So, it is a plan. Even the wise Haaji is encouraging cutting ties among families just like North Korea.

Holac, He is not politician. He should have isolated the Jeegaan.

Certainly Qudhan jecel is just like his counterpart Faysal. Faysal is targeting both the economic stability and the character of Awdal and Borama. It is a well calculated ploy to put wedge between the Awdal community and other Somalis who chose Borama as a welcoming place. I do not really get where this desperation from Faysal WAraabe is coming from. Maybe he knows something we do not know. Minister Qudhan jecel, the students are fine and they should stay where they are.We need them to stay there, and w want others to come.

Furthermore, why the Tigray politicians oppose a peace with Eritrea?. I think Eritrea being a player will diminish the influence of the Tigray . Besides , it is EPLF who thought everything to the lesser Tigray

OO, You really getting my huge respect on the issues of geopolitics. In this pages , you said it is like early 20th century in the horn for powers to scramble for influence, especially for the Somali region. You did mention Yamamoto visiting both Addis, Asmara and Djibouti. Now, Is it possible for both Ethiopia, Eritrea and Egypt to be all under the leadership of the money boys of the gulf?

Any way , I like the calm demeanor of Xaaji Xanjuf to hold the party line. Soo dhawoow.

Actually Somalis are not even 15% of the overall voters. Ahmed Huseen, the minister got strong support from the Somalis during the primaries race within his party, but to win the district you need the vote of cross section of the residents. At the federal campaign, every riidding is around a hundred thousand residents. You must get the support of the other 80% residents. Just Wait when the new generation of Somalis take the stage. Despite the bad news, there are a lot of over acheiving Somalis.

Maakhiri Ishaad ka riday. The state collapsed in Mogadishu and the army was disbanded by Cumar Carte. They just rode some Ethiopian tanks and took over an empty land. case closed. Anyway, we do not have time for the old staff, let us focus for the future.

Xaaji, I thought Muuse was in America in 1983-85 . After taking advantage of the Somali state scholarship, he just went straight to Ethiopia and joined others. I know some Somali army members who know him, and they told me that he was always one of those " Qof Uqdadaysan" even in the early years. Besides , those who know the horrors of war do not rush to it. Only chicken hawks would talk tough. Tough guys carry a big stick and talk slowly. He is probably known as paramilitary guy who could abuse those who were not armed. Yet, rather than repair the disappearing institutions and revive the economy, war is the answer for Muuse and company. Faysal might love the land but one must have dignity. If things get tough he might create a civil war. The Puntlanders are playing by the Somali honor codes. When the Kids from Libya were denied to land in Hargeisa, they were welcomed, dinned and hosted in Garoowe despite the war. Xaaji Karaamada Habraha illaliya.

The Tigray military leaders who get rich of the war are removed by Abiy, There were generations of Tigray opinion makers who accuse everything that goes wrong in Ethiopia to the so called " Jahba Shacbiya" of Eritrea. Just like our own OO, they talk daily about "Shacbiya" and Egypt. Yet, the biggest move to realign the horn of Africa and their strategic ports are coming from America. Soon, the Eritrean embargo by the west will be lifted and Eritrea is joining the UAE led coalition. Djibouti has been already discouraged to bring anymore Chinese companies, and the American military and Israel will settle in Eritrean ports. If things go well Ethiopia might repair relations and start using the Assab port. Accepting Eritrean sovereignty on the border was probably one of the conditions to restart rapprochement. The egotistical jealousy between the cousins in the north could be over. Assias Afework has no issue with Oromo led Ethiopia and he needs to open up and make some money. There is a lot of puffing and huffing from the Tigray media and some Amhara people who are disappointed to leave Badame after losing a 100,000 casualty between 1998-2000. We Somalis must learn one or two things from the tough mountainaires of Eritrean army and people. Meles Zenawi had deployed a 150,000 army to overwhelm and take Asmara and overthrow the president. The tough Eritreans had machine gunned them when they tried to storm their lines with tens of thousands of soldiers.. Actually in 2001, I watched a video from the front by the Eritreans who showed me a scene similar to the trenches of the first world war. Since that defeat or stalemate, the Ethiopians never tried again. Also the tiny state of four or five million people had suffered a lot of casualties but kept their independence. The horn is changing and we Somalis are watching for the new scramble for the ports. Last week, the Somali leaders were all aboard the UN provided airplanes and go to Baidoa for conference between different countries of Somalia and the one in Mogadishu, al baby sitted by foreigners..Rather than chase the Hodan or Kaaraan gangs, my soldiers would have marched to Lawyacado and Kismaayo.

Things are getting crazy in Hargeisa and the only option could be a regime change. As I wrote in these pages after the election of 2017, Muuse Biixi and company are a disaster for all, yet I never thought that things will unravel within a year. Folks, in order to save the people and all involved, the parliament should remove Muuse before he is removed by other dangerous means. A regime change is a must. I would advise my Habro brethren to transfer power To C/raxman Zaylici immediately and call new elections in six months to avoid the future collapse of Somaliland and the relocation of Al-shabaab to Somaliland. Waa digniin.

In a desperate move, Faysal Waraabe is targeting Puntland students at Camud University in Borama. We know things are tough for the Hargeisa regime, but no one expected them to go that low. There are reports about Some families from Puntland leaving Somaliland, yet I never thought in a million years that Somalis in Borama would be targeted by the Habro politicians. The question is: What would they do if they lose Laascaanod. Besides, according to Faysal , Puntland is a super power that is running the shaw in Somalia. We know *****oco are shrewd politicians , but to say they are the power behind every thing is more than exaggeration. Walee Puntalnd laga baqay. After the reckless statements of warlord Faysal, Camoud University took action and responded immediately. Every Somali student or family from Puntaland in Borama is save. Dhulkoodii ayey Joogaan Faysal iyo Jeegaana waxba ma yeeli Karaan.

By the way , the Hargeisa airport manager is really irresponsible and out right lier. When he was asked about the pilot telling him about fuel shortage, he said, " When planes are short or no fuel, they proclaim , May day , May day". Can you imagine that?. Planes call May Day just before they crash landing or ships are engulfed under storm. This man should be fired.

Yet, the only good news that could come from the American orders in that the North East and the north West enclaves will be told to stop the Tukaraq war and fight Al-shabaab together. Amar ayaa la soo diri, tuugtii fadhiisan weydayna , amarka ayaey qaadan.

Suldaanka, You are right this time. The so called UN had resolved very few conflicts in their lifetime. They spent in Somalia 55 billion since 1991 and nothing to show.

Of course. The Americans will be asking Ethiopia and others to take over the overall security including controlling the sea lanes. We are going back to 1994 when then president Bill Clinton gave the go ahead contract to Meles Zenaw to run Somaliai.Two weeks ago, even the new guy Abiy Ahmed said that " we should not withdraw African forces from Somalia". It is the only trick in the book . If you want to make billions and spare America the bad news and media publicity of soldiers dying in poor dirt Africa, you hire the cheap Ethiopian and African forces who die by the dozens while making few dollars. Ethiopian economy and foreign currency is declining. The Tigray elite had cleaned the banks. They must pay the Chinese and the European loans and the shortest and cheapest way to make money is the war on terror in Somalia .Djibouti Uganda and others will follow. Waa jug meeshaada Joog. The kids in Villa Somalia are taking the info under the table. They are hundred percent on board while showing us their false independence. It is 2014 all over again.

OO, We know he is Ethiopian but that doesn't mean he has free hand to transfer Djibouti to Ethiopia. For guys like you, the geopolitics of the horn might have started in 1991, but in the seventies, we fought for Djibouti to join the union but, Siyad Barre made a deal with French and allowed them to declare independent country. Did you hear the poem: " Xeebta Djabouti ee Soomaali laga Xaday Mar hadaan Xagaa Tagay maxaa la igu soo xidhay. Look, have you ever seen anywhere in the real world, even in conflict zones of Afghanistan, Yemen,or Rwanda , where provinces and cities discuss with the federal or central government about military issues. Only in Somalia, thanks to Ethiopia. THe way I see , the government of Mogadishu is meeting the state of Puntland, the city of Baidoa and Kismaayo, Gamudug state and Kismaayo city after America and probably it's surrogate Ethiopia called them all for emergency situation. Reliable sources say that America is convinced that Al-shabaab is about to take over the country and they want status quo. The head of Nato and European command general Curtis Scaparrotti had demanded that the American forces in African should be widthrown and deployed to eastern Europe to stop the rising Russian power in Europe. So, they would be probably asking Ethiopia and others to take over the security of Somalia for the next three years. Bill Clinton did the same thing in 1994. Rather than withdrawal foreign forces and transfer the security to the Somali army, more foreign troops will be coming and Farmaajo will be busy appointing judges and other loyalists while the country is being taken over by foreign forces. The more things change the same remain the same in Somalia. OO, you are right .I should not be even talking to Djibouti and others that you want to swallow. You have dismembered me already. "Aan ooyee Albaabka ii xidha". Maalinba mid faras cad lagu sido ayuunbaa la inoo keenaa. Waxa aanu toban sano raadinaynaa, qof madaxweyne ah oo Program iyo siyaasad dalka lagu qabta wata. Maalinba mid fras cad la soo saaray ayaa la inoo keenaa.

Oo stop addressing Djibouti like your colony or twin brothers. Somalia is down doesn’t mean Djibouti can do what ever it wishes including allying with Ethiopia. you can convince them to do many things at the moment but as soon as we rise we will fight to death to stop Ethiopia taking Djibouti. The fat dictator may deceive those who are in Jowhar or Baidoa, but not us. I sweat that we will invade from Loyacafo and take our country back. Djibouti is missing from us just like Somali Galbeed and if it were up to me, before I start with Cabdi Illey , I would stop tCumar Ghelle to transfer our country to Ethiopia. Besides, the majority of Djiboutians are starving any way ,and the business deals are shared by oligarchs. Do as much as you can while we are down, but Djibouti is ours and even some people in Hargeisa are saying that the Djibouti issue must be added to the Somaliweyn issue and I agree with them.

Finally Puntland had found men who could speak like Faysal Waraabe. qudhaan jecel is one.

We are just talking about is scenarios that could happen. They already control Bay, Kismaay and Hiiraan. Yet, they might seek a contract from the west to patrol the sea lanes.. Saalax, some of the Somali pirates were organized just like foreign controlled terroriists to attract foreign navies . As we speak the so called Somali pirates do not even have a sea worthy mother ship. Those who are inside the Mogadishu bubble are happy about their situation. Hundreds of programs and projects are funded through the UN, the world bank and others. Every minister is busy applying these funds and in terms of security we see tribal military’s clashes weekly. just last week the Mogadishu governor and large number members of parliament went to Ethiopia to celebrate the ethnic federal day or something like that

Only Somali political fools do not know, but Ethiopia already have six ships docked between Mombasa and Djibouti. Most of their weapons procurement is carried by their ships to Djibouti. In 2005 there was an open debate among the Amhara intellectuals about gaining a port for the 60 million landlocked Ethiopia. It is also strange they go from 60 to 70 and now 100 million within 13 years. Most Ethiopian intellectuals are eager to take over Djibouti. They already have a 100,000 Ethiopian residents who run restaurants ,nightclubs and even guard the homes of the Djibouti elite. The ideal plan is to occupy just ten years and relocate a million population to Djibouti, or force them to accept a confederation with Ethiopia and take over the country without firing a bullet while the lazy Qat chewing Djiboutin is busy chasing the cheap Ethiopian ladies. Ethiopian insiders that I talk to told me that the new leadership, Abiy Ahmed, Shiferow Shegatu and others are more Ethiopian than their ethnic pronouns attached to them. The only people who can challenge them are Somalis who could see the big picture. This week Mr. Abiy announced that Africans could enter Ethiopia without visa. They expect both Kenya and Somalia to follow. Now , what we got is a federal government of Somalia using all its powers and legitimacy to chase the Hawlwadaag boys.in Mogadishu.They must leave this town for the local people to manage and govern the larger country, or wait for even for the world to build the country for them. Xageed ku aragtay dawlado hal magaalo rabta in ay nabadeeyaan toban sanadood. After two full years if this guys can’t reach Afgooye, we must prepare to find a new leadership.

One thing is for sure . The war between Muuse Biixi and the United Nations had begun. THe chartered plain belonged to the UN. They did send their flight info few days ago since the young returnees were almost a week in Mogadishu, yet the airport refused them to land for bogus reasons. there are probably 500 people in Tukaraq affected by the war and 150,000 throughout Somaliland by cyclone Sanger, yet the UN said “ nine thousand in cyclone disaster and 150,000 in TUkaraq which is reverse accounting’s. This deliberate omission by the UN reprentative is a game on itself. if you add that with the al-shabaab attack in Galgala , one must think that things are shifting . If I were Ina Biixi, I would seek peace immediately before the war moves to Sannag mountains and Al-shabaab relocates to Somaliland. yaa garanaya ninkii yidhi “Anigoo wax dili kara duco qaadan maayee , qoriga keepka qabo.

Muuse is already sending appeals to the international community and the regional governments. The problem is "Beesha Lixaad" never resolves any thing. He is even talking to Farmaajo, but Farmaajo can not help him. I did said while ago that C/weli want to keep the war in order to win re-election, but at the moment the Tukaraq issue is even bigger than C/weli Gaas himself. This war has transformed as the people's war. Both the people of Sool and Puntland want to keep this war until Sool is recovered. The conditions to stop the war from Puntland is getting hard, and they already communicated through third party that Somaliland must vacate Laascaanood in order to stop the war. For the last ten years there was perception among the Garaad community that Puntland and their leaders were not interested recovering Laascaanood, and there were a suspicion of collusion between Somaliland and Puntalnd. When C/weli Gaas was given the power to nominate the Khaatumo members of the federal parliament things got worse and Galaydh used that to send a message to his supporters. Puntlad dagaal ma galayse waxay rabtaa in ay magaca iyo xildhibaanada Sool awood kaga raadsato federalka ayaa dadka reer sool ka dhaadhacday. When Puntland shed blood and came fighting that was enough to convince Reer Sool. Furthermore, the Tigray policy of pressuring her client regions to keep the status quo has probably collapsed. Muuse was probably given the go ahead by Ethiopia in early Januray, but that Wayaane order has collapsed in Ethiopia in March of 2018. In Africa , usually the power goes to the man at the top and in Ethiopia Abiy Ahmed is consiladiting power already. The wife of Meles Zanawi was kicked out of the party and her assets were stripped. Last week at the Djibouti Ethiopian border $130 million dollars loaded in a van was captured at the border. Most of the looted money used to go through Jijiga and Wajaale and then transferred by Dahabshill to Nairobi and Dubai. It was one of the major reasons Illey was kept at the money route to Wajaale. There is huge crackdown in Ethiopia of the looting and money laundering of the former rulers. There is huge network of money laundering from Ethiopia, Djibouti, Hargeisa and Mogadishu. Every Somali leader in Mogadishu somehow is involved directly or indirectly. It is one of the reasons Hassan Sheikh has allowed the Hargeisa elite to keep the status quo. Preliminary reports already indicate that Farmaaj is on board and his men are well connected to Hargeisa. Muuse had already rejected the UN envoy before the conflict started and could not face him again with a appeal for cease fire. So, he is talking to the American embassy in Nairobi. Abiy Ahmed led Ethiopia has no time about these issues. .His best hope is to negotiate directly with Puntland, but since hubris and boating is the order of the day in Hargeisa, he will lose Laacaanood through war of attrition that will drain both resources and life. As history has shown in Somalilland , the later leader is always worse than his predecessor( midba midka uu ka dambeeyo wuu ka sii liita oo uu ka xun yahay). The Hargeisa mayor is already collecting powder, rise and other stable foods from the neighborhoods for the war effort. With sky rocketing infliation , war is the worst thing to start at this stage. Well, what do we know? Good luck if you can flashout the uprising of the whole population that is united for the first time since 2004.

Folks, it is Ramadan and in this sacred month we all try to avoid inflaming conflicts and sensitive issues. I for one tried to refrain to discuss the Tukaraq war in great details for the last week or so. Yet , it is our duty to warn and analyze this war in an objective manner. Taleex and laascanood are ingrained in our modern history. Both Taleex and Laascaanood have a very important part of the modern history of Somalia. There were historical events that had huge impact to the direction of Somali for the last hundred years. It was 1920 when the Darwiish movement was defeated by the British. The British used modern weapons and airplanes to decimate the modern Somali independent movement after 21 year of struggle between 1899--1920. That defeat of the Darwiish in Tallex and the one in Laafoole in the hand of the Italians against Sheekh Hassan Barsame and others in 1924 ,opened a new page for the colonial powers of Italy, Britain and Abbesinia in Somalia. That struggle had showed that the fiercely independent Somali nomad can not be be caged or colonized without heavy price from the colonials. These days we see some nostalgic Somalis about the colonial period yet, from 1920-1960, the British never developed or created an economy for the region, nor offered any technical training to lift people out of poverty. Faarah Omar, one of the Somalis who were more educated than most described the colonial administration after the second world war as " Deaf and Dumb". The British opened the first schools as late as 1948. just as 1920 was a crucial year that changed Somalia forever, another event in Laascaanood also had a different impact on the country. In 1969, almost 49 years after Taleex bombing , the second president of Somalia C/rashiid C. Sharmaarke was assassinated in Laascaanood by one of his bodyguards.That event and the succession quarrel that followed, paved the way for the military to take over the country. That take over had changed both the direction and the character of Somalia for many years to come. Now, exactly 49 years later in 2018, another war is going brewing in a small town called Tukaraq. This is probably a tribal war, yet it could have a great repercussions for Somalia and its future .The protagonists of this war are probably ignorant of the historical nature of this skirmishes, but the Tukaraq war of 2018 will shape the unchangeable borders of the country. Usually, the biggest changes of the world takes place through war. A tribal war that might end tribal administrations. There are two characters that makes this as a tribal war. First, the nature of the battle and the confrontation between armies makes this rather a tribal skirmish than a war among states. Tribes usually fight about three to four hours maximum. A gun mounted pickup truck might wage an offensive and over run the defensive positions. The other group would mount a counter attack and push back the other side. While the technicals retreat or charge, most of the casualties are the foot soldiers walking. JUst like the war between Caydiid and Cali Mahdi in the early nineties, no one takes new ground. As many of you had pointed out, poor soldiers will die , yet things might not change on the ground. In 2006, during the war between the Islamic Courts and the invading Ethiopian forces, a fervent Somali was touting the ability of the forces of the " Maxakamado' to confront their enemies. To his disappointment, I told him that since these people are non state actors they can not sustain a prolonged war so, i expect the Ethiopians to defeat them in two or three weeks. Established states could fight 18 hours or more with constant reinforcements and ready made logistics. For tribes, four our would a huge sacrifice. I added that unlike the Courts, even a weak Somali army with few thousand of soldiers could have slowed down their advance for months. Watching these tribal skirmishes convinces me more than ever that a genuine Somali leader could unite the country with one single division of mechanized army. Second, the Sool arrangement with Somaliland had always been a tribal agreement that allowed the locals to control Laascaanood especially for those who had grievances with Puntland. In 2007, when Somaliland allied militia of Xaabsade took over the city, it was purely a tribal militia of Xaabsade moving from Puntland to Somaliland. Rayaale and Siilaanyo both understood the gentlemen's agreement that kept Laascaanood nominally within the Somaliland system without aggravating the tribal connections of the Harti( Beentii lagu wada joogay iyo maamuladii lagu sugayey Soomalia ayuu run mooday) Now The " Gaas Dhagoole" Biixi shows up without understanding the issue. After 911, the neoconservatives had pushed America to wage so many wars to different parts of the world that the average American never heard of. The typical American in Kansas or Montana have no clue were Kosovo, Somalia or Yemen is in the globe. The same analogy could be said about the North Gabiley and west Hargeisa based Muuse Biixi about Taleex or Lasanod. A man who had grown in the Hargeisa ghetto doesn't know culture and history just like Farmaajo and company in Mogadishu. In 1912, a British colonel by the name of Richard Corfield was put in charge of the Somaliland Camel Constabulary. He was instructed to maintain order but was clearly told not to confront Sayid Mohamed C. Hassan's Darwiish army. He disobeyed the order and launched an attack which resulted the death of his army and the capture and decapitation of Corfield. Those of us who went to highschool memorize those famous poems by the Sayid: Adaa koofilow jiitayoon dunida Joogayne Jahanamo la geeyoow Haddaad Aakhiro u Jihaado. You have died , Corfield and no longer in this world A Merciless journey was your portion. When hell destined, you set out for the other world. It is very strange that a hundred year after the struggle of the Darawiish, young and poor Somalis from Hargeisa, Borama and Burco have been forced to following the footsteps of the former colonial officers or to recreate the old colonial order where thousands paid the ultimate price. Muuse knew very well that it was tribal animosity and pride that destroyed Somalia, and when he attacks his opponents, he never misses a chance to belittle others , yet he walked to the tribal minefield of Tukaraq like a blind man. Mercenaries and paid ministers from Sool region , sipping tea in Maansuur Hotel, gave him the wrong information. The people of Sool always considered those who worked in Hargeisa like people taking care of their family through that system while Somalia is in upheaval ( Waxa la dhihi jiray waa niman caruurtooda ka Biilanaya nidaamka Hargeisa). They were probably sidelined or blindsided by the octogenerain Cali. Kh. Galaydh who wanted to take their place without doing any heavy lifting. The Biixi adventure of going to the colonial border had unleashed a great deal of trauma among the Sool people which became the catalyst for their temporary unity. Elders had openly rejected when their Hargeisa based ministers came to town, and in return the ministers called the RRU to shoot , arrest ans intimidate those who opposed the presence of Somaliland. As we speak, the Sool community Garads and elders had spoken unanimously against the presence of Somaliland soldiers. The internal problems of Sool community is not over. At the moment the tide is against Somaliland, yet pushing out Somaliland from Sool without any plans might not resolve the problem. The only sustainable strategy to end the recurring conflict and disable both Somaliland and Puntland is to help the Sool people to form their own administration. Somalis are tribes and we must understand that without unifying common state no tribe would refer the other for their affaires. The Garaad community might share lineage with Puntland, yet the only way to unite them is to be independent. The federal government can not ignore these problems for ever. They must understand that what is at stake here is not about Puntland or Somaliland but unity and the independence of Somalia through the people of Sool region. We know that Farmaajo and company are working overtime to get another term in office without accomplishing their duties toward the unity file. If these drastic actions are not taken, another deadly civil war might start between the locals. Do not expect any solutions from the likes of Cali Khaliif. If his Khaatumo project failed he supposed to come back and retire or offer an opportunity for others to find solutions. Finally, Mr. Biixi has one option. He must withdraw to his original position or lose everything including Somaliland. Forget about going to the border or capturing Garoowe. Everyone knows that if you lose Laascaanod, Somalialnd itself might implode, and the least of it is losing power. Digging your heels in the mounting pressure from the Sool community will be futile. Mr. Biixi seek peace and withdraw .

Ninyahow I welcome the badly needed food delivery to the coastal people. My suspicion is why send empty planes only to deliver from local warehouses. They are able to send cargo planes with food , shelter equipment and medicine. besides, the UAE are the same people killing people in Yemen, Syria , Palestine and Libya. Just like the Americans I divide the world between good and evil, and for me the UAE is the evil incarnate of our time. furthermore , as a SOmali irredentist, if I get my way, I would have crushed both the two enclaves.