiers and talk about the danger Somali might cause to the region. Abiy want to change the channel. Uganda is the the base of the war on terror empire now. Their dictator is his 34th year with no questions asked. If TPLF loses America will leave the horn for good.

If you are seeking news of what is going on in Ethiopia, don;t waste your time on Somali nomad whether he is from Somali Galbeed or the republic. He will not tell you what is possible or what could happen, but how tghis war in Ethiopia would affect his horse in the Mogadishu contest. Some us had made our mind and desire the victory of Abiy Ahmed for many different reasons. That is why I always seek to talk to Ethiopians , especially those who have cultural and tradition affinity to us like the Harrari community, who have long rich history of culture, language and trade skills . They are similar to our cultured and trades people of Banaadir who lived in the capital for a thousand years. Just like the Banaadiris, they don't brag. Despite their Small numbers they are very visible in any major cities of Ethiopia because of their trade. He is a former intelligenc member under Meles who left Ethiopia dozen or so years ago. While we were discussing the current Ethiopian conflict, he assured me that unlike 1991, there won't be any public uprising, famine or agitating public for change. In fact, he compared the TPLF JUnta , pushed by the USA, as Abdulfatah Sisi army trying to crush the people and take over of a public that is backing the elected government of Mursi. He said the American diplomats are witnessing a million people march in maskel square almost every few weeks. I asked him, what is the man goal of the TPLF at the moment? He said, " The TPLF doesn't have the man power, military hardware or logistics to enter Addis. THey were relying on chaos theory of certain Oromo groups, and others to start shooting within the capital coupled with media campaign to panic everyone. That had failed. Yet, I don't believe that the TPLF is seeking to enter Addis or rule Ethiopia. THeir campaign is to destroy military infrastructure, demoralize the Ethiopian army and at the end control Tigray without fear of any invasion from Ethiopia. In fact, at the moment every Amhara and Oromo will tel you that they would prefer Ethiopia without Tigray. They even changed the name and use a pejorative word " Chigray" which in Amharic translates " Problem". So, despite the huge causality and suffering, the Tigray region will be independent by default, and no Ethiopia state would dare to force them back. They have their future in their hands, and while these offensive is intended to trigger the departure of Abiy, their main goal is deffensive to secure all of their boundaries. Galbeedi: Tigray are united 100% at the moment, right.? Harreri man: Yes. There is no more TPLF. They are called TIgray Defense Forces (TDF). For them it is survival or be enslaved by Amhara. Remember this group of people who live in Axum and northern Ethiopia are very unique and historical people. In our Seera of the Prophet ( Salalaahu Calayhi Wasalam) , we learned that our Prophet SCW, was born in the year of the elephant ( Aamul fiil) when, Abyssinian/Yemenis or people from that area invaded southern Arabia, passed Yemen and wanted to conquer the Kabb'a in Makkah. THe Qur'aan narrates in Suuratul Fiil how Allah sent birds with hot stones and defeated them before they reach the Kan'a. So, we are talking about people of unique strange pole of gene. Deep down every Tigrangha believes he could defeat the Amhara any day, it is a very strange ego that is ingrained in each Tigranga. G: Yet, they can't continue this war against 100 million Ethiopians in eight regions, that will be a suicide. HM; If you have seen their published secret plan obtained by the Ethiopian government, their plan was to spread chaos in every region and ethnic group through old contacts, arms smuggling, bribes and other forms. THey wanted to ride others, weaken the moral of other ethnics who are themselves victims and oppressed by successive Ethiopian regimes and became the key for disintegration.. So far, other than OLA Shehe, no one is joining. THe Affar were created and nurtured by the TPLF for a long time , but the current leadership is at the forefront of the fighting, Somalis are watching, and others in southern states are in a shock, and are just flowing the orders of the PP leadership. The Amhara are united in their fight to defeat the TPLF, but at the moment, the Amhara militia has only light weapons, and there is fear that if heavy weapons are given to the militia it might back fire in the long run. The Amhara has the numbers to make the Tigray pay heavy price for if the war continues for a long time. G; What is next for them? HM: if there is no significant military gains from the OLA for the next few weeks, they have no choice but to retreat to defensive positions in their region and negotiate. G; How about Abiy, what is his next move. HM: The man has to come down from his horse and deal with internal Ethiopia issues before he embarks larger regional issues. He is badly wounded, but he has huge support in Ethiopia at the moment. Everyone assumed that Abiy will be rulling Ethiopia for the next decade, but I don't think he might not finish his term. As soon as the tigray issues settles down and opposition groups come out of the jail, they will demand new elections, mobolize their people and make him one term leader who almost destroyed Ethiopia. G; His regional integration idea is popular among the horn, who is opposed? HM: The regional integration on trade and transportation is badly needed. there is almost nothing from Ethiopia to Somalia, from Somalia to Kenya abd vice versa, there is nothing. You are talking about 200 million people devastated by conflict for 40 years. You need $50 billion worth of infrastructure to move goods and people. So, Ethiopia has to decide if it wants these to be done through America led Build Back Better or by the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) of China. G; No one can deny the man has vision for the region. HM: Yes. His move to discard the long held Somali issues and force quck unity with Somaliland, Eritrea and others has shaken up the old held theary of the horn being unstable war ravaged area that has to be managed in terms of security and humantarian aide. He thinks, the problem of the region is lack opportunity, trades and isolation from one another. But before he move to his vision , must fix his country. G. If Abiy couldn't hold raines for too long and change is needed, who should be the next leader. HM: The next in line Demake Mekonen, the deputy premier who is Amhara. But looking the current ethnic problems, an Amhara leader will have difficulty, although being a Muslim Amhara might give some currency among Afar, Somali and others. But, I do believe that the next leader of Ethiopia should be either Somali or Afar Ethiopian. Remember , credit should be given to late general Mohamed S. Barre who crushed the Lions of Africa in 1977. He destroyed the most powerful army of Africa and took over Jigjiga, Dire Dhawa, Godey before the Warsaw pact led by Russia, coupled with Cuba, Libya and Yemen came to rescue the Ethiopia on Mengistu. Today, Somalis have the second largest land mass of Ethiopia bordering the Somali republic and Djibouti where most of the trade routes with oil and, livestock go through. Since the Ethiopia of old Abyysinia is over with the demise of the Tigray, a new Ethiopia has to be formed with others being in charge. THe Oromo were in charge under Abiy and it seems things didn't workout as wes supposed, so it is time for chage. G: before the Somalis become in charge of Ethiopia, they must show ambition, and trigger causes that make them indispensable. HM: They can show resolve, demand more autonomy, confederation and other causes which are just short of seperation. They can even demand independence unless a new Ethiopia is formed. WE have seen Oromo, Tigray and now Oromo. The Affar has shown more resolve to preserve Ethiopia just like the Amhara and others and could be ahead of the Somalis to be prime minister despite their small population. Somalis had paid a high price in terms of changing Abyysinia including the disintegration of the powerful state of Somalia. Folks that was the conversation. I may add that despite the loss of the republic and the formation enclaves for consolation, the next decade could be the Somali decade if we get the right leaders. It was the Somali artists who said, " Jabhada Galbeed iyo Somali Abow guusha way heli". wE dis fine until the evil alphabet nomad rebel went to Mengistu and stabbed as from the back. Somali regional state leader MUstafe Cagjar is speaking like a leader today. He said, " We are not waiting the TPLF to come to Addis, get the Tanks, assemble the airplanes and fight us here in Jigjjiga" Hadday Addis imaanayaan nagama Xoog roone anaguna Addis ayyaan tagaynaa". That is the sprit. Radio Mogadishu did broadcast the first Oromo language programing in historyin 1977.

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Joint Council Of 12 Political Parties In Oromia Pledges Support To The Fight Against TPLF, Shene. On Nov 6, 2021 2 Addis Ababa November 6, 2021 (FBC) – The joint council of 12 political parties operating in Oromia Regional State has pledged full support to the effort of the government to wipe out the terrorist groups TPLF and Shene. Leaders of the competing political parties said in their joint press briefing that there is no “negotiable sovereignty and a country for sale.” According to ENA, the leaders also strongly opposed the shameful and destructive stand of TPLF and Shene to undermine the integrity of Ethiopia. The alliance of the two terrorist groups to commit evil acts demonstrates that they care less for the people, the leaders noted. The leaders, who noted the attrocities and crimes commited by the terrorist groups in Amhara and Afar regional states, described the acts as genocide. They also point out that killing innocent people, raping women, looting and destroying property are the true nature of terrorists. Describing Shene, the Trojan Horse of the terrorist TPLF, they said it has attacked civilians in Wollega and Guji zones of Oromia region by taking orders from Mekelle. Shene also killed and displaced many innocent people, looted properties. In order to eliminate the evil and destructive activities of the terrorist groups, the leaders reaffirmed their commitment to support the efforts of the government and the people even at the cost of their lives. They further pledged their readiness to contribute to security operations until the terrorist groups are eliminated and also called on the people to strengthen their active participation to reverse the destructive activities of the terrorist groups. The leader finally called on the international community to condemn the terrorist groups that have been causing tremendous sufferings to the Ethiopian people.

Among those groups that convened in Washington yesterday, the man who signed for Somali State resistance is no other than Dr. Mohamuud Ugaas, member of the ONLF executive council. It is not a bad idea for Somalis to be among every group just in case the shit its the fan. Furthermore, the Somali ONLF has a deep connection with the CIA thanks to the operation they conducted in the attack of Malaysian/Chinese companies exploring gas in the Somali region in 2007/2008

American tactics are known by now to everyone. The day Mr. Feltman flew to Addis , they have convened a fake rebel group in Washington. The stick will not work, but we want to know that carrot the envoy was carrying to Abiy.

Che, Abiy waxa uu leeyahay Ethiopia Iga dambeyn mayso. The guy has recruited a million army and landlocked Tigray can't over last them. He has to worry more about Oromo joining the fray. I heard that Jawar Mohamed refused to be given clemency and released. If Oromo stays in the sidelines, Abiy will syrvive. I will put my weger that the TPLF is mostly media campign and it can't survive few more months with casualty they are suffering. Despite the blockade they were getting 1000 trucks of aid per month including fuel shipments. No wonder why everyone is crying for food delivery. It is a lifeline for rebels to get supplies. How come a five million people with all the resource of Ethiopia under their roof need two thousand trucks per month? they must be very special people . People starving now in Jubbaland and Southwest and other parts of the continent, but Tigray is the golden calf I guess. I don't believe that America has a lot to offer to Ethiopia this time around. They have used every sanction and threat in the books with zero results. Abiy had met the US envoy and nothing tangible had come out so far. And those who made the Washington conference yesterday were mostly Tigray opposition coupled with few Uber drivers from DC area. In fact, yesterday morning I texted a friend of mine in Washington and told him to call himself the Somali confederate front and get a seat at the table and report back to us. By the way, the Ethiopian diaspora had already defeated a democratic party candidate for Virginia governor already and might do more damage in Maryland senate, Virginia senate next election in 2022.

The propaganda war in this conflict is much bigger than the bullets. The TPLF is almost 400 kilometres away from the capital and are also facing constant clashes even in the outscores of Dessie. They captured Dessie through deception. As 15% of the residents are Tigray community members , they inflterated within and many Tigray rebels put on Ethiopian army uniforms and pretended to be reinforcements from Ethiopian defense forces. It was too late to react for the ENDF. Then comes the CNN and State Department asking the TPLF ," do not enter Addis" campaign and the panic flowed. Then they moved quickly to Komolcha which is just 12 miles south of Dessie and declared through their western media propaganda that they are on their way to Addis. According to people at the front, the TPLF had suffered huge causality in Wello before their suicide mission which produced some good results. As we speak the ENDF are moving to the town of Waldiya which is north of DEssie close to the Tigray border, the Affar are moving from the east, and if the TPLF with the help of OLA, doesn't move quickly and create more panic through the Oromia surrounding Addis, they will be encircled and decimated. THey are stretched and far away from their base. The TPLF is desperate and needs propaganda to change things quickly in their favor. America is trying to give them hand through satellite feed and media cover, but that doesn't translate victory. THey are the target of every Amhara and others from the north including the farmers who are armed. THe era of an armed rebel with AK 47 walking through farms in peace is over. Addis Ababa is 75% Amhara and Guraghe and with Abiy arming everyone the chances of ruling the city is slim.

It is true all foreign community members and dual citizens are leaving in droves thanks to the media saying the TPLF is on the verge of taking over the capital. I had talked to a family member this morning in Addis and he said life is normal in the city except businesses are closing early evening. Things will be clear within the next seven or ten days.

Flowing the logic Somalis had applied according to the 4.5 formula, both local selection and parliament membership is based on traditional local clan residence. Unless one person one vote takes place, only traditional clans can be appointed in local councils and parliament membership. Yet, in Baraawe case, Laftagareen is taking the hard line on the local councils. the Baraawe of 2021 is definitely different than the one of 1990, because the super majority of the city are probably not native Barawaani.

Also, the western media is depicting the TPLF like a popular uprising of citizens trying to overthrow a dictator which is far from the truth.. Putting a siege to the national capital might have worked in the eighties, but now, every ethnic group has its own capital, flag and special forces. It is how Meles designed both Somalia and Ethiopia before he went six feet under.

Duufaan, all above mentioned statements from Micheal Rubin and company are pure information warfare. The TPLF are now in one pocket or narrow corridor from southern Tigray to Amhara region. Even western Tigray(Humera) is still in the hands or Amhara and Eritrean forces manning the Sudan border. Western Amhara, Gojjam and Gondar are still in Amhara hands. I do believe that despite the setbacks, this war will rage for a long time and might even spread across Ethiopia. Abiy Ahmed had met the Oromo AbaGadda which is equivalent of Somali Suldans and Ugasses. He told them that it is easy for him to disappear, but if the TPLF comes the Oromo will face internal chaos and oppression for another 100 years. The people of northern Shawa just north of Addis have been armed to the teeth. If Abiy keeps arming the citizens, there will not be Ethiopia after him. Yet, according to insiders, the ruling class in Addis worries more about the Oromo joining the opposition than the TPLF. Abiy is painted by many Oromo as Amhara clone claiming to be Oromo. Yesterday I went one of my local bakeries and the two Oromo ladies working there were somewhat happy about the current events. They are from Arsi area and rooting for the demise of Abiy. Unverified reports claim that Abiy has refused to meet Jeffery Feltman, the US envoy for the horn. If this report is true, it is do or die for Abiy. Furthermore, where are the Turks? They saved Libya almost overrun by the despot Khalifa Hifter a year and half ago. Hifter Russian mercenaries and other were 7 kilometer from down town Tripoli, yet the careful intelligence and drone operations of the Turks reversed to keep the UN recognized government. If Erdogan helps Abiy, he is helping an elected premier of Ethiopia challenged by Tigray despots aided by American neocons who keep destabilizing the horn for the last 30 years. Many Ethiopian regions including Sidamo, Beni Shangul, Somalis and others are rooting the demise of the old empire. They know deep down even if Ethiopia survives this war, it will not be able to oppress or control these nationes anymore.

our enemies are collapsing , yet we can't form a decent government thanks to the Mogadishu quagmire.

They are just releasing the same generic orders that the Oromia regional government and others had implemented. It basically says: arrest and subdue those who are sympathizers of the TPLF. This could had made sense six months ago, not today. He doesn't have any creativity or imagination to alter things. Ahmara are dead TPLF are weak and Oromia is waiting in the wings. What is your plan. A friend who dislikes Ina Cagjar said he would probably go back to a Hargeisa district called F where he grew up Waar Soomaalida wax gradka ah iskugu yeedh oo talo la yimaada. Who would have thought a decimated TPLF hiding in the mountains would be threatening Addis?

If Cagjar takes steps to safeguard the Somali state from Oromia regions and others, and takes emergency measures by claiming to save Somali Galbeed from the coming chaos, neither Abiy nor Ethiopia could force him or remove from power. Unlike Cabdi Illey, he is elected through the PP party and can't be ordered from Addis. He could desolve his party and create national unity government and demand a new Ethiopia without declaring independence. THe worst thing to do just wait for the winners and be a lame duck. Things are changing very quickly, as you guys had mentions, Cumbolcha is the main intersection of the railway and highway from Djibouti to Addia, Bahar Dar and Tigray. The Ethiopian army is in a panic, they are leaving equipment for the TPLF. THe rebels might move to the capital by this weekend. THe Oromo has hundreds of thousands of special forces and it will be difficult for TPLF to subdue. History could be repeating itself. Just like 1991, The Americans could force the TPLF to hold off their assault on the capital and intervene to create a transitional government led by one of the three Oromo leaders who are in prison or house arrest: Jawar who has the largest support among the Oromo, Bakale Garba as a senior leader or even Lemma Magrasa. Tigray will be happy with Ethiopia where the Amhara are irrelevant. The TPLF might borrow a page from Eritrea who first made sure the junior cousins take power in Addis and then force a referendum. The Oromo might allow the Tigray to leave Ethiopia eventually. Che, as you mentioned if chaos comes, the threat to Somalis would come from the Oromo separatists. It is depressing that that those in Jigjiga are doing nothing but to wait the uncle that marries their mother.

Che, This Jaal Maaro is a primitive paramilitary who moves around when he sees an empty village or town. When the federal army moves in he abandons his position quickly. Every time we hear the TPLF is on the move this fellow claims to have cut the road to Addis.He could have isolated Addis long ago, but he isn't the original OLF that we have known to have some ideology or principle. He is probably a useful idiot that will be used by the TPLF to conquer the Oromo. The lazy Amhara had refused to die for their land and will be irrelevant for the future of Ethiopia. As I said, if Abiy doesn't reverse this defeat quickly, he might even flee from Addis before the end of the year. Having said that, for the TPLF to rule Ethiopia again or become junior partners with Oromo they must subdue the Oromo heartland and Somali Galbeed. THese two groups must get ready and fight the TPLF when they enter the Oromo heartland outside Finfine. If trhe Oromo want to rule Ethiopia for the next decade , they shouldn't allow any TPLF soldier to enter their soil. Keep the war in the north. THe Abyssinian highlanders , despite their deep hatred could make up and kiss in order to rule again the Oromo and others. The TPLF prefer to secede from Ethiopia eventually, but big powers will not allow at the moment until they achieve their desired outcome. Despite all the unexpected opportunity for Somalis, the current leader in Jigjiga, Ina Cagjar, isn't looking beyond Dessie in the Amhara region and northern Ethiopia. He could mobilize and train 25,000 Somali special forces if things get ugly and protracted war rages around Addis for months. Despite having Ogaden Liberation Front, the OG community had a history of allying with the colonial powers in order to gain few Shakels from Menelik, Haile Salasie and TPLF. Cagjar has opportunity to create a free Somali state, yet judging by his rhetoric he is concentrating to save the current regime than thinking of plan B. I am one of those who wish the survivsal of Abiy Ahmed, but if his people can't defend themselves from a landlocked rag time Tigray, then let the chips fall where they may.

Well Mr. Arafaat had nailed it. This is the first lesson that must be learned from this election. Reduce the councilmen to three for a town of that size. 27 kulahaa, meeshu ma baarlamaanbaa.

This must be a lesson for every illegitimate group trying to size power. The Hir-Shabeelle leader Mr. Guudlaawe should take a copy from Guriceel lesson and defeat the fake colonel called Sanay and enter Beledweyne with full force.

If the TPLF takes over Dessie, Wallo one of the largest cities of Amhara region, then that is a game changer. If the Ethiopian federal forces don't reverse this defeat or set back quickly, the Abiy regime is in danger. A Hareri friend of mine says that thew TPLF is awash with millions of American dollar bills and they are distributing the cash to Oromo and Amhara officers to abandon their positions. Also, refugee camps had been set up to welcome fleeing Ethiopian soldiers in Sudan , Djibouti all the way to Somaliland. Something fishy is going on here. The Abyssinian side of Ethiopia is burning while the rest of the other seven ethnic regions from Beni Shangul, Sidamo, Somali, Gambella, Oromia and Afar are relatively save. America had set up its shop in Sudan to finance the rebel Tigray movement to unseat Abiy Ahmed .The target is Eritrea and Amhara. If these two are subdued, the TPLF will partner with Oromo and rule the horn of Africa again. The Sudanese coup might change the equation of the war. The overthrow of the western educated technocrat prime minister of Sudan Mr. Hamdok who spread headed financial reform and the lifting of sanctions from Sudan could create serious disagreements with America and other western democracies. Despite millions of aid poured by the USA, Sudan is facing extreme economic hardship. It is too early to asses the intentions of general Al Burhan. He is either changing directions or he just shuffling the chairs in the deck of the soon sinking ship.

Che, I have been hearing this false colonel called Sanay since last year, but I never even tried to understand what he is after. It is probably another, ' Ku qabso ku qadi mayside'

If they hold elections just for the sake of getting some money from the donors like Somaliland, then they are doomed. Rather than 'Gole Deegaan' which in turn selects the mayor, they should demarcate wards and neighborhood first and elect the mayor directly. We will be watching whether Puntland intends to give the people voice or window dressing .

A frozen conflict is a situation in which active armed conflict has been brought to an end, but no peace treaty or other political framework resolves the conflict to the satisfaction of the combatants. In other words the are no bullets flying at the moment, but a false sense of peace have been established among the groups. In fact, frozen conflict became the geopolitical strategy of the great powers for the last dozen years. Nations are dismembered, weakened and denied full sovereignty and territorial integrity which was the foundations of the nation states under United Nations guarantee.Foreign powers even encourage these frozen conflicts from Ukraine, Syria, Libya, Somalia and Yemen. Somalia is not new to these phenomenon of conflict ending without resolutions. It started in 1991 between Aideed and Ali Mahdi which divided the national capital without resolutions.The separatists in the north flowed with emotions to preempt the transitional government formed in Mogadishu without their input. They didn't expect much , but the long frozen conflict of the south played to their advantage. Now in 2021, the EhluSunnah anarchist aided by a Ahmed Fiqi, a mole inside Galmudug government, are trying to create a frozen conflict in Galmudug to curve out some land in Galgaduud. In fact, Galmudug politicians and business people have shown once again to be the principle leaders of the anarchist movements in Somalia whether it is in Mogadishu or central Somalia. Thus, Galmudug leader Mr. Qoor Qoor must crush this criminal movement for the well being of his region and for future Somali stability. THere are no political or practical reasons for Ahlu Sunnah to exist in central Somalia after the foundations of Galmudug. The same instigators of this mess are now calling for peace and negotiations. Since when is an illegal criminal entity has to be given legitimacy after storming peaceful regions? That hungry kid, the prime minister, had finally got his cool hand shake that he has been seeking for months. His old sponsor, Mr Fahad Yasiin had sent him to the Doha bank and he came back smiling. Finally, some somnolence of peace has been reached to hold the election.I think Mr. Qoor Qoor should finish this job of eliminating the false Ulema, embarrass the sponsors, Fiqi, Dani, Hassan Sheikh and others. Anything else would be prolonging the misery and create another frozen conflict in central Somalia.