The fake Sheikh of UAE had finally came to his senses. That pirate nation had sawed so many troubles in the region for the last ten years. They will probably leave Libya alone now. The tyrant Hifter will not survive without the gulf money bags. Furthermore, they won't be spending any money in the upcoming election in Somalia.

Next few weeks are crucial. THe TPLF couldn't capture Mille, in fact, the Affar forces are in another town called Ayet which is 50 km from Mille . If the Affar can do so does the Amhara. Yesterday an Affar fighter said most the TDF fighters they killed in these battles were 13-16 years old kids. THe TPLF is deploying child soldiers. The biggest surprise of this war the so called OLA are just couple of hundred misfits ridding the TPLF caravan. On another note. I did talk a guy from Toronto who just came from Addis last week. He said, he cut his vocation short due to the emergency order. He said, when you are filling from Bole international, everything seems normal, but in the city, by six in the evening , the whole city closes and people retreat to their homes. He said at the moment, Jigjiga is the most peaceful town in all of Ethiopia.People from other regions are coming for shelter in Jigjiga.He also said for fifty years while the Somali region was either at war, or in emergency rule, finally the table are turned and the oppressors are at war. He said except few TPLF sympathizers detained by Cagjar, Jigjiga was cool and at ease.

Although ambassador Jeff Feltman mentioned meeting Abiy Ahmed when he returned to Washington from Addis this week, most of his interactions with the Ethiopian government officials were exclusively with the deputy premier and foreign minister Demeke Mekonnen Hassan. American sources write that the coming transition will be led by the deputy premier. According to the Ethiopian constitution and the succession process of the government, Mr. Demeke will succeed Abiy Ahmed if the later leaves office due to the current war in Ethiopia. Over three years ago, when Hailemariam Desalegn decided to resign from the office, Demeke was the legitimate prime minister in waiting, but the EPRDF decided to hold a vote among the four ethnic groups in the party , mainly the Amhara, Oromo, Tigray and Southern Nationalities. Each one of them had 45 members, and simple majority was needed to become the leader. While Abiy was groomed and political obstacles were removed for him to succeed, his elections weren't a done deal until votes were counted. Debresion Gabremickel the current TPLF leader was a candidate, so was Demeke and Abiy Ahmed. THe Amhara and the Oromo had decided beforehand to make a coalition to defeat the TPLF candidate. The TPLF , with help of some southern nationalities' members were hoping a three way raise. Suddenly, just before the vote deputy premier Demeke decided not to run and had thrown his support to Abiy. At the time , he was the leader of the Amhara democratic party and the deputy of EPRDF. Since then, he has been one of the most trusted allies of premier Abiy Ahmed. Mr. Mekonnen is a practicing Muslim Amhara from Gojjam. WE all know after the current war, the old Ethiopia of one strong man rule, where the winners write their own constitution and oppress everyone else is over. It could become a confederate or common wealth of autonomous states. Yet, in order to reach the ideal pluralistic and democratic Ethiopia, this nation must travel more rough train and pass huge obstacles. Many years ago, some of us said that the current Ethiopia of TPLF had three choices: plural democracy with multi ethnic communities, a Yugoslavia style disintegration or to keep the status quo which will lead its eventual implosion. THe TPLF has delayed the inevitable in 1991 through ethnic federalism coupled with authoritarian rule and some development especially the Oromia region. While the Oromo is the ultimate candidate to rule or win elections, nothing is written in a stone. And in order to rule, they must flow the constitutional frame work to win the top post. If Abiy can't get his army to push back the TPLF within weeks, the next move of the ruling party and the Americans will be to crown Mr. Demeke Mekonnen. The America supported Demeke could negoitiate with the TPLf and restore a cease fire. The latest from Abiy to go to the front and be a martyr for Ethiopia could eventually eliminate him. He is losing the support of the Oromo slowly but gradually, and that will lead his ultimate failure. While Abiy is elected and has the legitimacy to rule, this is not the time to go to the front. Ambitious generals and others with an ax to grind might shoot him. Few months ago, the president of Chad went to the font and the army told us he was killed by rebels when he got close to the front. After the election, we were expecting him to release the political prisoners , mend fences with the Oromo and form a unity government. Yet, just like a tone deaf person, he rode his own Amhara caravan without any worry. According to the American envoy, the TPLF wants the blockade to be lifted and Abiy want the rebels to vacate Amhara and Affar region. Mr. Feltman said that it is politically impossible for Abiy to negotiate openly with TPLF openly they occupy the land of his constituent, but they are willing to help through envoys. He also said that Abiy believes he will be able to push back the rebels back to Tigray by force, but his overconfidence is opposite of what the map is saying. The Americans are saying they are offering Abiy to force the TPLF back to Tigray without a war, yet the war might not wait the Diplomatic moves that could prevent disaster. When I notice from the Americans or the democratic party is the pressure of the Ethiopian/Eritrean diaspora is producing some change on the American attitude. Black congress people and some senators are speaking up in the favor of the Abiy government. The Ethiopian diaspora are the largest immigrant community in DC area and they are switching parties. THere is nothing scary for politican by someone vowing to vote them out. WE have already seen that in Virginia where a years ago Joe Biden won 10 and they lost in three points. That is minus 13 points. My suspicion is that in order to appease the Amhara and continue the Ethiopian project, the Americans could favour Demeke, an Amhara with the support of the TPLF, Somalis and some segment of the Oromo. Among the Oromo fighters who are ridding the TPLF caravan, there is no a single known politician or someone to lead the country if push comes to shove. The known Oromo leaders are either in jail like Jawar Mohamed, Bakale Garba or in house arrest like the leader of the real Oromo Liberation Front Daud Ibsa who was the armed Oromo from Eritrea. These Oromo leaders must win an election and come through the political process to win an election before jumping to the top. Thus, in this scenario, Demeke is the man. Despite being Amhara, he has certain advantages. He has been in government for a long time including the deputy premier in two different leaders, Abiy and Desaleyn. He will have automatic support from Mustafe Cagjar who is very close to the Amhara, and last but not the least, he will be the first Muslim to leader Ethiopia. I will tell you one more thing. Some twenty-one years or ago, many Somalis and a group of Amhara Muslims founded a Taxi Cab company with over hundreds of vehicles. twenty or more of the Amhara MUslims had joined with us. One thing I remember till now is each one of them prayed five times a day. To my surprise, one percent of the Oromo who were Muslims prayed. Being raised in the middle of the Orthodox dominated northern Ethiopia, they happen to be good and serious Muslims. In fact, the TPLF occupied city of Dessie, Wello used to be Muslim majority. Furthermore, most of the Ethiopia drought during emperor Haile Selassie took place in Wello. Finally, all that speculation will disappear if " Mujaahid" Abiy succeeds his war and pushes back thev rebels. What ever the outcome, some us also believe the same debate that taking place in Ethiopia will happen in the Somali region. No one will accept a top down corrupt enity in Jigjiga looting the resources of the people in the name of government.

That is possible.

Amisom is bad, but we Kenyans are efferent. That is why we need to stay in Somalia. Soon we will build more small businesses for Jubbaland. And by the way, Mr Madoobe and Deno , please fore that load foreign minister.

In other words, Madoobe and Kenya are in action. They want to kill the latest government demand from Amisom. In another thread our friend MMA had shown us the good deeds of the Kenyan soldiers in Jubbaland to counter the bad publicity and the convictions of Amisom soldiers by killing and then burning innocent Somali civilians.

Mr.Mohamed C/risaaq M. Abubaker had performed superbly in his duty. He is day and night compared to the Faroole boy who failed miserably. During the meeting between Somalia and African peace and security , Mr.Mohamed A. Abubaker had made his points with confidence making clear the position of the nation regardless of the government of the day. Hadalkiisa markaan dhageystay waxaan is idhi, Somalia sawta maanta sidii dawlad oo kale u hadashay. By the way he came from a very decent and honest family unlike the corrupt Jabahado and tribal warlords like Faroole. I know the new guy, C/saciid Muuse. He is a capable man who will do a great job. The problem is why now? THere are two theories. One is Ina C/risaaq M. Abubaker is in a higher league in terms of his outlook of Somali politics and state of country. He doesn't believe in regionalism, and has probably with almost zero connection with Deni and company in Garoowe. The second point is By taking strong firm on the future departure of the Amisom from Somalia, he might have endangered the future of Ahmed Madoobe in Kismaayo. The British who always are the lead plaintiffs or the main nations that convenes the security council on Somalia, had accepted the argument minister Mohamed A/risaaq has proposed. Thus, Madoobe went to Garoowe to secure his survival and the presence of Kenya in Jubbaland. So, the only way to achieve this goal and reverse the agenda of the government is to put a new road blocks for the election and weaken the prime minister by dragging their feat. Folks, in my opinion, the departure of this hard working foreign minister is probably a demand from Madoobe and Deni. So, Farmaajo and Rooble had to accept the demands of these two in order to move the election and get their cooperation. They let minister Mohamed C/risaq go, but at the same time they got the chief of staff or Farmaajo who might be little more receptive to these guys for the next security proceedings, but also a Farmaajo loyalist. Furthermore, don't forget that C/saciid Muuse and Ina Mohamuud Abubaker sat the opposite side of the table in Somalia . One is trhe son of former member of Somali supreme Council (Golihi Sare ee Kacaanka), and the other one, a close family member of former president C/laahi Yuusuf. I do believe C/saciid Muuse has more experience both inside and outside government than minister Mohamed. Let us see what happens. Dawlad 45 maalmood u hadhay oo wasiiro bedelysa. Cajiiib.

Former US assistant secretary for Africa Tabor Nagy said that the TPLF has no desire either to come to Addis nor declare independence. He said their main target is to depose Abiy and to be able to assert the same influence as before. Even TPLF supporters say declaring unilateral independence would put them in limbo just like Somaliland. Finally the media is also proudly talking how the TPLF attacked the northern command , took the weapons, killed the officers who resisted and took thousands as prisoners. THis was the crowd that accused Abiy for launching the attack. Despite what they said, Tigray needs Ethiopia more than ever. Even Getachew Reda says they want to preserve Ethiopia unlike Abiy Ahmed.

The Nairobi visit of secretary Anthony Blinken has shown that America has zero influence in the Continent of Africa, except few despots, such as Sisi, Al Burhan and Musaveni. DEmocrats are usually corrupt, weak and manipulators of events, but those who stood up and show real spine always come out stronger. If a Republican was a president like John McCain, Syrian Assad could have been deposed by the people. Some how America is always on the wrong side major issues in the world. Other than deception, they can't play a fair game, and these days, they have been gripped by the fear of losing to China.Today here is what the FAA warned about EThiopia, " A Federal Aviation Administration advisory cited the “ongoing clashes” between Ethiopian forces and fighters from the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), in the warning to pilots operating from the Addis Ababa Bole International Airport. furthermore, they added, "A Federal Aviation Administration advisory cited the “ongoing clashes” between Ethiopian forces and fighters from the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), in the warning to pilots operating from the Addis Ababa Bole International Airport. After this, who says the US isn't part of the conflict in Ethiopia. The TPLF is 400 km from Bole airport. What would the TPLF gain by shooting an innocent civilian airliner? and why America cheering. If this Abiy guy survives, America will be kicked out of the Horn of Africa.

Carafat, I posted this before reading yours. I guess we are both seeing the fake news.

It is another propaganda. Che, let us wait and see the meeting. This are probably just couple of people coming to Washington for their lobby presenting themselves as being invited.

I agree. Here is Ahmed Yasin, a bright man with valuable idea. He points the fake Shir Mustafe has called for the elders who have zero vision. If Ina Cagjar is serious he should sit down with real stake holders. Waa Wakhtigii is abaabulka.

Unlike the Amhara, Affar and Oromo ethnic states, the Somali state government is "Somali State" by name only. When Oromo, Affar and Amhara recruit young men and even women, they go major cities, hold rallies with music and speakers to encourage the youth to defend their homes. From there thousands are recruited and then transfer them to the training camps. You will be shocked to see the numbers marching. Now, how the Somali special force are recruited?. It is hard to tell. For two months, they couldn't even get 3000 men mostly from their own clan districts. They don't come to Awbare--- the largest district in Somali Galbeed by population where 385,000 people voted for the last election--Gaashaamo or Dambal. And God forbid if the clan forces are TPLF sympathizers you are doomed. Furthermore, clan forces usually choose where they are willing to fight. Also, the clan militia had shown that they are good at abusing civilians, but can't preform against well armed militia from Oromia or Affar. oF course they could burn villages, but not face to face war. It is proven. It is a clan entity with zero institutions. Mustafe Cagjar proclaimed to recruit

Che, Eritrea had 20 year sanctions and the new ones won't change much, but what is changing the war in north east. The American move today probably coincided with the Eritrean forces in western Tigray. They have moved to the conflict zone in Waldiya north of Dessie to cut the TPLF supply line. Everyone is recruiting and graduating tens of thousands of soldiers including Amhara, TPLF, Affar and Oromia. It seems this war will not conclude in Addis or any other place unless there is a cease fire or settlement.

Joint task force for the " Horn of Africa" sine when this force was established?. There is the African Command in Djibouti, but a new general just for us Somalis, Eritrea and Ethiopia, that is news to me. Certainly the democratic party is the party of intervention. Despite their drum beat against Russia, they are making deals with him indirectly. Their main target is China, Horn of Africa and Turkey. I would take Trump any day compared to these neoliberal interventionists who want to police the world. They are more dangerous than the right wing barking dog who is inward looking these days.The current Nigerian president begged Obama to sell him some arms in order to defend his nation from the scrooge of the Boko Harem, but Obama refused, yet we had the African command flying bombing missions to destroy B.Haram. In their address to the security council the AU is seeking a cease fire and objected any unconstitutional means to change the government. The Americans and others claim that Ethiopia is already a failed state due the destruction of the Ethiopian army by the TPLF. They believe the nature of the cease fire will determine what kind of Ethiopia will emerge. THe TPLF is demanding a weak confederate and demilitarized Ethiopia which doesn't threaten Tigray and others. THey are also asking an arms embargo and international monitors. On the other side , Abiy Ahmed will survive , but will preside a dysfunctional and weak federal state, and within two years will be flowed by the usual messy democracy and quarreling parties. Either way, the Tigray region could be the Kurdistan state America and Israel were trying to establish in the middle east since the gulf war. We could soon welcome the Kurdistan of the Horn of Africa. Folks, the Ethiopia of the last 50 years where one group dominates others while promising change is over. A friend of mine told me today that the new Ethiopia politics could just look like the one in Mogadishu within a year.

Look you offer some good analysis on some of the points, but somehow you failed to grasp the foreign intervention of the internal changes in Ethiopia. The TPLF was in disarray sine the unexpected passing of Meles Zanawi in 2012. While Hailemarium Desalyn became premier, open clashes did take place among them. In fact, most of the public finance looting took place from 2012-2017. When the Oromo uprising took place from 2016-2018, the TPLF kept their usual killing of the protesters, executions and mass arrests. The total strike of trade roots, especially trains and highways leading to Addis flowed. The whole country was shut down from Diredhabe to Addis. where 20 million Oromo reside. The ruling party could no longer control every village and town. Then in late 2017, the Oromo regional leadership cooperated with Queero and Jawar Mohamed openly. That is when America and others forced the ruling EPRDF to get another leader within the Oromo Democratic party which was one of the four partners of EPRDF. The chairman of OPD was Lemma Magrassa, but the TPLF and the Americans preferred Abiy who was working with the TPLF since 1991 when he was 15 years old. Even Jawar Mohamed openly objected the coronation of Abiy as a premier. So your idea of foreign powers not having certain ethnic or religious limit tests is invalid. The TPLF expected Abiy to be a puppet just like the one before him. He was their son who decided to be a leader rather than a puppet. The same thing is happening with America and others.He can not develop or build the needed infrastructure for future growth without the billions the Chines BRI offers Ethiopia. He offered to privirize the national telecom, banks, construction industry and even the national airline, but refused to abandon China. The TPLF could had secured their land, seek independence and negotiate, but decided to march, mostly by the instructions the received for regime change and sensing the weakness of the Ethiopian army. The Idea of Somalis coming to the power corridors of Ethiopia is not far fetched as you assume. None of us had thought the Abyssinian highlanders would lose power and Ethiopia will be led by an Oromo man who has a Muslim heritage. The Oromo Queero not only toppled Tigray power, but also an old empire. When we talk about Somalis coming to Addis, I don't mean the tribal oriented Jigjiga based leadership, absolutely not. There are capable Somalis within the federal government or outside Jigjiga. Furthermore, the Amhara has shown to be incapable of stopping the TPLF advance. Not only last month, but since August when they pushed through historical town of Lalibella and Waldiya. Abiy Ahmed should have realized this long ago. Even today as we speak, the talk in Addis is to involve Otomo, Affar and others to stop the TPLF. As I said before, the biggest changes of all come through war and the victors set the stage. If Somalis ally themselves with Abiy and punch their weight and become decisive in this war, certainly they will enter the Ethiopian political establishment , but also members of the military establishment of Ethiopia. Today, the Somali tone are set by those who want to replace Mustafe Cagjar, the ONLF, Faisal Rooble and others in Somalia who cheer for the demise of Abiy Ahmed because they see Farmaajo as his allied . WE know who they are against , but they don't say what they want or who they want to replace Abiy with. A member of the ONLF , Mohamuid Ugaas went to Washington and before the American national media said" we want to throw him by force if he doesn't leave". The national press was shocked. A person with real agenda would have said: " we don't want Ethiopia to implode, and we believe the only way to avoid bloodshed and humanitarian disaster is to find a cease fire and form a transitional government". These are the Somalis who frame their agenda only to their opposition. Faisal Rooble who doesn't know anything about military says, half million Ethiopian soldiers went to the Dessie front and 100,000 of them had dies. You can't deploy half million in a mountain train. On the other hand we oppose the corrupt Jigjiga rule for their clan based rule and their backwardness to build anything meaningful. Waxaanu u aragnaa qaadicu dariiq shaadh dawlad soo xidhay oo daka magac dawladeed ku dhaca. We all try to adhere with the universal pan Somalism that exist among the diaspora while advocating for our own regions and towns while hoping that Somali anchor state which is the glue that holds everyone together. Yet, deep down, I do believe that the corrupt and useless Somali state of Ethiopia could only exist as long as the federal government of Ethiopia is standing. If Ethiopia goes down, the disintegration of the Somali state could be similar or even worse of what took place in Somalia. There are almost zero institutions other than clansmen carrying guns and extorting money from innocent civilians. This point and this one below are to the point . AS you mentioned, even Joe Biden himself openly said there is competition between autocracies and democracies. Ethiopia, combined with Somalia, Eritrea and Djibouti with 150 million people, economic integration and leaders with similar thinking would be a great power in east Africa, the Red Sea and beyond. Usually, nations with 100 million people or more become their own civilizations and huge economic market. So, this war is beyond water carrier TPLF. On the Somali elders entering talks with neighbors, I totally agree. Besides, the Affar war has showed us that the Somali Liyu police is incapable of fighting real soldiers or those who could match them in terms of fire power. They can certainly kill and abuse unarmed Somali civilians , but not soldiers.

That girl is a TPLF insider, probably the cousin of Abdi Illey. She did one of the biggest damages to the government of Abiy Ahmed while holding a cabinet position. She resigned a month or so ago. Yet, her parents shouldn't be harmed. It is probably a routine investigation to find out if the family had contacts within the coup leading NGO's.

Arrafat, That is the probably the end goal of the negotiations. This idea of Abiy leaving or TPLF disarming which the Amhara claim is a none starters for everyone. Despite the initial hard line, everyone must win something. Besides, unlike Somalis , these people don't have spare country other than Ethiopia.

This Jaal Maaro had being fighting for the last two years, yet never liberated one village.

MMA, Furthermore, this Jaal Maaro is animist Oromo with no faith or morals to stop him. This OLA might have few TPLF rented fighters, but they are on the margins in terms of Oromo leadership and intelegensia. The leaders of Oromo are: Daud Ibsa of OLF, Jawar Mohamed, and Bakale Garba of Oromo federalist congress. This Jaal Maaro is probably a useful idiot and will be discarded soon. If you ask them what is their main cause, they will tell you that Abiy is a fascist. Many of our friends here including Khadaafi and Che have wisely expressed their distrust of the connection between Abiy and the Amhara. In fact, we have realized that if if Abiy had relied other than Amhara for advice, war could have been avoided. Yet, sometimes wars are the great equalizers of events and nations, and this war might lead for batter to many nationalities in Ethiopia. For starters, the Amhara will come down from the high horses and swallow their Unitarian Ethiopia they kept pushing since Abiy came to power. Today, they are just one of the ten or more ethnic groups of Ethiopia. Also, Abiy himself will be freed from the Amhara circle and change course for many issues. As Duufaan said the man has Muslim father and Muslim family siblings which means he isn't one of those raised to be extremist Orthodox Tigrengas and Amhara. A weak and irrelevant Tigray based in the north, whether they are separate nation or within Ethiopia serves us and many others well. The Amhara, despite their fake numbers could not defend their land when it mattered, and in the new Ethiopia, they will be yesterdays northern highlanders who lost their deputized colonial privilege. The Affar also had shown us that you could defend your territory if Abyssinian invade your land. So, my hope is a cease fire and a settlement , and new elections within two years. In the meantime let Abiy rule. \

If the TPLF water carrier boy from Nairobi is crying foul , then the coup had failed. Duufaan, If the TPLF agrees to withdraw their forces from Amhara, and the Amhara leave their region that is a win for Abiy. It seems Mr. Obasanjo got a good result quickly, which means both sides are tired of fighting, especially Tigray. The Americans keep talking about Eritrean forces leaving. Western Tigray bordering Sudan is controlled by Eritrean forces, and if they withdraw the TPLF will have the Sudan border to receive weapons. This is a big no. The last chance left for the coup to depose Abiy would be Kenya to arm the Borana in Moyale/Nagele region, and create more insurgency in the south.That is why the coup leader Jeffrey Feltman is in Kenya. The emergency situation in Addis was a good move. The TPLF could have placed bombs in the city to create chaos which in turn could have panicked the whole city.

Che, It means Abiy refused any American led negotiations. African problems resolved by Africans. I guess Mr. Feltman left empty handed. Abiy is making America small and irrelevant. Uncle Sam never forgets these little things. How about all those headlines about rebels at the gates of Addis

For our grand fathers, it was just yesterday. I did listen to the great Somali composer and playwright Hassan Sheikh Muumin narrating how his father, as a young kid left Harar with his family after Menelik too over in 1887 and settled Zaylac where he was born. Waxa uu odhan jiray laba xadaaradood ayaa iska kay dhalay, Aabahayba Harar buu ku dhashay Hooyadeyna Zaylac. Che, you raise good points, it either Yugoslavia or unhappy marriage like Bosnia. Either way you need allies.

Off course, if we keep acting like ugly nomad rebel without a right cause, you create enemies. We shouldn't refuse to be ruled by Affar brothers whom we share culture, custom and tradition. We have been ruled by Amhara, Tigray and other evil Ethiopians like the Derg, why refuse to co-exist with an Affar brother?

Che, Mille is the main highway juncture from Djibouti to Addis and western and northern Ethiopia. Controlling that town means cutting the lifeline of Ethiopia especially northwest. This Affar nomads are making history. They are our brothers , and we Somalis should make them our allies, instead of fighting against for two dusty villages in Siti. This Affars are going places. will see what happens.