Before I start this piece, I would like to warn the youth and others who keep referring "Alah ha Naxariistee' Siyad Barre, as the nephew of president Farmaajo to stop comparing this men who are different and does not share anything.. They may share clan lineage, but they could not be compared. In Somalia, Siyaad Barre might have been a bad dictator, but in the Somali folklore, he is depicted as a lion and proud man who oversaw the yester years greatness of Somalia . There is a Somali saying that describes the loss of greatness by comparing lions with rabbit or even a fox (Meel Aar ka kacay atoor ama dawaco fadhiisatay) . Farmaajo is far from being fox since the fox is not known to be mischievous in terms of calculation and plotting.
After an election , Somali leaders are usually welcomed throughout Somalia and the diaspora. People greet them with enthusiasm , high expectations and high hopes of finally bringing Somalia out of the darkness. Usually they are given ample opportunity to select and appoint their chosen aides both in military, security and policing. Sometimes, without due diligence, they even throw out the former bureaucrats and replace them with their own men. Since they have the power to hire and fire, people go along with their choices on the hopes that the new Sheriff might bring peace and end the long misery of the nation.
Current president Farmaajo has received the largest support among Somalis after he was elected in February ,2017. Because of the propaganda waged by Amin Amir and others, Farmaajo was presented as a Somali nationalist who want to rescue Somalia by embarking an independent pro-Somalia foreign policy. His opponents were depicted as corrupt oligarchs who could only stay in power through tribal connections and the backing of Ethiopia.
Well, due to a man called Qalbi-Dhagax, that honeymoon only lasted six months. Leaders are tested for now and then, and their characters are revealed by how they confront the problems , either they fold like tin paper or they rise up to the challenge. The first test was the gulf blockade of Qatar which Somalia remained neutral and called for dialogue. Despite the huge pressure from the Saudis ,Somalia stood it's ground ,and that move earned Somalia certain prestige across the Arab world and in the region.
Suddenly, a very strange issue of intrigue, espionage and tribal machinations had appeared from nowhere. An obscure Somali national who was a former member of the Somali armed forces was arrested and abducted in Gaalkacayo. He happen to be a member of the central committee of the ONLF, a tribal Somali movement fighting to liberate Western Somalia from the occupation of the Ethiopian empire. Every empire , including the British empire had dissolved their former colonial countries except Ethiopia. I am one of those who object the name ONLF, and the regional name coined by the tribe who changed Somali Galbeed to Ogadenia. When you asked them about the idea of changing the name, they will tell you that when other Somalis join the struggle we will change and in the meantime this is an international name that could easily understood by international media.
We will leave the name issue in another debate. In the meantime, despite their shortcomings and tribal allegiance, they are the only Somali movement fighting for the liberation of Western Somalia, and for that sacrifice they earned the respect of the Somali people. Also, it should be noted that the border between Somalia and Ethiopia is a provisional boundary that the Somali nation did not recognize yet. Unless Farmaajo want to be the first. Now, in order to sort the facts from fiction, let us examine how this case became the most important event of the Farmaajo presidency. Another important factor that most people do not realize is that the ONLF was one of the early victims of Al-shabaab. As I have stated in these pages , a large segment of Al-shabaab is an intelligence operation deployed and armed by the EThiopian intelligence and others from the Gulf countries. Under Ahmed Godane , some of the largest ONLF bases in Jubba region were destroyed by Al-shabaab, and hundreds of its fighters were killed by Al-shabaab. Many of them had to run for their lives while others joined the new administration of Jubba Land.
It was the first strategy of TPLF to eliminate the Somali clans who were opposed to Ethiopian agenda in Somalia , especially southern Somalia. They did not expect Bay and Bakool, Puntland and Somaliland to give them any resistance to their agenda, so they concentrated to eliminate ONLf and Galmudug community who were the last remaining opposition to their hegemony. By 2011, all ONLF members in Jubba escaped for their lives from the double threat of Ethiopia and Al-shabaab.
Mr. C/hakim Sheekh Muuse , known as Qalbi-Dagax(QD) , had lived in Mogadishu for the last three years with his wife and children. Unlike Puntland, Somaliland or other Somali enclaves, ONLf members , especially the political wing, has lived freely in Mogadishu, Nairobi, Djibouti, London and America. Here in Alberta, Canada, they have offices, and from time to time, they hold rallies and conferences.
In August 23, Mr. QD was abducted by Galmudug security forces in Gaalkacayo. Before the Galmudug guys could trade Qalbi-Dhagax and gain some political capital from Ethiopia, Somehow, they changed their mind and contacted the federal intelligence service in Mogadishu. Rather than deliver themselves, they decided to transfer the guy to Mogadishu.
If this was a government operation or a government protocol was followed , the appropriate authority , especially the ministry of interior or security would have handled the issue . If he was a danger to the security of the country or connected to Al-shabaab , as stated by the communique issued by the cabinet, he should have been investigated by proper channels of the government. Yet all indications point that this was an operation by small group of Ethiopian operatives seeking to cash in for this crime . Credible reports indicate that Mustafa Dhuxulow accompanied the prisoner all the way to Baidoa and transferred his catch personally. If this administration was acting like a government, the cabinet meeting would have taken not after the fact, but before the transfer of the prisoner.
Without informing the proper channels of the government, especially the interior ministry and national security, they were approached by the Ethiopian intelligence who were on a mission to embarrass the leadership and weaken the resolve of the Somali people. A small group of tribally connect people and the Ethiopian ambassador decided to take the matters on their own hand . It was reported that Certain members of the house of elders have met Farmaajo and cautioned him about the case of the prisoner but he did not do anything to slow down the process or think about the consequences. After he is the president and all blame should be on his shoulders.
Deliberate mistakes after the fact.
After Qalbi-Dhagax was handed to Ethiopia, the Somali government refused to answer any of the questions surrounding the issue. The president did not realize that this was a bad precedent that never happened under any leader of the republic throughout its history. He did not grasp how history will record him as the first president who allowed the unlawful abduction of Somali citizens by a hostile regime that has maimed this nation for the last 30 years. Regional enclaves and greedy Somali tribes traded other Somalis in order to get favours from Abyssinia. Over 90% of Somalis , both at home and abroad had objected this abduction and transfer of a Somali political activist who has not harmed any Somalis or other innocent people in the region.
Yet despite the overwhelming objections of Somalis, Farmaajo and his prime minister had decided , just like Trump, who doubles down when caught in a bad situation to fabricate evidence and insist on their wrongdoing. Rather than accept the mistake , apologize and correct, he went to the offensive. He chose to parrot the Ethiopian line and dismissed the voice of the Somali people everywhere. It was a choice between Ethiopia and it's stooges or the Somali people, and he chose Ethiopia. In fact , it wasn't even a debate to which side to go.
The Somali people inside the country have almost nothing other than Allah and their fragile country. They just suffered a serious drought; a merciless terrorist group is murdering them in markets and streets, and the only thing that left for them is the pride of being free in a war torn country. The pride of being free to roam the land of the nomads. They did not expect from the new president to build hospitals, schools or water wells, but they expected from him to repair the psychological damage the Somali nation has suffered for the last twenty five years in the hands of Ethiopia and its proxies, whether it is warlords, criminals, religious extremists and tribal chauvinists inside every corner of Somalia. This was the first opportunity to rise up and said no to the weak, old, ruthless colonials of the region.
Also, another issue that can not be overlooked is the legacy of the abduction issue in mogadishu just over ten years ago. IN 2006, A group of warlords led by Mohamed Qanyare which included Bashir Raage, Cabdi Waal, Xaaraan ku Naax and many others were contracted by the CIA to abduct certain extremist members of the Islamic court which triggered the takeover of Southern Somalia by the Islamic Courts Union which eventually begotten the deadly Al-shabaab terrorists. We are a nation that scattered around the world and in the horn of Africa. In the sixties and early seventies ,Somali independence movements and freedom seeking individuals left Jigjiga, Djibouti and Wajeer. Artists, playwrights composers and football players left and landed Hargeisa and Mogadishu. Among them were Sanyab X. Baxasan, Maandeeq, Cismaan Askari, Ismaaciil Gariile of Somali football star and even officers.
Just like the president before him, he decided to ride the political weights of Ethiopia. In the early months of his administration, he indicated his unwillingness to visit Ethiopia by appearing to be independent, yet his own prime ministers had traveled there more than three times for the last five months. During the cabinet deliberations, the interior minister and others strongly objected the manner this matter was handled and disagreed the false and fraudulent premises the prime minister used the border agreement signed last year between Galmudug and Somali Ethiopian regional government. During that conflict the Liyuu police has murdered innocent people within the Somali Republic. In order to reason with the evil killer of the region, Cabdi Illey, Mr. C/kariim Gulled took with him the leader of Jubba region Ahmed Madoobe, some OG elders and went to Jigjiga. It wasn't an agreement, in fact it was a visit to beg the killer to stop killing innocent rural people in the region and an offer to coperate on the border issues.
THis is not the first time a Somali regional leader or tribal leaders went to Illey and beg for mercy. Last year in July 2016, after skirmishes with local Qat traders in the Gaashaamo district , the Liyuu police entered the Jama Dubad village and started shooting indiscriminately killing 42 people. Somali people everywhere raised their voice and condemned the massacre but nothing changed. Eventually, members of that community went to Jigjiga with gifts and begged Cabdi Illey to stop the killing and the abuse . So, the Mudug agreement is not that different than others signed by other Somali tribes in order to save themselves by Liyuu police unleashed by Ethiopia through Cabdi Iley. The main issue is why rush the transfer of QD and snub the Somali people.
If you remove the family connection and the tribal connotations, Prime minister Khayre has shown to be capable man of running the government. He is one of the strong prime minister we have seen for a long time. The Qalbi-Dhagax affair has destroyed his reputation among the public and his arrogance to force the issue by refusing to accept his mistake and repent made him venerable for the attacks of the opposition.
If you look the cabinet communique clearing the air for the Qalbi-Dhagax issue , they specifically targeted the Galmudug opposition groups by trying to shift the blame squarely on that community and former minister C/kariim Guuleed. Rather than rectify the mistake, they tried to ask Cabdi Iley and Ethiopia for help, and both the Khayre and Ethiopian government used the Jigjiga issue to further their game. They issued identical press releases, and by blaming the whole affair on the former government members, Mr. Khayre was trying to ally his clan family to the Ethiopian side. By using the Ethiopian ambassador, military and political capital, his community and their leaders are trying to gain power in Mogadishu and southern somalia to marginalize other communities who might challenge his office. In other words, this major national issue was just reduced by Khayre as a conflict between Galmudug and Dayniile( Is riix riixa beelaha Soomaaliyeed lama dhex gelin karo arin qaran oo ka turjumaysa masiirka iyo madax banaanida Soomaalida).
Galmudug community is more important than Ethiopia.
The Galmudug community as was expected was not happy about the appointment of Prime minister Khayre. They helped defeat Hassan Sheikh and after the departure of "Reer Puntland" and Hassan Sheikh from the power , they thought that there will be a new re-alignment of the Somali political power structure. By using illogical excuses, they were denied the Galmudug the privilege of being appointed prime minister. Some say Hassan Sheikh advised Farmaajo to bypass both the Abgaal community and Galmudug who were both fighting for the premiership. That is just absurd. Hassan sheikh and Shariff Ahmed community was ruling Somalia for the last eight years and were replaced by a new president. As decent Somalis , who were always pro-Somali state, they need to rest and give others a chance to rule. If you were ruling 8 years, why would you have to compete for this position?, why not give others a chance?. It was just an excuse to sideline and deny the Galmudug community the premiership. Personally , i do not believe that anyone one has the right to be appointed prime minister, but for the healthy cohesiveness of the nation, everyone including Dayniile community has the privilege to be appointed prime minister . It would have also brought together those who overthrew Siyaad Barre and the Gedo Community. It would have been a political harmony and a match made in heaven. Yet, the president has the right to appoint whomever he wishes , It is the most important part of the being president.
When C/raxman Baadiyow left the campaign and came to this town where his family is located , we did ask the chances of the candidates who were running for president. At the time, he thought Shariif Ahmed was the toughest challenger to Hassan Sheikh. One of my Galmudug friends , who was sitting beside me , asked and said, how about Farmaajo? . Before Baadiyow answered the question, I said ( Waar Farmaajo Aamin Caamir iyo H/g cid aan ahayn oo hadal haysa anigu ma maqal, waxa Muqdisho u soo bxayna waa idinka ayaan u malaynayaa, dadkii meesha wada fadhiyeyna waa wada qoslayn) other than you guys , I do not think Farmaajo has a great chance of winning. The moral of the story is that the Galmudug guys thought by electing Farmaajo they would gain the premiership. Also, as confirmed by Dr. Baadiyow, candidate Farmaajo has openly allied himself with the Daljir group, including former president Shariif Ahmed, Ahmed Faqi , Daljir leader Hassan Macalin and C/karim Jama. Just few nights before the ballot, he and Daljir party promised one another to appoint the other in case they become victorious. They were both working overtime to defeat Hassan Sheikh. Dr. Baadiyow also added that by betraying that trust and appointing his in laws, Mr. Farmaajo has created opposition within his government before he's even started to govern. That was what Dr. Baadiyow said at the time, but since the Somali people were celebrating , I didn't want to mention and rain on their parade.
The Galmudug politicians have the right to be the opposition or to hold him accountable because of his earlier promise and betrayal, but that does not mean they want to destroy his government. Other than few loud mouths in the diaspora , the overwhelming people of Galmudug community want peace and business in Mogadishu. I did talk to many of them and they told me that, " the time for war is over in Somalia" .They must also know that elections have consequences and those who won must be given a chance to govern.
In politics when you have a goal or a destination to reach you must have a backbone and willingness to take the heat. As they say ," the dog barks but the caravan goes. The problem is that this prime minister and his group can not handle an opposition, and they started targeting that community. When Ahmed Siilaanyo defeated Rayaale, that was not enough, but he started marginalizing the AWdal community, and the people rose up, and in the diaspora the Awdal State movement started. Somalis would not tolerate to be targeted by those who are in power. What Galmudug doing is political pressure. Isn't what Puntland did when they lost the premiership to "Reer Gedo" in the early presidency of Hassan Sheikh?. They did agitate and put pressure to the government until they gained the post of prime minister. Even some Somalis from Jubba region had protested Hassan Sheikh in Minneapolis while meeting the Somali community. The Galmudug guys are doing the same thing, by asserting pressure to affect change, but I will suggest to our Galmudug brothers to be loyal opposition by playing with the rules of the game and eventually replace Khayre or even Farmaajo.
Last September, 2016, when certain militia in Gaalkacayo had thrown some mortars in Puntland security base where some Americans were present, the Americans mistakenly targeted a contingent of Galmudug soldiers and killed 22 soldiers. They accused the Puntland intelligence of tipping the Americans to the wrong people. It is a well known phenomena in Afghanistan were rival groups use American air power to target their local enemies which sometimes targets family weddings and other gatherings. Just last month, an Al-shbaab group used and attacked the government forces from farms owned by some Galmudug family. The government forces with the American air support has attacked the farm, but unfortunately the militants have already left and the only people caught on the air raid was innocent farmers. They do not want to be labelled as the enemies of the government by Ethiopia and Khayre. They will not accept to be cornered by a government who want to blame for their failures and relies Ethiopia for its survival.
Ethiopia is an old colonial power who is using different cards for every government while acting as benevolent. Now , they want to subdue H/G community in order to flex its muscle inside Mogadishu and south central Somalia. They had conquered many regions of the country without resistance , including Hargeisa, Garowe, Baidoa and Kismaayo. The only remaining place is Mogadishu , Hir-Shabeele and some pockets in central Somalia. In fact, in Hir-Shabeelle the leading candidate is pro-Abessinia. "H/G ama marba reer haddii Ethiopia hoosta geliso dalka ayaa Difaacaya, uma jeedo keligood ayaa difaacaya, laakiin kuwa dhaqdhaqaaqaya haddii laga takhaluso sow la ina qabsan maayo"
Have you seen any Somali citizens protesting in Garoowe , Baidoa, Gaalkacayo,or Hargeisa about the abduction of Qalbi-Dhagax? No, there were zero noise. The Somali public in those regions are either afraid of Ethiopian collaborators in their towns or they were sensitized and trained to protect their tribal interest by ignoring national issues. In Puntland the government released statement applauding the federal government for their handling of the Qalbi-Dhagax affair. It is the same government who objected the Somali neutrality of the gulf, yet acting quickly on the Ethiopian defence. Who could blame them?, no one. They are just trying to out do the Dayniile guys who are getting some political capital from Ethiopia. If the Galmudug government were trying to hand off Qalbi0Dhagax to Ethiopia, who could blame them? No one. There is Cabdi Iley on the loose, there is the border issues with Puntland; on the other hand there is a religious anarchists called Ehlu Sunna in Galgaduud who are backed by Ethiopia, and finally, they fear to be targeted by the Americans and the Khayre government.
Well , this is what is left of the Somali republic. Regional puppets set up by Ethiopia and others to claim temporary tribal supremacy while their own citizens are starving from Zaylac to Luuq.
Now, what is the solution ( Qalad dhac, hase ahaatee maxaa tala ah).
Yet, the public have been betrayed by their government after they ignored their plea
We still do not know the real fact behind Qalbi-Dhagax affair. Some even have suggested that he could have been an Ethiopian intelligence asset in Mogadishu and southern Somalia. Usually in espionage cases , governments would do anything to get back their double agents in order to protect the secrets the operative have, so it could have been an urgent move by Ethiopia before the guy spilled the beeans.
Here is my advice to the government and the parliament.
1-Bringing down the government does not serve the interest of the Somali people.
A big mistake has happened, and in democracy, usually someone has to pay by that mistake. I wish we had some low level intelligence bureaucrat who would have taken the fall and we would all had moven on, yet the Somalia of today is fragile and can not pay high price for this mistake. I did mention the quarrel or "Xadhig Jiid" between Puntland and Hassan Sheikh for appointing the Gedo boys for the premiership. At the same time Hassan Sheikh was pushing some unpopular policies regarding regional governments. That gridlock lasted almost two years and the president appointed three prime ministers in that period. It undermined the national agenda of the country and for that "Xadhigjiid" we, the Somali people paid a higher price.
Prime minister Khayre, until the Qalbi-Dhagax episode, seemed to be a capable and accountable man. I believe that he could do better if he slows down and finds some good advisers who could help him deliberate carefully when he faces crucial issues.
God forbid if parliament moves to sack him , things would get worse for the country. If a motion is tabled to sack him, the government will spend the next four months to fight and defeat that motion. The little money that supposed to pay the soldiers will be used for " spesa politica" or vote buying. The only people who would get rich would be the "Xildhibaano". If they become successful , it will take another three months to appoint and form a new cabinet. At minimum seven months will be wasted. All the security and other gains the government achieved in Mogadishu will be lost. Almost everyone agrees that the security situation of the capital is improving every day, and the small incremental gains are felt by everyone. Pacifying soldiers have reached Hiiraan and could secure major town.
In other words, despite the mistakes of the Khayre government, sacking the government will not resolve the problem, but could aggravate. If Farmaajo starts changing prime ministers at this early stage , it will be a disaster and a new start from zero . also remember, prime ministers are pushed out by the president not useful idiots sitting in the chamber.As they say, do not change horses during the raise.
Keep prime minister Khayre, but he must be put on small leash. His powers must be reduced and other government agencies must be allowed to do their jobs without micromanaging . Mr. Khayre, If you can't assemble the cabinet in emergency situations , you must form a security cabinet that comprises the top security ministers of interior, NISA, and the army and police.Furthermore, in order to judge someone , you must allow him to work and perform.( Hooyada ayaaba ilmaha sagaal billod caloosha ku sida, si loo qiimeeyo waa in loo ogolaada in uu shaqeeyo). I would give him at least two years to produce.
2-The inner circle of the president must change, especially security counsel people.
This could be a hypothetical drama from my side , but imagine when the issue of Qalbi-Dhagax appeared and how the president approached. The man who is sitting in his right i hand is the national security adviser of the president who is from Dayniile community,; on the left is Prime minister Khayre, and on the front, facing the president is Mustafa Dhuxulow , a parliament member, who is the interlocutor between the government and Ethiopia. Two blocks from Villa Somalia, the Ethiopian ambassador who is also from Dayniile clan is on the phone, and finally , general Gabre of IGAD office. is listening the conversation. Isn't that a scary thought.
The national security issue can not be left alone for friends and family. The president could not get a divergent opinions from the same family and his in laws. Most president aspire to assemble people with different outlook in life and opinion. I do believe that the president needs people from Boorama, Boosaaso and Buule Burde on that table in order to get the best possible advice. You do not need yes men or family members to sort out these issues. So, Mr. Farmaajo should start immediately to hire new group of adviser from different walk of life.
3- Ignore the tribal elite , but listen their communities and their supporters.
The tribal elite may agitate for power, favor or personal interest, but they do not represent the public. I n Somalia, the war between the elite usually transforms and engulfs the innocent communities, but as the leaders of the nation, you must not fall inside their trap. Some might feel targeted, so as the prime minister , you must reach out and reassure them. You must nurture those who felt being left alone. You must feel comfortable among them, especially the opposition.
4- Stop cozying up to Ethiopia.
The Somali people want to get their pride by standing up to Ethiopia. It is our Vietnam syndrome ,and the only way we could be cured is to see a proud president and prime minister who should be concentrating on our demands and needs , not the other way around.
Khayre and Farmaajo should know that they could not rely Ethiopia to rule this country. Why were Somalis had thrown out Hassan Sheikh if Ethiopia is the power behind the throne.
According a report written by Horseed Media in late 2016, Ethiopia was trying to impose Hassan sheikh to the Somali people: "Ethiopia is desperately trying to get Hassan Sheikh Mohamud re-elected as a president of Somalia. The evidence of this effort was encapsulated in a recent report by a think-tank affiliated with Ethiopia’s Foreign Ministry and external intelligence. Ethiopia’s renewed agenda goes against the wishes of the overwhelming majority of the Somalis and their members of the Federal Parliament, as we witnessed in the recent parliamentary leadership election, where President Mohamud’s choice for first and second deputies of the House of the People were soundly defeated.There’s a simple logic to Ethiopia’s calculus: always work against the wishes of the Somali people by trying to impose your leadership choice upon them.
If that is my advice to the government, how about , " we the people"
The next Somali movement to restore the country should be totally different than what we imagined just few years ago or even 12 months ago. The so called regional governments are weak, corrupt and puppets of the neighboring countries. They could not last even a year without the protection of those who created them. Some like Puntland might be little bit stable than others, but not stable enough to resist a well organized Somali state that does not condone the false agenda of the federal states. Decent Somalis every where must start a new movement to eliminate the dirty pounds established by Somali tribes to impede the emergence of the Somali nation. They do not serve anymore neither the interest of their inhabitants nor that of the larger Somali nation. Look just at Hir-Shabelle regional government, it was easy to dissolve since they did not have a foreign government backing.
Furthermore, no sane Somali leader would allow the formation of huge junks of the country as a state by a Somali or the combination of Somali clans that will hinder the stability, coherence and progress of the Somali state. Of course you could still function as a federal system, but you can not allow huge tribal enclaves to threaten the larger Somali state. Even democratic nation avoid sectarian politics by raising the threshold to form political parties that does not represent the whole country. Clannish and sectarian ideas within the republic must be weakened and eliminated. Keep the nation federal and the 18 regions of the past. Rather than create big clan regions that will be a base to weaken the larger state , delegate the public service to the 18 regions which in turn will eliminate these fat presidents, parliaments and their 60 ministers. We can not have six or seven presidents. This nation will have one leader and a unified leadership.
Haddii Illah yidaahdo waan baabinaynaa dhamaan kuwa hadda samaysan , oo Soomalilandna ku jirto. Dawlad goboladu khater ayey ku yihin jiritaanka dadk Soomaaliyeed. Waa in aynu meel oga soo wada jeesanaa. Mudo ayaanu , u dulqaadanaynay oo aanu islahyn , Dawladla'aanta ayey dhaamaan iyo Wax walba ma Muqdishu ayaynu u agi. Farmaajo waxan ka codsan lahaa in uu sii wiiqo si kooxda ka dambeysaa ay uga takhalusto.
Waa ayo hogaamiyaha ogolaanaya in qabiil dhul xidho. Maya.
Few weeks ago when the issue of Qalbi-dhagax appeared in the media , I sat down with a Somali political scientist who has both extensive experience and huge archives of research in the Somali issues.
Stay tune for that interview soon.....
