Protests did happen in Ethiopia before, but this time it is bigger, bolder and fearless. Also, the reaction of the ruling class is as paranoid as any despot. Meles knew both the Oromo's and Somalis. When the Oromo agitated, he would go to their zone , sit down with them , make himself at home and bribe if possible. This Hailemariam guy is really paranoid. It is probably coming from the fear the Tigray guys feel from the Ahmara , as some kind superior creed. In their media they call the Ahmara as those who look down others , as racist or even the KKK. The other problem is the Ahmara's are every where in the government bureaucracy , the universities, and the media, while complaining the TPLF domination. add all that the 90% or so from the diaspora are Ahmaric. Rather than shit in their pants, they should bring closer the Oromo and concentrate their security efforts by purging the Ahmara. More security and more armored vehicles in big cities will not resolve the problem.

I see Cabdi Illey declare independence and defend the land . As soon as the Tigray declare independence , he should make peace with Oromo and recognize one another. Then hold a quick referendum and join the Somali union. Then within a year send 10,000 Liyu police to Mogadishu and finish off the cat and mouse game of Amisom and Al-shabaab. Biciid kanan dili doono subagiisa ma dhami.

Imagine 2 million people gathering for festival. This Oromo is really something unusual. They will get their independence soon.

This is exactly like former Yugoslavia, artificial nations put together by the allied powers. Che, this is huge . That " Shanta Soomaaliyeed", which our fathers dreamed for long time might be possible. This is a change of the century for Somalis. The empire that would have disappeared in 1974, after the down fall of Emperor Haile Salaase , was kept alive by a communist dictatorship until 1991. When Menguistu was overthrown by the TPLf in 1991, Meles and his army could not enter Jigjiga. They thought the Somali guerrilla fighters who challenged Minigistu before the TPLf would probably there. according to eye witnesses, they waited almost few months before they realized that the so called Somali lion was not there anymore . They could not believe what they found. They found a community fragmented by the Somali civil war that does not have any coherent army or political strategy. An old man by the Name Makhtal told meles to leave the land and proposed independence., but just like the Somali peace conferences of the nineties Meles dragged his feet, bought some time and eventually got his way. As soon as the Tigray declare their independence , we should declare ours too.

Fear is the what keeps dictators in power. If the gene leaves the box it is all over. Look at the Soviet Union, it was the fear of the communist party the kept people in line and as soon as that fear disappeared , it collapsed. $40 million Oromo rebellion will be hard to control. We are all busy watching crazy lunatic Trump and Mogadishu , but this is going to be the story of 2017.

I did talk today to someone from Galmudug and he told me that a renegade group within Galmudug, who are allied with President Hassan Sheihk were trying to attack the Gaalkacayo airport and destroy both Puntalnd strike forces based their and the Americans running the drone. He said , after the deadly attack the main idea was to bring Amisom troops to Galmudug and create some business for themselves and also empower president Hassan to postpone the election. As we speak, Galnudug president C/kariim Guuleed ordered all Galmudug state government to prepare the regional election and halt all other government services. He knows that the more the election is posponed the more problems for his region and others like Hiiraan.

Ahmed this is the full article. Bad baynu ka hadlaynaaye waxa laga yaabaa in faraha la inoo geliyo hawlo aynaan ka bixi karin. Dagaalka shiicada iyo khaliija weelkiisu buuxsamay ee laga yaabo in uu mar dhaw daato in aan ku dhex milano ayaan ka baqayaa. Baarlamaanka Soomaaliya ayaa laga rabaa in ay dib u eegaan oo ay ama diiddaan ma ansixiyaan dhamaan heshiisyada ay madaxda Soomaalidu galayso.

Dhaxal-sugaha Imaaradda Abu dhabi, ahna Abaanduulaha ciidamada qalabka sida ee dalka Isutagga Imaaraadka Carabta Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan ayaa shir jaraa’id oo uu qabtay September 25, waxa uu ku sheegay in dalkiisu heshiis la galay dalalka Soomaaliya iyo Masar,kadib wadahadal ay la sameeyeen dowladda Mareykanka si looga dhiso Magaalada Berbera ee waqooyi galbeed Soomaaliya dekad ganacsi midda ugu weyn dunida. Berbera , waxa ay dhacdaa meel u dhow gacanka Cadmeed oo ah marinka “ Baab Al Mandab” oo ah goob laga go’doomin karo dekadaha iyo Maraakiibta wadamada Djibouti , Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Masar , Saldannada Cumaan iyo Bahrain. Berbera waxaa Maamula Maamulka Somaliland oo sheegta inuu gebi ahaan ka go’ay Soomaaliya, balse dunidu ay u taqaan Maamul hoosaad ka tirsan dalka Soomaaliya. Maamulka Somaliland iyo Shirkadda Dekedaha caalamiga ee Dubai ee loo yaqaan DP World ayaa bishii May, 2016 ku kala saxiixdeen Magaalada Dubai mashruuc wadaag ah oo ku baxeysa lacag dhan $422 Million USD oo dib loogu dhisayo dekadda Berbera, ayna ku maamuleyso shirkaddaasi muddo dhan 30 sano. Heshiiska Somaliland ay la gashay DP World oo ay iska dhega tireen Madaxweyne Xasan Sheekh Mohamud, Ra’iisul wasaarihiisa Cumar Cabdirashiid Cali Sharma’arke iyo Wasiirkiisa Arrimaha Dibadda Cabdisalaam Hadliye Cumar inay cadeeyaan mowqifka rasmiga ah ee dowladda ayaa mar qura lagu soo baraarugay socdaal shaki dhaliyay oo Madaxweynaha waqtigiisu dhammaaday ku tagay Magaalada Abu dhabi, kulana kulmay Dhaxal-sugaha Imaaradda Abu dhabi Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan. Lama shaacin waxa laga wada hadlay kulankaasi shakiga dhaliyay ee qabsoomay August 23, ee qaab qaabilidda Madaxweynaha ay u ekeyd wax hareer marsan hannaanka lagu yaqaan diblomaasiyadda iyo hab maamuuska, balse sawirada laga qaaday fadhigaasi uu ka tarjumayay in gorgortan hoose la galayay. Dad badan oo u dhuun daloola siyaasadda Soomaaliya, ayaa waxa ay sheegayaan in damaca waalan ee Isutagga Imaaraadka Carabta uu yahay mid halis siyaasadeed iyo dhaqaalle gelinaya mustaqbalka ifaya ee Soomaaliya, lana mid noqon doono mid la mid ah caqabadaha ka soo banbaxay heshiiskii iskaashiga ee Kenya lala saxiixday 2009 ee sabab u noqday in muran la geliyo xuduud badeedka Soomaaliya ay la wadaagto Kenya, iyadoo dhowaan Dowladda Soomaaliya ay hordhigtay Maxkamadda Caalamiga ah ee Cadaaladda ” Hague” feylka ku saabsan arrintaasi, labada dalna ay aragtiyo iska horjeeda kala dhiibteen. Isla September 25, waxaa Xafiiska Madaxweyne Xasan Sheekh Maxamuud ka soo baxay War saxaafadeed ku qornaa luqadda “ English” oo uu ku sheegay in haddii dib loo doorto uu ka shaqeyn doono xoojinta waxa uu ugu yeeray xiriirka istiraatiijiyadeed ee dowladdiisu la leedahay Isutagga Imaaraat-ka Carabta. Sida heshiiska Dowladda Isutagga Imaaraatka Carabta ay la gaartay Soomaaliya, waxa uu qeexayaa in Imaaraat-ku ay ka aas’aasi doonaan dekad ganacsi xeebaha Soomaaliya oo kaalin muhiim ka cayaari doonta ganacsiga caalamiga ah. Fulinta heshiiskaasi , waxa uu ka qeyb qaadan doonaa xoojinta ammaanka marin biyoodka “ Baab Almandab”, halkaasi oo dowladda Isutagga Imaaraat-ka Carabta ay ka dooneyso inay ka sameysato saldhig milatari oo dhanka badda ah . Waxaa la tilmaamay in fulinta heshiiskan uu ka hor’imaanayo Istiraatiijiyadda Sacuudiga iyo siyaasadeeda ku aadan Marin biyoodka “Baab Almandab”, taasi oo aaney marna ogolaan doonin Dowladda Boqortooyada Saudi Arabia in Dowladdu Imaaraat-ku maamusho marin biyoodkaasi muhiim-ka ah. Waxaa sidoo kale, arrinkan diidmo kala hor’imaan kara wadamada Djibouti, China iyo Ethiopia. Djibouti iyo Ethiopia waxaa ka dhaxeeya heshiisyo ganacsi iyo mid milatari, waxaana labada dal ay ka heleen taageero dowladda China oo u dhistay khad tareen oo isku xira Magaalooyinka Addis Ababa iyo Djibouti , si la mid ah Ethiopia waxa ay saanadeeda milatari , raashiin iyo agabyada kale oo ay ku jirto gaadiidka iyo qalabka elektaroonikada ay kala soo degtaa Dekadda Djibouti oo si casri ah dowladda China ay u dhistay markii dekaddaasi laga ceyriyay Shirkadda DP World oo hore u maamuli jirtay, halka Djibouti iyo Imaaraat-ka xiriirkooda diblomaasiyadeed muddo gaaban noqday mid mugdi galay. Dowladdo badan oo ay ku jirto Iran iyo Israel ayaa marar badan isku dayay inay Soomaaliya heshiis la galaan si ay u maamulaan marin biyoodkaasi istiraatiijiga ah oo halis gelinaya ammaanka qaranka qaar ka mid ah wadamada carbeed. Dowladda Isutagga Imaaraat-ka Carabta waa dowlad yar , aan laheyn awood balaaran oo dhanka milatariga ah, balse ku xeel dheer abuuridda qalaanqal siyaasadeed iyo mid ammaan, iyada oo adeegsaneysa lacagaha ay ka hesho iibgeynta shidaalkeeda. Sida saraakiil sirdoon ay hore u xaqiijiyeen , Dowladda Isutagga Imaaraat-ka Carabta waxa ay ku lug laheyd afgembigii dhicisoobey ee dalka Turkiga ka dhacay July 15, ee shacabka dalkaasi oo taageero weyn u muujiyeen Madaxweynahooda Recep Tayyib Erdogan ay ka hortageen ciidan is abaabulay oo xukunka awood kula wareegi rabay, Dowladda Soomaaliya ayaa noqotay dowladdii ugu horeysay ee diidmo adag kala hortagtay afgembigaasi fashilmay, halka Dowladda Imaaraat-ka ay dhaleeceysay afgembigaasi 24 saac kadib markii si rasmia ah loo ogaaday inuu guul dareystay. Saraakiisha sirdoon, waxa ay kale oo xaqiijiyeen in Dowladda Isutagga Imaaraat-ka Carabta ay ka dambeysay afgembigii aan dhiigga ku daadan ee Milatariga Masar ay xukunka kala wareegeen Madaxweynaha xabisan Mohamed Morsi . Morsi ayaa xukunka laga tuuray July 3, 2013 muddo sanad kadib markii si dimoqraadi ah loo doortay, waxaana afgembiyay Taliyihii ciidamada xilligaaasi, haatanna ah Madaxweynaha dalkaasi General Abdel Fattah El-SISi

That is good news. It has been almost eight years and Somalia still do not even have two brigades of army who can fight well. With all the money that was spent in Amisom and others, who knows it could have built a national army. The Turks dispatched 200 trainers and said they will train up 10,500 Somali soldiers. Many years ago I said, Two mechanized brigades could eliminate Al-shabaab and others. You do need to play a cat and mouse. Amisom usually liberates a town from Al-shabaab , but their fighters move to the country side and regroup again with almost no casualty. In the real traditional wars, armies clash and when you defeat the army , they suffer causality and they surrender both arms and men. Rather than chase them until the end and finish them of , a known routine of endless war is going on between Al-shabaab and AMisom. The city of Marka alone has changed hands more than three times this year alone. I jiid aan ku jiide waa jeenyo daalis. markaas buu rabaa weliba hadana in la doorto.

Again, Allah ha u naxariisto intii dhimatay. Malister, Saaxiib you got some points there and maybe we should all wait for the American investigation. The only thing I would like to add is that we Somalis always try to cure the decease without finding out the symptoms that caused in the first place. We all agree that the biggest threat to Somali nation state is the international terrorism manifested in the name of Al-shabaab and those who are arming them. Look the army of Al-shabaab and how they look: matching " Cimaamad", sandals, new army uniform, medical equipment for those wounded and all logistics of an army supplied by someone. If you want to see indigenous insurgents , go look how ONLF soldiers look like or the Suldan Wabar led AWdalites in the mountains last year. They looked like the original Somali "Janhad" with not enough food , clothes or arms. This Al-shbaab thing is a project to keep Somalia down, so we should clean among us in order to survive. https://www.google.ca/search?q=ciidamada+al-shabaab+ We all want The Americans to hunt down a terrorist or another Al-shbaab associate, but The Americans are an elephant and when they room the land they always do more damage than good. They may eventually eliminate the menace of Al-shabaab, but it will take them a long time. Our friends in Galmudug did not realize the grave danger of Al-shabaab taking hold in central regions. There were members of Al-shaab captured in action who were in jail in Puntland last year. One of them was released after his associates kidnapped people and demanded his release. He was released, and that was same the guy who organized the truck bomb. Another land mark of the American drones are they target mostly wanted individuals regardless of the cost or the collateral damage. Believe me , it is hard to hide in Mudug unlike Mogadishu. We all hope that Puntland and Galmudug will cooperate to eliminate the national threat of Al-shabaab.

Tilamook, I really, checked this information carefully. You can not wipe the women and children with misinformation. This is really a good wake up call for Galmudug. I heard that because of the huge truck bombs that hit Gallakcayo, brought some focus to that region. there will more drones, and Even secretary Kerry commented about that huge truck bombs

According to a British news paper, the British government are sending more troops to Somalia. Most people did not see the report, but the British explicitly said that their main goal is to train regional armies who are more effective against al-shabaab. They accused the Somali army of being controlled by " Soviet era generals' who are outdated. They will be concentrated in Lower Shabelle and Bay regions. So folks , there will be more strikes against many Somali militia's if they do not clean themselves of Al-shabaab menace.

Hello guys, Good Friday, I hope by now the emotions of the Mudug incident have calmed down compared to yesterday. Sometimes, it is wise to wait and gather the necessary information before shooting a comment. Now, let us look carefully on the Mudug drone strike and those who were involved. First of all, the Americans do not ask anyone's permission to strike those they deem to be terrorist or armed non state actors rooming the land. They did hit Al-shabaab leaders and other enemy fighters in Jubbaland, Shabeelle, Bay, Bakool and Gedo. Neither the Somali government nor others are consulted. On that note, The Mudug drone strike is not different than those taken by the Americans. Also, you would not hear anyone from the local forces or the so called Somali army complaining. Second, there are American trained and paid strike forces that operate in many Somali regions including Puntland and Galmudug. These forces have their own command and control who are independent from the local administration. For example, the Puntland based PS forces are among the best trained forces who have engaged Al-shabaab forces in Galgala mountains and other parts of Puntland. Few years ago A/raxman Faroole tried to replace the head of the PS general Osman Dayaano. The general refused. How can you fire someone whom you do not pay his salaries and equipment. Faroole even traveled to America and asked the state department and others to coordinate their security efforts with the Puntland leadership. Nothing was offered and the PS of Puntland is still independent from the local militia. The American defense department and it's overseas military operations has it;s own policy of making security alliances with those it considers effective against insurgents and terrorists. They closely ordinate with Kurd's in Iraq, Shia militia in Iraq and some Afghan tribal warlords. Even during Cabdi qaybdiid's term in Galmudug, there were some American funded troops there. So, to make the story short, some militia connected with Galmudug, fired some shots few nights ago around the Gaalkacayo airport perimeter and fled. American drones were following the movements of certain wanted members of Al-shabaab in the area . The information about the group came from Galmudug intelligence members and the Puntland PS forces. As of now , the Americans claim to have video of the strike and wanted members who were captured in this operation. Also the Americans consider any threat against the PS and those who are at the forefront of the fightagainst Al-shabaab as a threat to themselves, thus they act decisively when they detect any unknown movements in the area. I hope some of this information will calm down the nerves . It wasn't like C/weli or the Puntland government asking for help to destroy Galmudug forces. I know there are some who are trying to take advantage of this incident and wipe tribal animosity between neighbors. Remember , whether it's the president or the prime minister , Somali leaders have no say of the movements and operations of the foreign troops, let alone Puntland . If it was the PS who were responsible for the strike, , you must know they are not under the control of Puntland. Puntland ayaa Maraykanka keentay wax soconaya ma ahan.

Update, The latest news is people in Gaalkacayo are now saying those killed were rural people. They should clarify this. earlier reports said they were part of Gamudug soldiers. If this were non commissioned people rooming the land with arms, then the Americans are probably correct. Any way we need the correct information to analyze better.

If these were regular Galmudug army militia , then condolences to all. Allah ha u naxariisto.

Mooge, arrinta ha balaadhin hana buun buunin. There are few things that must change to find peace in Mudug. First, the Galmudug administration must stop the Al-shabaab killers and others launching attacks from Galmudig. The truck bombing in Gaalkacayo was not the first major attack that come through Galmudug. earlier this year , a huge contingent of Al-shabaab easily passed their coastal waters and landed in Puntland . Fortunately , they were either killed, captured or repelled. You can not let these people operate in your territory . They are everyone's enemies and will eventually destroy Galmudug after they destablize Puntland. So, Galmudug must take decisive actions and hunt down those who are hiding in their land. 2-It could be true that the Americans drones may have seen some Sinister activity in the area, but as history has shown , the American pilots never shoot straight. If these Americans have eyes in the sky, why didn't they detect the 400 Al-shabaab militants who traveled hundred of kilometers of sea water and came to Puntland. I do not trust the Americans on these issues In 1993, the H.G elders were holding a very crucial conference about Mohamed F. Caydiid (AHN) in order to resolve the issue between him and the American forces who were trying to capture him. They were who and who of that community. According to the Americans, Caydiid himself was supposed to attend. Some how , he came and left, but the spies already communicated to the Americans about his presence. The Americans bombed the conference hall and killed many wise people who could have resolved the issue. The rest is history. Also, at this juncture of Somali election and the expected change , we do not need a new conflict or animosity between these two communities. This kind of conflict serves well only Hassan Sheekh and those who are trying to keep the status quo.It is also intended to damage the campaign of the prime minister who is among the leading candidates. I have been reading the report given to the United State congress by the former commander of African Command in Djibouti General David Sanchez. He said they have taken more than six hundred missions in the region targeting different Groups. . The Pentagon and those who want the war business to continue , do not pay attention to the small details of Somali tribal and issues that must be considered in order to defeat Al-shbaab. The Galmudug people should calm down and consider this as some kind of a mistake from the American drones. This must be also a wake up call for their blind activity of passing bombers and terrorists to Puntland. Also the Puntland administration must be very careful to expand these Somali quarrel to another level. They should explain to their cousins in Gakmudug how things did happen. They should pass the ball and blame the Americans.

Here in the western hemisphere , we are all watching what observers call the election of the century in United States of America. For Somalis every where, there is another equally important election coming just a week or so before the American election . In 2012, at end of the transition period, everyone was expecting the emergence of an extraordinary leader to move the country forward from that difficult juncture. Whether by luck or design, we all got an ordinary president by Hassan Sheikh Mohamud. While this president and his government put back the Somali map again in the eyes of the world, he lacked the bold moves that could have symbolized a new Somalia regardless of it's weakness. A great deal of progress have been made in Somalia in terms of government institutions and regional state formations . While pain staking small incremental progress could only be noticed in due course, bold national moves encourage the moral of the nation that was down for decades. He could have sent a notice to the Kenyans six months ago--in order for their farmers to prepare for about the incoming Qat ban---then pass the legislation and sign. It could have been a great land mark and legacy for the history books and we could have celebrated a victory against our neighbors for the first time in decades. . Who knows , it might have helped him to win the election, but as the saying goes, " no guts , no glory". Although everyone proclaimed a national government with legitimate mandate and power to set it's agenda, neither the president nor his government could have moved any thing without the help of international donors and the united nations. The unending Somali quarrel could not have been resolved without supervision of the IC. . While the outlook for the future is always expected to be better, the hardship on the Somali people is not over yet. Few months ago a man with conscience who visited Mogadishu and south central Somalia spoke about the sky scrappers towers in Mogadishu , the constant NGO and Mira Qat flights from Nairobi and all the foreign interests flooding the city. He said , the Somalia we knew decades ago, the people knew who was in charge of their country for bad or for worse, but today, no one knows who is running the country. He said those of us in the diaspora could not imagine how people are surviving in this inflationary environment. He said " Do not be fooled by the tall Mogadishu tall buildings, in fact the Somali people back home are suffering tremendously ,yet they are one of the most resilient people , especially those living in the south and around Mogadishu., they have been killed and bombed by merciless religious cult on one side and abused and neglected by the government on the other side". I did ask him about the coming election and the chances of any thing good coming out this time . He said ," No one can predict about the next president, because those who are running and paying the bill might bring a new shining president ridding with a horse ( Waxaad arki ayuu yidhi , qof aadan ogayn oo faras lagu wado sidii Hassan Culusow)". In this article, I do not want to concentrate on the merits or weaknesses of the government , but would like to examine the candidates and sort out the contenders from the pretenders. Two weeks ago , there was a press release by a group of candidates against the president accusing him of extending his mandate. Do not be fooled by the false unity or the solidarity of the opposition candidates, because each one is by his own Sultan( Keligii Suldaan). here is the list of the " The counsel for change in Somalia". 1- Mudane C/weli Sheekh Axmed, Gud. Xisbiga Madasha Wadaniga, candidate for 2016 2- Mudane Cabdi Faarax Shirdoon , candidate for president, 2016 3- Mudane Cabdiraxman Sh. Maxamuud Faroole, candidate for president, 2016 4- Mudane Cabdullahi Goodax Barre. 5- Mudane Xassan Macalin Maxamuud, chairman of the Daljir party, candidate for 2016. 6- Mudane Cabdullahi Axmed Xuseen (Coonka) member of parliament. 7- Mudane Saacid Abdullahi Dani, candidate for president ,2016. 8- Hon.Cabdullaahi Ciilmoge Xirsi, chairman of Xiis party, candidate for president. 9- Mudane C/raxmaan C/shakuur Warsame, chairman of Wadajir party, candidate for 2016. 10- Mudane Cali Xaaji Warsame, Gud. Madasha Cadaalada & Hourumarinta, candidate for 2016 11- Mudane Maxamuud Axmed Nuur Tarsan, chairman f social justice party, candidate 2016 12- Mudane Ambassador Maxamed Cali Ameeriko, candidate for president, 2016 13- Marwo Canab Maxamed Daahir, candidate for president, 2016 14- Mudane Dr C/naasir Cabdulle Maxamed, (Gurmad) candidate for president , 2016 15- Prof. Cabdirahman Cabdullahi Badiyow, Gud.Xig. Xisbiga Madasha Wadaniga. 16- Mudane Salaad Cali Jeelle, chairman of democratic party, candidate for president, 2016. 17-Mudane Ambasador Eng Axmed Macalim Fiqi- Xoghayaha Guud ee Xisbiga Daljir. 18-Maxamed Cusmaan Caanooy (Barnaamij) –Kulan party chairman. 19. Marwo Faadumo Dayib, candidate for president,2016 20. Mudane Cabdirisaaq Waaberi, chairman national unity party, candidate for president, 2016. 21. Mudane Mukhtaar Caynaanshe- accademic, candidate for president, 2016. 22. Mudane Maxamed Cabdirisaaq Maxamed, candidate for president, 2016 Add this list President Shariif Ahmed and former prime minister Mohamed C. Farmaajo. This candidates are as diverse as they come. Former presidents, prime ministers , ministers, educators, businessmen, women and politicians. Running for president is not the only way a citizen could contribute to the well being of his country. Some could join and revitalize the parliament, others could join the the public service or just be a voice for those who are in need. One must consider, the organizational capacity, financial backing and other necessary skills needed to win this unusual indirect election. Yet, we see everyone is jumping to the floor regardless of his chances. Some do not even consider the geographical background of their opponents and the effects it may have on their chances. Three former prime ministers , all of them from Gedo region are running for president, don't they realize the duplication or the vote spilling their candidacies would create, which in turn benefits the man they are trying to unseat?. In another case, C/raxman Baadiyow and C/weli Sheekh Ahmed, two men belonging to same party, as the chairman and his deputy are also both candidates. Others are just disgruntled former officers of the state fired by the president, like Ambassador Cali Ameeriko. In the late sixties of Somalia , members of parliament used to proclaim, " Ama la i dooray ama daadku i qaad", roughly means, either I am elected or will be swept by the current" . Even the last election of 1969, the political parties of the country reached around 80. Each one had name and flag, yet when the election was over , all of them except C/risaaq Haji Hussen, joined the winning party--the SYL At this moment , it is difficult to predict those who have the best chances of winning the presidency, but, I would like to separate the contenders from the pretenders. Some are just spoilers who want to make statement , others want to use the election as an opportunity to be in the limelight for future positions, while others want to remain relevant and keep making noise. Especially the diaspora members who want to make a name for him/her self. Rather than learn more about the Somalis of today who are very different from the one we left behind decades ago, they want to start from the top. Here are the pretenders who might not even get 5% of the vote: Cabdi Farax Shirdoon C/naasir Cabdulle Maxamed Maxamed C/risaaq Maxamed Mukhtaar Caynaanshe C/risaaq Waaberi Yaasin Mahi Macalin C/laahi ciilmooge Xirsi Canab Maxamed Daahir C/qaadir Maxamed Cismaan Saciid C/lalaahi Dani Salaad Cali Jeele Cali Xaaji warsame Some of these candidates will probably drop out sooner than later , while others are just wasting their time and resources. The real contenders who have both the means and the experience to hold the office are very small group. Some of the most qualified and experienced in the Mogadishu quagmire are C/raxman Baadiyow and M. Nuur Tarzan. This two men will be obstructed by two men from Mogadishu who both are presidents, so their chances of surpassing Hassan Sheekh and Shariif Ahmed are very slim. Which brings us finally to the heavy weight contender: Hassan Sheekh Mohamuud Shariif Sheekh Ahmed Cumar Abdirashid Sharmaarke. C/weli Sheekh Ahmed Mohamed Adbilahi Farmaajo Abdirahman Mohamed Faroole Abdirahman Abdishakur Warsame Faadumo Dayib Some might be wondering why Faadumo Dayib is included in the list since she is a novice from the diaspora?, well, I will explain latter, but now let me analyze the real contenders. When most Somalis read the list, they just associate these names with individual contenders , assuming and calculating their chances. The fact is these names mean nothing, and instead the emphasis should be put on the larger agenda behind the names. On that note,excluding the outsiders, all these thirty or so candidates belong one of the two main groups. To simplify the list I will divide in to four groups. A) Alla Sheekh B) Damu Jaddiid C) C.C. Sharmaarke D) Outsiders. Alla Sheekh was a moderate Islamic movement founded in the seventies In Mogadishu by a famous Sheekh called Sheekh Nuur Colow and others. Shariif Ahmed never had any association with the Wahabi influenced Islamic Courts union pushed by Sheekh Hassan Dahir Aweys and other hardliners, but since he was a Mogadishu area native , they recruited him as useful token in order to attract his clan members in the capital region . Many of the candidates in the list are a front for Shariif Ahmed and the Alla Sheekh movement, among them: President Shariif Sheekh Ahmed A/rahman C/shakuur Warsame Ahmed Macalin Faqi, former national intelligence chief under Shariif Mahamuud Nuur Tarzan Hassan Macalin Mahamuud, chairman of Daljir party Cali Xaaji Warsame, chairman of " Madasha Cadaalaada". Salaad Cali Jeele, he is not Alla Sheekh but an associate of Shariif Ahmed. All this members will eventually join Shariif Ahmed one way or the other. Damu Jaddiid were also members of the Islah Islamic movement. When the war of the Islamic courts started , they did split from the non violent movement of Islaah and joined the courts. Unlike Alla Sheekh , this movement is influenced both financially and politically by foreign entities and governments, in fact , their whole political and economical infrastructure is based on foreign money from the gulf which enabled them to set up schools, charities and businesses. While Credit should be given by their resoluteness to stay in the country during hard times and build some institutions, their biggest weakness is they do not have the can do spirit needed to move the country forward In their whole life , they relied on handouts from others to do things for them, and that same mind set is the one crippling their ability to fix the security and other issues of the day. At the moment, the Damu Jaddiid that was established as a movement is no longer there. Like most Somali political parties , they are one time use only. Most of the members are discarded either for tribal reasons or for their inexperience to take part in the state apparatus. Among the notables are: President Hassan Sheikh Mohamuud Farah A/qadir A/Kariim Huseen Guleed A/salaam Hadliye Cumar , not member, but an associate who was chair of UNDP mission in Somalia. Mohamed Cumar Carte , a member and long associate of the president. For four years, president Hassan concentrated his whole energy on how to win re-election. He even neglected the main issues of the state by manipulating federal states in to his scheme. It will be difficult to defeat him, but won't be impossible. Please stay tune for the next part..... we will discuss the prime minister, the outsiders, Marwo faadumo dayib, the Gedo boys ,and the northern members in Mogadishu who are crying foul.

Guuni, saxxiib horta in aad gaadh hayso oo aad kor u dhawaaqdo kol ay Hargeisa tahay yo haddii Muqdishu arrintu tahayba waad ku mahadsan tahay in aad hadh hayso. Aad baan ula socon jiray doodii dheerayd ee adiga iyo Oodeweyne idin dhex martay. Waxaan weli aad uga sii xasuustaa qaybtii aad uga hadlaysay " ceel iyo iskuul lama dhisayee daar ayaa calanka la dul taagaya". Taas halkaa hadaan ku dhaafo , ma maqashay sheekadii Ina xagaa dheere iyo haweenka roobku qarqiyey. Aan ku celiyee reer ayaa waxa ku da'ay roob aad u xoog badan oo culus. Haweenkii meesha joogay ayaa qayliyey oo mid baa waxay tiri " ma reer rag leh ayaa roob sidaa u galaa". dhawr jeerna way ku celisay. Ina Xagaa dheere ayaa u dulqaadan kari waayey cabashadii haweenka kadibna , inta uu waran qaatay ayuu roobkii dhawr jeer ku tuuray. Waa uu ogaa in waran la tuuraa roob joojinayn laakiin waxa uu qancinayey haweenka. Marka , waxa jira qaladaad badan oo ka dhacay dadkii aynu ugu yeedhaynay madaxweynayaasha , hase ahaatee awoodoodu koobanayd dhinac walbana ka dabranaa. mararka qaarkood waxayagu waa xagxagasho iyo in aaanu dadka u sheegno in aynu nool nahay mooyaanee dawladnimadu waa mid leeg leeganaysa. Kenya waxay ahyd meelihii dwladaha Soomaaliyeed lagu soo dhisay, sidoo kale waxay fadhina u ahayd dhamaan siyaasiyiinta Soomaalida badankooda. Waxaan qabaa haddi nabadi timaado arrinta Jubbooyinkuna degaan , dhibaatada Kenya inagaga tagaysaa waxay noqonaysaa mid kooban marka loo eego tan Shbaabka iyo shisheeyaha kale. Sida la cadeeyey kenya afar sabo ka hor inta aan heshiiska la gelin ayey dhiuka calaamadaysatay , cabaar 2005. markii dawlada Soomaaliyeed ee ku meel gaadhku taaba gashay ayey lagu beegay heshiiska calaamadaynta badahaee 2009ka. Isku soo wada duub oo cashar fiican ayey ino tahay, raganina way ilduufeen, haddii la is maxakamadaynayana dad badan oo ka dambiyo waa weyn ayaa jooga. Sida CC sharmaarke sheegayna waxa ay u muuqataa in wadan saddexaad oo dhexdhexaad ahi soo diyaariyey heshiiska is afgardka ah. Hadiise ay cadaato in isla wadaankaasi, oo Norway ahi " contract" lagu siiyo in uu shidaal isla halkaas ka baadho, markaas arrintu weji kale ayey yeelan.

Barwaaqo, when they announced this agreement few months ago I was one of those who welcomed. DWP is world class company and I was welcoming the investment and modernizing of the Berbera port. No one including the Somaliland parliament had seen the real contract. It is now clear that the UAE are taking more than the majority stake of the port(65%). That is huge stake in a public property . No country in the world allows foreigners to take more than 50% stakes , especially for public assets like : electric utilities, water companies, airports and ports. The problem is the Arabs sweetened the deal by giving $15 million signing bonus to those who negotiated. They landers saw the blinking cash and forgot the future. That is why as it is this , the deal can not be allowed to stand. I do not believe Hassan Sheekh when he says hat he objected the deal to give Berbera to UAE. It was part of a package deal pushed by the gulf countries including Saudi Arabia. The primary idea was to use the port for the disastrous Saudi war in Yemen. Somalia was offered domestic jobs in the gulf and other donations for the Government. If he was honest , he would have spoken few months ago. Also in Djibouti they did sign thirty years contract and some how Omar Geelle cancelled that contract two years ago. When this issue first came to light , our friend Mr. Che lamented about giving up all the valuable assets of the country , but I was one of those who supported. I was wrong and I would like to declare that brother Che is definitely the conscience and the moral compass of SOL residents.

Somalia has the power to reject. I did not see the document but it is a bad deal. The UAE are getting 65% stake which is very high for any public property ( hantida maguurtada). Maximum allowed with this can of public port should be 49%.

He already agreed and signed the earlier documents to authorize the negotiations . The Emirates paid " $15 million directly to Siilaanyo for the final agreement, and Hassan did not get his cut, that is why he is raising his voice. Soon the Arabs will give his cut so he could use for the election.

Che, this new document just released by the Kenyan media from the IGAD meeting in Mogadishu last week, also shows certain pattern from Kenyans. They seem to be pushing both business and political agendas to extract from this Somali amateurs. You can not enter trade or visa accords with other nations without studying the impact in your economy and people. As the article points, Kenya had exports 15.2 Billion Shillings of goods to Somalia in 2015. 95% of that export is from Mirra Khat. You can not agree on any trade liberalization on this huge deficit. SH15.2 Billion deadly drugs. No wonder that is why they pushing free visa and other schemes. The Somali state shall not , I repeat shall not enter any agreements of any kind until all foreign troops from the neighboring countries withdraw from Somalia or until a government elected by the people directly.

Mr.Maakhiri , you got a point about president Hassan sheekh taking advantage on the issue, and I just saw his latest update on the matter. On that part , it looks like electioneering. What I am referring is that certain people want to put on this solely on the prime minister and former minister C/shakur. At the time of the signing of memorandum , Somalia was very venerable state in terms of transitional government. In 2009, Shariif Ahmed just took over From C/laahi Yusuf and was seeking some legitimacy in the eyes of the regional governments. of course mistakes did happen. If we really want to investigate the whole issue of Kenyan involvement of Somalia, then we must look the whole package of Jubba invasion and the original idea of creating a buffer zone between Somalia and Kenya. The consolation for me is that regardless of the condition of our country, Somalia for the first time in 25 years, is challenging the neighboring country openly without fear in international courts. Also, our government is learning that you can be a friend to someone without sacrificing your national principle. If the court rules for the status quo of MOA, then that will be bad for those involved.

Exactly. In the real world the fine print is important. That is why people bring their lawyers when doing important transactions. I heard that the document signed first by minister C/shakur was drafted by Kenyan lawyers.

Guuni, hawsha waxa soo dedajiyey calaamadaynta iyo dib u cusboonaysiinta shariga badaha oo sodonkii sanaba dib loo eego ayaa ku soo beegantay. Kii hore waxa la saxiixay 1979, kan Soomaalida iyo Kenyaatugu ku heshiiyeen in laga wada hadlo waxa uu ahaa 2009. Ma jirto haba yaraatee dhul la siiyey Kenyaatiga ee waxa ay sameeyeen heshiiskii ayey dhinac kale u duween ayagoo ka faa'iidaysanaya Soomaalida liidata. The way I see , it is electioneering. If you carefully read the memorandum, it only mentions the submission grants to one another outside the exclusive zone of 200 nautical miles. "Memorandum of understanding between the government of the Republic of Kenya and the Transitional Federal Government of the Somali Republic, to grant each other no objection in respect of submissions on the outer limits of the continental shelf beyond 200 nautical miles to the commission". It is clear that Kenya used this " MOA" to maneuver and used to grant exploration rights to foreign companies in the disputed area while Somalia was weak. By deploying troops to Kismaayo and Jubba , they wished to ignore the issue and never expected a Somali state was bold enough to challenge. The bold moves by the diaspora and the Somali parliament to bring the issue to the forefront should be applauded by all Somalis. Finally , it was former foreign minister Dr. C/raxman Baile who was outraged and sent the issue to the court after Kenya refused or missed to show up at the arbitration meeting. Also , remember, Kenya is not saying that the sea is their, they are arguing that ;" we should resolve the issue through the conflict resolution forums rather than the international court".