Duufaan, A lot has changed in the middle east for the last few months.The UAE had not only seen the light, but had made a huge 180 in its foreign policy toward the whole region. For years, we, Somalis certainly loved to hate UAE for their destructive actions in our region and beyond. THey used proxy forces and terrorists to stop Turkey to help Somalia, going even further to bomb the Turkish crew building the Mogadishu--Afgooye road killing the engineers. They tried to grab Somali public assets like ports for pennies like a vulture capitalists. We hated their guts, but one has to admire the way this little nation has shaped the entire middle east, north Africa and the Horn of Africa for the last decade. They were hell bent to stop any democratic movements in the entire Arab and Muslim world in the region. THey deposed Mursi, Khadaffi and almost toppled Erdogan. They haven't stopped there until in 2017 when they got the crown jewel of power. They did the unthinkable by penetrating the most powerful house of power in the world--The White House. Trump and his son in law played to the tunes of the Emirates. They fired foreign secretary Tilerson by refusing their plans to invade and overthrow the Qatari Amir, Thani.THey influenced every aspect of American policy in the middle east. Their strategy in the region along the Saudis, the gulf, Israel and others who wanted to reduce the Iranian proxy wars in the region had failed thanks to the election of Joe Biden. The UAE had made diplomatic relations with Israel and probably had found out some of the policies of the United States to be detrimental to the gulf and the region. While America has been threatening Iran for the last 30 years, including the threat to bomb their nuclear facility and military installations, the opposite had happened. The American actions or inactions had not only strengthened Iran, it made Iran the dominant power in the region. The Shia sectarian policy of Iran targeted Arab dictators as long as they were Sunni. While cheering the demise of Husni Mubaarak, Saddam and Khadaffi, they fought to the death to protect Shia tyrants like Assad of Syria and Ali A. Salah of Yemen. THey dispatched Shia fighters from HisbuAllah and from Asia all the way from Afghanistan and Pakistan to save the bloodthirsty dictator of Syria who murdered half million people. They want to keep a Shia minority in the power who are less than 15% in Syria, and are helping the Houties to threaten both Saudi Arabia and UAE. While Trump put the Houties on the terrorists list, president Biden took of the list from the Houties. What that tells you? If this were Sunni Arabs trying to hold power after overthrowing the legitimate government, they would have been designated as terrorists in a New York minute. The democratic party is helping Iran while destabilizing Turkey through Kurds terrorists and allowing the siege of Saudi Arabia by the Houties. I think the UAE have seen the light and want to change course. Their rapprochement to Sunni power Turkey, their abandonment of general Hifter in lIbya is a great reset. The only victims of the war on terror were Sunnis. Rather than to insist on failed policy, the Emirates had shown to be mature enough to regroup. It isn't far fetched for Somalia to build close relations with them after the elections are over. Personally, I don't see any benefits coming from both Qatar and UAE in terms of nation building and infrastructure. On the other hand, it is a sad even to see the casualty of the Yemeni victims, especially an armed civilians, but I hope Iran and those who back them could see how aerial bombing is devastating to civilians which is happening in Syria as we speak. The Houties who are less than 35% of Yemen couldn't keep power like those in Syria. They must make a deal and leave behind their sectarian Shia quest for power. THese Houties might even have a wet dreams of taking Makkah, God forbid.

It seems the Jeegaan has moved from Hargeisa to Muqdishu. "Reer hebel ayaan ergo ugu tegney ku lahaa". It is one of many reasons that the Northern Habro couldn't survive the Mogadushu political wrestling. THey don't understand the way the game is played. While tribal loyalties are present in Mogadishu, it isn't the overriding issue in terms of building allies and voting. in 2016, both Shariif Ahmed and Omar Sharmaarke voted for Farmaajo instead of Hassan Sheikh. It was D block members who were the toughest opponents of Farmaajo. In Hargeisa, when someone is arrested, he doesn't wait for the court or the justice system, he has to find a Sultan who is either the cousin of the president or some elder of his clan to free the person. " Waar Inanka Abti baad u Tahee soo daa madaxweyne" This ugly spectacle is probably the end of Prof. Abdi Samatar. This was the man who was barking for 20 years about the foreign interference crying help from Halane and Nairobi. I thin Buurmadow is dispatched from Hargeisa to do probably two major jobs. The first and the most important is to protect the investment of Dahabshiil in southern Somalia. The second job which is shared both by Muuse Biixi and Dahabshill is defeating Farmaajo, stopping C/laahi Deni and electing Shariif Ahmed or Hassan Sheikh. THere is a debate among some analysts that the " Jeegaan" would prefer Deni than Farmaajo, but I am of the school that a Puntlander president is a real threat to the separatists than Farmaajo who doesn't have a real base to confront them in a serious way. By the way, Boormadow had crossed the line before while the audience from Galmudug were clapping. He indirectly told them how they helped Hargeisa peace and destroyed their own home. Furthermore, he was pleased what Ahmed Godane from Hargeisa has achieved in the south. Those fools didn't realize the insult until Yusuf Garaad commented. Personally, I don't blame Buurmadow who is tribal leader and only speaks for the interest of his tribe. Yet, one thing is clear. The Affessione tent meeting was a hand shake among thieves. WAxa lagu heshiiyey qofkasta waxa uu dhici karo in uu dhaco. Premier Rooble has decided not to complain anymore and play by the ugly rules decided among the crooks. WE will know soon who Rooble is helping to win the next election.

C/laahi Deni is in a difficult position, between hard and rock place. If he crushes the outlaws and displaces families, he will be condemned as warmonger who has no care of the locals. If he lets the Dayaano gang to fight another day and opts for reconciliation, the elders and political opportunists will undermine him. REgardless of what happens, the PL delegate to the parliament will be mostly Deni's people. If the Farmaajo expected numbers for his favour go down unexpectedly, C/laahi Deni will be a real contender. I do still believe that this contest will be between Deni and Farmaajo.

Fiqi is a bloodthirsty person. In order to destroy Qoor Qoor, he armed and helped Ahlu Shaytaan to wage war in Guriceel where many people died from both sides. He will do anything including murder. By the way, almost all the trouble makers of Somalia are or were " Wadaado" before joining the political arena.

In our tradition, those who wear Khamiis used to be the pious and religious people who were respected. The WAhaabi tradition in the gulf changed everything. in the gulf, the crooked politician, the police and thief all wear Khamiis, it is hard to tell. The Banaadir government must assess the situation and if they find the demonstration to be dangerous to the security of the city, they can deny the permit.

This is the job of the Banaadir administration. WE don't even know where Banaadir maamul ends and the federal one starts, Anyway, let the people demonstrate peacefully. That is their fundamental rights.

He slept a makeshift house in Jawhar while a president. That shows how serious he was.

Brother, I really like the way you put it. Somaliland is now just Hargeisa. In Puntland Boosaaso is in decline while NGO heavy Garoowe is where deals are made.With almost zero food production and skyrocketing inflation, 90% of the Somali people are suffering , especially the rural people and those who live in small towns. While everyone is talking about delegation of power and federalism, the reality on the ground is regional dictatorship and tribal oligarchy. In Garoowe, the local clan could raid the jail anytime and release their jailed outlaws.

By the way, a connected friend who was in Nairobi some time ago, told that he was surprised when he entered a villa and found out many famous Somali politicians and even one former prime minister chewing Qat while Matt Bryden was sitting there and chatting with them.

Duufaan, The main idea of Puntland was to a " pit stop" where the people could manage their affairs until a national government was established. C/laahi Yusuf and company had succeeded to establish a transitional government within just six years after the founding of Puntland. In fact, a lot of knowledgeable analysts said the more you prolong the the stability of the national government , the weaker the regional states could became. WAxay ahaayeen maamulo lagu sugayo inta dawlad qaran ahi ka imaanayso.

Not only they did adjudicate about the dispute between C/laahi Deni and Dayaano family, but they also decided how much tax money of Boosaaso should be divided and the the cancelation of DP World lease at the port. After 24 years, there is no government institutions solving internal problems. Dawladii qabaa'ilkii baa dib loogu celiyey. I guess C/laahi Deni is toasted. Ma ninka maqasha soo xereyn waayey ayaa geela loo diri.

One thing is for sure: Somalia doesn't have real diplomats to prepare counter points as Carafat mentioned. Yet, I never heard of one single ship carrying charcoal or illegal fishing one ever captured by the EU. Piracy in Somalia had disappeared long ago.I haven't also seen one battalion of soldiers trained by EU, I am sickened by their usual tactics using their useless military assistance for leverage. Eritrean president said last weekend that carrot and stick are used only against animals. Waar dalkan shisheeyuhu in uu mar uun ka baxo goormaa la gaadhi. Africans in the land, EU in the sea.

The 81% theft isn't possible through an elected leader. THe royalty from the oil alone make every citizen a trust fund owner. Waad maqasheen nin waxar neef geela lagaga bedeshay.

Haddaan u soo jeesto khudbada Farmaajo. This is the Farmaajo re-election speech. 1- I rejected the money the UAE wanted to steal from the banks. I am honest. 2-I refused the interference of foreign hands. I am patriot. 3- I welcome the decisions of salvation council. I am generous. 4- I built the army. I am for security. Folks, for the first time we got a real president. Well, Farmaajo is ready. who is the challenger? please stand up.

I think premier Rooble should be commended by hosting and concluding a credible road map this time around. I was one of those who worried about the typical quagmire expected from Somali leaders who never deliver when the chips are down. The absence of foreigners at the meeting also helped a lot. By demanding to be the commander in chief of the army and security, Rooble was probably targeting general Odowa and NISA chief Yaasin Farey, and that particular move had infuriated Guudalaawe of Hiir0Shabeelle who thought that Roonle was targeting the " Unaka" seats. The earlier selection of members of parliament and senate was one of the most corrupt shenanigans that took place for the last few months. Some brought their in laws, others their drivers and Mahdi Guuleed, the deputy premier , brought a lady, probably from Hargeisa and told her to cover their face. This comunique seems to make the next selection little bit more transparent. That is the good news. At the end Farmaajo seems to be the winner. Either Rooble is falling to the traps set by Farmaajo or he is undercover agent serving Farmaajo as some have suggested. I do believe Rooble was deceived by Cumar Geelle and others without knowing the mindfield he was stepping on to.. At the end Rooble did the right, especially the 40 days time table to conclude the selection of members.On the other hand , a friend of mine in Mogadishu said, what you see is nothing but a show and more battles are ahead. Waxa uu yidhi," Waa salaan aan niyo ahayn oo gacmaha laysa saarayo". Ragga guuldaradu raacday ee doorashada ka cabsanaya sida Ina C/shakuur iyo Hassan Sheikh warkooda weli ma dhamaan. I could be wrong but some people believe that there could be a second round.THey said C/laahi Deni who is defeated in Boosaaso and lately Garoowe city , which is becoming more of a tribal town than a regional capital, is badly wounded, and if he tries to mess with the seats of Boosaaso, expect trouble. On the other hand, if Qoor Qoor denies some seats to his rivals, a war could take place in Galmudug. Lafragareen and Modoobe are kings of their domains, and Cali Guudlaawe is threading very carefully. So, the next problems will not be coming from Rooble but from Deni and Galmudug.

Here C/rahman Faroole, a man who knows fewthings about conferences said about the" fake Shir" . "“Maamul goboleedyada waxaan leeyahay nina yuusan ninka kale ka eexan, cidna madaxweyne kama dhigi kartaan, Alle ayaa madaxweyne noo dooraya ee taas xisaabta ku darsada, Ilaahey quluubtiina ha isku soo jeediyo,” If Roobe wants to be commander in chief he should run for the next election. Cidna wadaxweyne kama dhigi karto yuusan is daalin. Here FAroole again about the security issues, : 'amni laga doodaayo aan intaan kadib dalka loo sii xayiri karin, isagoo yiri, “Qoladii aan ammaankeeda suga karin, anaga hanoo yimaadeen, inagaa u sugeynee, yaa awal noo sugi jiray ammaanka?. I might not like Faroole, but he speaks his mind sometimes in the right way. And , by the way, I like his contempt for the Mogadishu crowd.

Sawtaan hore u nidhi, idaacada afgembi ayuun baa lagula wareegi karaa. By the way, HUseen Aideed is from traditional ruling Somali family. His dad was an officer and leader, so the son knows few things about government while Rooble is related to Qaybdiid and others who have bad history all the way back. Farmaajo muxuu balaayo soo urursaday. He doesn't even have someone to check the background of his appointees.

Why is Rooble hanging with his own rope. few days ago he was accused of looting land, yesterday he removed intelligence service people from the airport and now he want to give Emirates the money confiscated by the state without proper legal chanell. Maybe those bloody Qataris reneged about their earlier promise to pay him, and this a payback time. WE need to free Somalia from the gulf fat boys both Qataris/Emirates. Peso waxa laga isticmaala dalka Mexico iyo Koonfurta Somalia keliya. Does he know what we call honor? Ilaah baa deeqda bixiye dalka fawdada kadaa.

After the victory, Abiy is throwing some goodwill toward the opposition. Jawar and company should prepare for the election of 2026. It is probably some carrots for Mr. Feltman to give some graceful exit since he is departing. 2022 will be the year of reconciliation, image building and consolidation of power for Abiy, then the regional configuration will start in earnest. Abiy should dismantle the TPLF infrastructure in the region next year.

Premier Rooble should know that he has a very narrow window to hold the election and then retire to the sunset. THey don't four or fourty days to bring those selected as members of parliament in a big hall and count the votes openly. There is no security issues to manage or to order things around these remaining five weeks before the election. Rooble isn't the commander in chief of the army and there are no constitutional routes to transfer that power to him. What is he thinking?Furthermore, it seems Somalia has passed the time where leaders will use the security apparatus at their whims. Neither the people of Mogadishu nor the Somali people at large will accept any reckless moves from Farmaajo or Rooble. The security is managed by police and military commanders who has shown great responsibility and neutrality. Rppble doesn't need to interfere with this. The so called " Badbaado Qaran" has nothing to save and not needed at moment. The people of Mogadishu are going about their business. Rooble should know he is a lame duck premier with zero powers . The only way forward to clear the air and bring stability is the election. Firing the intelligence chief, putting his men in defence and security ministers, what is Rooble up to? is he showing his power? Is he preparing to use force if his prefered candidate loses the election? I don't get it. I would suggest to president Farmaajo to act as the father of the nation and sit down with Rooble as two mature adults and find a way out of this mess .Farmaajo also should know that he is part of the problem now and must change course. If C/laahi Deni thinks he could prolong the misery by backing Rooble, he is mistaken and will be a dead duck in the coming election. The Somali people will not forgive those who play games for their future. He already lost to the Dayaano boys in Boosaaso and this Rooble cave talks will seal his deal.

Have you seen the constant tweets of those two (Rashid Abdi and Matt Bryden) during the Tigray war?. Rashis said Ethiopian cabinet ministers were booking flight to escape from Addis. THese paid hacks will be unemployed if Somalia becomes stable. I think this writer summed up everything with few words. That is real indebt unalysis that should put these guys out work.

The safety and security of Somalia are in the hands of a 30 years old criminal who built his wealth by looted relief aid from the poor. The next logical step should be for the cabinet to resign as a whole to stop this power grab. Every region should nominate their members of parliament quickly and hold the elections before total colapse. Why the Americans always like chaos?

Rooble said he want elections, right? Well he he will be getting one soon. Also, those so called international community must push for a quick election. The problem is Rooble has no where to hide. THe seats that have been already elected will not be contested. If every region elects its members for the next few weeks, we got an election. In fact, it is Hassan Sheikh who wants the election process to stop. wax laga doodo ma hadhin.

What these people don't understand is that president Farmaajo isn't in a trsnsitional government. He is the elected leader of the federal government of Somalia. He will leave office if he loses the election. No other ways. In fact, it is Farmaajo who is sending UN envoys, undesirable Amisom officer and others to their homes packing. He is the one forcing others to leave Somalia. WE all know that the hungry kid, Rooble was disptached from Djibouti to create new crises to open the door for Americans and others to create chaos as usual. News flash for all spoilers including USA: Farmaajo is ready for the election win or lose. Are you guys ready to face him? Biixi is barking from Hargeisa, Omar Geelle is desperate, and Kenya is worried.