By the way, our OO was advising Illey to stick until last man and then blame Oromo on every thing. If he listened to us, we could all had a peaceful transfer.

There was looting of banks and businesses, and also the burning of a church in Jijiga, the Somali regional capital. The Federal army is occupying the city while Illey is holed up at the Liyuu Police headquarters with thousands of loyal armed men. The main question is how did we get here. . In order for smooth transition, the Abiy government was supposed to remove Illey quietly and transfer power orderly until an inclusive election takes place. There are two reports that is coming from Jijiga. On the first view, A human right campaigner who fought with the Illey government and recorded his atrocities told me this morning that Illey was summoned to appear in Addis tribunal investigating the crimes he committed with the help of TPLF security apparatus. Illey refused and claimed that every thing he did was coordinated with the TPLF military and intelligence. Just like America used to use dictators for their benefit and then throwing him to the wolfs at the end. Saddam Huseen, Shah of Iran and others are examples. As usual, the TPLF who used him for over a decade have decided to make him the only culprit or they do not want to allow him to spill the beans and tell the world how the TPLF operated. Mengistu Hailemaruim who murdered more people than anyone in Africa was exiled for the benefit of the Ethiopian peaceful and orderly transition in 1991.The question is why Abiy is destabilizing the Somali region at this time while he had a lot of options to use?. Why wait until the last minute?. It is either the weakness of the current political order or the usual suspects---America, UAE and others ---advising him to visit chaos another region inhabited by Somalis. Some people believe that the new gas deposits worth 30 trillion cubic of natural gas could trigger the gulf boys to delay another ten years and fuel another civil in yet another Somali state. We are all tired of the usual blame Oromo first of the Somalis while failing to adjust the new order. Cabdi Illey had murdered thousands of Oromo throughout the years and they would wish his disappearance , but the issue is squarely on Illey and the Addis power who want to weaken the Somali order. Almost all Hydrocarbon deposits (Natural gas and oil) in Ethiopia are in the Somali region. On the second report, it is all about a despot who failed to create a leadership that could have created a peaceful transition. Like most depots , Illey had only surrounded himself with followers who can't comprehend the seriousness of the matter. He had plenty of time to realize the wave of change and transfer the power peacefully. Invoking article 39 as the Titanic goes down is useless. In this scenario, Illey were told to vacate the power and come to Addis. So far, we do not know who is supposed to replace him while his parliament and government was preparing to invoke article 39. AS soon as the parliament tried to use article 39, Abiy and the army had moved in and Illey tried to use his LIyuu police to confront them. Illey is also causing instability in the heart land which might became a full fledged insurgency. In order to keep the peace and order, the Abiy government must keep the Liyuu police , the local security and order that exists and transfer power to one of the cabinet members until an election or an inclusive parliament is convened. Any other option to give power like Ahmed Chalebi of Iraq style will lead to civil war and chaos. The disbanding of the Iraqi army destroyed the change of peace in that country after the American neocons disbanded 400,000 Iraqi force. The same thing happened in 1991, when Cumar Carte disbanded the Somali army and transferred authority to tribal rebels. A similar scenario could take place if Abiy disbands the security and local orders in the Somali region. The unrealistic idea of disbanding the 50,000 strong Liyuu police will create instant instability and Somali tribes vying to control their territory while Ethiopia is in disarray. WE must all celebratory the demise of the despot, but we must also watch the new developments. A quick power transfer is a must while keeping the current order in it's place. In 1991, Cali Mahdi was elected in Djibouti while the rebel leader Mohamed F. Caydiid was chasing Siyad Barre. That quick move to install a non rebel man triggered the MOgadishu civil war. Crowning a no body from the conference of the elders in Dire Dawa will cause more or worst case scenario.

Put it simply, the ONLF are the proud Somalis of our time that refused to surrender. I have met their members and they are anti colonials of our fathers.

The headline talks about a future election in Ethiopia and the Kilil which is not due until 2020. Whenever elections take place the ONLF will be one of the contestants. They the ONLF and others know that the name of the Somali Galbred will be the “ the Somali regional government “ within Ethiopia or Somali Galbeed if it becomes independent. The Dire Dawa conference is organized by former members of the Cabdi Illey party , elders controlled by politicians and others who will not have any effect on the short term outcome of the zone. At the moment ,the ONLF or others can’t take the power as outsiders , just like the armed Ethiopian opposition ,The Gimbot 7 , Oromo Liberation Front and others. They are allowed to participate the process democratically and ONLF is not different. The best option in this transition time will be for Cabdi Illey to finish his term which ends with one and half year or his Vice President to finish the term and prepare for the elections while keeping the institutions and the security apparatus intact. If things disintegrated, the Somali fiasco of 1991 will be child’s play , because the Somali Zone is diverse and difficult to keep to gather. Also few tribes hasve an exclusive zone to make their own region like Puntland, Somaliland or other tribal homelands of Somalia. There are a lot of unknown. In terms of ONLF, there is no otherSomali group or entity that has any plans for the future questions of the Somali Galbred. Last weekend I did participate a conference by the Local branch including a delegation that just came back from Asmara and their minimum requirement was a future referendum and total control of their government before that date. Their first priority is total independence. the biggest advantage for the Somalis is that the region had never mixed with the larger Ethiopian system. Other than the name which could be changed , the ONLF by far represent the distinction of the Somalis refused to bow down and quit. Despite the hardships and oppression they suffered , they never gave up. Somalis from Hargrisa, Garoowe, Kismaayo and Mudug had surrounded to the Ethiopian pressure. Even Farmaajo joined in August of 2017, and since that faithful day his star is declining and he might not even recover for ever from the Qalbi Dhagax fiasco. Folks, despite their name , they have taken to themselves the duty of every Somali to join the librarian of their land from the Abyssinian colonial yoke. Unlike other , they were not fighting other Somalis which gives them a place in the table. Hating the OG community will not resolve the issue, they are integral part of Somali Galbeed. I was a fervent opposition of Illey and the system in Jijiga ,but the alternative is a total chaos. The transition period must be implemented like a fragile child that can slip anytime. Further more , all other Kilils in Ethiopia are going slowly to the changes. Mr. Abiy was member of the EPRDF until few months ago, including those who are running the Oromo Kilil where thousands are killed by the TPLF order. The Somali Kilil must be kept intact , and power transfer can only come through elections. No Shir Beeled led by outsiders will fix the Somali problem. Cumar Ghelle was the architect of the failed Somali conferences and the best advisor of Meles Zenawi for 20 years. Folks, the Somali Galbeed issue will be resolved in Jijiga and within the country. Besides, no one can determine the outcome of future elections, and non of you guys have any clue the make up the Somali population in the Kilil.

Djibouti and despot Ghelle cannot dictate whom Somalia must make deal. The sanctions weren’t not imposed on Eritre because of Djibouti border disputes, it was about Ethiopia and his opposition to the intervention in Somalia. Asiasas had demanded for years that Somalia to be left alone. The fat dictator is making money from the instability of Somalia and the false war on terror. He brought China, USA. Germany, Japan, Spain, France and other to make money and sell the ports as cash cow. With stable Somalia these navies and other must leave the horn. Peace is coming in the horn and if things go back as before Djibouti will probably cost less in terms of life for its habitants. Do you guys have any idea life in Djibouti for the ordinary people? It is the most expensive island in the world. Couple of hundred oligarchs control everything. Water is scarce , electricity is more than ones salary and a thousand dollars might not be even enough for a middle class family. Djibouti is a colony for the benefit of those who run it not for the people. Farmaajo has big issues, especially the security that is worsening in Mogadishu, but Djibouti is not one of them.

I think that is probably the old Ethiopian flag which Amhara want. The Oromia flag has tree in the middle

If The Liyuu police is a Somali force it is now or never. They must defend the Somalipublic. Cabdi Illey must warm the federal government to stop or will declare articles 39 and remove the Somali region. The Tigray strong man Debrestion held a rally in Mekele and warned of break up if the old guard of Amhara tries to meddle the Kilil Sysco. If Illey can’t defend the people , he must transfer power to his deputy president to chart a new strategy to protect the Somali state borders and people.

This not done for FArmaajo but for the Somali people. It is people to people relationship

OO, you should know better. You do not send 150,000 soldiers to defend a small village " Badame" at the border. No Ethiopian army would allow 80,000 causality to defend a border post. The idea was to overwhelm the Eritrean defense line and take back Eritrea and the ports. It is clear to us. Furthermore, you keep talking about dictatorship. The dictators of the horn were not that much different than Afwork. Djibouti, Sudan Uganda and Ethiopia have and had dictators including Meles who ruled for 21 years with iron fist. Without the war on terror and over 10 billion dollars of aid Ethiopia under Meles could have exploded earlier than many believe. My point is we have a deep connection with Eritrea since we both struggled against a colonial project of Ethiopia, Italy and others. In fact the people of Eritrea know this. You are probably learned recent history in Wikipedia , but the Eritrean war on independence would not have been possible without weapons, training and logistical help from the Somali state of seventies and eighties. That is why the people have lined up in the streets.

Folks, the man was invaded just five years after the independence of 1993. He fought back and defeated Meles and the Ethiopian army. He has survived a twenty years crippling sanctions and isolation. The other option was to surrender to Ethiopia and give up the hard fought independence. THe guy never had a chance to develop and prosper. The Eritrean by far are most ingenious in the Ethiopian region. Before the war , the speed of the development was was strong. They even established truck assembly plants. With the sanctions and isolation, the country barely survived through hard work and the taxation of the diaspora. That is what nations do in tough times..In Eritrea, you work hard or you will not survive. It is not like Somali where 80% are unemployed , yet chew QAt and enjoy life. Life is tough, but they are free unlike us. I had once employed a couple of Somalis who spent time in Eritrea and by far they were the most hard working people compared to those who transited in Kenya ,and the gulf. They were given work permit and must unload ships to live or else.

Circa 2010 before sanctions isolated, I ask an Eritrean acquaintance about life in the country and development. He said , the train from Massawa to Asmara was built and maintained by the people and the biggest transformation is the countryside. He said electricity , roads and water has reached the rural people, but those in the coffeeshops in Asmara were unhappy about freedom. Even the Maxakamado members who were staying there in 2008 were shocked how clean the city and streets were. Compare that to the " Jamuuriyada Faalsada Ah" Ololaha Nadaafadu ma dhamaado tan iyo sideetankii.

He doesn't fear any military coup to remove him. More than half of his army is in Mogadishu to protect the Somali leader. They are eating Ugali n Mogadishu stadium.

Very smart and creative people. "Somaliyeey Sanado badan baad silic ku noolayd, soo dhawoow" Long live the proud people of Eritrea.

Since Somalis are by nature, " Keligood Suldaan" it might lead to anarchy. Anarchy is the worst thing in this day and age. A false suldaan or Ugaas that has done nothing for thirty years will not decide the issue. It will be anong Somali stakeholders , ONLF and others to decide. In the meantime , Illey should keep the order.

Muxuu yidhi, " Maxaad igaga Faan Faani, beriba waan halaabiye". A good man spoke and here we have the worst of all.

OO, everyone knows that killing the engineer doesn't stop the project. It is the message it sends. thousands have demonstrated in Addis to mourn the man , and this kind of incidents waken Abiy. By the way, are you guys laying law these days or are you up to something?. I have seen some reports abouts weapons and cash being captured in and around Addis. Who is moving these arms to major cities?

Look OO, Abiy doesn't want any confrontation with the neighbors in his transition. If Sisi bombs the Dam, he will not face tough sanctions. Sisi, With the coalition of Egypt, UAE, Israel and others , Abiy should fly under the radar at this early juncture. There are more than 20 million northern communities who have historic connections with Eritrea. Eritrea has huge mining and tourism industry that could be exploited by Ethiopia. For Djibouti, no matter how many trade revenue the government earns, the people remains one of the poorest in the region. Even the employees of the port are foreigners. Djibouti gained influence and business because the Somali region and state is unstable. They haven't even seen any real competition yet. Peace in the region and trade among the people is the greatest threat for your in law dictator Gheele.

We have seen this kind of conferences in Somalia in the nineties and after. THere is always some foreign government behind the scene. It must be a well thought conference by Somalis.

I was for a change , but not one with mob rule. I do not support a vagabond groups sipping tea in Addis and corrupt elders controlled by outside forces to convene a fake Shir. It has to be a smooth transition. Illey can stay for now.

When a bomb exploded in pro Abiy Ahmed rally, I pointed the finger to the new order trying to purge the Tplf. Now, this new killing is done to undermine Abiy Ahmed and make him an Egyptian and gulf stooge. Last week, Mr. Abiy said that the Gerd Dam is more political than economic, and he added that it will take ten more years to finish. Then the Engineer is dead. Certainly the TPLF is hard drive . If Abiy survives 2018, he will might rule a decade.

OO, reported already

There are too many groups trying to take advantage of the political change in Somali galbeed. So many entities with no credible organization behind them are trying to become the front runners. The so called Dire Dawa conference could not be held as planned for many reasons. 1-The date was too soon . You can't organize and invite all stakeholders just one week before the July 30 date. 2-There is no planning behind this conference. 3-ONLF and other stakeholders are out of the country to participate. 4- Their rush to hold premature Shir is tantamount to power grab that must be rejected. No conference must take place until Somali in Somali Galbeed agree some of the agenda that is planned before any hastily organized Shir. Also, Cabdi Illey must cancel the one Organized iN Jijijga. ONLF and others must organize an all inclusive well thought Shir that is aimed for the future not for the power.

Most of the bloody conflicts in Somaliland is orchestrated in Hargeisa and west of Hargeisa. Maxaa la yidhi reer Galbeedku waa midi jeefta. I hope when they say Reer Galbeed, they mean Xaaji Xanjuf not my neck of the woods.